Mercer
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.6 171
Expected Predictive Rating -0.2 165
Pace 74.0 53
Improvement -2.8 296

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #146 C- C+ C+ B C-
Defense C- #221 D+ C C+ B C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 237 59% 141 -0.8 208
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 150 35% 274 -0.1 181
Three Pointers 42% 164 33% 213 -0.2 182
1st FG Attempt 1.00 210 -1.0 209
Second Chance 33.9% 84 1.00 218 0.34 115
Turnovers 16.3% 140
Freethrows 0.33 95 75% 96 0.25 80
Total Offense +0.8 146

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 140 55% 105 +0.2 174
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 194 41% 272 -0.3 211
Three Pointers 40% 213 39% 354 -2.7 302
1st FG Attempt 1.07 276 -2.8 277
Second Chance 32.3% 256 0.96 82 0.31 173
Turnovers 17.7% 129
Freethrows 0.26 44 74% 275 0.19 58
Total Defense -1.4 221

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.3 233 +0.2 203
Shot Type Accuracy -0.7 200 +2.5 282
Possession Length 16.6 98 16.8 112
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 47 0.20 284
Improvement -3.4 #330 +0.6 #145

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19% 20% 17%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 98% 99% 93%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 98%
Conference Champion 5% 7% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round19% 20% 16%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: The Citadel (Away) - 79.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 42 - 10
Quad 415 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 18 @Tennessee L 61 - 76 3% -11  7% 0 - 1 B- +6 D+ -3 F D+ A+ A- +9 B+ D A+
 Sun, Nov 9 187 Lipscomb W 92 - 77 66% +8  95% 1 - 1 B +10 A+ +16 A A+ A+ D -5 C- F+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 130 @Winthrop L 69 - 105 30% -16  5% 1 - 2 F -31 F -14 F+ D+ F F -12 F D D+
 Sat, Nov 22 267 @Eastern Kentucky W 95 - 83 59% +11  93% 2 - 2 B +9 A +13 A+ B+ F D+ -4 C C- D+
 Wed, Nov 26 161 Appalachian St. W 75 - 67 60% -3  21% 3 - 2 C+ +5 A- +10 C- A+ C D+ -4 B- F+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 215 @Elon W 91 - 84 47% +1  46% 4 - 2 B- +7 B- +4 C+ F+ A- B- +2 B B A+
 Tue, Dec 2 276 Georgia St. W 78 - 67 80% +5  75% 5 - 2 C +2 C- -2 F+ B- C+ B- +3 F+ A B
 Sat, Dec 13 38 @Clemson L 63 - 70 6% +0  52% 5 - 3 B +10 B- +5 A- D- A B +5 C- A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 52 @Central Florida L 63 - 81 10% -10  0% 5 - 4 C- -4 F -10 F C+ F B +6 B B+ B-
 Sat, Dec 20 125 @Washington St. L 78 - 84 29% -4  13% 5 - 5 C -1 D+ -3 C- C- B- C+ +2 F A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 176 @Furman L 72 - 74 40% -3  12% 5 - 6 0 - 1 C -0 C +1 F+ B+ A C -1 D- B D-
 Sat, Jan 3 126 @East Tennessee St. L 71 - 77 29% -1  36% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C -1 C +1 C F+ C C- -2 A- F B
