Eastern Kentucky
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.0 #254
Expected Predictive Rating -8.2 #300
Pace 68.5 #196
Improvement +1.3 #116

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #157 C- B- C- F F
Defense #322 D- C- D C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 23% #365 1.11 #238 -9.6 #365
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #133 0.74 #192 +0.6 #145
Three Pointers 54% #5 1.01 #189 +6.8 #19
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #241 -2.1 #241
Freethrows 12.7 #352 70% #254 8.9 #355
Second Chance 31.7% #153 1.17 #43 0.37 #76
Turnovers 17.3% #238
Total Offense +0.2 #157

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #144 1.28 #315 -3.3 #288
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #171 0.91 #352 -1.6 #306
Three Pointers 39% #233 1.04 #217 +0.3 #165
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #316 -4.6 #316
Freethrows 17.4 #190 72% #157 12.5 #176
Second Chance 32.7% #267 1.05 #182 0.34 #243
Turnovers 14.2% #309
Total Defense -5.3 #322

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.7% #328 0.2% #182
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.5% #205 8.8% #327
Possession Length 18.9 #327 16.1 #24
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #269 0.25 #351
Improvement +2.5 #57 -1.1 #260

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.2% 7.5% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 4.0% 7.0% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 55.7% 70.7% 41.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.4% 2.9%
First Four4.6% 4.9% 4.3%
First Round4.5% 5.6% 3.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Away) - 48.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 410 - 712 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 162 Western Kentucky L 79 - 87 43% +0  0 - 1 -11 -0 A F D+ -10 F A F
 Wed, Nov 12 21 @Vanderbilt L 62 - 92 2% -19  0 - 2 -10 -5 F C- C- -3 F A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 18 148 @Kent St. L 78 - 93 20% -16  0 - 3 -11 -7 F B+ F -2 D C B-
 Sat, Nov 22 149 Mercer L 83 - 95 40% -11  0 - 4 -14 +5 D- B+ B -19 F D- A
 Mon, Nov 24 178 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 82 26% -4  0 - 5 -9 -2 F B- C -7 C- F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 215 Wofford L 77 - 83 55% -8  0 - 6 -12 -3 F A+ B -9 C C F
 Wed, Dec 3 90 @Illinois St. L 78 - 89 10% -9  0 - 7 -2 +9 B- A- D -10 F F C+
 Wed, Dec 10 310 @Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 52% +5  1 - 7 +3 +5 C C- C -1 B- C- C
 Sat, Dec 13 89 Miami (OH) L 69 - 79 21% -9  1 - 8 -7 -2 D- B- F -5 C F D
 Wed, Dec 17 216 @Jacksonville St. W 62 - 59 32% +5  2 - 8 +3 -4 F A+ F +7 A- A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 103 @Wichita St. L 57 - 88 12% -22  2 - 9 -23 -10 F F B+ -15 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 177 @Queens L 89 - 91 26% -1  2 - 10 0 - 1 -0 +13 B C A+ -13 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 3 338 @West Georgia L 76 - 88 62% +1  2 - 11 0 - 2 -20 -2 D- B B- -19 F F F
 Thu, Jan 8 328 North Alabama W 88 - 80 79% +3  3 - 11 1 - 2 -5 +13 C- A+ A+ -18 F C F
 Sat, Jan 10 236 Central Arkansas W 79 - 75 OT 58% +1  4 - 11 2 - 2 -3 +2 B+ C- C -5 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 15 171 @Austin Peay L 72 - 74 25% -1  4 - 12 2 - 3 -0 +11 A+ D- F -11 D F C+
 Sat, Jan 17 300 Bellarmine W 89 - 69 71% +11  5 - 12 3 - 3 +9 +15 C+ A+ F -4 A D+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 350 @North Florida L 85 - 87 66% -2  5 - 13 3 - 4 -11 +1 D B- D- -13 F F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 292 @Jacksonville L 71 - 72 48%
 Wed, Jan 28 171 Austin Peay L 75 - 76 46%
 Sat, Jan 31 236 @Central Arkansas L 74 - 78 35%
 Thu, Feb 5 225 Florida Gulf Coast W 80 - 78 56%
 Sat, Feb 7 332 Stetson W 82 - 73 79%
 Wed, Feb 11 174 @Lipscomb L 75 - 82 26%
 Sat, Feb 14 328 @North Alabama W 77 - 75 59%
 Wed, Feb 18 338 West Georgia W 83 - 74 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 300 @Bellarmine L 79 - 80 50%
 Wed, Feb 25 177 Queens L 82 - 83 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 174 Lipscomb L 78 - 79 47%
Totals 11 - 18 9 - 9 -5 +0 C- B- C- -5 D- C- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.5 0.6 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 5.7 6.2 1.5 0.1 15.0 4th
5th 0.0 2.1 9.4 9.1 2.3 0.1 23.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 8.4 9.0 2.1 0.0 20.9 6th
7th 0.3 5.2 7.1 1.4 0.1 14.0 7th
8th 0.0 2.0 5.2 1.6 0.1 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.4 1.9 0.1 5.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.2 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 1.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.9 7.5 13.8 19.4 21.4 17.4 10.7 4.7 1.4 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 51.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 8.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 25.8% 25.8% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 1.4% 19.6% 19.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.1
12-6 4.7% 14.6% 14.6% 15.5 0.4 0.3 4.0
11-7 10.7% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.1 1.0 9.7
10-8 17.4% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 1.6 15.8
9-9 21.4% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 1.4 20.0
8-10 19.4% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.7 18.7
7-11 13.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 13.5
6-12 7.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 7.4
5-13 2.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
4-14 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 15.9 93.8 0.0%