Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
185 Siena 15.9%   1 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 13 - 7 -1.7      0.0 166 -1.7 218 65.1 280 +3.9 81 0.0 1
188 Marist 16.3%   16   0 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 11 13 - 7 -1.8      -4.6 311 +2.8 96 61.5 345 -1.7 286 0.0 1
213 Iona 13.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 8 -2.7      -1.5 215 -1.2 200 69.7 143 0.0 121 0.0 1
220 Quinnipiac 10.7%   0 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 14 12 - 8 -3.4      -2.3 235 -1.0 194 77.4 17 +8.5 24 0.0 1
235 Sacred Heart 10.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 11 - 9 -4.1      -0.7 184 -3.4 293 74.5 47 0.0 121 0.0 1
239 Manhattan 9.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 11 - 9 -4.3      -0.1 167 -4.2 314 68.6 181 0.0 121 0.0 1
253 Mount St. Mary's 7.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 11 - 9 -4.9      -3.6 283 -1.3 205 68.3 194 0.0 121 0.0 1
261 Merrimack 6.1%   0 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 18 10 - 10 -5.3      -5.7 334 +0.4 154 62.7 326 -12.7 346 0.0 1
300 Fairfield 3.5%   0 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 16 9 - 11 -7.5      -3.9 293 -3.5 298 65.4 264 -5.2 319 0.0 1
302 St. Peter's 3.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 11 -7.6      -6.4 344 -1.2 198 61.2 349 -5.4 320 0.0 1
314 Rider 2.3%   0 - 1 0 - 0 9 - 19 8 - 12 -8.5      -4.3 306 -4.2 312 63.2 315 +2.3 99 0.0 1
336 Niagara 1.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 13 -10.3      -5.6 330 -4.7 325 64.0 302 -6.2 325 0.0 1
351 Canisius 0.5%   0 - 1 0 - 0 8 - 22 6 - 14 -12.3      -6.1 341 -6.2 353 65.9 252 -0.8 279 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Siena 4.0 22.3 16.8 13.5 11.0 8.9 7.5 6.2 4.4 3.4 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.6
Marist 4.4 21.0 15.0 12.5 10.6 8.6 8.0 6.8 5.5 4.3 3.3 2.3 1.4 0.7
Iona 4.6 17.9 14.6 12.8 10.7 9.3 7.7 7.4 5.6 4.9 3.6 2.6 1.9 1.0
Quinnipiac 5.1 13.1 12.7 11.8 11.0 10.0 9.5 8.1 6.8 5.7 4.5 3.4 2.3 1.2
Sacred Heart 5.5 12.7 11.4 10.3 10.5 9.7 8.9 8.1 7.4 6.5 5.4 4.2 3.0 2.0
Manhattan 5.5 12.2 11.4 10.4 10.2 9.6 9.0 8.3 7.4 6.4 5.3 4.4 3.3 2.1
Mount St. Mary's 6.0 9.7 9.9 9.5 9.6 9.4 8.8 9.1 8.0 7.5 6.2 5.3 4.4 2.6
Merrimack 6.7 6.5 7.2 8.0 8.5 8.6 9.5 9.1 9.7 9.0 8.1 7.0 5.6 3.2
Fairfield 7.7 3.3 4.5 5.9 6.7 7.7 8.5 9.5 9.6 10.4 10.1 9.5 8.1 6.4
St. Peter's 8.0 3.0 3.9 4.9 6.0 7.1 7.9 8.8 9.9 11.0 10.5 10.9 9.7 6.5
Rider 8.6 1.9 2.8 3.7 4.7 5.6 6.5 8.2 9.5 10.4 11.8 12.7 12.7 9.5
Niagara 9.5 1.1 1.7 2.4 3.2 4.4 5.2 6.3 7.8 9.6 11.7 14.0 15.8 16.9
Canisius 10.5 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.4 3.2 4.5 5.6 8.0 10.6 14.3 18.9 28.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Siena 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.7 2.8 3.9 5.8 7.5 9.2 10.9 11.8 11.5 10.8 8.9 7.0 4.3 2.0 0.5
Marist 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.4 4.4 6.6 8.6 9.2 10.7 11.0 10.9 10.2 8.1 6.1 3.8 1.6 0.6
Iona 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.5 4.0 5.3 7.0 8.4 9.8 10.6 11.2 10.6 9.4 7.6 5.4 3.1 1.5 0.4
Quinnipiac 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.3 4.5 6.4 8.4 9.6 11.0 11.4 10.6 10.0 8.1 5.7 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.2
Sacred Heart 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.8 5.8 7.1 9.0 9.3 10.5 10.7 9.5 8.9 7.3 5.3 3.6 2.4 0.9 0.3
Manhattan 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.9 4.1 5.5 7.5 8.6 9.7 10.3 10.6 10.1 8.5 7.3 5.1 3.5 2.1 0.9 0.2
Mount St. Mary's 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.6 5.2 6.6 8.4 9.3 9.9 10.4 9.8 9.2 7.8 6.2 4.6 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.1
Merrimack 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.2 4.7 6.6 8.2 9.4 10.6 10.7 10.2 9.6 7.7 5.8 4.8 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1
Fairfield 9 - 11 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.9 4.7 6.7 9.0 10.2 11.0 11.1 10.3 9.1 7.6 5.7 3.9 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 9 - 11 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.3 5.9 7.8 9.4 10.7 11.6 10.4 9.6 8.7 6.7 5.2 3.5 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Rider 8 - 12 0.3 1.3 3.0 5.3 7.4 9.3 11.0 11.3 11.4 10.2 8.3 6.9 5.3 3.8 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Niagara 7 - 13 0.8 2.8 5.1 7.7 10.0 11.1 12.0 10.8 10.2 8.3 6.9 5.2 3.7 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Canisius 6 - 14 1.8 5.0 8.6 11.6 13.0 12.8 11.7 10.1 8.0 5.9 4.4 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Siena 22.3% 15.1 5.5 1.4 0.3 0.1
Marist 21.0% 14.0 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Iona 17.9% 11.5 4.6 1.4 0.3 0.1
Quinnipiac 13.1% 8.3 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Sacred Heart 12.7% 8.1 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
Manhattan 12.2% 7.6 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 9.7% 5.9 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Merrimack 6.5% 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 3.3% 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 3.0% 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rider 1.9% 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1
Niagara 1.1% 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Canisius 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Siena 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.1 4.6 4.2 2.8 84.2 0.0%
Marist 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.9 4.5 4.3 3.6 83.7 0.0%
Iona 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 3.4 3.8 3.3 86.5 0.0%
Quinnipiac 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.9 3.1 2.5 89.3 0.0%
Sacred Heart 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.5 2.9 3.0 90.0 0.0%
Manhattan 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.2 3.0 2.9 90.7 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.4 2.5 92.4 0.0%
Merrimack 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.2 93.9 0.0%
Fairfield 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 96.5 0.0%
St. Peter's 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 96.8 0.0%
Rider 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 97.7 0.0%
Niagara 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 98.9 0.0%
Canisius 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Siena 15.9% 1.3% 15.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 16.3% 1.7% 16.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 13.5% 1.6% 13.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 10.7% 1.1% 10.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 10.0% 1.5% 10.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 9.3% 1.4% 9.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 7.6% 1.3% 7.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 6.1% 1.9% 6.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 3.5% 1.3% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 3.2% 1.1% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 2.3% 0.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 1.2% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 94.0% 1.0 6.0 88.7 5.3
2nd Round 4.3% 0.0 95.7 4.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0