Mercer
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.3#239
Expected Predictive Rating-4.7#242
Pace71.9#98
Improvement+0.1#173

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#239
First Shot-1.7#222
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#218
Layup/Dunks+2.8#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#244
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#277
Freethrows-0.3#191
Improvement-1.5#299

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#233
First Shot-2.2#246
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#165
Layups/Dunks-0.6#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#255
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#120
Freethrows-2.5#327
Improvement+1.6#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.9% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.2
.500 or above 30.0% 46.5% 23.4%
.500 or above in Conference 44.5% 52.3% 41.4%
Conference Champion 2.4% 3.6% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 2.4% 4.0%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 0.8%
First Round2.7% 3.7% 2.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Away) - 28.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 84 - 12
Quad 410 - 514 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2024 103   @ DePaul L 64-95 13%     0 - 1 -23.0 -10.7 -9.8
  Nov 16, 2024 202   @ South Alabama L 66-75 30%     0 - 2 -7.8 -5.0 -2.9
  Nov 21, 2024 69   @ South Carolina L 72-84 8%     0 - 3 -0.7 +6.1 -7.1
  Nov 25, 2024 205   Jacksonville W 90-89 OT 41%     1 - 3 -1.0 +8.7 -9.8
  Nov 26, 2024 209   Miami (OH) L 72-75 42%     1 - 4 -5.3 -5.2 +0.1
  Dec 04, 2024 341   West Georgia W 86-72 83%     2 - 4 -0.4 +11.8 -11.2
  Dec 08, 2024 344   @ Stetson W 89-83 OT 67%     3 - 4 -2.8 -0.1 -3.4
  Dec 15, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 75-63 88%     4 - 4 -5.2 -3.4 -1.8
  Dec 18, 2024 270   @ Queens L 66-73 44%     4 - 5 -9.7 -15.0 +5.9
  Dec 21, 2024 187   @ Winthrop L 76-82 29%    
  Dec 28, 2024 263   @ Georgia St. L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 01, 2025 183   Chattanooga L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 347   @ VMI W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 08, 2025 132   East Tennessee St. L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 311   @ Western Carolina W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 15, 2025 112   Samford L 80-85 33%    
  Jan 18, 2025 155   @ Wofford L 69-76 25%    
  Jan 22, 2025 157   @ UNC Greensboro L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 25, 2025 128   Furman L 69-72 37%    
  Jan 29, 2025 355   The Citadel W 76-64 85%    
  Feb 01, 2025 183   @ Chattanooga L 72-78 29%    
  Feb 05, 2025 112   @ Samford L 77-88 16%    
  Feb 08, 2025 155   Wofford L 72-73 45%    
  Feb 12, 2025 128   @ Furman L 66-75 20%    
  Feb 15, 2025 347   VMI W 80-69 83%    
  Feb 19, 2025 355   @ The Citadel W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 22, 2025 157   UNC Greensboro L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 26, 2025 132   @ East Tennessee St. L 68-77 21%    
  Mar 01, 2025 311   Western Carolina W 78-71 74%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.8 3.9 0.8 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 5.0 5.2 1.4 0.0 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.8 6.6 2.0 0.1 18.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 5.5 8.7 6.4 1.8 0.1 24.2 7th
8th 0.3 1.7 4.5 4.9 2.4 0.6 0.0 14.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.1 7.8 11.2 14.1 15.3 14.4 11.8 8.5 5.1 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 93.4% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 60.3% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 23.6% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 8.7% 8.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 25.3% 25.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 21.2% 21.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.4% 17.7% 17.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1
13-5 2.7% 10.2% 10.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.5
12-6 5.1% 7.7% 7.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.7
11-7 8.5% 5.1% 5.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 8.0
10-8 11.8% 4.3% 4.3% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 11.3
9-9 14.4% 3.0% 3.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 13.9
8-10 15.3% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 15.0
7-11 14.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 14.0
6-12 11.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.1
5-13 7.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.7
4-14 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
3-15 2.0% 2.0
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.2 97.0 0.0%