UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.5 #181
Expected Predictive Rating +0.2 #161
Pace 71.1 #116
Improvement -1.0 #240

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #177 B- C- C- B C
Defense #208 D+ C+ B- D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #276 1.23 #96 -0.7 #201
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #184 0.78 #145 +0.1 #173
Three Pointers 45% #111 1.09 #87 +3.5 #75
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #97 +2.9 #96
Freethrows 19.3 #98 75% #103 14.5 #74
Second Chance 26.2% #296 1.13 #75 0.30 #227
Turnovers 17.2% #229
Total Offense -0.4 #177

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #143 1.19 #221 -1.5 #229
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #275 0.67 #54 +1.9 #53
Three Pointers 42% #142 1.11 #297 -2.5 #292
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #249 -2.2 #247
Freethrows 19.1 #280 75% #273 14.3 #299
Second Chance 30.4% #171 1.00 #121 0.30 #137
Turnovers 17.7% #99
Total Defense -1.0 #208

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #214 1.0% #255
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.0% #85 3.3% #242
Possession Length 16.2 #73 17.6 #243
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #192 0.17 #176
Improvement +0.2 #163 -1.2 #265

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 4.6% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 70.8% 76.2% 48.4%
.500 or above in Conference 67.8% 73.6% 43.8%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.5% 4.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round4.2% 4.6% 2.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 80.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 32 - 4
Quad 35 - 67 - 11
Quad 49 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 147 North Dakota St. W 80 - 68 53% +2  1 - 0 +10 +7 A+ A+ F +3 A+ F C+
 Sun, Nov 9 210 @Portland L 63 - 67 45% +0  1 - 1 -4 -9 F B- F +4 B+ A- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 290 Sacramento St. W 77 - 73 80% -2  2 - 1 -6 -4 F C D -3 D C+ A
 Tue, Nov 18 80 @Nevada W 75 - 71 13% -0  3 - 1 +14 +2 A+ F F +12 B- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 78 @Colorado L 79 - 95 13% -6  3 - 2 -5 +10 B A+ D+ -16 F C- C
 Mon, Nov 24 312 Louisiana W 77 - 56 84% +8  4 - 2 +9 +6 A+ D+ B +4 C+ B A+
 Thu, Dec 4 106 @Hawaii L 69 - 75 20% -6  4 - 3 0 - 1 +1 +3 C+ D B -1 F B- B
 Sat, Dec 13 68 @Oregon L 62 - 104 12% -30  4 - 4 -31 -8 F F F -22 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 121 Seattle L 78 - 79 45% -4  4 - 5 -1 +6 A+ F A -7 C F A
 Sun, Dec 21 219 @Idaho St. W 93 - 83 46% +8  5 - 5 +10 +24 A+ C A+ -13 F C- C
 Thu, Jan 1 207 Cal St. Northridge W 89 - 80 66% +6  6 - 5 1 - 1 +3 +6 A+ F F -3 C- B+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 299 Cal St. Bakersfield L 79 - 81 81% +2  6 - 6 1 - 2 -13 +0 C+ C- F -13 D- D- F
 Thu, Jan 8 144 @UC Santa Barbara W 93 - 86 30% -3  7 - 6 2 - 2 +11 +17 A+ B- B- -6 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 281 @Cal Poly L 78 - 84 58% +6  7 - 7 2 - 3 -10 -1 F D C -9 B- C- F
 Thu, Jan 15 229 Cal St. Fullerton W 74 - 69 70% +9  8 - 7 3 - 3 -2 -6 D B F +3 A D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 123 UC Irvine W 75 - 72 46% +2  9 - 7 4 - 3 +2 +7 D+ A- B+ -5 D- B- A
 Thu, Jan 22 109 UC San Diego L 74 - 80 41% -1  9 - 8 4 - 4 -5 -3 D- F C+ -2 D A A+
 Sat, Jan 24 293 UC Riverside W 79 - 70 81%
 Thu, Jan 29 207 @Cal St. Northridge L 81 - 83 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 299 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 78 - 75 62%
 Thu, Feb 5 144 UC Santa Barbara W 76 - 75 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 281 Cal Poly W 87 - 79 78%
 Thu, Feb 12 109 @UC San Diego L 71 - 79 21%
 Sat, Feb 14 250 Long Beach St. W 78 - 72 72%
 Thu, Feb 19 229 @Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 81 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 293 @UC Riverside W 76 - 73 62%
 Thu, Feb 26 106 Hawaii L 71 - 74 39%
 Thu, Mar 5 250 @Long Beach St. W 76 - 75 52%
 Sat, Mar 7 123 @UC Irvine L 69 - 76 26%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 10 -1 +0 B- C- C- -1 D+ C+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.8 0.3 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.9 4.5 0.8 11.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 8.4 7.7 1.4 0.0 19.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 9.4 8.5 1.8 0.1 22.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 6.8 7.3 1.6 0.0 16.8 6th
7th 0.4 4.1 5.6 1.3 0.1 11.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 3.7 1.2 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.7 0.1 3.3 9th
10th 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.6 4.5 9.7 16.0 20.1 19.7 14.9 8.7 3.4 0.9 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 62.9% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1
14-6 23.6% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 35.0% 35.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.9% 22.5% 22.5% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-6 3.4% 17.8% 17.8% 13.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.8
13-7 8.7% 11.3% 11.3% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 7.7
12-8 14.9% 6.1% 6.1% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 14.0
11-9 19.7% 3.8% 3.8% 14.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 19.0
10-10 20.1% 2.2% 2.2% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 19.7
9-11 16.0% 1.3% 1.3% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 15.8
8-12 9.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 9.6
7-13 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.5
6-14 1.6% 1.6
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 13.7 95.8 0.0%