Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
192 Merrimack 26.8%   16   17 - 14 14 - 6 17 - 14 14 - 6 -1.6      -4.4 293 +2.8 98 63.2 309 -2.5 201 -2.0 2
204 Quinnipiac 23.2%   18 - 12 15 - 5 19 - 12 15 - 5 -2.4      -4.1 281 +1.7 120 78.3 11 -2.1 190 +0.2 1
235 Manhattan 13.6%   16 - 12 12 - 8 17 - 12 12 - 8 -4.0      +1.0 144 -5.1 316 68.5 165 -4.3 237 -4.1 4
254 Siena 0.0%   14 - 18 9 - 11 14 - 18 9 - 11 -5.0      -2.7 246 -2.3 237 67.1 209 -6.5 274 -7.7 9
255 Iona 9.5%   15 - 16 12 - 8 15 - 17 12 - 8 -5.1      -5.6 318 +0.5 162 70.5 115 -5.4 255 -4.2 6
259 Mount St. Mary's 9.8%   18 - 12 12 - 8 19 - 12 12 - 8 -5.4      -4.3 287 -1.1 206 68.8 154 -2.6 204 -4.2 5
266 Sacred Heart 4.9%   13 - 17 10 - 10 14 - 17 10 - 10 -5.7      -0.5 194 -5.2 320 73.9 50 -6.9 281 -6.3 7
267 Marist 8.2%   20 - 9 13 - 7 20 - 10 13 - 7 -5.9      -6.4 332 +0.6 160 61.5 343 -2.1 191 -3.0 3
287 St. Peter's 0.0%   11 - 16 7 - 13 11 - 16 7 - 13 -7.3      -7.9 346 +0.6 157 61.2 345 -7.4 285 -10.2 11
299 Rider 3.6%   14 - 18 9 - 11 14 - 19 9 - 11 -7.9      -3.0 249 -5.0 315 63.9 294 -6.5 277 -7.7 8
311 Niagara 0.0%   10 - 20 6 - 14 10 - 20 6 - 14 -9.0      -3.8 273 -5.3 322 63.4 307 -10.3 323 -11.3 12
325 Fairfield 0.5%   11 - 19 8 - 12 11 - 20 8 - 12 -9.8      -5.1 307 -4.7 308 65.2 263 -7.9 297 -7.9 10
356 Canisius 0.0%   3 - 28 3 - 17 3 - 28 3 - 17 -14.6      -5.1 305 -9.6 359 66.0 235 -17.1 357 -15.6 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Merrimack 2.0 100.0
Quinnipiac 1.0 100.0
Manhattan 4.0 100.0
Siena 8.0 100.0
Iona 4.0 100.0
Mount St. Mary's 4.0 100.0
Sacred Heart 7.0 100.0
Marist 3.0 100.0
St. Peter's 11.0 100.0
Rider 8.0 100.0
Niagara 12.0 100.0
Fairfield 10.0 100.0
Canisius 13.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Merrimack 14 - 6 100.0
Quinnipiac 15 - 5 100.0
Manhattan 12 - 8 100.0
Siena 9 - 11 100.0
Iona 12 - 8 100.0
Mount St. Mary's 12 - 8 100.0
Sacred Heart 10 - 10 100.0
Marist 13 - 7 100.0
St. Peter's 7 - 13 100.0
Rider 9 - 11 100.0
Niagara 6 - 14 100.0
Fairfield 8 - 12 100.0
Canisius 3 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Merrimack
Quinnipiac 100.0% 100.0
Manhattan
Siena
Iona
Mount St. Mary's
Sacred Heart
Marist
St. Peter's
Rider
Niagara
Fairfield
Canisius


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Merrimack 26.8% 26.8% 0.0% 16   0.0 2.2 14.1 10.5 73.2 0.0%
Quinnipiac 23.2% 23.2% 0.0% 0.7 9.9 12.6 76.8 0.0%
Manhattan 13.6% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0 2.3 11.2 86.5 0.0%
Siena 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Iona 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.4 9.1 90.5 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 8.7 90.2 0.0%
Sacred Heart 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 4.9 95.1 0.0%
Marist 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.9 6.2 91.9 0.0%
St. Peter's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rider 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 3.6 96.4 0.0%
Niagara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fairfield 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Canisius 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Merrimack 26.8% 1.6% 26.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 23.2% 2.5% 22.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 13.6% 4.4% 11.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 9.5% 6.1% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 9.8% 3.6% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 4.9% 4.6% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 8.2% 2.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 3.6% 3.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 85.0% 0.9 15.0 85.0
2nd Round 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0