Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.2 141
Expected Predictive Rating +0.7 148
Pace 77.1 19
Improvement +1.4 127

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #143 C- B D- C+ B-
Defense C #156 C B- D+ C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 175 59% 156 +0.4 164
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 294 34% 311 -2.8 314
Three Pointers 46% 69 32% 254 +1.5 127
1st FG Attempt 1.00 203 -0.9 204
Second Chance 37.5% 22 1.01 196 0.38 56
Turnovers 19.7% 330
Freethrows 0.32 142 74% 111 0.24 123
Total Offense +0.8 143

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 224 61% 275 -0.4 192
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 138 39% 215 -0.6 233
Three Pointers 41% 171 33% 133 +0.5 164
1st FG Attempt 1.03 200 -0.6 199
Second Chance 26.5% 48 1.05 230 0.28 87
Turnovers 15.5% 262
Freethrows 0.33 276 71% 124 0.24 258
Total Defense +0.4 156

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.7 87 -0.2 124
Shot Type Accuracy -1.6 227 +0.8 213
Possession Length 15.2 20 17.5 219
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 123 0.18 203
Improvement -0.6 #223 +2.0 #78

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15% 18% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 99% 100% 97%
Conference Champion 3% 4% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round15% 18% 10%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Home) - 71.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 37 - 38 - 7
Quad 412 - 519 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 199 @Ohio W 89 - 85 53% -2  24% 1 - 0 C+ +4 B +7 C A+ F C- -3 F+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 7 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 90 28% -16  0% 1 - 1 F -18 F+ -9 F D+ D D- -7 C- F A
 Tue, Nov 11 179 @Missouri St. W 86 - 85 47% -7  15% 2 - 1 C+ +3 C +1 D B+ D C+ +2 C- B+ D
 Wed, Nov 19 40 @St. Mary's L 72 - 85 9% -7  4% 2 - 2 C+ +3 B +6 C A- C+ D+ -4 D+ D B
 Fri, Nov 21 37 @SMU L 69 - 100 8% -15  6% 2 - 3 D- -14 F -10 D- A+ F C +0 F+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 184 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 63 71% +7  86% 3 - 3 B- +6 D -5 C- D F A +11 A A B
 Fri, Nov 28 146 North Dakota St. W 85 - 80 OT 63% -1  43% 4 - 3 C+ +3 C- -2 D- B- A B +4 C+ A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 2 169 Texas Arlington W 83 - 63 68% +10  78% 5 - 3 A- +16 B +5 B C- D A +10 A+ D F+
 Sat, Dec 6 301 @Arkansas Little Rock W 90 - 78 73% +8  97% 6 - 3 B- +7 A- +10 C A- B D+ -4 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 220 @Rice L 76 - 77 55% +7  97% 6 - 4 C -1 C +0 B- D C C -1 C- B+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 234 @Texas St. W 89 - 70 59% +8  91% 7 - 4 1 - 0 A +18 A +12 A A+ F B +5 B C F+
 Sat, Dec 20 241 @Southern Miss W 93 - 86 60% +3  60% 8 - 4 2 - 0 B- +5 A+ +16 F+ A+ A F+ -11 F D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 222 James Madison L 74 - 78 76% +2  65% 8 - 5 2 - 1 D -10 D- -7 D D B- C- -3 F A- A-
