Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#155
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#101
Pace79.0#14
Improvement+4.7#4

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#171
First Shot-3.1#260
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#42
Layup/Dunks-3.1#284
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#157
Freethrows+2.4#65
Improvement+1.4#74

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#162
First Shot-1.7#227
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#75
Layups/Dunks+0.3#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#138
Freethrows-0.4#209
Improvement+3.3#6
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.2% 18.1% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 91.4% 95.0% 83.9%
.500 or above in Conference 88.5% 90.6% 84.2%
Conference Champion 22.8% 25.2% 17.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round16.2% 18.1% 12.3%
Second Round1.0% 1.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Away) - 67.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 35 - 55 - 7
Quad 414 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 194 @Ohio W 89-85 47%     1 - 0 +4.6 +9.3 -5.0
  Fri, Nov 7 144 @Stephen F. Austin L 65-90 34%     1 - 1 -20.9 -7.6 -11.9
  Tue, Nov 11 242 @Missouri St. W 86-85 56%     2 - 1 -0.5 +3.2 -3.9
  Wed, Nov 19 42 @St. Mary's L 72-85 9%     2 - 2 +1.8 +8.6 -7.1
  Fri, Nov 21 40 @SMU L 69-100 9%     2 - 3 -16.1 -6.0 -6.1
  Mon, Nov 24 238 Jacksonville St. W 74-63 76%     3 - 3 +3.5 -2.7 +5.7
  Fri, Nov 28 149 North Dakota St. W 85-80 OT 60%     4 - 3 +2.4 +2.6 -0.7
  Tue, Dec 2 190 Texas Arlington W 83-63 69%     5 - 3 +14.9 +6.5 +7.7
  Sat, Dec 6 305 @Arkansas Little Rock W 77-72 68%    
  Sat, Dec 13 217 @Rice W 76-75 51%    
  Wed, Dec 17 232 @Texas St. W 74-73 54%    
  Sat, Dec 20 219 @Southern Miss W 79-78 52%    
  Sun, Jan 4 169 James Madison W 80-76 64%    
  Wed, Jan 7 146 Troy W 78-76 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 232 Texas St. W 77-70 74%    
  Thu, Jan 15 165 @South Alabama L 74-76 42%    
  Sat, Jan 17 146 @Troy L 75-79 36%    
  Thu, Jan 22 226 @Georgia Southern W 83-82 53%    
  Sat, Jan 24 334 @Georgia St. W 81-73 75%    
  Wed, Jan 28 220 Old Dominion W 82-75 72%    
  Sat, Jan 31 170 Marshall W 83-79 64%    
  Wed, Feb 4 260 @Coastal Carolina W 79-76 59%    
  Wed, Feb 11 357 Louisiana Monroe W 88-71 94%    
  Sat, Feb 14 165 South Alabama W 77-73 63%    
  Thu, Feb 19 318 @Louisiana W 74-68 70%    
  Sat, Feb 21 357 @Louisiana Monroe W 85-74 84%    
  Tue, Feb 24 219 Southern Miss W 82-75 72%    
  Fri, Feb 27 318 Louisiana W 77-65 85%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.0 6.2 6.6 4.3 1.7 0.5 22.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.3 7.0 4.4 1.2 0.2 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 5.9 3.8 0.6 0.1 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.5 4.1 0.6 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.4 3.8 4.4 0.7 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.3 1.1 0.1 7.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.0 0.1 5.8 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.6 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.2 5.7 8.0 11.9 14.0 14.7 14.3 11.2 7.9 4.4 1.7 0.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
16-2 96.3% 4.3    3.7 0.5
15-3 83.8% 6.6    4.6 1.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 55.3% 6.2    2.6 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 20.8% 3.0    0.6 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0
12-6 4.1% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.8% 22.8 13.7 6.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 53.2% 53.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.7% 43.1% 43.1% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0
16-2 4.4% 44.3% 44.3% 13.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.5
15-3 7.9% 37.7% 37.7% 13.4 0.3 1.4 1.1 0.2 4.9
14-4 11.2% 32.4% 32.4% 13.8 0.1 1.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 7.6
13-5 14.3% 21.2% 21.2% 14.1 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.0 11.3
12-6 14.7% 13.3% 13.3% 14.3 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.0 12.8
11-7 14.0% 7.8% 7.8% 14.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 12.9
10-8 11.9% 3.3% 3.3% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.5
9-9 8.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.8
8-10 5.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6
7-11 3.2% 0.8% 0.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 3.2
6-12 1.5% 1.5
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.7 6.7 3.1 0.2 83.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.1 7.7 7.7 51.9 32.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%