UTEP
Conference USA
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#143
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#112
Pace69.8#135
Improvement+0.2#175

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#186
First Shot+1.5#129
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#299
Layup/Dunks+0.3#170
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#184
Freethrows+2.2#64
Improvement+0.9#135

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#130
First Shot+2.6#94
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#268
Layups/Dunks+5.0#40
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#201
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#147
Freethrows-3.5#354
Improvement-0.7#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 9.3% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 13.6
.500 or above 92.7% 98.3% 88.4%
.500 or above in Conference 69.5% 84.9% 57.8%
Conference Champion 6.5% 11.5% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.0% 0.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.8% 9.3% 6.6%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Away) - 43.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 23 - 33 - 4
Quad 38 - 711 - 12
Quad 47 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 132   @ Utah Valley L 60-89 39%     0 - 1 -24.9 -13.5 -8.7
  Nov 20, 2024 158   @ UC Santa Barbara W 79-76 43%     1 - 1 +5.9 +9.7 -3.7
  Nov 25, 2024 146   San Jose St. L 65-71 50%     1 - 2 -4.9 -7.4 +2.4
  Nov 26, 2024 305   Long Beach St. W 70-44 81%     2 - 2 +17.8 -5.7 +24.5
  Nov 27, 2024 159   UNC Greensboro W 64-58 53%     3 - 2 +6.4 +1.0 +6.3
  Dec 07, 2024 162   Seattle W 88-72 63%     4 - 2 +13.7 +16.4 -2.4
  Dec 11, 2024 27   @ Louisville L 74-77 8%     4 - 3 +13.9 +8.9 +5.0
  Dec 16, 2024 247   Tarleton St. W 67-62 80%     5 - 3 -2.6 +0.8 -3.0
  Dec 20, 2024 284   Jackson St. W 67-61 84%     6 - 3 -3.2 -6.8 +3.7
  Dec 21, 2024 69   Yale W 75-74 34%     7 - 3 +6.4 +3.8 +2.6
  Jan 02, 2025 113   Louisiana Tech W 70-60 52%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +10.7 +1.1 +10.2
  Jan 04, 2025 181   Sam Houston St. W 81-72 68%     9 - 3 2 - 0 +5.4 +7.6 -1.9
  Jan 11, 2025 166   New Mexico St. L 57-85 64%     9 - 4 2 - 1 -30.5 -9.5 -23.8
  Jan 16, 2025 90   @ Liberty W 72-70 24%     10 - 4 3 - 1 +10.7 +6.6 +4.1
  Jan 18, 2025 243   @ Florida International W 81-73 64%     11 - 4 4 - 1 +5.6 +12.7 -6.8
  Jan 23, 2025 130   Jacksonville St. L 66-73 57%     11 - 5 4 - 2 -7.7 -7.0 -0.8
  Jan 25, 2025 170   Kennesaw St. W 73-71 64%     12 - 5 5 - 2 -0.6 -3.5 +2.7
  Jan 30, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky L 74-78 34%     12 - 6 5 - 3 +1.4 +0.7 +1.1
  Feb 01, 2025 120   @ Middle Tennessee L 68-71 36%     12 - 7 5 - 4 +1.8 +2.8 -1.2
  Feb 08, 2025 166   @ New Mexico St. L 68-69 43%    
  Feb 13, 2025 243   Florida International W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 15, 2025 90   Liberty L 66-69 42%    
  Feb 20, 2025 170   @ Kennesaw St. L 75-76 44%    
  Feb 22, 2025 130   @ Jacksonville St. L 68-71 37%    
  Feb 27, 2025 115   Western Kentucky W 76-75 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 120   Middle Tennessee W 72-71 57%    
  Mar 06, 2025 181   @ Sam Houston St. L 73-74 48%    
  Mar 08, 2025 113   @ Louisiana Tech L 67-72 32%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.9 3.3 2.0 0.4 6.5 1st
2nd 0.5 5.0 2.8 0.2 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.9 6.9 0.7 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 10.1 2.1 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.4 6.9 6.9 0.1 14.3 5th
6th 0.1 4.0 10.1 1.2 15.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 9.1 4.0 0.0 15.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 6.2 4.5 0.4 13.6 8th
9th 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.6 2.9 9.0 18.0 22.6 22.6 15.0 6.9 2.2 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
13-5 90.8% 2.0    1.2 0.7 0.1
12-6 48.5% 3.3    0.8 1.4 0.9 0.3
11-7 6.0% 0.9    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.5% 6.5 2.3 2.1 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.4% 31.4% 31.4% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
13-5 2.2% 17.1% 17.1% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.8
12-6 6.9% 12.2% 12.2% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 6.0
11-7 15.0% 11.8% 11.8% 13.2 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 13.2
10-8 22.6% 9.0% 9.0% 13.5 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 20.6
9-9 22.6% 7.0% 7.0% 13.7 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 21.0
8-10 18.0% 4.3% 4.3% 14.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 17.3
7-11 9.0% 3.2% 3.2% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 8.7
6-12 2.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 2.9
5-13 0.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 13.5 0.1 0.8 3.3 2.7 0.9 0.0 92.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%