Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#119
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#123
Pace71.0#143
Improvement+0.0#187

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#169
First Shot+2.8#102
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#333
Layup/Dunks+1.0#147
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#150
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#150
Freethrows+0.4#160
Improvement+0.5#142

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#79
First Shot+2.5#96
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#133
Layups/Dunks-0.7#201
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#121
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#53
Freethrows-1.8#289
Improvement-0.5#230
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.5% 14.7% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.3 12.8
.500 or above 95.1% 98.0% 92.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.0% 91.5% 86.3%
Conference Champion 13.9% 16.8% 10.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round12.5% 14.7% 10.1%
Second Round1.8% 2.3% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 51.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 32 - 3
Quad 35 - 57 - 8
Quad 412 - 219 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 232 Texas St. W 83-48 83%     1 - 0 +27.8 +7.8 +19.7
  Sun, Nov 9 321 Le Moyne W 83-60 92%     2 - 0 +10.8 -0.2 +10.9
  Sat, Nov 15 137 @Davidson L 87-91 44%     2 - 1 +0.6 +6.5 -5.4
  Wed, Nov 19 118 William & Mary L 74-82 61%     2 - 2 -7.8 -5.9 -1.0
  Mon, Nov 24 304 Bucknell W 71-66 85%     3 - 2 -2.9 -4.4 +1.6
  Wed, Nov 26 337 VMI W 81-48 90%     4 - 2 +22.0 +6.3 +17.4
  Mon, Dec 1 71 @Kansas St. W 82-66 23%     5 - 2 +26.8 +20.0 +8.2
  Sat, Dec 6 90 Utah Valley W 72-71 51%    
  Tue, Dec 16 350 Chicago St. W 83-65 95%    
  Sat, Dec 20 194 @Ohio W 78-75 59%    
  Tue, Dec 30 127 Miami (OH) W 78-74 62%    
  Sat, Jan 3 175 @Massachusetts W 75-74 55%    
  Tue, Jan 6 122 @Kent St. L 78-81 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 54 Akron L 80-83 37%    
  Sat, Jan 17 203 Eastern Michigan W 74-65 79%    
  Tue, Jan 20 267 @Western Michigan W 76-70 71%    
  Sat, Jan 24 173 @Toledo W 77-76 54%    
  Tue, Jan 27 215 Buffalo W 78-69 81%    
  Sat, Jan 31 309 @Central Michigan W 76-68 77%    
  Tue, Feb 3 316 Ball St. W 77-62 90%    
  Wed, Feb 11 330 @Northern Illinois W 80-70 81%    
  Sat, Feb 14 173 Toledo W 80-73 74%    
  Tue, Feb 17 122 Kent St. W 81-78 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 127 @Miami (OH) L 75-77 41%    
  Tue, Feb 24 267 Western Michigan W 79-67 86%    
  Sat, Feb 28 175 Massachusetts W 78-71 74%    
  Fri, Mar 6 203 @Eastern Michigan W 71-68 60%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.1 4.0 1.9 0.5 13.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.3 7.2 8.1 4.1 1.0 0.1 24.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 7.5 5.1 1.4 0.2 18.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.0 5.9 3.6 0.7 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 5.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.1 5.1 7.8 11.4 13.4 14.8 13.8 12.1 8.3 5.0 1.9 0.5 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 97.0% 1.9    1.6 0.3
16-2 79.3% 4.0    2.8 1.2 0.0
15-3 48.9% 4.1    2.0 1.8 0.2
14-4 22.0% 2.7    0.9 1.3 0.4 0.1
13-5 5.8% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.9% 13.9 7.8 4.9 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 50.7% 47.8% 2.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 5.6%
17-1 1.9% 33.9% 33.6% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.3 0.5%
16-2 5.0% 30.0% 29.9% 0.1% 11.8 0.4 1.0 0.1 3.5 0.2%
15-3 8.3% 25.0% 25.0% 12.1 0.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 6.2
14-4 12.1% 18.1% 18.1% 12.4 0.1 1.3 0.7 0.1 9.9
13-5 13.8% 14.3% 14.3% 12.6 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 11.8
12-6 14.8% 10.5% 10.5% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 13.2
11-7 13.4% 7.9% 7.9% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 12.4
10-8 11.4% 6.7% 6.7% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 10.6
9-9 7.8% 4.6% 4.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.5
8-10 5.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.0
7-11 3.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 3.1
6-12 1.6% 1.6
5-13 0.8% 0.8
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2 5.4 3.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 87.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 9.1 4.3 4.3 6.4 19.1 27.7 12.8 21.3 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 8.0% 10.0 8.0