Eastern Kentucky
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.0 267
Expected Predictive Rating -8.3 301
Pace 68.5 190
Improvement +1.0 143

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #155 C- B- C- D D
Defense D #335 D- C- D+ D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 25% 365 55% 241 -8.7 365
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 139 38% 166 +0.8 133
Three Pointers 53% 11 34% 193 +5.9 24
1st FG Attempt 0.98 234 -2.0 234
Second Chance 32.6% 115 1.12 63 0.36 78
Turnovers 17.4% 213
Freethrows 0.25 328 72% 191 0.18 322
Total Offense +0.2 155

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 175 63% 311 -2.3 263
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 163 48% 363 -2.3 336
Three Pointers 40% 207 36% 290 -1.1 240
1st FG Attempt 1.13 341 -5.7 341
Second Chance 33.3% 292 1.02 177 0.34 251
Turnovers 15.4% 273
Freethrows 0.33 252 74% 283 0.24 266
Total Defense -6.2 335

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.2 322 +0.0 165
Shot Type Accuracy -0.8 202 +5.6 352
Possession Length 18.6 313 16.2 26
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 191 0.24 351
Improvement +1.9 #94 -0.9 #243

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 4% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 26% 38% 8%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 2%
First Four4% 4% 3%
First Round2% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Away) - 62.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 82 - 13
Quad 49 - 811 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 160 Western Kentucky L 79 - 87 40% +0  47% 0 - 1 D- -11 C- -2 A F C- D- -9 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 14 @Vanderbilt L 62 - 92 1% -19  2% 0 - 2 D -8 D- -7 D- C- C+ C -0 F+ A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 147 @Kent St. L 78 - 93 18% -16  0% 0 - 3 D- -11 D- -8 D- B- F C -1 D- C C+
 Sat, Nov 22 171 Mercer L 83 - 95 41% -11  1% 0 - 4 F+ -16 C+ +3 D B B F -19 F F+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 201 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 82 27% -4  8% 0 - 5 D -11 D -5 F+ C+ C D+ -5 C- F D+
 Sat, Nov 29 212 Wofford L 77 - 83 50% -8  5% 0 - 6 D- -12 D -6 F A B- D -6 C C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 94 @Illinois St. L 78 - 89 10% -9  0% 0 - 7 C- -3 B +7 C+ A- D+ D- -9 F F C+
 Wed, Dec 10 326 @Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 55% +5  80% 1 - 7 C+ +2 C +1 D+ C B- C+ +2 C+ C- C
 Sat, Dec 13 87 Miami (OH) L 69 - 79 19% -9  3% 1 - 8 D+ -7 D -5 D B- D- C- -2 C F+ D
 Wed, Dec 17 184 @Jacksonville St. W 62 - 59 24% +5  87% 2 - 8 C+ +4 D -5 D- A F A- +9 A- A D
 Sun, Dec 21 96 @Wichita St. L 57 - 88 10% -22  2% 2 - 9 F -23 F -10 F+ D A- F -14 F+ F F
