Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#124
Expected Predictive Rating+3.3#116
Pace63.4#306
Improvement+2.1#108

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#146
First Shot+0.7#145
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#170
Layup/Dunks-0.2#188
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#113
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#205
Freethrows+0.7#134
Improvement-2.4#293

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#130
First Shot-0.8#209
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#37
Layups/Dunks+4.4#45
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.1#359
Freethrows+1.1#109
Improvement+4.5#19
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.0% 19.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 13.0 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.0% 19.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.8% 1.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 310 - 512 - 10
Quad 46 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 300   @ Air Force L 67-73 76%     0 - 1 -11.2 -0.9 -10.8
  Nov 13, 2024 252   Georgia St. W 72-67 83%     1 - 1 -2.7 -10.7 +7.8
  Nov 17, 2024 317   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-53 80%     2 - 1 +11.4 +8.4 +6.7
  Nov 21, 2024 163   East Carolina W 86-78 59%     3 - 1 +7.8 +13.7 -5.7
  Nov 22, 2024 248   Toledo L 80-82 75%     3 - 2 -6.7 +4.3 -11.2
  Nov 23, 2024 165   James Madison L 65-71 60%     3 - 3 -6.3 -3.3 -3.7
  Dec 08, 2024 131   @ South Alabama L 74-76 41%     3 - 4 +2.6 +9.8 -7.3
  Dec 14, 2024 115   Utah Valley W 70-66 57%     4 - 4 +4.5 +1.1 +3.5
  Dec 17, 2024 19   @ Missouri L 72-83 6%     4 - 5 +8.5 +14.4 -7.5
  Dec 21, 2024 198   @ Eastern Kentucky W 91-80 56%     5 - 5 +11.8 +17.8 -5.8
  Jan 04, 2025 137   @ Kennesaw St. L 71-83 43%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -7.8 +3.8 -12.0
  Jan 09, 2025 154   @ Western Kentucky W 73-67 47%     6 - 6 1 - 1 +9.0 +3.3 +5.7
  Jan 11, 2025 118   @ Middle Tennessee L 64-81 37%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -11.3 -6.4 -4.8
  Jan 16, 2025 119   Louisiana Tech W 63-61 59%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +2.0 +5.1 -2.6
  Jan 18, 2025 170   Sam Houston St. W 70-62 71%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +4.7 +1.0 +4.6
  Jan 23, 2025 159   @ UTEP W 73-66 48%     9 - 7 4 - 2 +9.9 +4.0 +6.0
  Jan 25, 2025 125   @ New Mexico St. W 65-59 40%     10 - 7 5 - 2 +10.9 +1.2 +9.9
  Jan 30, 2025 257   Florida International W 71-67 83%     11 - 7 6 - 2 -3.9 +0.8 -4.5
  Feb 01, 2025 71   Liberty W 72-61 39%     12 - 7 7 - 2 +16.0 +10.4 +6.7
  Feb 06, 2025 118   Middle Tennessee W 77-63 58%     13 - 7 8 - 2 +14.2 +9.1 +6.0
  Feb 08, 2025 154   Western Kentucky W 85-83 68%     14 - 7 9 - 2 -0.5 +12.1 -12.6
  Feb 13, 2025 170   @ Sam Houston St. L 61-66 50%     14 - 8 9 - 3 -2.8 -10.4 +7.4
  Feb 15, 2025 119   @ Louisiana Tech W 70-68 38%     15 - 8 10 - 3 +7.5 +6.3 +1.4
  Feb 20, 2025 125   New Mexico St. L 52-61 61%     15 - 9 10 - 4 -9.7 -8.0 -3.4
  Feb 22, 2025 159   UTEP W 73-65 68%     16 - 9 11 - 4 +5.4 +1.7 +3.8
  Feb 27, 2025 71   @ Liberty L 55-59 22%     16 - 10 11 - 5 +6.6 -3.2 +9.2
  Mar 01, 2025 257   @ Florida International W 84-79 2OT 67%     17 - 10 12 - 5 +2.6 +2.4 -0.5
  Mar 08, 2025 137   Kennesaw St. L 70-74 64%     17 - 11 12 - 6 -5.3 +1.5 -7.1
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 11.0% 11.0% 13.0 2.2 6.2 2.5 0.0 89.1
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 13.0 2.2 6.2 2.5 0.0 89.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.0% 100.0% 13.0 20.5 57.0 22.5 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 16.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 29.8%
Lose Out 42.9%