 Wed, Jan 7 347 The Citadel W 101 - 63 91% +21  99% 6 - 7 1 - 2 A +23 A+ +24 A+ A+ D C+ +1 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 212 Wofford W 109 - 97 70% +7  96% 7 - 7 2 - 2 B- +6 A+ +19 A+ A+ D+ F -14 F+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 360 @VMI W 77 - 67 87% +2  68% 8 - 7 3 - 2 C- -3 C- -2 F A+ F C -0 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 302 @UNC Greensboro W 102 - 92 67% +12  98% 9 - 7 4 - 2 B- +5 A+ +16 A+ A+ F F -12 F B+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 263 Western Carolina W 88 - 76 78% +14  98% 10 - 7 5 - 2 C+ +3 B +6 D- A+ A+ C- -3 C F+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 212 @Wofford L 77 - 80 47% -1  34% 10 - 8 5 - 3 C- -3 C- -0 C- F B- C- -3 D F C+
 Thu, Jan 29 302 UNC Greensboro W 95 - 77 84% +14  86% 11 - 8 6 - 3 B- +7 B+ +8 C A C+ C- -2 B D- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 360 VMI W 95 - 81 94% +4  78% 12 - 8 7 - 3 C- -5 B- +5 D A- B+ F+ -10 F B- D+
 Thu, Feb 5 282 @Chattanooga L 75 - 79 63% +1  52% 12 - 9 7 - 4 D+ -8 D -4 F D C C- -3 F A A+
 Sat, Feb 7 194 @Samford L 49 - 69 45% -15  2% 12 - 10 7 - 5 F -19 F -25 F F C- B +4 C- B- B-
 Wed, Feb 11 176 Furman W 69 - 64 63% -2  23% 13 - 10 8 - 5 C +1 D+ -4 F D+ A B +5 A C+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 347 @The Citadel W 79 - 70 79%
 Thu, Feb 19 282 Chattanooga W 81 - 72 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 194 Samford W 82 - 77 67%
 Wed, Feb 25 263 @Western Carolina W 83 - 81 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 126 East Tennessee St. W 77 - 76 52%
Totals 16 - 12 11 - 7 -1 C +1 C- C+ C+ C- -1 D+ C C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D+ C- C- 36% 22% 42% C- C- B- C- C+ C+ B- B- B C- B- D+ F+ D+ 40% 20% 40% C- D+ C- B- C C+ B D+ B
1.10 59% 35% 33% -1 0 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 16% .33 75% .25 1.11 55% 41% 39% +3 0 1.07 32% 1.0 .31 18% .26 74% .25
Nov
3		 Tennessee D+ F+ F+ F F 31% 25% 44% D+ F C+ F D+ A+ B- B+ B+ A- A+ F F A- 52% 20% 28% D+ B+ C D- D A+ A A+ A+
0.87 44% 27% 23% -14 -1 0.71 25% 0.7 .18 7% .32 71% .23 1.08 42% 50% 43% -2 +1 1.00 46% 1.2 .54 27% .29 60% .18
Nov
9		 Lipscomb A+ A+ F A+ A 43% 22% 34% B- A B A+ A+ A+ F+ D+ F+ D C+ A+ D C- 42% 9% 49% D+ C- F C- F+ C A+ F A
1.34 76% 23% 45% +10 0 1.22 37% 1.4 .50 12% .21 69% .15 1.12 57% 20% 37% 0 +2 1.05 33% 1.1 .36 16% .12 86% .10
Nov
15		 Winthrop F C A+ F D- 27% 29% 43% F F+ F A+ D+ F A F C+ F D+ F F F 42% 19% 39% B- F C- D- D D+ F B+ F
0.85 57% 53% 18% -6 -2 0.86 19% 1.4 .27 23% .42 62% .26 1.30 58% 45% 45% +8 0 1.19 34% 1.2 .39 14% .53 70% .37
Nov
22		 Eastern Kentucky A A D+ A+ A+ 30% 30% 40% F+ A+ A+ D B+ F C- B C D+ A+ D+ F D 19% 42% 39% A+ C F A- C- D+ C F C-
1.33 73% 40% 65% +24 -2 1.46 47% 0.9 .43 20% .31 78% .24 1.16 27% 42% 45% +2 -4 0.98 41% 0.9 .39 15% .25 80% .20