 Thu, Jan 1 218 @Queens L 89 - 91 28% -1  36% 2 - 10 0 - 1 C- -2 B+ +9 B- C A+ F+ -11 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 317 @West Georgia L 76 - 88 52% +1  54% 2 - 11 0 - 2 F -19 D+ -3 D B+ B F -16 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 8 344 North Alabama W 88 - 80 81% +3  81% 3 - 11 1 - 2 D+ -7 A- +10 D+ A+ A+ F -16 F C- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 190 Central Arkansas W 79 - 75 OT 46% +1  52% 4 - 11 2 - 2 C -1 C +0 B- C C+ C -1 F+ A+ B
 Thu, Jan 15 152 @Austin Peay L 72 - 74 19% -1  35% 4 - 12 2 - 3 C +1 B+ +8 A+ D+ F D -7 C- F C-
 Sat, Jan 17 283 Bellarmine W 89 - 69 65% +11  86% 5 - 12 3 - 3 B +10 A +12 C+ A+ F+ C+ +0 A D+ D
 Thu, Jan 22 345 @North Florida L 85 - 87 62% -2  16% 5 - 13 3 - 4 D- -11 C- -2 D+ B F+ F+ -9 F F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 308 @Jacksonville L 76 - 81 OT 49% +3  79% 5 - 14 3 - 5 D -11 C +0 D+ A+ F F+ -11 F F B
 Wed, Jan 28 152 Austin Peay L 82 - 90 38% -10  1% 5 - 15 3 - 6 D -11 C+ +2 F B- A+ F -12 F D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 190 @Central Arkansas L 81 - 90 25% -8  1% 5 - 16 3 - 7 D+ -8 C -0 C+ F C- D -7 F+ C+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 243 Florida Gulf Coast W 76 - 74 56% -6  22% 6 - 16 4 - 7 D+ -6 D+ -4 D A- D C- -2 D- A A-
 Sat, Feb 7 333 Stetson W 100 - 88 78% +0  51% 7 - 16 5 - 7 C- -2 A+ +16 B- A A F -18 F F D-
 Wed, Feb 11 187 @Lipscomb L 61 - 75 24% -8  18% 7 - 17 5 - 8 D- -13 F+ -10 D+ D- D D+ -4 D B- C+
 Sun, Feb 15 344 @North Alabama W 77 - 74 62%
 Wed, Feb 18 317 West Georgia W 82 - 75 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 283 @Bellarmine L 79 - 81 43%
 Wed, Feb 25 218 Queens L 83 - 84 50%
 Sat, Feb 28 187 Lipscomb L 79 - 80 45%
Totals 10 - 19 8 - 10 -6 C +0 C- B- C- D -6 D- C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- C C C- 25% 22% 53% D C- C+ B B- C- D- C D D D F D+ F+ 39% 21% 40% C D- D+ C C- D+ C- D+ D+
1.09 55% 38% 34% -1 -1 0.98 33% 1.1 .36 17% .25 72% .18 1.18 63% 48% 36% +6 0 1.13 33% 1.0 .34 15% .33 74% .19
Nov
10		 Western Kentucky C- A+ A+ D+ A+ 10% 42% 48% F A D F F C- D- D- F+ D- F F A F 42% 27% 32% B- F B+ A+ A+ F F A+ D
1.05 100% 64% 32% +14 -5 1.19 24% 0.5 .12 19% .33 65% .21 1.15 68% 50% 26% +4 -1 1.08 28% 0.5 .14 4% .39 64% .25
Nov
12		 Vanderbilt D- C+ C F D 13% 30% 57% F D- D+ C+ C- C+ C- C- C- C F D+ F F 39% 20% 41% C+ F+ D- A+ A+ C+ A- A+ A+
0.85 57% 38% 23% -10 -3 0.76 23% 1.0 .23 19% .32 74% .24 1.26 78% 42% 42% +13 0 1.29 38% 0.6 .22 14% .25 63% .16
Nov
18		 Kent St. D- D+ B+ F F+ 23% 13% 64% C- D- C+ B B- F A- F C+ C D- B- C D 48% 12% 40% F D- B- D C C+ F B F
0.96 54% 43% 28% -6 0 0.89 33% 1.1 .35 23% .38 63% .24 1.14 64% 33% 33% +2 +2 1.10 32% 1.2 .38 20% .56 70% .40
Nov
22		 Mercer C+ F C+ A+ C 19% 42% 39% F D A- C B B C- A- C+ F F D+ F F 30% 30% 40% A F F B- F+ B+ C+ D+ C+
1.16 27% 42% 45% +2 -4 0.98 41% 0.9 .39 15% .25 80% .20 1.33 73% 40% 65% +24 -2 1.46 47% 0.9 .43 20% .31 78% .24
