UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#236
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#184
Pace67.6#196
Improvement-0.9#231

Offense
Total Offense-6.5#334
First Shot-3.3#274
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#334
Layup/Dunks-5.0#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#39
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#313
Freethrows+3.0#35
Improvement+1.7#103

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#100
First Shot+3.2#75
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#254
Layups/Dunks+1.1#129
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#154
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#63
Freethrows-1.3#271
Improvement-2.6#310
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 n/a
.500 or above 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 9
Quad 34 - 55 - 13
Quad 48 - 414 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 104   @ Washington L 73-79 16%     0 - 1 +0.7 -7.9 +9.5
  Nov 07, 2024 261   @ Idaho W 79-75 45%     1 - 1 +1.2 -1.8 +2.8
  Nov 17, 2024 84   @ Stanford L 65-79 11%     1 - 2 -4.6 -4.7 +0.6
  Nov 20, 2024 94   @ Grand Canyon W 75-68 13%     2 - 2 +15.1 +4.4 +10.3
  Nov 25, 2024 182   Norfolk St. L 55-76 50%     2 - 3 -25.0 -21.3 -3.8
  Nov 30, 2024 89   @ Oregon St. L 57-90 12%     2 - 4 -24.4 -11.3 -15.3
  Dec 05, 2024 194   Cal Poly W 77-66 52%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +6.4 -10.2 +15.1
  Dec 07, 2024 152   UC Santa Barbara W 71-60 44%     4 - 4 2 - 0 +8.6 -0.4 +9.7
  Dec 14, 2024 336   @ Sacramento St. W 69-62 68%     5 - 4 -1.8 -3.9 +2.4
  Dec 18, 2024 261   Idaho W 74-66 66%     6 - 4 -0.3 -7.4 +7.0
  Dec 21, 2024 217   @ Pepperdine L 46-85 36%     6 - 5 -39.3 -28.3 -11.0
  Jan 02, 2025 245   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 64-75 41%     6 - 6 2 - 1 -12.8 -7.3 -6.3
  Jan 04, 2025 113   @ Cal St. Northridge L 61-73 17%     6 - 7 2 - 2 -5.9 -12.6 +7.4
  Jan 09, 2025 351   Cal St. Fullerton W 63-53 87%     7 - 7 3 - 2 -6.0 -15.8 +9.7
  Jan 11, 2025 294   Long Beach St. L 73-84 73%     7 - 8 3 - 3 -21.4 -1.9 -20.1
  Jan 16, 2025 194   @ Cal Poly W 65-54 31%     8 - 8 4 - 3 +12.0 +0.6 +12.9
  Jan 18, 2025 152   @ UC Santa Barbara W 64-60 25%     9 - 8 5 - 3 +7.1 +2.6 +5.2
  Jan 23, 2025 221   Hawaii W 68-66 58%     10 - 8 6 - 3 -4.1 +1.0 -4.8
  Jan 30, 2025 142   @ UC Riverside L 58-60 23%     10 - 9 6 - 4 +1.8 -3.9 +5.3
  Feb 01, 2025 70   @ UC Irvine L 66-73 9%     10 - 10 6 - 5 +3.6 +2.1 +1.4
  Feb 06, 2025 294   @ Long Beach St. W 73-65 OT 53%     11 - 10 7 - 5 +3.1 -6.4 +9.1
  Feb 08, 2025 351   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 65-49 73%     12 - 10 8 - 5 +5.5 -8.2 +14.2
  Feb 13, 2025 142   UC Riverside W 75-74 41%     13 - 10 9 - 5 -0.7 +2.0 -2.7
  Feb 15, 2025 47   @ UC San Diego L 60-85 6%     13 - 11 9 - 6 -10.9 -1.1 -11.4
  Feb 20, 2025 245   Cal St. Bakersfield L 66-71 62%     13 - 12 9 - 7 -12.3 -8.3 -4.3
  Feb 22, 2025 113   Cal St. Northridge L 62-65 33%     13 - 13 9 - 8 -2.4 -3.5 +0.7
  Mar 01, 2025 221   @ Hawaii L 70-78 37%     13 - 14 9 - 9 -8.6 -2.5 -6.0
  Mar 06, 2025 70   UC Irvine L 59-88 19%     13 - 15 9 - 10 -23.9 -5.4 -19.8
  Mar 08, 2025 47   UC San Diego L 57-68 12%     13 - 16 9 - 11 -2.4 -3.1 -0.9
  Mar 12, 2025 194   Cal Poly L 76-78 41%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 100.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.2 0.2 0.0 99.8
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.2 0.2 0.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.4%
Lose Out 58.0%