Louisiana
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.1 #312
Expected Predictive Rating -11.0 #331
Pace 60.4 #360
Improvement +2.1 #94

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #339 F F C F F
Defense #239 D- C C+ F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #358 1.01 #330 -7.8 #360
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #20 0.77 #149 +4.3 #23
Three Pointers 40% #192 0.92 #297 -2.4 #272
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #337 -5.9 #337
Freethrows 12.8 #349 68% #314 8.7 #356
Second Chance 24.2% #332 0.89 #343 0.22 #353
Turnovers 16.9% #212
Total Offense -7.2 #339

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #39 1.19 #225 -4.1 #313
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #338 0.64 #28 +3.2 #5
Three Pointers 41% #178 1.17 #343 -3.2 #308
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #307 -4.1 #308
Freethrows 22.0 #345 73% #199 16.1 #344
Second Chance 31.9% #248 1.04 #177 0.33 #218
Turnovers 17.1% #135
Total Defense -1.9 #239

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.1% #357 2.4% #355
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.9% #306 5.7% #282
Possession Length 19.8 #358 17.6 #231
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #346 0.16 #130
Improvement +2.5 #58 -0.4 #216

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.6% 6.3% 0.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Home) - 50.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 91 - 13
Quad 47 - 109 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 296 @Ball St. L 64 - 75 33% -2  0 - 1 -16 -5 F F C- -11 F D- B-
 Fri, Nov 7 272 SE Louisiana W 58 - 52 50% +9  1 - 1 -3 -5 A F C +3 A+ C- C+
 Tue, Nov 11 172 Tulane L 62 - 66 31% -3  1 - 2 -8 -7 F C- A+ -1 C+ F B
 Fri, Nov 14 87 @McNeese St. L 62 - 88 5% -18  1 - 3 -16 -4 F C D- -13 F A+ A
 Tue, Nov 18 77 @Stanford L 66 - 93 4% -12  1 - 4 -16 -2 C+ F C -13 F B- D+
 Fri, Nov 21 54 @Santa Clara L 43 - 80 3% -20  1 - 5 -24 -22 F F F -4 A+ F F
 Mon, Nov 24 181 @UC Davis L 56 - 77 16% -8  1 - 6 -19 -12 F F F -9 F C D
 Fri, Nov 28 325 Jackson St. L 45 - 51 66% -5  1 - 7 -19 -29 F C- F +9 A C+ B-
 Wed, Dec 3 211 @Lamar L 55 - 65 20% +2  1 - 8 -10 -7 D- C F -4 D B+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 125 UNC Wilmington L 63 - 70 21% -3  1 - 9 -8 -4 D+ D+ C -5 D B- B
 Sat, Dec 13 228 @Louisiana Tech L 44 - 65 22% -11  1 - 10 -22 -18 F F F -7 F F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 244 @Southern Miss L 54 - 62 24% -2  1 - 11 0 - 1 -10 -16 F F B+ +6 A+ A F
 Sat, Dec 20 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 76 - 62 64% +12  2 - 11 1 - 1 +1 +4 B- F A+ -1 B- F A+
 Sun, Dec 28 291 Norfolk St. W 63 - 54 55% +9  3 - 11 -1 -1 B- F A+ +1 A B D+
 Wed, Dec 31 191 South Alabama L 58 - 63 35% -2  3 - 12 1 - 2 -10 -1 F C- B+ -10 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 244 Southern Miss L 67 - 74 44% -2  3 - 13 1 - 3 -15 -6 D- A+ F -9 F B A+
 Thu, Jan 8 361 Louisiana Monroe W 85 - 79 82% +3  4 - 13 2 - 3 -13 +1 D+ A- F -14 F C C
 Sat, Jan 10 112 Troy L 70 - 90 18% -16  4 - 14 2 - 4 -20 +4 A+ F C+ -25 F F A-
 Wed, Jan 14 263 @Texas St. L 54 - 59 27% -5  4 - 15 2 - 5 -8 -10 F F C+ +2 F A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 191 @South Alabama W 59 - 56 17% +1  5 - 15 3 - 5 +4 +1 C- F A+ +3 C F C
 Thu, Jan 22 206 @Appalachian St. L 58 - 72 19% -1  5 - 16 3 - 6 -14 -3 F C- A+ -13 F B- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 273 Georgia St. W 65 - 64 50%
 Sat, Jan 31 251 Georgia Southern L 70 - 71 46%
 Wed, Feb 4 231 @James Madison L 63 - 71 22%
 Sat, Feb 7 322 Central Michigan W 68 - 64 65%
 Thu, Feb 12 252 Coastal Carolina L 65 - 66 46%
 Mon, Feb 16 240 @Old Dominion L 63 - 71 23%
 Thu, Feb 19 145 Arkansas St. L 68 - 75 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 263 Texas St. L 64 - 65 48%
 Tue, Feb 24 112 @Troy L 58 - 74 7%
 Fri, Feb 27 145 @Arkansas St. L 65 - 78 12%
Totals 8 - 23 6 - 12 -9 -7 F F C -2 D- C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 0.2 1.1 6th
7th 0.6 1.2 0.0 1.8 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 0.6 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 3.2 0.1 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 5.8 1.9 0.0 8.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 4.7 7.3 0.4 12.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 5.6 12.5 3.3 0.0 21.9 12th
13th 4.2 13.7 19.4 7.9 0.4 45.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.1 14th
Total 4.3 14.2 25.4 25.6 18.4 8.5 2.9 0.6 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.6% 0.6
9-9 2.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.9
8-10 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.5
7-11 18.4% 18.4
6-12 25.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 25.6
5-13 25.4% 25.4
4-14 14.2% 14.2
3-15 4.3% 4.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%