UTEP
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#241
Expected Predictive Rating-10.9#316
Pace64.6#307
Improvement+0.2#169

Offense
Total Offense-5.2#313
First Shot-5.7#322
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#152
Layup/Dunks-3.6#302
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#252
Freethrows-3.0#324
Improvement-0.3#207

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#146
First Shot+1.6#122
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#249
Layups/Dunks+1.2#137
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#94
Freethrows-2.5#313
Improvement+0.5#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.2% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 9.0% 20.2% 7.1%
.500 or above in Conference 27.3% 38.2% 25.4%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.6% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.5% 11.8% 19.6%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round1.4% 2.1% 1.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Away) - 15.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 33 - 93 - 15
Quad 46 - 49 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 143 Loyola Marymount L 58-71 39%     0 - 1 -14.7 -6.7 -9.5
  Sat, Nov 15 51 @Utah St. L 51-75 6%     0 - 2 -10.4 -14.2 +3.1
  Mon, Nov 24 118 William & Mary L 63-74 23%     0 - 3 -7.8 -11.0 +3.8
  Tue, Nov 25 112 UAB L 59-75 22%     0 - 4 -12.3 -5.5 -8.5
  Sun, Dec 7 114 @Seattle L 60-71 15%    
  Sun, Dec 14 108 @Hawaii L 62-74 14%    
  Sun, Dec 21 231 Norfolk St. W 65-62 60%    
  Mon, Dec 29 188 @Louisiana Tech L 60-65 31%    
  Fri, Jan 2 242 @Missouri St. L 61-64 39%    
  Sun, Jan 4 207 @Florida International L 67-72 34%    
  Thu, Jan 8 138 Middle Tennessee L 67-70 39%    
  Sat, Jan 10 123 Western Kentucky L 69-73 35%    
  Thu, Jan 15 287 @Delaware L 67-68 47%    
  Sat, Jan 17 98 @Liberty L 61-74 13%    
  Thu, Jan 22 207 Florida International W 70-69 55%    
  Sat, Jan 24 242 Missouri St. W 64-61 60%    
  Wed, Jan 28 188 Louisiana Tech W 63-62 52%    
  Sat, Jan 31 287 Delaware W 70-65 69%    
  Wed, Feb 4 133 @Sam Houston St. L 67-76 21%    
  Sat, Feb 7 116 New Mexico St. L 62-67 34%    
  Wed, Feb 11 238 @Jacksonville St. L 61-64 40%    
  Sat, Feb 14 98 Liberty L 64-71 29%    
  Sat, Feb 21 116 @New Mexico St. L 59-70 18%    
  Thu, Feb 26 138 @Middle Tennessee L 64-73 22%    
  Sat, Feb 28 123 @Western Kentucky L 66-76 19%    
  Thu, Mar 5 162 Kennesaw St. L 74-75 47%    
  Sat, Mar 7 238 Jacksonville St. W 64-61 60%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.1 0.8 0.1 5.0 4th
5th 0.3 2.2 2.8 1.2 0.1 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.5 1.7 0.2 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 11.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.7 5.8 3.2 0.7 0.0 12.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.3 5.1 3.6 0.7 0.1 13.4 10th
11th 0.3 1.3 3.7 4.5 2.9 0.5 0.0 13.3 11th
12th 0.2 1.1 2.5 3.6 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 12.2 12th
Total 0.2 1.1 2.8 4.9 7.3 9.8 11.4 12.8 11.8 10.6 8.9 6.8 4.9 2.8 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 77.4% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-4 61.1% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 40.5% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 6.5% 6.5% 13.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.5% 16.0% 16.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-5 1.1% 10.0% 10.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-6 2.0% 10.8% 10.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8
13-7 2.8% 6.9% 6.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.6
12-8 4.9% 5.3% 5.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 4.7
11-9 6.8% 3.2% 3.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.6
10-10 8.9% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.8
9-11 10.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.5
8-12 11.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.7
7-13 12.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.7
6-14 11.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.4
5-15 9.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.8
4-16 7.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.3
3-17 4.9% 4.9
2-18 2.8% 2.8
1-19 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%