Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -13.1 #354
Expected Predictive Rating -22.8 #362
Pace 64.0 #312
Improvement +2.1 #91

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #352 F C- D+ D- F
Defense #310 D- C F B+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #211 0.98 #348 -4.1 #314
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #11 0.73 #208 +4.5 #19
Three Pointers 29% #357 0.76 #364 -9.7 #361
1st FG Attempt 0.84 #362 -9.2 #362
Freethrows 14.7 #306 70% #272 10.3 #313
Second Chance 31.6% #154 0.92 #325 0.29 #235
Turnovers 18.1% #280
Total Offense -8.3 #352

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #5 1.16 #178 -5.5 #345
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #357 0.93 #358 +1.6 #75
Three Pointers 39% #246 1.12 #311 -0.9 #217
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #322 -4.8 #322
Freethrows 16.6 #149 63% #1 10.5 #48
Second Chance 32.0% #251 1.01 #128 0.32 #190
Turnovers 12.6% #352
Total Defense -4.8 #310

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.5% #347 3.2% #364
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -15.0% #358 5.9% #289
Possession Length 19.6 #350 16.5 #57
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #285 0.23 #338
Improvement +3.9 #16 -1.8 #290

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 68.4% 49.7% 73.2%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Away) - 20.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 60 - 12
Quad 44 - 134 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 16 @Virginia L 53 - 87 0% -17  0 - 1 -13 -5 D- D+ F -11 B- F F
 Wed, Nov 5 115 @Rutgers L 53 - 81 5% -14  0 - 2 -22 -14 F C F -10 D- D+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 38 @Texas L 65 - 99 1% -18  0 - 3 -18 -7 F D+ D+ -8 F A+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 4 @Houston L 45 - 91 0% -25  0 - 4 -21 -13 F C F -10 F A+ D
 Tue, Nov 25 364 Coppin St. L 65 - 68 82% +5  0 - 5 -26 -19 F F F -7 C- F C
 Thu, Dec 4 208 @Merrimack L 66 - 68 12% -1  0 - 6 0 - 1 -2 +2 D+ A+ F -4 F A- F
 Sun, Dec 7 175 @Quinnipiac L 58 - 72 9% -15  0 - 7 0 - 2 -12 -11 F D- F -1 B- D- F
 Tue, Dec 9 319 Bucknell L 38 - 51 49% -6  0 - 8 -26 -33 F F F +6 D A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 16 295 @Delaware L 57 - 65 21% -6  0 - 9 -13 -10 F A C- -3 C+ B F
 Mon, Dec 22 55 @Virginia Commonwealth L 79 - 100 2% -11  0 - 10 -8 +9 D A+ B+ -16 F F D
 Mon, Dec 29 327 Manhattan L 71 - 74 51% +2  0 - 11 0 - 3 -16 -6 F C+ D- -10 C F C
 Sun, Jan 4 169 Siena L 65 - 74 19% -7  0 - 12 0 - 4 -13 +2 C F A+ -16 C F B
 Fri, Jan 9 274 @Fairfield L 62 - 68 18% -8  0 - 13 0 - 5 -9 -7 D F D -3 A+ F F
 Sun, Jan 11 160 Marist L 49 - 71 17% -12  0 - 14 0 - 6 -25 -17 F F B- -9 F A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 227 Iona W 72 - 68 27% +7  1 - 14 1 - 6 -3 +9 C A+ C- -11 D B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 220 @St. Peter's L 58 - 69 12% -4  1 - 15 1 - 7 -12 -5 F B F -8 F F D-
 Mon, Jan 19 270 Sacred Heart L 85 - 105 35% -12  1 - 16 1 - 8 -29 -3 D- F A -25 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 288 @Mount St. Mary's L 63 - 72 20%
 Fri, Jan 30 327 @Manhattan L 70 - 76 29%
 Sun, Feb 1 220 St. Peter's L 62 - 69 27%
 Thu, Feb 5 160 @Marist L 55 - 71 7%
 Sat, Feb 7 208 Merrimack L 62 - 69 26%
 Fri, Feb 13 288 Mount St. Mary's L 66 - 69 40%
 Sun, Feb 15 270 @Sacred Heart L 68 - 78 18%
 Fri, Feb 20 344 Canisius W 65 - 63 57%
 Sun, Feb 22 352 Niagara W 65 - 62 60%
 Fri, Feb 27 227 @Iona L 65 - 77 13%
 Sun, Mar 1 169 @Siena L 59 - 74 8%
Totals 4 - 24 4 - 16 -13 -8 F C- D+ -5 D- C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.5 2.4 2.0 0.2 5.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.3 5.9 5.6 0.9 0.0 13.8 11th
12th 0.3 3.7 11.7 10.3 2.3 0.1 28.3 12th
13th 3.4 12.2 18.7 12.2 2.9 0.2 49.5 13th
Total 3.4 12.4 22.3 25.3 19.6 10.7 4.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 0.0
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11 0.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
8-12 1.5% 1.5
7-13 4.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.5
6-14 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.7
5-15 19.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.5
4-16 25.3% 25.3
3-17 22.3% 22.3
2-18 12.4% 12.4
1-19 3.4% 3.4
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.4%