 Wed, Jan 7 135 Troy W 86 - 74 60% +10  86% 9 - 5 3 - 1 B +11 C+ +3 B- A- F+ B+ +7 C+ A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 234 Texas St. W 83 - 82 78% +5  94% 10 - 5 4 - 1 D+ -6 C- -2 F+ C F+ D+ -4 D+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 15 191 @South Alabama L 87 - 91 OT 51% -0  44% 10 - 6 4 - 2 C- -3 C +1 C B- F D+ -4 C- B F
 Sat, Jan 17 135 @Troy L 74 - 99 37% -9  16% 10 - 7 4 - 3 F -20 B- +4 F+ A- A- F -25 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 274 @Georgia Southern W 85 - 68 67% +9  88% 11 - 7 5 - 3 B+ +14 C +1 A- F F A +12 A+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 24 276 @Georgia St. L 81 - 82 67% +3  64% 11 - 8 5 - 4 C- -4 B+ +9 A- C+ F F -13 F A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 253 Old Dominion L 71 - 75 81% -5  1% 11 - 9 5 - 5 D- -12 F -10 D D+ F C -1 C C+ D-
 Sat, Jan 31 164 Marshall L 61 - 70 67% -4  11% 11 - 10 5 - 6 D- -12 F -11 F C- D+ C- -2 C+ C C+
 Wed, Feb 4 238 @Coastal Carolina W 70 - 66 60% +0  46% 12 - 10 6 - 6 C+ +3 D -4 C D+ F B+ +7 C+ D A+
 Sat, Feb 7 158 Bowling Green W 91 - 54 67% +21  98% 13 - 10 A+ +34 A- +10 A+ A B- A+ +21 A+ A+ A
 Wed, Feb 11 356 Louisiana Monroe W 103 - 70 95% +15  99% 14 - 10 7 - 6 A- +15 A +13 B+ A C+ C+ +0 C C D+
 Sat, Feb 14 191 South Alabama W 76 - 70 71%
 Thu, Feb 19 290 @Louisiana W 74 - 68 71%
 Sat, Feb 21 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 89 - 76 88%
 Tue, Feb 24 241 Southern Miss W 82 - 73 80%
 Fri, Feb 27 290 Louisiana W 77 - 65 86%
Totals 18 - 11 11 - 7 +1 C +1 C- B D- C +0 C B- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C D D+ C- 39% 15% 46% B- C- B+ C B D- C+ B- C+ C D+ C C+ C- 37% 22% 41% C+ C B C- B- D+ D+ C+ C-
1.10 59% 34% 32% -2 +1 1.00 37% 1.0 .38 20% .32 74% .24 1.08 61% 39% 33% +1 0 1.03 26% 1.1 .28 16% .33 71% .23
Nov
3		 Ohio B F A+ C D+ 42% 4% 54% A C A- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C- D+ F C+ D- 41% 17% 42% D- F+ A A+ A+ D- C- B- C-
1.18 45% 100% 35% -2 +2 1.02 42% 1.6 .68 24% .49 89% .44 1.13 63% 70% 32% +6 +1 1.15 20% 0.6 .11 13% .34 68% .23
Nov
7		 Stephen F. Austin F+ F D- F F 41% 13% 46% B F D C+ D+ D A+ A- A+ D- A- F A- D+ 27% 29% 44% B- C- F F F A F A+ C-
0.88 42% 33% 19% -17 +1 0.70 25% 1.1 .28 19% .55 79% .43 1.22 47% 69% 29% +3 -2 1.04 49% 1.4 .67 19% .32 53% .17
Nov
11		 Missouri St. C B+ A F C- 19% 43% 38% F D B- B+ B+ D A A- A+ C+ F D+ B D+ 31% 31% 38% B C- A+ F+ B+ D F F F
1.08 70% 48% 25% +2 -4 0.96 36% 1.2 .44 20% .46 79% .36 1.07 75% 38% 30% +3 -2 1.04 21% 1.3 .27 15% .55 73% .40
Nov
19		 St. Mary's B D D+ D- D+ 47% 10% 43% A+ C A+ C- A- C+ C- A+ C+ D+ C A+ F C- 51% 19% 30% D D+ D D+ D B F B+ F
1.04 48% 33% 28% -9 +2 0.88 37% 0.9 .33 15% .22 85% .19 1.23 59% 13% 54% +5 +1 1.14 41% 1.2 .47 19% .59 76% .45
Nov
21		 SMU F B+ A+ F D- 31% 20% 49% C+ D- A+ B- A+ F A- C- B+ C F F D+ F 41% 27% 32% C F+ A- A+ A+ F A- A+ A+
