Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
160 Marist 23.1%   15   11 - 7 6 - 4 -0.1      -5.7 318 +5.6 47 66.2 262 -1.9 203 -3.0 5
169 Siena 18.9%   14 - 7 7 - 3 -0.9      -0.8 186 -0.2 173 63.5 320 -1.4 193 -2.9 4
175 Quinnipiac 19.0%   13 - 7 7 - 3 -1.2      -1.9 224 +0.8 141 75.4 39 +1.4 139 -1.1 3
208 Merrimack 12.7%   12 - 9 8 - 2 -3.0      -2.8 249 -0.2 175 62.3 341 +0.1 162 +3.9 2
220 St. Peter's 11.1%   10 - 6 8 - 1 -3.5      -4.1 285 +0.6 148 64.3 303 -1.1 184 +5.5 1
227 Iona 7.3%   13 - 8 5 - 5 -3.8      -3.4 269 -0.4 183 74.4 49 -1.0 181 -5.8 6
270 Sacred Heart 2.7%   7 - 13 4 - 6 -6.1      -0.7 183 -5.4 326 71.2 113 -8.2 299 -9.0 9
274 Fairfield 2.7%   11 - 9 4 - 6 -6.2      -1.2 199 -5.1 319 68.4 198 -5.0 237 -10.3 10
288 Mount St. Mary's 1.7%   7 - 13 4 - 6 -7.3      -6.3 328 -1.0 207 70.1 152 -7.2 279 -7.0 7
327 Manhattan 0.4%   7 - 13 4 - 6 -10.4      -2.6 244 -7.8 355 70.4 143 -9.1 313 -8.3 8
344 Canisius 0.1%   7 - 12 3 - 6 -11.8      -8.3 353 -3.5 278 62.8 332 -8.5 308 -10.4 11
352 Niagara 0.1%   4 - 14 2 - 7 -12.8      -7.2 341 -5.5 330 59.5 364 -13.7 345 -12.7 12
354 Rider 0.0%   1 - 16 1 - 8 -13.1      -8.3 352 -4.8 310 64.0 312 -22.8 362 -16.6 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Jan 19 160 Marist 55 208 Merrimack 68   
Mon, Jan 19 327 Manhattan 92 175 Quinnipiac 98   
Mon, Jan 19 227 Iona 63 220 St. Peter's 77   
Mon, Jan 19 274 Fairfield 77 169 Siena 85   
Mon, Jan 19 288 Mount St. Mary's 68 352 Niagara 58   
Mon, Jan 19 354 Rider 85 270 Sacred Heart 105   
Thu, Jan 22 227 Iona 61 208 Merrimack 60   
Thu, Jan 22 160 Marist 50 169 Siena 69   
Thu, Jan 22 274 Fairfield 62 352 Niagara 61   
Thu, Jan 22 344 Canisius 66 270 Sacred Heart 69   
Thu, Jan 22 288 Mount St. Mary's 62 175 Quinnipiac 77   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 24 160 Marist 71 175 Quinnipiac 67 65%   
Sat, Jan 24 208 Merrimack 67 220 St. Peter's 63 63%   
Sat, Jan 24 227 Iona 84 327 Manhattan 74 82%   
Sat, Jan 24 344 Canisius 66 274 Fairfield 74 79%   
Sat, Jan 24 288 Mount St. Mary's 72 354 Rider 63 80%   
Sat, Jan 24 352 Niagara 66 270 Sacred Heart 76 82%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Marist 3.3 17.5 20.0 19.4 18.3 14.7 6.8 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Siena 3.1 22.3 19.7 18.4 16.6 13.1 7.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 2.7 28.2 25.2 19.8 13.5 8.6 3.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Merrimack 2.5 36.3 21.6 16.2 12.2 8.2 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
St. Peter's 2.7 33.8 20.8 16.2 12.8 9.4 4.7 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Iona 5.3 1.8 4.8 8.3 14.5 21.1 27.5 13.0 5.5 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Sacred Heart 7.7 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.2 5.3 12.6 24.9 22.7 16.3 10.2 3.8 0.8 0.1
Fairfield 8.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.8 9.2 17.7 21.2 21.9 15.5 6.9 1.5 0.1
Mount St. Mary's 7.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.7 7.0 15.0 25.8 23.6 13.8 7.0 3.0 0.8 0.1
Manhattan 9.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 5.0 10.4 16.8 22.6 23.2 13.7 5.0 1.0
Canisius 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.3 7.0 12.8 19.4 29.9 19.5 6.5
Niagara 11.4 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.6 5.8 11.6 23.3 35.3 20.2
Rider 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 5.5 13.3 28.1 49.9

