Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.1#316
Expected Predictive Rating-10.2#325
Pace62.4#329
Improvement+0.3#172

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#285
First Shot+0.3#164
After Offensive Rebound-4.3#356
Layup/Dunks-2.1#263
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#263
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#41
Freethrows-1.2#265
Improvement-1.9#293

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#319
First Shot-7.7#355
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#18
Layups/Dunks-0.2#170
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.7#362
Freethrows+0.4#150
Improvement+2.1#76
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.6% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.8% 2.8% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 3.5% 10.6% 2.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.7% 5.7% 17.6%
First Four0.9% 1.5% 0.7%
First Round0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Merrimack (Away) - 15.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 410 - 1311 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 15   @ Michigan St. L 60-96 1%     0 - 1 -16.6 -3.1 -13.2
  Nov 10, 2024 323   @ Detroit Mercy L 78-84 OT 44%     0 - 2 -13.5 -1.3 -11.8
  Nov 19, 2024 312   @ Bowling Green L 68-76 38%     0 - 3 -14.1 -0.4 -14.6
  Nov 21, 2024 148   @ Kent St. L 73-76 12%     0 - 4 +0.4 +10.9 -10.7
  Nov 29, 2024 313   Binghamton W 65-62 49%     1 - 4 -5.8 -3.8 -1.5
  Nov 30, 2024 281   @ Lafayette L 47-59 32%     1 - 5 -16.2 -23.1 +6.1
  Dec 01, 2024 327   LIU Brooklyn W 60-52 54%     2 - 5 -2.2 -5.2 +4.1
  Dec 06, 2024 246   Siena W 69-68 44%     3 - 5 1 - 0 -6.6 +5.2 -11.6
  Dec 08, 2024 198   Merrimack L 62-80 32%     3 - 6 1 - 1 -22.2 +6.3 -33.0
  Dec 14, 2024 336   St. Francis (PA) W 69-66 68%     4 - 6 -11.0 -2.6 -8.0
  Dec 21, 2024 95   @ St. Bonaventure L 52-71 7%     4 - 7 -11.2 -12.5 -0.4
  Dec 29, 2024 355   Le Moyne W 88-69 74%     5 - 7 +3.1 +3.6 -1.0
  Jan 05, 2025 260   @ Mount St. Mary's L 62-68 28%     5 - 8 1 - 2 -9.1 -12.6 +3.7
  Jan 10, 2025 272   St. Peter's W 70-60 48%     6 - 8 2 - 2 +1.3 +2.9 -0.8
  Jan 12, 2025 303   Rider L 65-68 55%     6 - 9 2 - 3 -13.5 -5.9 -7.9
  Jan 16, 2025 326   @ Fairfield L 66-70 44%     6 - 10 2 - 4 -11.7 -5.4 -6.7
  Jan 18, 2025 271   @ Manhattan L 65-72 30%     6 - 11 2 - 5 -10.7 -0.7 -11.2
  Jan 23, 2025 211   Marist L 65-67 OT 35%     6 - 12 2 - 6 -7.1 -2.2 -5.1
  Jan 25, 2025 288   Sacred Heart L 77-86 51%     6 - 13 2 - 7 -18.4 +3.8 -22.9
  Jan 31, 2025 352   @ Canisius W 64-63 56%     7 - 13 3 - 7 -9.5 -10.5 +1.0
  Feb 06, 2025 198   @ Merrimack L 59-69 16%    
  Feb 08, 2025 187   @ Quinnipiac L 66-76 16%    
  Feb 12, 2025 352   Canisius W 73-67 74%    
  Feb 14, 2025 260   Mount St. Mary's L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 21, 2025 246   @ Siena L 64-70 25%    
  Feb 23, 2025 211   @ Marist L 59-68 19%    
  Feb 28, 2025 256   Iona L 67-68 47%    
  Mar 02, 2025 271   Manhattan L 72-73 50%    
  Mar 06, 2025 272   @ St. Peter's L 59-64 29%    
  Mar 08, 2025 303   @ Rider L 65-69 34%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 1.3 0.1 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.5 4.3 2.8 0.1 7.6 8th
9th 0.2 4.4 7.4 0.9 12.8 9th
10th 0.2 3.9 10.7 3.1 0.1 17.9 10th
11th 0.1 3.8 12.0 7.0 0.2 23.1 11th
12th 0.3 3.8 10.9 7.5 1.0 23.6 12th
13th 1.1 3.1 2.0 0.3 6.5 13th
Total 1.4 7.0 16.9 24.0 23.6 15.7 7.9 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 0.6% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
10-10 2.8% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.1 2.7
9-11 7.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 7.8
8-12 15.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 15.3
7-13 23.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 23.4
6-14 24.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 23.9
5-15 16.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.9
4-16 7.0% 7.0
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.9 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%