Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
187 Quinnipiac 24.6%   16   12 - 9 9 - 2 18 - 12 15 - 5 -1.3      -3.1 252 +1.7 129 76.6 19 -1.2 189 +3.1 2
198 Merrimack 22.8%   12 - 10 9 - 2 18 - 13 15 - 5 -1.7      -4.6 296 +2.9 95 63.3 310 -0.5 178 +2.0 3
211 Marist 18.9%   16 - 3 9 - 1 22 - 7 15 - 5 -2.6      -5.0 306 +2.3 109 62.4 330 +2.5 130 +5.2 1
246 Siena 6.3%   10 - 12 5 - 6 15 - 16 10 - 10 -5.1      -3.3 261 -1.8 226 65.6 251 -4.5 238 -6.3 6
256 Iona 6.2%   9 - 13 6 - 5 14 - 17 11 - 9 -5.5      -5.8 323 +0.3 158 71.0 104 -6.7 274 -5.8 5
260 Mount St. Mary's 6.8%   12 - 9 6 - 5 17 - 13 11 - 9 -5.6      -4.4 293 -1.2 211 69.5 145 -2.1 204 -4.3 4
271 Manhattan 4.7%   9 - 10 5 - 6 14 - 14 10 - 10 -6.2      -0.9 200 -5.3 326 69.8 137 -6.0 263 -6.8 8
272 St. Peter's 3.0%   6 - 11 2 - 8 11 - 16 7 - 13 -6.2      -7.3 344 +1.1 143 59.7 356 -7.4 286 -13.5 12
288 Sacred Heart 3.4%   8 - 12 5 - 5 13 - 17 10 - 10 -7.0      -2.0 231 -4.9 315 73.0 66 -7.6 289 -6.7 7
303 Rider 1.8%   8 - 14 4 - 7 12 - 19 8 - 12 -8.0      -3.8 275 -4.2 297 63.7 301 -7.7 292 -9.3 10
316 Niagara 0.9%   7 - 13 3 - 7 11 - 19 7 - 13 -9.1      -4.0 285 -5.1 319 62.4 329 -10.2 325 -11.9 11
326 Fairfield 0.7%   7 - 14 4 - 7 10 - 20 7 - 13 -10.2      -3.2 257 -7.0 349 65.5 256 -8.4 304 -8.7 9
352 Canisius 0.0%   2 - 19 2 - 8 4 - 27 4 - 16 -13.0      -4.2 290 -8.8 360 65.2 263 -17.5 359 -15.1 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Quinnipiac 1.8 43.2 36.2 17.9 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Merrimack 2.0 40.0 28.9 27.7 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0
Marist 1.9 44.7 28.5 22.7 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.1
Siena 5.8 0.0 0.6 4.3 22.9 22.1 18.0 13.8 9.6 4.7 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.0
Iona 5.5 0.3 1.6 6.5 26.0 22.1 16.6 12.5 7.9 4.1 1.8 0.5 0.1
Mount St. Mary's 5.1 0.4 2.1 8.7 34.3 21.0 14.7 9.1 5.3 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1
Manhattan 6.5 0.0 0.4 2.5 14.8 17.6 17.8 16.4 13.4 9.1 4.9 2.1 0.9 0.1
St. Peter's 9.6 0.0 0.9 2.6 5.0 7.7 11.7 16.4 19.7 17.2 14.6 4.2
Sacred Heart 6.8 0.1 0.4 2.6 12.8 15.5 16.4 16.1 14.2 10.9 6.4 3.6 1.1 0.0
Rider 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.0 5.5 8.9 12.3 16.7 19.8 15.9 11.1 5.6 1.0
Niagara 10.3 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.2 7.6 12.8 17.9 23.1 23.6 6.5
Fairfield 9.7 0.0 1.0 2.2 4.3 6.8 10.8 14.9 19.5 22.4 16.0 2.1
Canisius 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.6 7.6 18.3 68.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Quinnipiac 15 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.6 7.6 16.4 25.2 26.5 16.3 4.7
Merrimack 15 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.4 9.7 18.8 27.0 23.6 12.9 3.6
Marist 15 - 5 0.1 0.2 1.0 3.8 9.5 16.9 23.1 21.9 15.4 7.0 1.3
Siena 10 - 10 0.1 0.7 2.8 8.2 17.6 23.7 23.6 15.7 6.6 1.3
Iona 11 - 9 0.3 2.0 6.8 15.7 22.2 23.9 17.9 8.0 2.7 0.4
Mount St. Mary's 11 - 9 0.2 1.4 4.8 11.4 19.2 24.2 20.8 12.6 4.6 0.8
Manhattan 10 - 10 0.3 2.0 6.2 14.5 21.4 22.9 18.1 10.5 3.8 0.5
St. Peter's 7 - 13 0.1 0.9 3.9 10.6 18.9 22.9 21.2 13.8 6.2 1.5 0.2
Sacred Heart 10 - 10 0.4 2.7 8.5 16.2 21.3 22.1 16.0 8.8 2.9 0.8 0.1
Rider 8 - 12 0.5 3.4 10.9 20.7 25.1 21.9 11.6 4.9 1.0 0.2
Niagara 7 - 13 1.4 7.0 16.9 24.0 23.6 15.7 7.9 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Fairfield 7 - 13 3.2 11.8 21.8 24.9 19.4 12.3 5.1 1.4 0.2 0.0
Canisius 4 - 16 10.9 24.1 28.0 20.6 11.0 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Quinnipiac 43.2% 23.5 16.2 3.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Merrimack 40.0% 24.5 11.9 3.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marist 44.7% 27.2 14.0 3.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Siena 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Iona 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 0.0% 0.0
St. Peter's
Sacred Heart 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rider 0.0% 0.0
Niagara
Fairfield
Canisius


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Quinnipiac 24.6% 24.6% 0.0% 16   0.1 1.0 3.7 11.2 8.6 75.4 0.0%
Merrimack 22.8% 22.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 3.0 10.7 8.5 77.2 0.0%
Marist 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.2 8.4 7.8 81.2 0.0%
Siena 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.4 93.7 0.0%
Iona 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 5.6 93.8 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.2 5.5 93.2 0.0%
Manhattan 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.9 95.4 0.0%
St. Peter's 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.6 97.0 0.0%
Sacred Heart 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.2 3.2 96.6 0.0%
Rider 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.8 98.2 0.0%
Niagara 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9 99.1 0.0%
Fairfield 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%
Canisius 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Quinnipiac 24.6% 2.2% 23.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 22.8% 2.2% 22.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 18.9% 2.4% 17.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 6.3% 2.2% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 6.2% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 6.8% 2.6% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 4.7% 2.6% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 3.0% 2.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 3.4% 2.5% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 87.7% 0.9 12.3 87.7
2nd Round 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0