Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#117
Expected Predictive Rating+3.3#125
Pace70.6#151
Improvement-0.6#224

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#189
First Shot+1.4#133
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#326
Layup/Dunks+2.9#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#192
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#235
Freethrows+0.4#143
Improvement-1.3#272

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#67
First Shot+2.7#91
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#74
Layups/Dunks+1.3#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#185
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#79
Freethrows-1.6#288
Improvement+0.6#133
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.5% 15.6% 10.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 12.8
.500 or above 97.2% 99.1% 94.6%
.500 or above in Conference 93.7% 97.2% 89.0%
Conference Champion 16.6% 23.0% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round13.5% 15.6% 10.6%
Second Round1.5% 2.0% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Home) - 57.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 21 - 32 - 3
Quad 35 - 57 - 8
Quad 412 - 119 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 255 Texas St. W 83-48 86%     1 - 0 +26.8 +7.1 +19.4
  Sun, Nov 9 312 Le Moyne W 83-60 91%     2 - 0 +11.2 +0.4 +10.6
  Sat, Nov 15 140 @Davidson L 87-91 45%     2 - 1 +0.4 +6.8 -6.0
  Wed, Nov 19 118 William & Mary L 74-82 62%     2 - 2 -7.9 -6.2 -0.8
  Mon, Nov 24 308 Bucknell W 71-66 86%     3 - 2 -3.4 -3.1 -0.2
  Wed, Nov 26 332 VMI W 81-48 89%     4 - 2 +22.7 +4.9 +19.4
  Mon, Dec 1 58 @Kansas St. W 82-66 20%     5 - 2 +27.9 +20.6 +8.8
  Sat, Dec 6 85 Utah Valley L 71-82 48%     5 - 3 -7.4 +0.0 -7.1
  Tue, Dec 16 336 Chicago St. W 76-55 93%     6 - 3 +7.3 -0.6 +8.8
  Sat, Dec 20 189 @Ohio W 68-58 58%     7 - 3 1 - 0 +11.1 -2.5 +14.0
  Tue, Dec 30 106 Miami (OH) W 77-75 57%    
  Sat, Jan 3 164 @Massachusetts W 74-73 52%    
  Tue, Jan 6 124 @Kent St. L 77-79 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 59 Akron L 80-83 40%    
  Sat, Jan 17 216 Eastern Michigan W 74-64 81%    
  Tue, Jan 20 280 @Western Michigan W 77-70 73%    
  Sat, Jan 24 170 @Toledo W 77-76 54%    
  Tue, Jan 27 196 Buffalo W 78-69 78%    
  Sat, Jan 31 323 @Central Michigan W 76-66 82%    
  Tue, Feb 3 306 Ball St. W 75-61 91%    
  Wed, Feb 11 328 @Northern Illinois W 79-69 82%    
  Sat, Feb 14 170 Toledo W 80-73 73%    
  Tue, Feb 17 124 Kent St. W 80-76 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 106 @Miami (OH) L 74-78 35%    
  Tue, Feb 24 280 Western Michigan W 80-67 87%    
  Sat, Feb 28 164 Massachusetts W 77-70 72%    
  Fri, Mar 6 216 @Eastern Michigan W 71-67 63%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.5 5.3 4.4 2.0 0.5 16.6 1st
2nd 0.4 2.8 8.0 9.0 4.4 0.9 0.0 25.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.8 7.8 6.3 1.7 0.1 19.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 6.1 4.7 1.1 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.5 3.5 0.6 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.6 0.6 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.4 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.5 6.2 10.0 13.2 16.0 16.3 14.2 9.9 5.4 2.0 0.5 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 98.4% 2.0    1.7 0.3
16-2 82.8% 4.4    3.2 1.2 0.0
15-3 54.0% 5.3    2.7 2.3 0.3
14-4 24.5% 3.5    1.0 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.1% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 9.1 5.8 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 43.7% 43.0% 0.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.3%
17-1 2.0% 32.7% 32.7% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.4
16-2 5.4% 27.7% 27.7% 11.9 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.9
15-3 9.9% 23.7% 23.7% 12.2 0.2 1.5 0.7 0.0 7.5
14-4 14.2% 19.3% 19.3% 12.5 0.1 1.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.5
13-5 16.3% 14.3% 14.3% 12.7 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 13.9
12-6 16.0% 10.6% 10.6% 13.0 0.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 14.3
11-7 13.2% 8.4% 8.4% 13.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 12.1
10-8 10.0% 5.5% 5.5% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 9.5
9-9 6.2% 4.1% 4.1% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.0
8-10 3.5% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.4
7-11 1.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 1.7
6-12 0.8% 0.8
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 5.6 5.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 86.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.0 3.4 5.2 3.4 19.0 24.1 34.5 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 2.6% 11.0 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%