Bucknell
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.8 #319
Expected Predictive Rating -9.5 #318
Pace 68.2 #205
Improvement -3.6 #325

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #340 F F C- F C-
Defense #259 F D+ C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #352 1.05 #306 -6.7 #352
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #210 0.47 #364 -3.4 #332
Three Pointers 51% #18 0.93 #286 +3.0 #86
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #351 -7.1 #351
Freethrows 12.6 #354 73% #170 9.2 #347
Second Chance 22.6% #349 1.02 #203 0.23 #338
Turnovers 17.0% #217
Total Offense -7.2 #340

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #241 1.25 #291 -0.6 #198
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #184 0.89 #337 -1.0 #262
Three Pointers 43% #114 1.16 #338 -4.3 #327
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #342 -5.8 #339
Freethrows 17.4 #192 73% #203 12.8 #195
Second Chance 34.2% #313 1.06 #203 0.36 #283
Turnovers 16.7% #172
Total Defense -2.7 #259

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #242 -0.2% #145
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.2% #355 12.0% #352
Possession Length 18.7 #313 17.3 #181
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #353 0.16 #156
Improvement -1.8 #289 -1.8 #288

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.3% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.6% 1.2% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 23.2% 36.2% 14.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 18.8% 7.4% 26.5%
First Four2.4% 3.1% 1.9%
First Round1.4% 1.8% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Maryland (Away) - 40.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 411 - 1111 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 295 Delaware W 78 - 70 53% -4  1 - 0 -3 -0 F B+ F -2 A+ F C
 Fri, Nov 7 288 @Mount St. Mary's W 73 - 62 30% -1  2 - 0 +7 +6 B- F A+ +2 B- B+ B+
 Tue, Nov 11 214 @Princeton L 63 - 73 18% -12  2 - 1 -10 -8 D+ F F -3 D C- C+
 Fri, Nov 14 126 Hofstra L 77 - 83 20% -7  2 - 2 -7 -2 D+ A- F -4 F A+ C
 Mon, Nov 17 91 @Pittsburgh L 50 - 84 5% -20  2 - 3 -25 -16 F F F -12 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 18 @St. John's L 49 - 97 1% -21  2 - 4 -28 -18 F F F -6 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 129 Bowling Green L 66 - 71 14% -12  2 - 5 -3 -4 C- F F +1 C C- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 201 Buffalo L 71 - 73 24% -10  2 - 6 -5 +5 C+ C D -9 D- A+ D-
 Sun, Nov 30 187 Cornell L 72 - 101 31% -21  2 - 7 -34 -13 F C+ F -19 F F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 64 @Akron L 77 - 97 3% -16  2 - 8 -8 +8 C+ F A+ -17 F C+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 275 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 66 - 73 48% -4  2 - 9 -16 -8 F F D+ -9 F C A-
 Tue, Dec 9 354 @Rider W 51 - 38 51% +6  3 - 9 +3 -18 F F F +22 B- A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 23 Iowa L 39 - 94 2% -23  3 - 10 -39 -23 D+ F F -20 F F D+
 Wed, Dec 31 320 @Holy Cross L 58 - 65 39% -7  3 - 11 0 - 1 -14 -11 F F F -4 D- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 307 Lehigh W 72 - 65 56% -8  4 - 11 1 - 1 -4 -9 F B- C- +5 B F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 194 @Navy L 55 - 76 16% -16  4 - 12 1 - 2 -20 -12 F F F -10 F F A
 Sat, Jan 10 324 Loyola Maryland W 70 - 67 62% -9  5 - 12 2 - 2 -10 -9 F F F -1 F A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 314 Lafayette W 76 - 69 60% -6  6 - 12 3 - 2 -5 +3 A A- F -7 D- C C
 Sat, Jan 17 199 @Colgate L 76 - 95 17% -23  6 - 13 3 - 3 -19 +1 D- D D -19 F F D+
 Wed, Jan 21 333 Army L 84 - 87 OT 65% -10  6 - 14 3 - 4 -17 +2 C F C- -19 F D C+
 Sat, Jan 24 324 @Loyola Maryland L 72 - 75 40%
 Mon, Jan 26 314 @Lafayette L 68 - 72 37%
 Sat, Jan 31 285 Boston University W 71 - 70 51%
 Wed, Feb 4 224 @American L 66 - 75 19%
 Sat, Feb 7 199 Colgate L 70 - 74 34%
 Mon, Feb 9 194 Navy L 66 - 71 34%
 Sat, Feb 14 285 @Boston University L 68 - 74 29%
 Wed, Feb 18 224 American L 69 - 72 39%
 Sun, Feb 22 320 Holy Cross W 70 - 67 61%
 Wed, Feb 25 333 @Army L 72 - 74 42%
 Sat, Feb 28 307 @Lehigh L 68 - 72 34%
Totals 10 - 21 7 - 11 -10 -7 F F C- -3 F D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.1 3.9 0.9 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 6.8 5.7 1.0 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.3 6.3 8.3 1.4 0.0 16.4 6th
7th 0.1 3.7 9.6 2.5 0.1 16.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.8 8.7 4.4 0.2 15.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 6.4 5.2 0.5 13.4 9th
10th 0.9 3.6 3.5 0.7 8.6 10th
Total 0.9 4.8 11.8 18.6 21.6 19.1 12.6 6.7 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 42.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 7.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 7.1% 7.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.9% 9.1% 9.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9
11-7 2.8% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 0.2 2.6
10-8 6.7% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.4 6.3
9-9 12.6% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.7 11.9
8-10 19.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.5 18.6
7-11 21.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 21.3
6-12 18.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 18.4
5-13 11.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.7
4-14 4.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.8
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 16.0 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%