Eastern Kentucky
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#231
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#213
Pace70.5#118
Improvement-1.3#250

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#159
First Shot-3.6#287
After Offensive Rebound+4.4#10
Layup/Dunks-7.8#360
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#10
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#138
Freethrows-2.2#309
Improvement+0.2#177

Defense
Total Defense-4.7#307
First Shot-2.1#247
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#342
Layups/Dunks-1.7#245
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#139
Freethrows-0.6#225
Improvement-1.5#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 6.3% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 43.9% 69.9% 35.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.4% 97.1% 84.2%
Conference Champion 1.3% 4.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round3.8% 6.3% 3.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Away) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 22 - 5
Quad 33 - 54 - 10
Quad 410 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 153   @ East Tennessee St. W 82-78 25%     1 - 0 +7.2 +14.8 -7.4
  Nov 12, 2024 32   @ Clemson L 62-75 4%     1 - 1 +3.4 +1.8 +0.5
  Nov 19, 2024 359   @ Chicago St. W 86-66 77%     2 - 1 +8.3 +4.8 +2.0
  Nov 25, 2024 255   Ball St. L 61-63 56%     2 - 2 -7.5 -13.1 +5.5
  Nov 26, 2024 183   Southern Illinois W 77-72 39%     3 - 2 +3.9 +2.2 +1.6
  Nov 27, 2024 113   Louisiana Tech L 69-78 25%     3 - 3 -5.8 +4.7 -11.4
  Dec 01, 2024 111   @ Troy L 74-84 18%     3 - 4 -4.2 +6.0 -10.3
  Dec 11, 2024 47   @ Pittsburgh L 56-96 6%     3 - 5 -26.7 -12.6 -14.0
  Dec 14, 2024 332   Eastern Illinois W 81-66 81%     4 - 5 +1.8 +0.7 +0.5
  Dec 21, 2024 130   Jacksonville St. L 80-91 38%     4 - 6 -11.7 +7.5 -19.4
  Dec 28, 2024 27   @ Louisville L 76-78 4%     4 - 7 +14.9 +11.2 +3.7
  Jan 02, 2025 341   @ Central Arkansas W 89-83 2OT 70%     5 - 7 1 - 0 -3.3 -3.4 -1.0
  Jan 04, 2025 155   @ North Alabama L 67-88 25%     5 - 8 1 - 1 -17.9 -5.7 -12.3
  Jan 09, 2025 245   North Florida W 79-74 64%     6 - 8 2 - 1 -2.6 -4.7 +2.0
  Jan 11, 2025 179   Jacksonville L 75-82 48%     6 - 9 2 - 2 -10.4 +1.3 -11.6
  Jan 16, 2025 296   @ Austin Peay L 90-97 OT 54%     6 - 10 2 - 3 -11.9 +4.0 -15.0
  Jan 18, 2025 356   Bellarmine W 72-69 87%     7 - 10 3 - 3 -13.0 -5.3 -7.4
  Jan 23, 2025 334   Stetson L 66-67 82%     7 - 11 3 - 4 -14.7 -8.9 -5.9
  Jan 25, 2025 164   Florida Gulf Coast W 81-77 44%     8 - 11 4 - 4 +1.7 +8.3 -6.6
  Jan 30, 2025 110   @ Lipscomb W 80-71 17%     9 - 11 5 - 4 +15.0 +10.7 +4.4
  Feb 01, 2025 296   Austin Peay W 88-82 72%     10 - 11 6 - 4 -3.9 +20.4 -23.7
  Feb 06, 2025 164   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 70-77 25%    
  Feb 08, 2025 334   @ Stetson W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 13, 2025 345   West Georgia W 81-71 84%    
  Feb 15, 2025 213   Queens W 81-80 58%    
  Feb 18, 2025 110   Lipscomb L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 20, 2025 356   @ Bellarmine W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 24, 2025 179   @ Jacksonville L 71-77 29%    
  Feb 26, 2025 245   @ North Florida L 86-87 44%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 0.4 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 1.8 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.6 4.2 1.1 0.0 5.9 3rd
4th 0.5 5.6 5.1 0.1 11.2 4th
5th 0.3 5.6 11.1 1.4 18.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 10.1 18.3 5.9 0.1 35.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.8 9.0 2.8 0.0 17.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.1 1.3 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.3 2.5 9.8 20.8 27.2 23.3 11.9 3.8 0.5 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 88.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
13-5 22.3% 0.9    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.5% 17.8% 17.8% 13.4 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-5 3.8% 8.1% 8.1% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.5
12-6 11.9% 8.0% 8.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 11.0
11-7 23.3% 4.6% 4.6% 15.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 22.2
10-8 27.2% 3.6% 3.6% 15.5 0.5 0.5 26.2
9-9 20.8% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.1 0.4 20.3
8-10 9.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.7
7-11 2.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.5
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 15.3 0.1 0.4 2.1 1.5 96.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%