Bucknell
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#251
Expected Predictive Rating-5.5#255
Pace69.3#154
Improvement-0.8#227

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#298
First Shot-3.2#271
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#269
Layup/Dunks+0.6#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#359
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
Freethrows-0.1#176
Improvement+3.2#33

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#191
First Shot+1.4#130
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#327
Layups/Dunks+2.2#89
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#302
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#280
Freethrows+3.1#20
Improvement-4.0#346
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.5% 15.8% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 39.6% 51.7% 23.1%
.500 or above in Conference 91.1% 96.8% 83.3%
Conference Champion 19.8% 31.0% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four9.6% 9.2% 10.1%
First Round9.9% 11.0% 8.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Home) - 57.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 415 - 1016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 232   @ Delaware W 85-73 36%     1 - 0 +10.4 -0.9 +10.0
  Nov 07, 2024 324   @ Southern Indiana W 75-69 OT 59%     2 - 0 -1.5 -4.1 +2.4
  Nov 09, 2024 22   @ Kentucky L 72-100 3%     2 - 1 -9.8 -4.3 -2.4
  Nov 13, 2024 260   Mount St. Mary's L 89-93 2OT 61%     2 - 2 -12.1 -2.3 -9.1
  Nov 16, 2024 220   Richmond W 80-76 2OT 52%     3 - 2 -1.7 -8.2 +5.7
  Nov 21, 2024 344   NJIT W 81-64 80%     4 - 2 +2.7 +4.5 -1.9
  Nov 23, 2024 303   Rider L 53-57 69%     4 - 3 -14.5 -17.6 +2.5
  Nov 27, 2024 16   @ Maryland L 67-91 2%     4 - 4 -4.8 -0.5 -2.8
  Nov 30, 2024 246   Siena L 58-71 49%     4 - 5 -18.1 -9.1 -10.7
  Dec 04, 2024 95   St. Bonaventure L 47-64 22%     4 - 6 -14.2 -20.8 +5.3
  Dec 08, 2024 204   @ Radford L 70-74 OT 29%     4 - 7 -3.6 -8.2 +4.7
  Dec 21, 2024 11   @ Gonzaga L 65-86 2%     4 - 8 -0.8 -6.8 +8.0
  Dec 28, 2024 104   @ Syracuse L 63-75 13%     4 - 9 -5.1 -8.6 +3.9
  Jan 02, 2025 267   @ Lehigh L 64-66 OT 43%     4 - 10 0 - 1 -5.5 -16.6 +11.3
  Jan 05, 2025 239   Colgate W 66-60 57%     5 - 10 1 - 1 -1.1 -5.2 +4.7
  Jan 08, 2025 281   Lafayette W 65-62 OT 65%     6 - 10 2 - 1 -6.2 -12.3 +6.0
  Jan 11, 2025 233   @ American L 58-68 36%     6 - 11 2 - 2 -11.7 -12.8 +0.4
  Jan 15, 2025 319   Holy Cross W 86-82 74%     7 - 11 3 - 2 -7.8 +9.9 -17.5
  Jan 18, 2025 263   Navy W 73-69 61%     8 - 11 4 - 2 -4.2 +1.3 -5.2
  Jan 20, 2025 239   @ Colgate L 80-87 38%     8 - 12 4 - 3 -9.1 +3.5 -12.5
  Jan 25, 2025 294   @ Boston University L 82-85 OT 48%     8 - 13 4 - 4 -7.8 +11.8 -19.7
  Jan 29, 2025 325   Loyola Maryland W 79-67 75%     9 - 13 5 - 4 -0.5 +4.2 -4.0
  Feb 01, 2025 263   @ Navy W 85-75 42%     10 - 13 6 - 4 +6.8 +9.3 -2.7
  Feb 05, 2025 233   American W 68-67 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 297   @ Army L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 12, 2025 294   Boston University W 66-62 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 281   @ Lafayette L 67-68 44%    
  Feb 17, 2025 267   Lehigh W 72-69 64%    
  Feb 23, 2025 297   Army W 73-68 69%    
  Feb 26, 2025 325   @ Loyola Maryland W 71-69 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 319   @ Holy Cross W 71-69 54%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.6 8.5 6.8 1.9 19.8 1st
2nd 0.1 4.4 14.2 9.6 2.0 0.1 30.3 2nd
3rd 1.3 10.4 6.4 0.5 18.5 3rd
4th 0.1 5.3 7.0 0.7 13.1 4th
5th 1.0 5.9 1.2 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 3.3 2.1 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.6 2.2 0.2 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 0.4 1.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.3 1.8 6.9 14.8 23.1 23.8 18.6 8.8 1.9 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 97.4% 1.9    1.6 0.3
13-5 77.2% 6.8    3.9 2.7 0.1
12-6 45.7% 8.5    2.5 4.3 1.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 10.8% 2.6    0.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1
10-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.8% 19.8 8.2 8.0 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.9% 29.5% 29.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 1.4
13-5 8.8% 19.5% 19.5% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.2 7.1
12-6 18.6% 19.0% 19.0% 15.9 0.4 3.2 15.1
11-7 23.8% 15.8% 15.8% 16.0 0.1 3.6 20.0
10-8 23.1% 12.6% 12.6% 16.0 2.9 20.2
9-9 14.8% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 1.6 13.2
8-10 6.9% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.4 6.5
7-11 1.8% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
6-12 0.3% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.4 13.0 85.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 14.8 1.8 19.3 71.9 7.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%