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Marist 13 - 7 18 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.5 8.9 17.0 23.9 24.2 15.8 5.3
Siena 13 - 7 20 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.7 8.3 16.0 23.1 23.5 16.6 7.5 1.5
Quinnipiac 14 - 6 20 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.7 11.4 20.6 25.9 21.8 11.3 2.6
Merrimack 14 - 6 18 - 13 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.4 11.0 18.4 22.9 20.9 13.8 5.7 1.1
St. Peter's 14 - 6 16 - 11 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.7 12.0 19.0 21.6 19.2 12.3 5.7 1.7 0.3
Iona 11 - 9 19 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.7 3.0 7.9 16.7 23.1 24.0 16.1 7.0 1.3
Sacred Heart 9 - 11 12 - 18 0.1 0.8 4.3 10.9 19.7 24.3 20.9 12.5 5.0 1.4 0.1
Fairfield 8 - 12 15 - 15 0.4 2.4 8.9 16.8 22.1 22.0 15.6 8.1 3.0 0.6 0.1
Mount St. Mary's 9 - 11 12 - 18 0.0 0.6 3.0 9.0 17.3 23.9 22.7 14.7 6.9 1.8 0.2
Manhattan 8 - 12 11 - 19 1.3 6.7 15.9 22.7 22.8 16.6 9.3 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
Canisius 6 - 14 10 - 20 3.0 11.2 20.6 22.9 19.9 13.0 6.3 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Niagara 5 - 15 7 - 22 3.5 12.4 20.9 24.5 19.6 11.4 5.3 1.9 0.4 0.1
Rider 4 - 16 4 - 24 3.4 12.7 22.7 24.8 19.1 10.8 4.7 1.4 0.4 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Marist 17.5% 6.9 6.5 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
Siena 22.3% 10.4 7.5 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
Quinnipiac 28.2% 13.0 10.0 4.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
Merrimack 36.3% 19.9 11.0 4.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
St. Peter's 33.8% 19.0 9.9 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
Iona 1.8% 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Sacred Heart 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Manhattan
Canisius
Niagara
Rider


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Marist 23.1% 23.1% 0.0% 15   0.7 3.0 8.2 9.3 1.8 76.9 0.0%
Siena 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 0.2 1.4 6.2 9.0 2.1 81.1 0.0%
Quinnipiac 19.0% 19.0% 0.0% 0.4 2.8 7.8 7.1 0.9 81.0 0.0%
Merrimack 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.2 7.1 2.0 87.3 0.0%
St. Peter's 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.1 2.7 88.9 0.0%
Iona 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.9 1.7 92.7 0.0%
Sacred Heart 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 97.3 0.0%
Fairfield 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 97.3 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.5 98.3 0.0%
Manhattan 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Canisius 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Rider 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.1% 1.0 2.9 97.1
2nd Round 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Marist 23.1% 0.2% 23.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 18.9% 0.3% 18.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 19.0% 0.1% 19.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 12.7% 0.2% 12.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 11.1% 0.5% 10.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 7.3% 0.4% 7.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 2.7% 1.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 2.7% 0.9% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%