Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.6#312
Expected Predictive Rating-10.5#327
Pace71.2#99
Improvement-2.7#301

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#276
First Shot+0.2#166
After Offensive Rebound-4.0#352
Layup/Dunks-0.6#207
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#116
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#176
Freethrows-0.3#193
Improvement-1.3#267

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#310
First Shot-5.7#338
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#108
Layups/Dunks-3.4#303
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#254
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#249
Freethrows-0.4#213
Improvement-1.4#259
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 5.5% 7.1% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.6% 7.7% 32.2%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Home) - 71.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 71 - 9
Quad 48 - 1110 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 248   @ Southern Miss L 68-77 28%     0 - 1 -11.7 -7.7 -3.4
  Nov 08, 2024 126   Davidson L 85-91 22%     0 - 2 -6.4 +2.9 -8.8
  Nov 16, 2024 15   @ Michigan St. L 72-86 1%     0 - 3 +5.4 +8.6 -3.0
  Nov 19, 2024 316   Niagara W 76-68 62%     1 - 3 -3.6 +5.7 -8.4
  Nov 23, 2024 356   @ Bellarmine L 68-80 59%     1 - 4 -23.0 -11.9 -11.5
  Nov 29, 2024 286   Weber St. L 70-73 43%     1 - 5 -9.8 -7.0 -2.8
  Nov 30, 2024 166   New Mexico St. W 61-60 21%     2 - 5 +1.0 -7.3 +8.3
  Dec 07, 2024 329   Morgan St. W 102-81 67%     3 - 5 +8.0 +12.0 -5.8
  Dec 14, 2024 235   @ UMKC L 77-85 26%     3 - 6 -9.8 +9.0 -19.2
  Dec 21, 2024 119   St. Thomas L 68-93 21%     3 - 7 -25.1 -15.8 -6.4
  Jan 03, 2025 100   Akron L 68-71 16%     3 - 8 0 - 1 -0.8 -7.3 +6.7
  Jan 07, 2025 306   @ Western Michigan W 83-79 40%     4 - 8 1 - 1 -1.9 +8.7 -10.5
  Jan 11, 2025 255   @ Ball St. L 69-91 29%     4 - 9 1 - 2 -25.0 -10.4 -13.6
  Jan 14, 2025 342   Buffalo W 79-61 71%     5 - 9 2 - 2 +3.7 +0.3 +3.5
  Jan 18, 2025 300   Eastern Michigan L 62-68 56%     5 - 10 2 - 3 -16.2 -15.3 -1.1
  Jan 21, 2025 173   @ Miami (OH) L 76-84 16%     5 - 11 2 - 4 -5.9 +0.3 -5.9
  Jan 24, 2025 201   Toledo L 71-84 34%     5 - 12 2 - 5 -17.4 -8.9 -8.4
  Jan 28, 2025 148   @ Kent St. L 57-75 13%     5 - 13 2 - 6 -14.6 -5.5 -10.7
  Feb 01, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan L 71-90 23%     5 - 14 2 - 7 -20.0 +4.8 -26.2
  Feb 04, 2025 338   Northern Illinois W 78-72 72%    
  Feb 08, 2025 309   Coastal Carolina W 71-69 61%    
  Feb 11, 2025 168   Ohio L 75-81 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 342   @ Buffalo W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 18, 2025 148   Kent St. L 65-72 26%    
  Feb 22, 2025 201   @ Toledo L 77-86 19%    
  Feb 25, 2025 300   @ Eastern Michigan L 75-78 36%    
  Mar 01, 2025 255   Ball St. L 75-76 50%    
  Mar 04, 2025 338   @ Northern Illinois W 75-74 51%    
  Mar 07, 2025 306   Western Michigan W 76-74 61%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.5 2.8 5th
6th 0.4 3.2 1.6 0.1 5.2 6th
7th 0.4 4.4 5.0 0.6 10.4 7th
8th 0.1 4.5 9.1 2.0 0.0 15.7 8th
9th 0.0 3.1 11.4 5.1 0.2 19.8 9th
10th 0.0 3.6 13.3 8.1 0.7 0.0 25.6 10th
11th 1.3 7.1 4.8 0.3 0.0 13.5 11th
12th 0.6 3.1 2.2 0.2 0.0 6.1 12th
Total 0.6 4.4 12.9 21.4 24.6 19.7 11.0 4.2 1.2 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 1.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 1.2
9-9 4.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 4.1
8-10 11.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.9
7-11 19.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 19.6
6-12 24.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 24.6
5-13 21.4% 21.4
4-14 12.9% 12.9
3-15 4.4% 4.4
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%