Louisiana
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.8#301
Expected Predictive Rating-8.4#302
Pace67.4#205
Improvement+0.1#181

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#314
First Shot-3.4#278
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#289
Layup/Dunks-1.5#236
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#139
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#183
Freethrows-2.5#316
Improvement-4.4#348

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#250
First Shot+0.4#167
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#349
Layups/Dunks-1.3#228
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#85
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#37
Freethrows-3.2#348
Improvement+4.5#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.1% 14.3% 2.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Away) - 31.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 46 - 109 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 148   Kent St. L 66-70 27%     0 - 1 -5.5 -0.7 -5.1
  Nov 13, 2024 3   @ Houston L 45-91 1%     0 - 2 -20.8 -15.6 -4.1
  Nov 19, 2024 192   Rice L 61-83 36%     0 - 3 -26.0 -8.7 -19.1
  Nov 22, 2024 90   Liberty L 69-89 10%     0 - 4 -13.8 +6.1 -21.5
  Nov 23, 2024 124   George Washington L 74-83 18%     0 - 5 -6.9 -1.4 -5.0
  Nov 25, 2024 96   UAB L 86-98 12%     0 - 6 -7.1 +10.4 -17.3
  Nov 30, 2024 197   Nicholls St. L 75-76 36%     0 - 7 -5.2 +6.0 -11.3
  Dec 08, 2024 113   Louisiana Tech L 58-69 21%     0 - 8 -10.3 -10.2 -0.9
  Dec 11, 2024 228   SE Louisiana W 68-61 44%     1 - 8 +0.8 -5.2 +6.2
  Dec 14, 2024 218   Lamar L 45-74 42%     1 - 9 -34.7 -23.1 -15.4
  Dec 18, 2024 145   Appalachian St. W 68-62 27%     2 - 9 1 - 0 +4.7 +1.5 +3.5
  Dec 22, 2024 87   McNeese St. L 56-64 14%     2 - 10 -3.9 -8.6 +3.7
  Jan 02, 2025 309   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-68 43%     3 - 10 2 - 0 -3.1 +1.4 -4.2
  Jan 04, 2025 278   @ Georgia St. L 70-94 36%     3 - 11 2 - 1 -28.0 -9.1 -18.1
  Jan 09, 2025 275   Old Dominion L 60-71 54%     3 - 12 2 - 2 -19.8 -11.4 -9.4
  Jan 11, 2025 328   Louisiana Monroe W 71-68 69%     4 - 12 3 - 2 -10.0 -2.7 -7.1
  Jan 16, 2025 93   @ Arkansas St. L 63-83 7%     4 - 13 3 - 3 -11.6 -4.2 -7.7
  Jan 18, 2025 328   @ Louisiana Monroe W 65-60 51%     5 - 13 4 - 3 -3.0 -6.0 +3.3
  Jan 23, 2025 184   Texas St. L 74-89 35%     5 - 14 4 - 4 -18.8 -3.3 -15.4
  Jan 25, 2025 248   Southern Miss L 59-67 49%     5 - 15 4 - 5 -15.6 -12.6 -3.4
  Jan 30, 2025 184   @ Texas St. W 70-61 20%     6 - 15 5 - 5 +10.2 +1.2 +9.8
  Feb 01, 2025 156   South Alabama L 58-62 OT 29%     6 - 16 5 - 6 -5.9 -11.8 +5.7
  Feb 05, 2025 254   @ Georgia Southern L 70-75 31%    
  Feb 08, 2025 338   @ Northern Illinois W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 12, 2025 111   Troy L 64-73 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 182   Marshall L 69-73 36%    
  Feb 20, 2025 111   @ Troy L 61-75 9%    
  Feb 22, 2025 248   @ Southern Miss L 68-73 30%    
  Feb 26, 2025 93   Arkansas St. L 66-77 16%    
  Feb 28, 2025 156   @ South Alabama L 59-70 15%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 2.6 0.2 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 5.4 1.4 7.9 8th
9th 0.3 6.4 5.9 0.3 12.9 9th
10th 0.0 4.6 12.2 1.8 0.0 18.5 10th
11th 2.6 16.4 7.5 0.1 26.6 11th
12th 14.5 11.5 1.0 27.1 12th
13th 0.9 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 18.1 32.9 28.3 14.7 5.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
9-9 5.0% 5.0
8-10 14.7% 14.7
7-11 28.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 28.3
6-12 32.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 32.8
5-13 18.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.2%