0.86 67% 50% 17% -8 -1 0.86 54% 1.0 .54 40% .33 69% .23 1.25 81% 56% 38% +16 -1 1.33 31% 0.2 .05 10% .22 63% .14
Nov
24		 Jacksonville St. D D+ F C+ D+ 39% 8% 53% B+ C- D- C- D F A+ B- A+ A B+ F A+ A 38% 16% 46% B+ A C- A+ A B F B- F
1.01 53% 0% 35% -5 +2 0.96 22% 1.0 .22 22% .51 79% .40 0.86 47% 75% 17% -10 +1 0.84 31% 0.6 .18 20% .50 66% .33
Nov
28		 North Dakota St. C- D- F C+ F+ 37% 10% 53% B+ D- C- A B- A A- A+ A+ B A+ C F C+ 34% 23% 43% C- C+ A A+ A+ D+ F A- F
1.08 55% 17% 35% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 14% .33 91% .30 1.02 42% 38% 42% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.7 .18 15% .47 65% .30
Dec
2		 Texas Arlington B A+ B- F B+ 40% 28% 32% C B A F C- D A+ C+ A+ A B- A+ A+ A+ 45% 27% 29% B A+ C F D F+ F A+ C-
1.14 76% 40% 24% +3 -1 1.06 39% 0.7 .28 19% .50 72% .36 0.87 50% 23% 7% -19 0 0.63 36% 1.1 .40 17% .43 62% .26
Dec
6		 Arkansas Little Rock A- A+ F C- C 36% 7% 57% B- C B- A A- B F A+ F+ D+ F C F F 27% 38% 35% A- F A+ F A+ F D A C-
1.26 80% 25% 34% +7 +2 1.20 38% 1.2 .44 17% .15 100% .15 1.09 73% 33% 53% +12 -3 1.20 9% 1.3 .13 13% .27 59% .16
Dec
13		 Rice C A+ C+ F B 37% 33% 31% C- B- C+ F D C C F D C B- A+ F C 35% 25% 40% D- C- A C B+ F F+ B- D
1.10 83% 38% 27% +6 -2 1.10 34% 0.8 .26 16% .33 63% .21 1.12 53% 14% 45% -1 -1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 10% .37 65% .24
Dec
17		 Texas St. A B+ F A+ A 46% 13% 41% B- A A+ A+ A+ F B B- B B A- C+ B+ B+ 53% 28% 19% D B A F C F+ C- F+ D
1.23 67% 0% 53% +11 +1 1.26 44% 1.8 .80 26% .37 75% .28 0.97 47% 38% 27% -8 0 0.86 24% 1.1 .27 15% .29 83% .24
Dec
20		 Southern Miss A+ D+ F C F 43% 16% 41% B- F+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ F+ F C+ F F 28% 40% 32% A F B- F D+ D- F F F
1.30 52% 13% 35% -6 +1 0.92 43% 1.6 .70 13% .53 82% .43 1.20 71% 35% 44% +7 -3 1.10 28% 1.3 .34 15% .44 93% .41
Jan
3		 James Madison D- A F F D- 35% 17% 48% C D A- F D B- A- F C C- D- C- F F 45% 23% 32% C+ F B+ A A- A- F A F
1.04 68% 11% 27% -6 0 0.91 39% 0.6 .24 11% .43 59% .25 1.10 67% 36% 47% +10 0 1.21 24% 0.9 .21 21% .46 62% .29
Jan
7		 Troy C+ F A+ A- B 23% 19% 58% D+ B- B+ B A- F+ A+ A- A+ B+ F A+ D+ C- 30% 26% 44% A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D+ C+ A+ B+
1.14 45% 56% 39% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.2 .44 21% .49 76% .37 0.98 76% 13% 36% 0 -1 1.00 23% 0.7 .15 15% .28 61% .17
Jan
10		 Texas St. C- B F F F 43% 13% 44% C+ F+ A+ F C F+ A+ B+ A+ D+ F B+ A+ D 44% 35% 20% B- D+ A- F F B- D+ F D-
1.07 65% 14% 25% -6 +1 0.93 44% 0.6 .28 22% .53 78% .41 1.06 75% 32% 18% 0 -1 1.00 25% 1.9 .47 21% .31 84% .26
Jan
15		 South Alabama C B D D C- 25% 5% 69% B- C B C- B- F B- B+ B+ D+ D+ F A+ C 51% 9% 40% F C- A F B F F+ D- F
1.06 67% 33% 29% -3 +1 0.98 37% 1.1 .40 23% .24 80% .19 1.11 61% 67% 19% -5 +2 0.97 15% 1.5 .22 6% .39 70% .27
Jan
17		 Troy B- F A- B+ F 45% 12% 43% A- F+ B- A A- A- A F C+ F F F C- F 43% 2% 55% F+ F F F F F D- F F