Nov
26		 Appalachian St. A- F C- A C+ 17% 30% 53% F C- A A- A+ C A A+ A+ D+ F C+ A+ C+ 38% 28% 34% A- B- D- D F+ D- A- A+ A
1.21 25% 36% 40% -1 -3 0.94 41% 1.1 .46 14% .36 84% .30 1.08 79% 36% 12% -4 -1 0.92 35% 1.1 .38 13% .24 54% .13
Nov
29		 Elon B- C+ F A B- 31% 17% 52% C C+ F B F+ A- A+ B+ A+ B- C A+ C+ B+ 49% 7% 44% D B F A+ B A+ F D+ F
1.18 59% 22% 43% +5 0 1.11 22% 1.3 .27 12% .44 77% .34 1.09 59% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.02 45% 0.6 .26 23% .44 73% .32
Dec
2		 Georgia St. C- B- D- F D- 33% 20% 47% D+ F+ C+ B B- C+ A+ B+ A+ B- C+ F C F 28% 30% 42% C+ F+ B A+ A B B A+ A
1.10 63% 30% 26% -6 0 0.90 35% 1.1 .38 15% .50 77% .38 0.94 53% 50% 32% +1 -2 1.00 24% 0.7 .16 20% .26 67% .17
Dec
13		 Clemson B- A+ A+ F+ A 27% 31% 42% D- A- F A+ D- A F F F B F+ F B- C- 40% 10% 50% C- C- B A+ A+ C- B+ C- B
0.99 71% 50% 27% +3 -2 1.04 10% 1.3 .13 14% .18 50% .09 1.10 70% 60% 32% +6 +1 1.16 26% 0.3 .06 14% .29 75% .22
Dec
17		 Central Florida F D+ F D- F 33% 29% 38% D- F C+ B- C+ F A+ B- A+ B B+ D C- B 39% 30% 31% B+ B D A+ B+ B- C C- C
0.88 53% 23% 29% -8 -1 0.82 25% 1.1 .28 24% .44 75% .33 1.13 52% 44% 35% 0 -1 1.00 40% 0.9 .38 17% .28 76% .22
Dec
20		 Washington St. D+ C+ A+ F C 28% 33% 39% F C- B F C- B- F F F C+ C F F F 37% 20% 43% C+ F A+ A+ A+ C- D+ A C+
1.04 59% 55% 25% +1 -2 0.98 31% 0.9 .27 13% .22 50% .11 1.12 63% 60% 50% +17 0 1.35 17% 0.4 .07 17% .32 65% .21
Dec
31		 Furman C F C D+ D- 32% 35% 33% F F+ B- A- B+ A F B+ F+ C B- C F D- 45% 14% 41% D+ D- F+ A+ B D- F A D-
1.07 39% 40% 32% -6 -2 0.84 33% 1.2 .40 10% .15 78% .12 1.10 57% 43% 43% +6 +1 1.16 36% 0.6 .22 16% .39 59% .23
Jan
3		 East Tennessee St. C A- F+ D+ C 38% 13% 48% C+ C C+ F F+ C B- D C+ C- A+ F A A+ 58% 7% 35% F A- F C+ F B F F F
1.06 70% 29% 32% +2 +1 1.08 31% 0.5 .17 19% .32 71% .22 1.15 44% 67% 27% -10 +3 0.88 44% 1.1 .50 18% .49 85% .42
Jan
7		 The Citadel A+ C+ A A+ A+ 35% 12% 53% C A+ A+ A- A+ D A A+ A+ C+ A F F D- 34% 10% 56% D- D- D- F F A+ C+ F+ C
1.54 65% 50% 54% +20 +1 1.43 48% 1.3 .60 17% .37 90% .33 0.96 43% 50% 39% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.2 .39 27% .25 75% .19
Jan
10		 Wofford A+ A+ F A+ A+ 54% 10% 35% B+ A+ C A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ D+ F F 41% 8% 51% D F+ D- F F C+ C- D- D
1.42 73% 20% 59% +20 +2 1.46 30% 1.7 .52 17% .49 87% .42 1.27 38% 40% 50% +4 +2 1.14 33% 1.2 .40 16% .34 77% .26
Jan
15		 VMI C- A- C- F F 47% 11% 42% A- F A+ C+ A+ F A+ B- A+ C D+ B- F F 23% 17% 60% B F D+ A+ A C+ A+ D- A+
1.16 71% 40% 11% -8 +2 0.89 59% 1.0 .62 21% .46 75% .35 1.01 58% 33% 41% +5 -1 1.11 28% 0.5 .13 18% .07 75% .06
Jan
17		 UNC Greensboro A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 40% 19% 42% C+ A+ A+ B A+ F A+ B- A+ F F+ D+ F F 40% 18% 42% F+ F B B+ B+ F C+ D- C
1.38 76% 38% 56% +21 0 1.44 44% 1.2 .52 20% .70 73% .51 1.25 65% 40% 42% +8 +1 1.19 24% 0.9 .21 9% .34 74% .25
