UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#185
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#116
Pace74.8#47
Improvement+0.8#132

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#302
First Shot-1.2#204
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#343
Layup/Dunks-4.8#329
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#64
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#265
Freethrows+4.0#17
Improvement-0.5#223

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#84
First Shot+2.5#102
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#96
Layups/Dunks-0.2#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#62
Freethrows-1.6#292
Improvement+1.2#89
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 3.8% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.4
.500 or above 58.3% 70.6% 46.0%
.500 or above in Conference 63.0% 68.4% 57.6%
Conference Champion 2.5% 3.0% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.7% 3.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round3.1% 3.8% 2.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Away) - 50.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 42 - 7
Quad 34 - 56 - 12
Quad 410 - 316 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 82   @ Washington L 73-79 15%     0 - 1 +3.8 -4.9 +9.7
  Nov 07, 2024 279   @ Idaho W 79-75 59%     1 - 1 +0.4 -0.7 +0.9
  Nov 17, 2024 94   @ Stanford L 65-79 17%     1 - 2 -5.0 -7.1 +2.5
  Nov 20, 2024 102   @ Grand Canyon W 75-68 19%     2 - 2 +15.1 +2.6 +12.0
  Nov 25, 2024 181   Norfolk St. L 55-76 61%     2 - 3 -25.0 -20.4 -4.8
  Nov 30, 2024 65   @ Oregon St. L 57-90 12%     2 - 4 -21.3 -4.9 -18.7
  Dec 05, 2024 265   Cal Poly W 77-66 76%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +2.4 -11.9 +12.7
  Dec 07, 2024 138   UC Santa Barbara W 71-60 53%     4 - 4 2 - 0 +9.2 +1.0 +8.9
  Dec 14, 2024 335   @ Sacramento St. W 69-62 72%     5 - 4 -0.4 -2.6 +2.4
  Dec 18, 2024 279   Idaho W 74-66 79%     6 - 4 -1.6 -6.6 +4.9
  Dec 21, 2024 237   @ Pepperdine L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 02, 2025 229   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 04, 2025 158   @ Cal St. Northridge L 73-77 36%    
  Jan 09, 2025 275   Cal St. Fullerton W 71-63 77%    
  Jan 11, 2025 261   Long Beach St. W 72-65 75%    
  Jan 16, 2025 265   @ Cal Poly W 81-80 55%    
  Jan 18, 2025 138   @ UC Santa Barbara L 68-73 32%    
  Jan 23, 2025 174   Hawaii W 70-67 59%    
  Jan 30, 2025 171   @ UC Riverside L 68-72 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 60   @ UC Irvine L 63-76 11%    
  Feb 06, 2025 261   @ Long Beach St. W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 275   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 13, 2025 171   UC Riverside W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 91   @ UC San Diego L 64-74 18%    
  Feb 20, 2025 229   Cal St. Bakersfield W 71-66 69%    
  Feb 22, 2025 158   Cal St. Northridge W 76-74 57%    
  Mar 02, 2025 174   @ Hawaii L 67-70 39%    
  Mar 06, 2025 60   UC Irvine L 66-73 26%    
  Mar 08, 2025 91   UC San Diego L 67-71 34%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.6 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 4.9 5.8 3.1 0.8 0.1 16.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.1 5.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 16.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 6.2 5.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 15.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 6.0 4.5 1.1 0.1 13.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.3 4.0 0.9 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.2 3.3 0.7 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.2 6.8 10.0 13.2 14.3 14.3 12.4 9.7 6.3 3.5 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 90.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 71.5% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 45.6% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.1
15-5 18.6% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 37.0% 37.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 26.6% 26.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.7% 15.9% 15.9% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-4 1.6% 19.6% 19.6% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.3
15-5 3.5% 13.8% 13.8% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.0
14-6 6.3% 8.6% 8.6% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.7
13-7 9.7% 6.0% 6.0% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 9.1
12-8 12.4% 3.0% 3.0% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 12.0
11-9 14.3% 2.0% 2.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.0
10-10 14.3% 1.3% 1.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.2
9-11 13.2% 0.7% 0.7% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.1
8-12 10.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 10.0
7-13 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 6.8
6-14 4.2% 4.2
5-15 1.9% 1.9
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 96.9 0.0%