Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#168
Expected Predictive Rating-1.4#188
Pace62.8#328
Improvement+0.2#176

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#105
First Shot+2.1#114
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#147
Layup/Dunks+0.3#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#102
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#196
Freethrows+1.0#110
Improvement+1.7#82

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#261
First Shot-4.8#325
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#53
Layups/Dunks+3.6#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#151
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.4#361
Freethrows+0.5#141
Improvement-1.5#276
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 7.1% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 29.3% 46.0% 22.4%
.500 or above in Conference 35.6% 53.7% 28.1%
Conference Champion 3.4% 7.5% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 21.3% 10.5% 25.7%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
First Round4.6% 7.0% 3.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 29.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 37 - 88 - 14
Quad 45 - 213 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 279   @ Air Force L 67-73 62%     0 - 1 -9.5 -0.3 -9.8
  Nov 13, 2024 273   Georgia St. W 72-67 81%     1 - 1 -4.5 -8.0 +3.3
  Nov 17, 2024 285   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-53 63%     2 - 1 +14.3 +10.9 +7.1
  Nov 21, 2024 176   East Carolina W 86-78 52%     3 - 1 +7.3 +14.5 -7.1
  Nov 22, 2024 209   Toledo L 80-82 58%     3 - 2 -4.3 +8.0 -12.4
  Nov 23, 2024 127   James Madison L 65-71 39%     3 - 3 -3.6 -0.3 -3.9
  Dec 08, 2024 118   @ South Alabama L 74-76 27%     3 - 4 +4.0 +10.8 -6.9
  Dec 14, 2024 153   Utah Valley W 70-66 59%     4 - 4 +1.3 +1.0 +0.4
  Dec 17, 2024 46   @ Missouri L 72-83 9%     4 - 5 +3.4 +14.6 -12.8
  Dec 21, 2024 225   @ Eastern Kentucky W 91-80 50%     5 - 5 +10.6 +17.5 -6.7
  Jan 04, 2025 186   @ Kennesaw St. L 71-83 41%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -10.0 +0.5 -10.9
  Jan 09, 2025 122   @ Western Kentucky L 73-79 29%    
  Jan 11, 2025 132   @ Middle Tennessee L 69-75 31%    
  Jan 16, 2025 133   Louisiana Tech W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 18, 2025 149   Sam Houston St. W 77-75 59%    
  Jan 23, 2025 125   @ UTEP L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 25, 2025 155   @ New Mexico St. L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 30, 2025 222   Florida International W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 75   Liberty L 65-69 34%    
  Feb 06, 2025 132   Middle Tennessee W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 08, 2025 122   Western Kentucky W 77-76 50%    
  Feb 13, 2025 149   @ Sam Houston St. L 74-78 36%    
  Feb 15, 2025 133   @ Louisiana Tech L 66-71 31%    
  Feb 20, 2025 155   New Mexico St. W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 125   UTEP W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 27, 2025 75   @ Liberty L 61-72 17%    
  Mar 01, 2025 222   @ Florida International L 71-72 50%    
  Mar 08, 2025 186   Kennesaw St. W 79-75 64%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.3 2.9 0.6 0.1 7.3 3rd
4th 0.3 3.4 4.3 0.9 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.6 5.9 1.4 0.1 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 6.5 2.7 0.1 11.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 6.2 4.2 0.3 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.8 5.1 0.8 0.0 13.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.3 5.0 1.2 0.0 14.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 4.0 3.0 0.9 0.0 13.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.6 6.5 10.1 13.3 14.5 14.4 12.8 9.8 6.6 3.7 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 95.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 83.1% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 63.4% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 29.4% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 5.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 40.0% 40.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 26.7% 26.7% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.8% 23.5% 23.5% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6
13-5 1.7% 14.2% 14.2% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
12-6 3.7% 12.6% 12.6% 12.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.2
11-7 6.6% 11.1% 11.1% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 5.9
10-8 9.8% 9.1% 9.1% 13.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 8.9
9-9 12.8% 6.7% 6.7% 14.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 11.9
8-10 14.4% 4.7% 4.7% 15.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 13.7
7-11 14.5% 2.9% 2.9% 15.7 0.1 0.3 14.1
6-12 13.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 13.1
5-13 10.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.0
4-14 6.5% 6.5
3-15 3.6% 3.6
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.1 1.3 0.5 95.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%