Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
154 Quinnipiac 24.0%   15   5 - 3 1 - 0 21 - 9 15 - 5 +0.1      -0.7 185 +0.8 141 77.3 33 +7.1 83 +17.0 1
159 Marist 22.2%   4 - 2 1 - 0 19 - 9 14 - 6 -0.3      -6.3 337 +6.0 36 65.1 298 -1.3 191 +4.1 4
161 Siena 20.9%   8 - 2 1 - 0 22 - 9 14 - 6 -0.3      -1.0 194 +0.7 144 64.6 306 +3.1 133 +0.6 6
174 Iona 16.5%   6 - 3 0 - 1 21 - 10 13 - 7 -1.2      +0.1 158 -1.2 208 77.8 28 +0.9 159 -18.1 9
255 Sacred Heart 5.6%   2 - 5 1 - 0 14 - 16 11 - 9 -5.4      +0.4 150 -5.7 342 74.5 64 -5.4 245 +10.1 2
277 Merrimack 3.2%   4 - 6 1 - 0 13 - 18 10 - 10 -6.4      -4.1 278 -2.3 246 63.6 324 -3.4 221 +1.7 5
294 Fairfield 2.1%   5 - 4 0 - 1 14 - 16 9 - 11 -7.5      -4.0 276 -3.5 287 70.3 167 -4.0 232 -20.4 12
307 Mount St. Mary's 1.5%   2 - 8 0 - 2 11 - 19 8 - 12 -8.1      -4.4 288 -3.7 298 68.3 216 -11.7 321 -20.4 11
310 Manhattan 1.8%   3 - 5 1 - 0 12 - 18 9 - 11 -8.2      -0.6 181 -7.6 357 68.6 211 -8.6 294 +4.7 3
329 St. Peter's 1.0%   3 - 4 1 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 12 -9.7      -6.0 334 -3.6 292 63.9 321 -9.2 297 -0.8 7
335 Rider 0.7%   0 - 6 0 - 1 7 - 21 7 - 13 -10.5      -6.6 342 -3.9 306 67.5 236 -23.2 365 -18.6 10
347 Niagara 0.4%   2 - 6 0 - 1 9 - 20 6 - 14 -11.6      -7.5 349 -4.0 311 63.3 326 -12.9 336 -12.5 8
353 Canisius 0.2%   3 - 5 0 - 1 8 - 22 5 - 15 -13.0      -7.9 355 -5.0 335 61.9 352 -9.0 296 -21.9 13




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 307 Mount St. Mary's 80 255 Sacred Heart 87   
Thu, Dec 4 277 Merrimack 68 335 Rider 66   
Fri, Dec 5 174 Iona 68 154 Quinnipiac 89   
Fri, Dec 5 294 Fairfield 66 310 Manhattan 70   
Fri, Dec 5 159 Marist 64 307 Mount St. Mary's 56   
Fri, Dec 5 353 Canisius 57 329 St. Peter's 69   
Fri, Dec 5 347 Niagara 54 161 Siena 83   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 174 Iona 85 255 Sacred Heart 84 55%   
Sun, Dec 7 294 Fairfield 68 277 Merrimack 72 65%   
Sun, Dec 7 310 Manhattan 63 159 Marist 74 85%   
Sun, Dec 7 347 Niagara 62 329 St. Peter's 67 68%   
Sun, Dec 7 154 Quinnipiac 81 335 Rider 67 89%   
Sun, Dec 7 353 Canisius 57 161 Siena 73 92%   
Tue, Dec 9 304 Bucknell 70 335 Rider 71 52%   
Wed, Dec 10 277 Merrimack 64 247 Princeton 69 67%   
Wed, Dec 10 295 Bryant 71 174 Iona 80 81%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Quinnipiac 2.4 38.8 24.9 15.0 9.9 5.3 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1
Marist 3.1 28.7 20.3 17.0 12.8 8.3 5.4 3.4 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0
Siena 2.8 29.6 23.0 17.2 12.9 7.9 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Iona 3.6 15.6 20.4 19.9 16.5 10.9 6.8 4.3 2.5 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1
Sacred Heart 5.3 6.3 9.1 12.0 14.2 15.4 13.1 10.2 7.3 4.8 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.6
Merrimack 6.7 2.2 4.1 6.2 10.0 12.4 13.8 13.3 11.4 9.6 7.8 5.1 2.8 1.2
Fairfield 7.7 0.9 2.0 3.5 6.6 9.0 11.8 12.9 13.4 12.4 10.0 8.4 5.7 3.5
Mount St. Mary's 8.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 5.1 8.3 10.8 12.5 13.4 12.9 11.7 9.5 7.1 4.5
Manhattan 7.3 1.3 2.9 4.7 7.6 10.4 12.7 13.6 12.5 11.2 9.2 6.9 4.5 2.4
St. Peter's 8.6 0.4 1.3 2.3 4.2 6.3 9.0 10.6 11.9 12.7 13.5 12.1 10.2 5.4
Rider 9.7 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.2 3.6 5.4 7.5 9.1 11.7 13.9 15.3 16.2 13.5
Niagara 10.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.0 4.4 6.8 8.2 10.7 13.3 16.0 17.6 17.4
Canisius 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.3 3.9 5.3 7.8 10.6 15.5 21.3 31.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Quinnipiac 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.3 4.2 6.9 10.0 13.7 15.8 16.0 13.6 9.6 4.5 1.1
Marist 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.6 6.7 9.9 12.2 13.8 14.1 13.5 10.1 6.0 2.7 0.8
