Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.9 #145
Expected Predictive Rating +3.1 #119
Pace 79.2 #11
Improvement -0.5 #216

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #132 C- A- D- B- B-
Defense #180 C- C+ D- C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #174 1.16 #175 +0.0 #180
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #276 0.69 #280 -2.2 #293
Three Pointers 45% #93 0.92 #290 +0.2 #174
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #240 -2.1 #239
Freethrows 18.4 #133 76% #64 14.1 #99
Second Chance 36.4% #38 1.11 #103 0.40 #43
Turnovers 18.7% #308
Total Offense +1.3 #132

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #205 1.28 #314 -1.9 #244
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #126 0.74 #143 -0.3 #204
Three Pointers 40% #207 0.99 #147 +0.9 #145
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #216 -1.3 #217
Freethrows 17.8 #212 71% #123 12.7 #196
Second Chance 26.1% #38 1.13 #286 0.29 #113
Turnovers 13.9% #322
Total Defense -0.4 #180

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #111 -0.4% #126
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.2% #257 3.0% #235
Possession Length 14.9 #16 17.1 #144
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #135 0.19 #230
Improvement -0.4 #203 -0.1 #193

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.9% 25.6% 17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.7
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 99.1%
Conference Champion 17.2% 22.2% 7.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round22.9% 25.6% 17.8%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 65.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 38 - 38 - 7
Quad 412 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 196 @Ohio W 89 - 85 51% -2  1 - 0 +5 +9 C A+ F -5 D- A+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 65 - 90 26% -16  1 - 1 -18 -5 F C- F -11 D+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 179 @Missouri St. W 86 - 85 47% -7  2 - 1 +3 +3 D B+ F -0 C- A- D
 Wed, Nov 19 42 @St. Mary's L 72 - 85 10% -7  2 - 2 +2 +8 C A+ C+ -6 D D A-
 Fri, Nov 21 29 @SMU L 69 - 100 7% -15  2 - 3 -14 -7 D- A+ F -3 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 216 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 63 76% +7  3 - 3 +5 -5 D+ F F +9 A+ B+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 147 North Dakota St. W 85 - 80 OT 62% -1  4 - 3 +3 +1 D- B A+ +1 C A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 156 Texas Arlington W 83 - 63 64% +10  5 - 3 +17 +9 A- C- D +7 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 6 282 @Arkansas Little Rock W 90 - 78 67% +8  6 - 3 +8 +13 C A- B -5 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 239 @Rice L 76 - 77 59% +7  6 - 4 -2 +3 C+ F C -5 D+ B F
 Wed, Dec 17 263 @Texas St. W 89 - 70 63% +8  7 - 4 1 - 0 +16 +14 A+ A+ F +2 B- C+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 244 @Southern Miss W 93 - 86 60% +3  8 - 4 2 - 0 +5 +19 F A+ A+ -14 F D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 231 James Madison L 74 - 78 77% +2  8 - 5 2 - 1 -11 -6 F D- C -5 F A A
 Wed, Jan 7 112 Troy W 86 - 74 52% +10  9 - 5 3 - 1 +12 +7 B A F +5 B- A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 263 Texas St. W 83 - 82 82% +5  10 - 5 4 - 1 -8 -0 F C F -7 D F B
 Thu, Jan 15 191 @South Alabama L 87 - 91 OT 50% -0  10 - 6 4 - 2 -3 +3 C- C+ F -6 C- A- F
 Sat, Jan 17 112 @Troy L 74 - 99 30% -9  10 - 7 4 - 3 -19 +8 F A+ A+ -27 F F F
 Thu, Jan 22 251 @Georgia Southern W 85 - 68 61% +9  11 - 7 5 - 3 +15 +5 A- F F +9 A+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 24 273 @Georgia St. W 80 - 76 65%
 Wed, Jan 28 240 Old Dominion W 85 - 77 79%
 Sat, Jan 31 163 Marshall W 85 - 81 66%
 Wed, Feb 4 252 @Coastal Carolina W 80 - 77 61%
 Sat, Feb 7 129 Bowling Green W 81 - 79 57%
 Wed, Feb 11 361 Louisiana Monroe W 94 - 74 97%
 Sat, Feb 14 191 South Alabama W 79 - 73 71%
 Thu, Feb 19 312 @Louisiana W 75 - 68 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 91 - 77 90%
 Tue, Feb 24 244 Southern Miss W 84 - 75 79%
 Fri, Feb 27 312 Louisiana W 78 - 65 88%
Totals 19 - 10 13 - 5 +1 +1 C- A- D- +0 C- C+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.4 7.7 5.6 17.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 11.7 21.6 14.3 3.4 52.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 5.3 8.5 2.5 0.2 16.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 4.4 1.2 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 1.2 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.5 1.1 0.1 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.2 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 5.0 12.4 21.9 27.6 22.2 9.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 62.2% 5.6    3.1 2.5 0.0
14-4 34.7% 7.7    2.9 4.4 0.5
13-5 12.3% 3.4    0.6 1.8 0.8 0.2
12-6 2.1% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 6.6 8.9 1.5 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 9.1% 38.1% 38.1% 12.6 0.1 1.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.6
14-4 22.2% 32.4% 32.4% 13.3 0.0 0.6 3.7 2.5 0.3 15.0
13-5 27.6% 25.5% 25.5% 13.7 0.2 2.6 3.6 0.7 0.0 20.5
12-6 21.9% 17.0% 17.0% 13.9 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.7 0.0 18.2
11-7 12.4% 9.8% 9.8% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 11.2
10-8 5.0% 5.1% 5.1% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.7
9-9 1.5% 3.0% 3.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
8-10 0.4% 0.4
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.9% 22.9% 0.0% 13.5 77.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 12.4 3.2 56.7 37.5 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6%