Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.6#347
Expected Predictive Rating-12.9#336
Pace63.3#326
Improvement-2.2#315

Offense
Total Offense-7.5#349
First Shot-3.5#272
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#351
Layup/Dunks-0.4#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#152
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#257
Freethrows-1.1#239
Improvement-1.1#274

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#311
First Shot-3.4#294
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#238
Layups/Dunks+1.4#121
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#86
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#344
Freethrows-0.3#204
Improvement-1.0#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 2.9% 5.9% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 11.7% 20.8% 7.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 26.5% 14.0% 32.4%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Away) - 32.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 48 - 139 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 135 @Duquesne L 63-83 7%     0 - 1 -15.3 -8.2 -6.9
  Sat, Nov 8 349 @Binghamton W 67-59 39%     1 - 1 -0.8 -3.8 +3.8
  Mon, Nov 10 355 Delaware St. W 68-57 68%     2 - 1 -5.5 +2.4 -6.0
  Mon, Nov 17 321 @Le Moyne L 68-74 30%     2 - 2 -12.2 -8.7 -3.7
  Fri, Nov 21 3 @Duke L 42-100 0.3%    2 - 3 -33.1 -15.1 -22.6
  Sat, Nov 22 315 Howard L 70-80 38%     2 - 4 -18.5 -11.3 -6.4
  Sat, Nov 29 313 Detroit Mercy L 66-70 49%     2 - 5 -15.4 -8.4 -7.3
  Fri, Dec 5 161 @Siena L 54-83 10%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -26.3 -12.8 -15.5
  Sun, Dec 7 329 @St. Peter's L 62-67 32%    
  Sat, Dec 13 359 @Morgan St. L 70-71 48%    
  Mon, Dec 15 43 @Virginia Commonwealth L 56-82 1%    
  Fri, Jan 2 255 Sacred Heart L 72-75 39%    
  Sun, Jan 4 294 Fairfield L 68-69 47%    
  Fri, Jan 9 174 @Iona L 66-79 11%    
  Sun, Jan 11 310 @Manhattan L 68-74 28%    
  Wed, Jan 14 353 @Canisius L 63-65 45%    
  Mon, Jan 19 307 Mount St. Mary's L 67-68 49%    
  Thu, Jan 22 294 @Fairfield L 65-72 26%    
  Sat, Jan 24 255 @Sacred Heart L 69-78 21%    
  Fri, Jan 30 161 Siena L 61-69 23%    
  Sun, Feb 1 159 Marist L 57-65 23%    
  Tue, Feb 3 353 Canisius W 66-62 66%    
  Sat, Feb 7 154 @Quinnipiac L 64-79 10%    
  Fri, Feb 13 310 Manhattan L 71-72 48%    
  Sun, Feb 15 174 Iona L 69-76 26%    
  Fri, Feb 20 307 @Mount St. Mary's L 64-71 28%    
  Sun, Feb 22 335 @Rider L 64-68 36%    
  Fri, Feb 27 154 Quinnipiac L 67-76 22%    
  Sun, Mar 1 277 Merrimack L 64-66 42%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 3.0 5th
6th 0.2 1.1 2.0 1.1 0.1 4.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.1 1.9 0.4 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.8 0.5 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.6 3.8 0.9 0.1 10.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 5.0 5.1 1.5 0.1 13.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.5 5.7 2.1 0.2 16.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.8 5.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 17.6 12th
13th 0.5 1.9 4.2 5.2 4.0 1.4 0.2 17.4 13th
Total 0.5 2.0 4.8 8.6 12.1 14.0 14.3 13.3 10.6 8.1 5.4 3.3 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 38.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 3.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 3.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 0.9% 4.2% 4.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-8 1.7% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.1 1.6
11-9 3.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 3.2
10-10 5.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.4
9-11 8.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.0
8-12 10.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.5
7-13 13.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.3
6-14 14.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.3
5-15 14.0% 14.0
4-16 12.1% 12.1
3-17 8.6% 8.6
2-18 4.8% 4.8
1-19 2.0% 2.0
0-20 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%