Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#191
Expected Predictive Rating+6.5#90
Pace75.6#43
Improvement-1.2#277

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#156
First Shot+1.1#148
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#227
Layup/Dunks-5.1#328
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#98
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#54
Freethrows+0.1#177
Improvement-1.3#284

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#247
First Shot-3.0#279
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#141
Layups/Dunks-3.1#292
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#344
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#81
Freethrows+0.5#149
Improvement+0.1#174
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 20.1% 10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.4 14.3
.500 or above 77.2% 94.8% 76.4%
.500 or above in Conference 78.4% 90.4% 77.8%
Conference Champion 13.0% 20.2% 12.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four0.4% 0.0% 0.4%
First Round11.0% 20.1% 10.6%
Second Round0.4% 1.1% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Clemson (Away) - 4.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 413 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 16 @Tennessee L 61-76 3%     0 - 1 +5.2 -1.5 +6.7
  Sun, Nov 9 164 Lipscomb W 92-77 56%     1 - 1 +11.3 +20.5 -8.9
  Sat, Nov 15 107 @Winthrop L 69-105 19%     1 - 2 -28.7 -11.8 -12.0
  Sat, Nov 22 258 @Eastern Kentucky W 95-83 51%     2 - 2 +9.6 +17.0 -7.6
  Wed, Nov 26 283 Appalachian St. W 75-67 76%     3 - 2 -1.6 +7.8 -8.4
  Sat, Nov 29 223 @Elon W 91-84 45%     4 - 2 +6.3 +5.2 +0.4
  Tue, Dec 2 334 Georgia St. W 78-67 86%     5 - 2 -2.5 -0.3 -2.4
  Sat, Dec 13 33 @Clemson L 67-85 4%    
  Wed, Dec 17 63 @Central Florida L 77-91 10%    
  Sat, Dec 20 158 @Washington St. L 79-84 33%    
  Wed, Dec 31 153 @Furman L 74-79 31%    
  Sat, Jan 3 115 @East Tennessee St. L 74-82 22%    
  Wed, Jan 7 363 The Citadel W 84-68 92%    
  Sat, Jan 10 208 Wofford W 82-78 64%    
  Thu, Jan 15 337 @VMI W 82-76 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 293 @UNC Greensboro W 79-77 58%    
  Wed, Jan 21 281 Western Carolina W 83-76 75%    
  Sat, Jan 24 208 @Wofford L 79-81 43%    
  Thu, Jan 29 293 UNC Greensboro W 82-74 78%    
  Sat, Jan 31 337 VMI W 85-73 85%    
  Thu, Feb 5 209 @Chattanooga L 76-78 43%    
  Sat, Feb 7 228 @Samford L 78-79 46%    
  Wed, Feb 11 153 Furman W 77-76 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 363 @The Citadel W 81-71 81%    
  Thu, Feb 19 209 Chattanooga W 79-75 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 228 Samford W 81-76 67%    
  Wed, Feb 25 281 @Western Carolina W 80-79 55%    
  Sat, Feb 28 115 East Tennessee St. L 77-79 41%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.2 3.5 1.9 0.7 0.1 13.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.5 6.2 3.4 1.0 0.1 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 6.2 6.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 17.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.0 5.9 5.8 1.7 0.1 15.6 4th
5th 0.3 1.9 5.4 4.5 1.0 0.0 13.1 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 4.4 3.7 0.9 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.1 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.2 0.3 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.5 6.1 9.2 11.8 13.3 14.2 12.9 10.9 7.9 4.5 2.0 0.7 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 94.4% 1.9    1.7 0.2
15-3 78.2% 3.5    2.4 1.1 0.1
14-4 52.5% 4.2    2.1 1.7 0.4 0.0
13-5 19.6% 2.1    0.6 1.1 0.4 0.1
12-6 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.0% 13.0 7.5 4.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 55.0% 55.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 41.7% 41.7% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.0% 32.3% 32.3% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4
15-3 4.5% 29.2% 29.2% 13.5 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 3.2
14-4 7.9% 22.1% 22.1% 13.9 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 6.2
13-5 10.9% 18.4% 18.4% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 8.9
12-6 12.9% 11.9% 11.9% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 11.4
11-7 14.2% 10.0% 10.0% 14.8 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.2 12.8
10-8 13.3% 7.5% 7.5% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 12.3
9-9 11.8% 5.5% 5.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 11.1
8-10 9.2% 2.8% 2.8% 15.8 0.1 0.2 9.0
7-11 6.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.9
6-12 3.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.4
5-13 1.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-14 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.8 3.5 1.2 88.8 0.0%