Jan
21		 Western Carolina B B- A+ F F 44% 11% 44% A- D- A+ C- A+ A+ A+ D- A C- B C- C+ B- 42% 10% 48% F C F C- F+ A C D- C-
1.26 63% 67% 21% -4 +2 0.98 47% 1.0 .47 10% .45 71% .32 1.09 50% 40% 32% -5 +2 0.96 41% 1.0 .41 23% .28 73% .20
Jan
24		 Wofford C- C B- C- C- 43% 13% 44% C+ C- D- F F B- A- A A+ C- B+ C+ F D 52% 21% 27% C D F F F C+ A- F B
1.10 57% 43% 33% 0 +1 1.04 25% 0.2 .06 14% .37 86% .32 1.15 48% 36% 50% +1 +1 1.06 37% 1.2 .43 16% .26 80% .20
Jan
29		 UNC Greensboro B+ C F B C- 26% 12% 62% C+ C B A+ A C+ A- C B+ C- C A+ A- B+ 38% 18% 45% D- B D- D D- D- A D+ B+
1.31 60% 29% 39% +4 0 1.10 36% 1.4 .49 12% .33 71% .24 1.06 57% 20% 28% -7 0 0.88 32% 1.1 .36 12% .28 72% .20
Jan
31		 VMI B- B- A+ F D- 38% 9% 53% B+ D B- A- A- B+ A+ B A+ F+ D+ B- D- F 25% 5% 69% D F B+ D+ B- D+ B- F C-
1.31 65% 80% 29% +2 +1 1.09 43% 1.2 .51 14% .46 76% .35 1.11 57% 33% 37% +3 +1 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 15% .26 81% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Chattanooga D D- F D F 37% 26% 37% D F A F D C A+ B A+ C- F A+ F F 36% 18% 47% D+ F B+ A+ A A+ F C- F
1.04 50% 18% 31% -10 -1 0.81 42% 0.8 .32 14% .69 77% .53 1.09 81% 25% 48% +16 0 1.33 14% 0.7 .10 24% .45 76% .34
Feb
7		 Samford F F F F F 33% 40% 27% F+ F D F F C- C+ C+ C+ B B- F C+ D+ 34% 26% 40% B C- A+ F B- B- C F D
0.74 35% 29% 21% -16 -3 0.63 22% 0.4 .09 14% .30 76% .23 1.05 56% 50% 32% +1 -1 1.02 13% 1.5 .20 15% .36 75% .27
Feb
11		 Furman D+ F B- D- F 53% 14% 33% A F B- F D+ A A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ C A+ 35% 9% 56% C- A B+ D- C+ F B+ B+ B+
1.04 37% 43% 29% -13 +2 0.80 34% 0.8 .27 11% .35 86% .30 0.96 42% 20% 32% -9 +1 0.87 25% 1.1 .28 14% .23 62% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 4.5 5.5 1st
2nd 0.1 5.7 21.0 9.5 36.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.6 22.7 11.0 0.3 38.6 3rd
4th 0.9 8.2 3.6 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 2.5 3.2 0.1 5.8 5th
6th 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.4 4.2 16.1 32.1 33.0 14.2 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 31.3% 4.5    0.7 2.5 1.2
12-6 3.1% 1.0    0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 0.7 2.7 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 14.2% 26.6% 26.6% 13.6 0.2 1.6 1.8 0.3 10.4
12-6 33.0% 22.6% 22.6% 14.2 0.0 0.9 4.1 2.3 0.1 25.6
11-7 32.1% 17.5% 17.5% 14.6 0.1 2.3 2.8 0.3 26.5
10-8 16.1% 13.1% 13.1% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.4 14.0
9-9 4.2% 8.4% 8.4% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.8
8-10 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 15.0 0.0 0.4
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 14.3 80.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.8% 100.0% 13.6 4.2 40.9 47.5 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.1%