Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.0 #129
Expected Predictive Rating +1.7 #133
Pace 70.3 #147
Improvement -2.7 #304

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #151 C+ D B- B A-
Defense #118 C+ B B+ D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% #6 1.13 #210 +5.3 #29
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #271 0.80 #113 -1.2 #234
Three Pointers 35% #310 1.09 #85 -1.9 #253
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #117 +2.2 #115
Freethrows 19.4 #87 73% #186 14.2 #93
Second Chance 29.9% #204 0.88 #348 0.26 #291
Turnovers 15.1% #92
Total Offense +0.4 #151

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #193 1.15 #176 +0.1 #174
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #302 0.76 #180 +1.5 #79
Three Pointers 45% #69 0.94 #85 -0.4 #196
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #142 +1.2 #142
Freethrows 18.9 #273 75% #298 14.3 #298
Second Chance 27.9% #88 1.00 #115 0.28 #79
Turnovers 19.2% #48
Total Defense +1.6 #118

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.6% #34 1.1% #270
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.6% #154 -3.4% #117
Possession Length 17.7 #213 16.9 #105
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #24 0.16 #147
Improvement +0.1 #173 -2.8 #326

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 10.3% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.0
.500 or above 97.6% 99.4% 95.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 98.8% 92.2%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.8% 10.3% 7.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Away) - 48.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 35 - 66 - 10
Quad 412 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 263 Texas St. W 83 - 48 84% +13  1 - 0 +26 +7 A+ F B- +19 A- A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 278 Le Moyne W 83 - 60 86% +6  2 - 0 +13 +5 B F A+ +9 B+ B A+
 Sat, Nov 15 137 @Davidson L 87 - 91 41% -9  2 - 1 +1 +8 C- B A+ -7 F A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 138 William & Mary L 74 - 82 64% -9  2 - 2 -10 -6 F B- D- -3 C- C+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 319 Bucknell W 71 - 66 86% +12  3 - 2 -5 -3 D- D- F -1 D- B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 349 VMI W 81 - 48 91% +22  4 - 2 +21 +5 A- C F +17 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 1 85 @Kansas St. W 82 - 66 22% +9  5 - 2 +26 +21 A+ A+ A+ +7 A+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 107 Utah Valley L 71 - 82 53% -10  5 - 3 -10 -2 D C B- -7 F A+ A
 Tue, Dec 16 357 Chicago St. W 76 - 55 95% +11  6 - 3 +4 -2 C+ F A+ +6 A+ B C
 Sat, Dec 20 196 @Ohio W 68 - 58 55% +9  7 - 3 1 - 0 +11 -3 D D+ F +14 A+ C A+
 Tue, Dec 30 89 Miami (OH) L 83 - 93 45% -13  7 - 4 1 - 1 -7 +3 C+ D+ C -9 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 176 @Massachusetts W 101 - 100 OT 51% +0  8 - 4 2 - 1 +3 +10 A F A+ -8 F B A-
 Tue, Jan 6 148 @Kent St. L 93 - 96 43% -2  8 - 5 2 - 2 +1 +19 B A+ A- -18 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 64 Akron L 67 - 77 36% -11  8 - 6 2 - 3 -4 -9 C F D- +5 A+ A- A
 Sat, Jan 17 198 Eastern Michigan W 85 - 79 77% +6  9 - 6 3 - 3 +0 +16 A+ C B- -15 F C D-
 Tue, Jan 20 260 @Western Michigan W 72 - 54 67% +10  10 - 6 4 - 3 +16 +0 C F B- +16 A+ A A+
 Sat, Jan 24 166 @Toledo L 78 - 79 49%
 Tue, Jan 27 201 Buffalo W 80 - 72 76%
 Sat, Jan 31 322 @Central Michigan W 78 - 69 80%
 Tue, Feb 3 296 Ball St. W 77 - 64 89%
 Sat, Feb 7 145 @Arkansas St. L 79 - 81 43%
 Wed, Feb 11 318 @Northern Illinois W 78 - 69 79%
 Sat, Feb 14 166 Toledo W 81 - 75 70%
 Tue, Feb 17 148 Kent St. W 84 - 80 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 89 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 83 24%
 Tue, Feb 24 260 Western Michigan W 81 - 71 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 176 Massachusetts W 80 - 74 71%
 Fri, Mar 6 198 @Eastern Michigan W 72 - 70 56%
Totals 18 - 10 11 - 7 +2 +0 C+ D B- +2 C+ B B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.7 0.8 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 7.2 16.5 14.2 4.9 0.4 44.0 3rd
4th 0.4 5.7 11.6 6.2 0.9 0.0 24.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.5 6.3 2.9 0.3 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.7 1.7 0.1 6.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 1.5 0.1 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.0 3.3 8.3 14.6 21.9 23.6 17.4 8.0 1.7 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 29.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 5.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.7% 20.2% 20.2% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.4
14-4 8.0% 13.4% 13.4% 12.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 6.9
13-5 17.4% 12.1% 12.1% 12.5 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.2 15.3
12-6 23.6% 9.9% 9.9% 12.8 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 21.2
11-7 21.9% 7.6% 7.6% 13.2 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.0 20.2
10-8 14.6% 6.3% 6.3% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 13.7
9-9 8.3% 3.6% 3.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.0
8-10 3.3% 2.4% 2.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
7-11 1.0% 1.0
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 12.8 91.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.4 63.4 34.1 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%