Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#109
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#83
Pace73.5#68
Improvement-0.6#229

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#155
First Shot-3.1#266
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#19
Layup/Dunks-0.2#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#318
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#280
Freethrows+2.9#45
Improvement+1.1#93

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#86
First Shot+6.2#22
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#344
Layups/Dunks+3.7#60
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#278
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#14
Freethrows-2.3#319
Improvement-1.7#309
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.1% 25.9% 18.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.4 12.8
.500 or above 99.7% 99.8% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 97.0% 97.8% 91.4%
Conference Champion 36.0% 38.3% 18.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round25.1% 25.9% 18.6%
Second Round3.7% 3.9% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Home) - 88.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 01 - 1
Quad 21 - 12 - 2
Quad 36 - 48 - 7
Quad 414 - 223 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 145   Akron W 80-75 OT 73%     1 - 0 +2.6 -8.8 +10.6
  Nov 08, 2024 8   @ Alabama L 79-88 7%     1 - 1 +11.4 -0.7 +13.6
  Nov 12, 2024 244   Arkansas Little Rock W 80-63 86%     2 - 1 +9.3 +10.5 -0.4
  Nov 16, 2024 216   Stephen F. Austin W 59-49 81%     3 - 1 +4.4 -6.8 +12.0
  Nov 29, 2024 151   Indiana St. W 86-81 63%     4 - 1 +5.3 +5.8 -0.7
  Nov 30, 2024 196   Rice L 67-75 70%     4 - 2 -9.6 -4.8 -4.9
  Dec 01, 2024 153   Hofstra L 66-68 63%     4 - 3 -1.7 -0.7 -1.1
  Dec 05, 2024 307   Jackson St. W 66-64 91%     5 - 3 -9.2 -13.1 +3.8
  Dec 08, 2024 37   @ Memphis W 85-72 15%     6 - 3 +28.2 +6.2 +20.2
  Dec 12, 2024 147   Texas Arlington W 83-79 73%     7 - 3 +1.5 +5.6 -4.1
  Dec 15, 2024 130   @ UAB W 98-89 OT 46%     8 - 3 +13.8 +3.4 +8.5
  Dec 21, 2024 270   Coastal Carolina W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 02, 2025 314   @ Old Dominion W 79-70 81%    
  Jan 04, 2025 115   @ James Madison L 73-75 41%    
  Jan 09, 2025 201   @ South Alabama W 71-68 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 126   @ Troy L 72-73 44%    
  Jan 16, 2025 294   Louisiana W 81-67 90%    
  Jan 18, 2025 263   Georgia St. W 81-69 87%    
  Jan 23, 2025 193   Appalachian St. W 71-63 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 140   Texas St. W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 29, 2025 282   @ Southern Miss W 77-70 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 140   @ Texas St. L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 05, 2025 189   @ Marshall W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 12, 2025 282   Southern Miss W 80-67 89%    
  Feb 15, 2025 126   Troy W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 19, 2025 201   South Alabama W 74-65 78%    
  Feb 22, 2025 329   Louisiana Monroe W 80-63 93%    
  Feb 26, 2025 294   @ Louisiana W 78-70 76%    
  Feb 28, 2025 329   @ Louisiana Monroe W 77-66 83%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.0 8.3 10.7 8.8 3.8 0.9 36.0 1st
2nd 0.3 3.1 7.8 7.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 6.3 5.1 1.3 0.1 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.4 3.9 0.8 0.1 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.0 0.7 0.0 6.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.4 0.7 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.6 6.7 10.6 14.2 16.8 17.2 13.9 9.3 3.9 0.9 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 99.5% 3.8    3.7 0.1
16-2 94.6% 8.8    7.6 1.2 0.0
15-3 77.4% 10.7    7.2 3.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 48.2% 8.3    3.5 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.1% 3.0    0.5 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 36.0% 36.0 23.5 9.4 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 49.1% 48.0% 1.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 2.1%
17-1 3.9% 46.0% 45.9% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.0 2.1 0.2%
16-2 9.3% 39.7% 39.7% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.4 2.9 0.4 0.0 5.6 0.0%
15-3 13.9% 34.1% 34.1% 12.3 0.2 3.2 1.3 0.1 9.1
14-4 17.2% 29.3% 29.3% 12.5 0.0 2.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 12.1
13-5 16.8% 24.4% 24.4% 12.7 0.0 1.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 12.7
12-6 14.2% 19.3% 19.3% 13.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 11.5
11-7 10.6% 14.2% 14.2% 13.2 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.0 9.1
10-8 6.7% 10.1% 10.1% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 6.0
9-9 3.6% 6.6% 6.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.4
8-10 1.9% 5.1% 5.1% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
7-11 0.7% 3.8% 3.8% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.1% 25.0% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4 12.0 9.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 74.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 9.6 1.4 3.7 4.1 6.4 10.0 11.9 17.4 34.2 11.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 3.3% 11.3 2.2 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 1.2% 11.0 1.2