Siena 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.6 6.5 9.2 12.3 14.6 15.5 14.1 10.8 6.3 2.9 0.6
Iona 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.6 6.0 9.0 12.9 14.4 15.8 13.9 11.2 6.0 2.9 0.7
Sacred Heart 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.9 9.7 12.3 12.9 14.0 12.0 9.5 6.9 4.0 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0
Merrimack 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.4 6.3 9.0 11.4 13.8 14.0 12.9 10.5 7.2 5.0 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fairfield 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.3 6.2 9.3 12.1 13.8 14.3 12.7 10.2 7.1 4.5 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 8 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 4.4 7.0 10.6 13.2 14.7 13.9 12.0 9.0 6.2 3.4 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
Manhattan 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.4 5.2 7.8 11.0 13.2 14.0 13.3 11.1 8.6 5.8 3.5 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 8 - 12 0.2 1.3 3.3 6.3 9.3 12.4 13.9 14.2 12.1 9.9 7.1 4.3 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Rider 7 - 13 0.3 1.5 3.8 7.4 10.4 13.2 13.9 13.7 12.3 8.6 6.5 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Niagara 6 - 14 0.5 2.0 4.8 8.6 12.1 14.0 14.3 13.3 10.6 8.1 5.4 3.3 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Canisius 5 - 15 1.4 4.8 9.4 12.8 15.7 15.2 13.6 10.2 7.2 4.9 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Quinnipiac 38.8% 26.6 9.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Marist 28.7% 19.4 7.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Siena 29.6% 19.4 7.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Iona 15.6% 8.4 5.3 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Sacred Heart 6.3% 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Merrimack 2.2% 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Fairfield 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
St. Peter's 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Rider 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Niagara 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Canisius 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Quinnipiac 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 6.5 8.6 5.8 1.2 76.0 0.0%
Marist 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.6 7.1 7.4 2.9 77.8 0.0%
Siena 20.9% 20.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 3.4 7.5 7.2 2.0 79.1 0.0%
Iona 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.1 6.8 2.6 83.5 0.0%
Sacred Heart 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.2 94.4 0.0%
Merrimack 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 96.8 0.0%
Fairfield 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 97.9 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.4 98.5 0.0%
Manhattan 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.5 98.2 0.0%
St. Peter's 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 99.0 0.0%
Rider 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%
Niagara 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Canisius 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Quinnipiac 24.0% 0.3% 23.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 22.2% 0.9% 21.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 20.9% 0.4% 20.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 16.5% 0.7% 16.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 5.6% 1.6% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 3.2% 1.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 2.1% 0.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 1.8% 1.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.2% 1.0 4.8 95.2
2nd Round 3.6% 0.0 96.5 3.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0