Nov
24		 Northern Kentucky D B- A F D 16% 24% 59% F F+ C- B C+ C C F+ D+ D+ F A B- D 27% 22% 51% A C- C+ F F D+ D- F F
1.00 63% 50% 28% -2 -2 0.94 32% 1.3 .41 20% .33 63% .21 1.15 79% 27% 31% +1 -1 1.02 28% 1.7 .47 15% .35 86% .30
Nov
29		 Wofford D D+ F F+ F 28% 20% 52% D- F B A+ A B- D B D+ D D+ D+ B C- 29% 20% 51% A- C D+ C+ C- F F D+ F
1.07 53% 17% 29% -9 -1 0.82 36% 1.4 .51 14% .26 81% .21 1.15 60% 40% 31% -1 -1 0.98 30% 0.9 .28 8% .49 75% .36
Dec
3		 Illinois St. B C- D+ B+ B 18% 30% 52% F+ C+ B- A+ A- D+ A D- B D- B- F F F 41% 16% 43% D- F C- F F C+ D F F+
1.10 56% 33% 38% +2 -3 1.00 28% 1.3 .36 18% .40 65% .26 1.25 57% 63% 45% +11 +1 1.25 29% 1.6 .46 17% .34 80% .27
Dec
10		 Eastern Illinois C C+ A+ F+ C- 23% 13% 64% D+ D+ C C C B- F A+ D+ C+ C- A+ B- C+ 39% 33% 28% C C+ C+ D C- C C F D
1.08 64% 67% 27% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.1 .38 17% .25 92% .23 0.94 56% 20% 31% -8 -1 0.83 24% 1.1 .27 19% .27 86% .24
Dec
13		 Miami (OH) D F+ D- B D+ 13% 31% 56% F D A+ F+ B- D- A+ C+ A+ C- D+ D- D+ C- 38% 20% 43% C+ C C+ F F+ D A+ A+ A+
1.02 50% 33% 37% 0 -3 0.96 43% 0.7 .30 21% .41 77% .32 1.17 67% 45% 38% +7 0 1.16 23% 1.6 .35 13% .15 33% .05
Dec
17		 Jacksonville St. D F D B- F+ 31% 13% 56% C D- A C+ A F F A+ D- A- A- F A+ A 48% 14% 38% C A- C A+ A D F F F
0.98 29% 33% 36% -8 0 0.87 39% 1.1 .42 27% .22 90% .19 0.93 45% 50% 25% -10 +1 0.86 31% 0.5 .17 16% .47 76% .36
Dec
21		 Wichita St. F A+ F F D- 20% 34% 46% F F+ F A+ D A- F F F F D+ B C- D 54% 5% 41% F F+ C+ F F F A- A+ A
0.85 82% 16% 27% -8 -3 0.80 15% 1.3 .20 13% .12 57% .07 1.31 60% 33% 35% +1 +3 1.11 38% 1.4 .54 10% .23 57% .13
Jan
1		 Queens B+ D+ C+ A B- 38% 9% 53% B- B- F A+ C A+ D+ D+ D F+ F A+ A+ C 53% 8% 40% F D+ C- F F F F D+ F
1.27 55% 40% 43% +6 +1 1.17 23% 1.5 .34 7% .32 71% .23 1.30 75% 25% 24% +2 +3 1.11 32% 1.5 .48 9% .49 77% .38
Jan
3		 West Georgia D+ C- A+ D- D 33% 9% 58% C D C- A+ B+ B F F F F D F A+ F 50% 30% 20% F F F C- F F+ F D- F
1.09 58% 60% 30% -1 +1 1.02 29% 1.3 .39 13% .17 50% .08 1.26 59% 63% 18% +3 0 1.07 41% 1.1 .44 13% .36 77% .28
Jan
8		 North Alabama A- F+ A C+ C- 28% 16% 56% D D+ B+ A A+ A+ A+ A- A+ F F F F F 26% 32% 43% A+ F A- F C- F+ F A+ D
1.34 50% 50% 36% +1 0 1.04 43% 1.4 .60 9% .38 83% .32 1.21 67% 53% 40% +11 -2 1.19 23% 1.4 .33 14% .44 56% .25
Jan
10		 Central Arkansas C C+ F A B+ 15% 11% 75% D B- C B- C C+ F F F C B- F D F 34% 15% 51% C F+ D- A+ A+ B C+ D- C
1.12 63% 17% 41% +7 0 1.15 28% 1.2 .33 18% .12 57% .07 1.06 56% 75% 37% +7 0 1.17 32% 0.3 .11 18% .26 73% .19
Jan
15		 Austin Peay B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 28% 47% F A+ B F D+ F F F F D C+ C+ C C 46% 17% 38% D- C- F C+ F C- D+ D D
1.15 91% 58% 50% +25 -2 1.49 35% 0.5 .17 27% .20 56% .11 1.18 55% 38% 33% -2 +1 1.00 42% 1.1 .47 16% .32 76% .25
