Georgia St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.2 #273
Expected Predictive Rating -5.6 #255
Pace 71.8 #99
Improvement +8.7 #2

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #330 F C- D+ C+ F
Defense #156 C+ C- C C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #363 1.03 #319 -8.2 #361
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #79 0.66 #311 +0.8 #131
Three Pointers 47% #67 0.83 #354 -1.6 #237
1st FG Attempt 0.84 #361 -8.9 #361
Freethrows 16.9 #216 78% #28 13.2 #147
Second Chance 27.0% #284 1.12 #78 0.30 #206
Turnovers 17.9% #268
Total Offense -6.5 #330

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #155 1.14 #154 -0.3 #186
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #233 0.64 #26 +1.9 #49
Three Pointers 42% #156 1.01 #180 -0.2 #189
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #135 +1.3 #135
Freethrows 17.7 #201 75% #272 13.2 #226
Second Chance 33.2% #288 1.02 #145 0.34 #232
Turnovers 16.4% #190
Total Defense +0.3 #156

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.9% #331 0.7% #232
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -15.1% #359 -3.3% #121
Possession Length 17.8 #222 16.8 #87
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #325 0.18 #201
Improvement +4.2 #13 +4.5 #13

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 2.6% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 3.6% 7.6% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 64.6% 82.4% 55.0%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
First Round1.1% 2.1% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 34.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 93 - 12
Quad 48 - 711 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 198 @Eastern Michigan L 49 - 71 26% -8  0 - 1 -22 -21 F F F -1 A+ F B
 Fri, Nov 7 49 @Cincinnati L 64 - 74 4% -6  0 - 2 +4 -2 D+ B D- +6 A C A+
 Mon, Nov 10 266 Presbyterian L 61 - 63 60% +5  0 - 3 -11 -5 F C D+ -6 D+ F A
 Mon, Nov 17 88 @Arizona St. L 62 - 75 8% +1  0 - 4 -4 -9 D- F F +6 C A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 170 @South Dakota St. L 58 - 105 22% -28  0 - 5 -45 -16 F F C -28 F B D-
 Tue, Nov 25 249 Samford L 63 - 78 45% -7  0 - 6 -20 -15 F C+ D -5 D+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 133 New Mexico St. L 58 - 77 23% -9  0 - 7 -17 -19 F F D- +3 B- A- D+
 Tue, Dec 2 149 @Mercer L 67 - 78 18% -5  0 - 8 -7 -7 D+ F D- +0 A- C C
 Sat, Dec 6 150 @Kennesaw St. L 69 - 92 18% -16  0 - 9 -19 -14 F B+ C+ -1 F C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 216 Jacksonville St. W 77 - 73 51% +5  1 - 9 -2 +6 F B- A+ -9 B F F
 Thu, Dec 18 251 @Georgia Southern L 67 - 90 34% -8  1 - 10 0 - 1 -25 -5 D F D -21 C F F
 Sat, Dec 20 206 @Appalachian St. W 70 - 63 27% +4  2 - 10 1 - 1 +7 +1 B F F +7 B- A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 31 163 @Marshall L 80 - 84 20% -2  2 - 11 1 - 2 -1 +3 D+ A- D+ -4 C- F B
 Sat, Jan 3 252 @Coastal Carolina W 89 - 71 34% -1  3 - 11 2 - 2 +16 +24 A+ A+ C+ -7 C+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 206 Appalachian St. L 50 - 52 49% +2  3 - 12 2 - 3 -8 -18 F C- A- +10 A+ B- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 163 Marshall W 81 - 73 39% -3  4 - 12 3 - 3 +5 +2 F A+ F +2 B+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 17 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 77 - 57 74% +9  5 - 12 4 - 3 +7 +1 C- F B+ +7 A+ A- C-
 Thu, Jan 22 244 Southern Miss W 69 - 62 55% +2  6 - 12 5 - 3 -1 -8 F A+ F +7 B+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 145 Arkansas St. L 76 - 80 35%
 Thu, Jan 29 312 @Louisiana L 64 - 65 50%
 Sat, Jan 31 191 @South Alabama L 65 - 72 25%
 Wed, Feb 4 112 Troy L 68 - 75 27%
 Sat, Feb 7 318 Northern Illinois W 74 - 68 73%
 Thu, Feb 12 231 @James Madison L 70 - 75 31%
 Sat, Feb 14 240 @Old Dominion L 70 - 75 33%
 Thu, Feb 19 251 Georgia Southern W 78 - 76 56%
 Sat, Feb 21 231 James Madison W 73 - 72 54%
 Tue, Feb 24 252 Coastal Carolina W 72 - 70 57%
 Fri, Feb 27 240 Old Dominion W 73 - 72 54%
Totals 11 - 18 9 - 9 -6 -7 F C- D+ +0 C+ C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 1st
2nd 0.4 2.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.0 3.6 0.6 8.7 3rd
4th 0.1 3.9 6.1 0.9 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 8.4 2.3 0.1 12.2 5th
6th 0.1 6.2 5.4 0.3 12.0 6th
7th 1.6 8.8 1.2 11.6 7th
8th 0.2 5.5 4.6 0.1 10.3 8th
9th 1.2 7.4 0.8 9.4 9th
10th 0.1 3.9 3.7 0.0 7.7 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 4.4 0.6 6.1 11th
12th 0.3 2.4 1.5 0.0 4.3 12th
13th 0.6 0.9 0.1 1.5 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.9 4.4 11.3 18.8 22.1 19.5 13.0 7.0 2.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 90.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 44.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1
13-5 14.1% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
12-6 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.5% 14.6% 14.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 2.4% 10.6% 10.6% 15.4 0.2 0.1 2.2
12-6 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 15.6 0.2 0.3 6.6
11-7 13.0% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.1 0.3 12.7
10-8 19.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 19.3
9-9 22.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 22.0
8-10 18.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.8
7-11 11.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.2
6-12 4.4% 4.4
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 15.6 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%