1.11 32% 50% 38% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.3 .44 13% .38 55% .21 1.48 77% 100% 36% +11 +3 1.29 41% 1.5 .59 10% .35 90% .32
Jan
22		 Georgia Southern C D A+ A+ B+ 47% 8% 45% B A- D F F F B A A- A C+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 6% 51% D- A+ D- F+ F C+ F+ A- D+
1.14 54% 75% 43% +8 +2 1.22 31% 0.7 .22 23% .40 83% .33 0.91 52% 0% 11% -22 +2 0.62 33% 1.3 .42 16% .42 65% .27
Jan
24		 Georgia St. B+ C A+ C+ B 51% 6% 43% A A- A- D- C+ F B+ A+ A+ F A+ F F F 20% 26% 54% C+ F A+ A+ A+ F D- F F
1.20 58% 100% 35% +5 +3 1.17 41% 0.8 .34 21% .36 89% .32 1.22 40% 62% 44% +11 -2 1.20 13% 0.5 .07 10% .37 91% .33
Jan
28		 Old Dominion F A- F D+ D 32% 19% 49% D+ D C- D D+ F D- F F C C D+ B- C- 32% 31% 37% B- C A+ F C+ D- B+ D- B
0.98 71% 10% 31% -4 0 0.94 28% 0.9 .26 21% .30 65% .19 1.04 58% 39% 32% -1 -2 0.97 14% 1.8 .25 12% .22 79% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Marshall F B+ F F F 32% 11% 57% B+ F A- F C- D+ A+ F+ A C- C B- F C 27% 38% 35% A C+ D B C C+ D F D-
0.96 67% 20% 19% -12 +1 0.79 42% 0.7 .28 19% .49 64% .31 1.10 62% 33% 41% +3 -3 1.02 35% 1.0 .35 19% .29 80% .23
Feb
4		 Coastal Carolina D F F A+ C- 33% 27% 41% B- C A F D+ F A- C+ A- B+ B F A- B- 28% 16% 56% F+ C+ D D+ D A+ D- A D+
1.00 38% 31% 45% -2 -1 0.96 38% 0.7 .25 20% .37 71% .27 0.94 50% 50% 29% -5 0 0.92 30% 1.0 .30 23% .31 65% .20
Feb
7		 Bowling Green A- A+ F A+ A+ 37% 8% 56% B A+ A+ C A B- C+ F D A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 40% 22% 38% A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A F+ C D-
1.21 74% 25% 41% +11 +2 1.27 41% 1.1 .44 17% .34 57% .19 0.72 59% 25% 10% -16 0 0.69 23% 0.1 .03 23% .38 73% .27
Feb
11		 Louisiana Monroe A B A+ B+ B 47% 5% 48% A- B+ A+ C- A C+ C F D- C+ A+ B- D C 29% 23% 48% B C C+ C- C D+ F A+ D
1.39 67% 67% 39% +9 +3 1.26 51% 1.1 .56 15% .25 50% .13 0.95 40% 33% 36% -5 -1 0.90 23% 1.0 .23 16% .42 62% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.7 2.7 1st
2nd 1.3 13.0 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 11.3 13.8 25.3 3rd
4th 3.8 20.5 2.6 26.9 4th
5th 0.3 10.5 6.0 0.0 16.8 5th
6th 1.7 6.0 0.3 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 3.0 0.8 3.9 7th
8th 0.2 1.0 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 1.0 6.1 21.3 39.4 32.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 8.3% 2.7    0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 32.1% 22.3% 22.3% 13.1 1.3 4.1 1.7 0.1 24.9
11-7 39.4% 15.1% 15.1% 13.7 0.1 2.0 3.4 0.5 0.0 33.5
10-8 21.3% 8.4% 8.4% 14.0 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 19.5
9-9 6.1% 6.4% 6.4% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.7
8-10 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.0
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 13.5 84.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.1% 100.0% 13.1 17.8 57.7 23.8 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.0%