Jan
17		 Bellarmine A A+ F A+ B- 22% 13% 64% C C+ A A+ A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ C+ D+ A+ A A 40% 12% 49% C A F A- D+ D F C- F
1.40 80% 0% 45% +10 0 1.22 44% 1.8 .81 19% .41 76% .31 1.09 65% 20% 29% -3 +1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 14% .53 79% .42
Jan
22		 North Florida C- D- D+ B+ D+ 43% 9% 48% B D+ C- A+ B F+ D+ F F F+ D- F D+ F 45% 12% 43% D- F F C+ F D+ D- B- D
1.20 52% 40% 38% +1 +2 1.07 35% 1.5 .53 15% .25 47% .12 1.22 65% 67% 36% +8 +2 1.22 38% 1.1 .41 17% .29 76% .22
Jan
24		 Jacksonville C D A- B- D+ 40% 24% 36% D+ D+ A A- A+ F A+ C+ A+ F+ C+ F C- F 30% 43% 27% A+ F F F+ F B F F+ F
1.11 56% 45% 38% +3 0 1.07 40% 1.2 .47 22% .52 71% .37 1.18 54% 63% 33% +9 -4 1.14 39% 1.2 .46 20% .55 77% .42
Jan
28		 Austin Peay C+ B- F D- F 25% 31% 44% F F A+ D B- A+ A+ A+ A+ F F+ D+ F F 37% 29% 34% A- F B+ F D+ A+ F F F
1.11 64% 24% 29% -6 -2 0.85 43% 0.6 .27 12% .42 89% .37 1.22 67% 42% 50% +12 -1 1.24 23% 1.6 .36 23% .67 92% .61
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Central Arkansas C F+ F A C+ 31% 4% 65% B C+ D F F C- A+ C+ A+ D C F D+ F+ 37% 15% 47% C- F+ B+ F C+ F F A+ C
1.07 50% 0% 41% +3 +2 1.12 24% 0.8 .19 20% .43 73% .31 1.19 59% 67% 36% +6 +1 1.15 21% 1.2 .26 8% .37 50% .19
Feb
5		 Florida Gulf Coast D+ A+ F D- D+ 16% 22% 61% F D C+ A+ A- D A- B+ A C- F D- B- F+ 21% 25% 54% B- D- C+ A+ A A- B- D- C+
1.09 88% 27% 30% -1 -2 0.96 33% 1.3 .44 19% .44 80% .35 1.06 91% 46% 32% +8 -2 1.13 29% 0.7 .21 21% .24 77% .18
Feb
7		 Stetson A+ B A+ D+ B- 35% 15% 51% C B- B- A+ A A A+ A+ A+ F A- F F F 39% 18% 43% D F F F F D- D F F
1.42 68% 75% 32% +8 0 1.18 37% 1.5 .53 10% .41 85% .35 1.25 47% 56% 48% +8 0 1.18 32% 1.2 .38 16% .34 85% .29
Feb
11		 Lipscomb F+ F A+ D+ D+ 33% 24% 43% C D+ B- F D- D F F F D+ C F D+ D- 33% 8% 59% C D F A+ B- C+ C F D
0.93 47% 50% 32% -2 -1 0.96 34% 0.7 .24 20% .19 50% .10 1.15 59% 50% 37% +4 +1 1.12 34% 0.7 .23 17% .24 92% .22



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.3 1.4 1.7 4th
5th 0.1 7.8 16.2 4.4 28.4 5th
6th 2.4 15.5 3.9 21.8 6th
7th 0.1 9.7 7.7 0.2 17.7 7th
8th 1.7 11.2 1.2 0.0 14.1 8th
9th 0.1 7.0 3.4 10.5 9th
10th 1.3 3.5 0.1 4.9 10th
11th 0.8 0.2 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 2.3 12.5 26.8 32.1 20.6 5.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 5.8% 7.3% 7.3% 15.9 0.0 0.4 5.4
9-9 20.6% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 1.4 19.2
8-10 32.1% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 1.2 30.9
7-11 26.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.5 26.4
6-12 12.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 12.2
5-13 2.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 16.0 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 15.9 9.5 90.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%
Lose Out 1.1%