Seattle
Western Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#162
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#241
Pace66.7#224
Improvement-0.6#214

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#199
First Shot-3.2#268
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#45
Layup/Dunks-4.6#333
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#271
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#221
Freethrows+4.5#4
Improvement-3.2#329

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#142
First Shot-0.9#206
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#43
Layups/Dunks-1.6#239
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#151
Freethrows+0.4#158
Improvement+2.6#47
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 8.3% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.6
.500 or above 7.0% 8.5% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 67.8% 75.1% 41.5%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.6% 3.2%
First Four1.6% 1.6% 1.8%
First Round6.9% 7.8% 3.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 78.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 31 - 103 - 13
Quad 49 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 252   @ Eastern Washington L 86-93 62%     0 - 1 -9.8 +10.0 -19.6
  Nov 09, 2024 90   Liberty L 64-66 37%     0 - 2 +1.7 -0.7 +2.2
  Nov 14, 2024 276   @ Cal Poly L 71-75 66%     0 - 3 -7.9 -8.4 +0.7
  Nov 16, 2024 65   @ UC San Diego W 84-71 16%     1 - 3 +23.7 +23.7 +1.0
  Nov 26, 2024 165   Furman L 56-61 50%     1 - 4 -4.9 -10.7 +5.2
  Nov 29, 2024 2   @ Duke L 48-70 2%     1 - 5 +3.5 -10.6 +13.4
  Dec 04, 2024 215   Portland St. W 91-74 71%     2 - 5 +11.5 +19.9 -7.7
  Dec 07, 2024 143   @ UTEP L 72-88 37%     2 - 6 -12.3 +3.3 -15.8
  Dec 17, 2024 115   @ Western Kentucky L 73-86 31%     2 - 7 -7.6 +5.7 -13.3
  Dec 20, 2024 123   Illinois-Chicago L 68-79 52%     2 - 8 -11.4 -9.5 -1.4
  Dec 23, 2024 89   @ Washington W 79-70 21%     3 - 8 +17.7 +9.6 +7.9
  Dec 30, 2024 197   Nicholls St. L 69-71 67%     3 - 9 -6.2 -4.5 -1.7
  Jan 04, 2025 161   @ California Baptist L 59-61 40%     3 - 10 0 - 1 +0.8 -8.5 +9.1
  Jan 11, 2025 242   Abilene Christian W 66-64 76%     4 - 10 1 - 1 -5.3 -1.7 -3.5
  Jan 16, 2025 292   Utah Tech W 82-62 82%     5 - 10 2 - 1 +10.4 +8.1 +3.3
  Jan 18, 2025 268   Southern Utah W 75-52 80%     6 - 10 3 - 1 +14.5 +1.5 +13.7
  Jan 23, 2025 200   @ Texas Arlington L 56-65 48%     6 - 11 3 - 2 -8.3 -9.3 -0.4
  Jan 25, 2025 132   Utah Valley L 66-70 54%     6 - 12 3 - 3 -4.9 -1.6 -3.4
  Jan 30, 2025 74   @ Grand Canyon L 74-83 18%     6 - 13 3 - 4 +1.0 +2.8 -1.2
  Feb 06, 2025 247   Tarleton St. W 69-61 78%    
  Feb 08, 2025 200   Texas Arlington W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 13, 2025 242   @ Abilene Christian W 69-66 57%    
  Feb 15, 2025 247   @ Tarleton St. W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 132   @ Utah Valley L 67-71 34%    
  Feb 27, 2025 161   California Baptist W 70-68 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 74   Grand Canyon L 70-75 35%    
  Mar 06, 2025 268   @ Southern Utah W 73-69 63%    
  Mar 08, 2025 292   @ Utah Tech W 73-68 65%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.2 0.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.2 2.0 0.6 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.4 12.0 12.2 3.7 0.2 31.6 3rd
4th 0.0 4.0 15.0 9.2 1.8 0.1 30.1 4th
5th 0.0 2.0 9.7 5.2 0.3 17.3 5th
6th 0.8 5.6 3.8 0.2 10.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 2.3 0.3 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.1 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.7 9.9 17.8 23.9 21.7 15.2 6.0 1.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 24.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 3.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 1.0% 28.3% 28.3% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7
11-5 6.0% 16.5% 16.5% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 5.0
10-6 15.2% 12.3% 12.3% 14.9 0.3 1.5 0.1 13.4
9-7 21.7% 8.8% 8.8% 15.4 1.1 0.8 19.8
8-8 23.9% 6.4% 6.4% 15.8 0.2 1.3 22.3
7-9 17.8% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.6 17.2
6-10 9.9% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.3 9.7
5-11 3.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 3.6
4-12 0.7% 0.7
3-13 0.1% 0.0 0.1
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 3.0 3.0 92.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.6 3.6 39.3 53.6 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%