Louisiana
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#291
Expected Predictive Rating-9.6#316
Pace69.6#161
Improvement+0.8#131

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#252
First Shot-1.8#228
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#252
Layup/Dunks-0.8#204
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#182
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#136
Freethrows-1.8#282
Improvement-2.0#321

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#300
First Shot-0.8#193
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#350
Layups/Dunks-0.9#200
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#63
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#100
Freethrows-3.5#345
Improvement+2.8#15
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 1.2% 3.5% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 28.4% 36.4% 26.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 9.8% 6.2% 10.6%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Home) - 17.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 102 - 14
Quad 47 - 79 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 113   Kent St. L 66-70 24%     0 - 1 -3.6 -0.5 -3.3
  Nov 13, 2024 6   @ Houston L 45-91 1%     0 - 2 -23.9 -16.3 -6.4
  Nov 19, 2024 196   Rice L 61-83 41%     0 - 3 -26.6 -7.9 -20.5
  Nov 22, 2024 81   Liberty L 69-89 10%     0 - 4 -13.0 +6.2 -20.8
  Nov 23, 2024 136   George Washington L 74-83 22%     0 - 5 -7.6 -3.1 -4.1
  Nov 25, 2024 129   UAB L 86-98 20%     0 - 6 -10.1 +9.9 -19.8
  Nov 30, 2024 241   Nicholls St. L 75-76 52%     0 - 7 -8.5 +5.3 -13.9
  Dec 08, 2024 101   Louisiana Tech L 58-69 20%     0 - 8 -8.9 -9.3 -0.4
  Dec 11, 2024 228   SE Louisiana W 68-61 49%     1 - 8 +0.4 -3.6 +4.2
  Dec 14, 2024 175   Lamar L 45-74 38%     1 - 9 -32.9 -22.2 -14.5
  Dec 18, 2024 173   Appalachian St. W 68-62 38%     2 - 9 1 - 0 +2.2 -0.2 +2.8
  Dec 22, 2024 92   McNeese St. L 66-76 17%    
  Jan 02, 2025 268   @ Coastal Carolina L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 04, 2025 263   @ Georgia St. L 73-77 34%    
  Jan 09, 2025 315   Old Dominion W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 11, 2025 329   Louisiana Monroe W 74-68 72%    
  Jan 16, 2025 109   @ Arkansas St. L 67-81 10%    
  Jan 18, 2025 329   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-71 50%    
  Jan 22, 2025 139   Texas St. L 69-74 32%    
  Jan 25, 2025 283   Southern Miss W 75-72 61%    
  Jan 30, 2025 139   @ Texas St. L 66-77 16%    
  Feb 01, 2025 202   South Alabama L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 05, 2025 234   @ Georgia Southern L 74-80 29%    
  Feb 12, 2025 125   Troy L 70-76 29%    
  Feb 15, 2025 190   Marshall L 74-77 41%    
  Feb 20, 2025 125   @ Troy L 67-79 14%    
  Feb 22, 2025 283   @ Southern Miss L 72-75 39%    
  Feb 26, 2025 109   Arkansas St. L 70-78 25%    
  Feb 28, 2025 202   @ South Alabama L 66-74 24%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 1.9 0.7 0.1 3.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.0 0.5 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.7 4.6 1.3 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.7 2.8 0.2 10.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 5.8 4.5 0.6 0.0 12.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 4.7 6.0 1.4 0.0 12.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.4 2.3 0.1 0.0 12.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 11.1 12th
13th 0.2 1.6 3.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.3 13th
14th 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.8 14th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.7 7.5 12.3 15.7 16.3 14.9 11.5 8.0 4.9 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 74.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 47.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 13.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 6.5% 6.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.2% 4.3% 4.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.3% 3.5% 3.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.2
11-7 4.9% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.7
10-8 8.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 7.9
9-9 11.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.5
8-10 14.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.8
7-11 16.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 16.3
6-12 15.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.7
5-13 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.3
4-14 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.5
3-15 3.7% 3.7
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%