Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.9 #251
Expected Predictive Rating -2.8 #215
Pace 75.0 #42
Improvement -0.9 #231

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #191 D+ C B- B- B+
Defense #292 D D B F D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #137 1.01 #336 -2.1 #257
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #339 0.89 #35 -2.5 #301
Three Pointers 48% #44 0.92 #289 +1.4 #133
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #273 -3.2 #272
Freethrows 19.6 #81 71% #248 13.8 #108
Second Chance 28.9% #233 1.08 #137 0.31 #191
Turnovers 15.1% #86
Total Offense -1.0 #191

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #60 1.23 #266 -4.2 #315
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #316 0.86 #317 +1.0 #120
Three Pointers 41% #188 1.05 #227 -0.6 #205
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #300 -3.9 #299
Freethrows 20.9 #331 75% #289 15.7 #338
Second Chance 36.3% #345 1.02 #146 0.37 #299
Turnovers 18.6% #68
Total Defense -3.9 #292

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.5% #37 1.9% #334
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.7% #318 5.6% #280
Possession Length 16.3 #81 16.9 #109
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #245 0.20 #281
Improvement -1.0 #234 +0.1 #179

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 4.0% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 75.6% 89.9% 69.1%
.500 or above in Conference 73.7% 89.0% 66.8%
Conference Champion 1.1% 3.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round2.2% 4.0% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Home) - 31.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 63 - 8
Quad 413 - 716 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 267 @East Carolina L 89 - 92 42% -2  0 - 1 -6 +6 C- A- C -12 D F D
 Sat, Nov 8 205 UNC Asheville W 93 - 90 53% -1  1 - 1 -3 +6 C F A+ -9 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 225 @Florida Gulf Coast W 95 - 94 34% +3  2 - 1 +0 +16 A+ D- C+ -16 D+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 113 @Georgia Tech L 66 - 68 14% +1  2 - 2 +4 -6 F B F +11 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 111 @Florida St. L 72 - 98 14% -14  2 - 3 -19 -10 F F C -6 D B- D+
 Mon, Nov 24 213 Youngstown St. L 61 - 67 43% -4  2 - 4 -9 -12 F F C +2 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 345 Texas San Antonio L 64 - 77 75% +1  2 - 5 -25 -17 F D+ D+ -8 C+ F F
 Sat, Nov 29 298 Houston Christian W 80 - 62 71% +6  3 - 5 +7 +3 C C- A+ +5 B- C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 228 Louisiana Tech W 77 - 69 57% +4  4 - 5 +1 +8 A+ B- C+ -7 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 363 @Gardner-Webb W 88 - 84 85% +3  5 - 5 -12 +2 D F A -14 F D C
 Sat, Dec 13 338 @West Georgia W 91 - 85 63% +9  6 - 5 -2 +10 C- A+ C -12 F F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 273 Georgia St. W 90 - 67 66% +8  7 - 5 1 - 0 +14 +20 D+ A+ A+ -5 F A B+
 Sat, Dec 20 231 James Madison W 96 - 92 OT 58% -3  8 - 5 2 - 0 -3 +7 D D+ A+ -10 B- F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 252 @Coastal Carolina W 82 - 81 OT 39% +3  9 - 5 3 - 0 -1 +3 D B+ D+ -4 A- F B-
 Sat, Jan 3 240 @Old Dominion W 93 - 86 37% +12  10 - 5 4 - 0 +6 +7 B C B- -3 A D F
 Sat, Jan 10 191 @South Alabama L 71 - 87 28% -9  10 - 6 4 - 1 -15 -2 F F A+ -12 F A- A+
 Thu, Jan 15 240 Old Dominion W 87 - 84 59% -2  11 - 6 5 - 1 -4 +10 A+ D+ C- -14 F D C-
 Sat, Jan 17 252 Coastal Carolina L 75 - 79 OT 62% +2  11 - 7 5 - 2 -12 -4 F C+ A+ -7 C+ C- A+
 Thu, Jan 22 145 Arkansas St. L 68 - 85 39% -9  11 - 8 5 - 3 -19 -11 F A+ D -7 F A+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 112 Troy L 76 - 81 31%
 Thu, Jan 29 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 87 - 79 78%
 Sat, Jan 31 312 @Louisiana W 71 - 70 54%
 Wed, Feb 4 263 Texas St. W 78 - 74 63%
 Wed, Feb 11 206 Appalachian St. W 73 - 72 53%
 Sat, Feb 14 163 Marshall L 81 - 83 45%
 Thu, Feb 19 273 @Georgia St. L 76 - 78 44%
 Sat, Feb 21 206 @Appalachian St. L 70 - 75 32%
 Wed, Feb 25 231 @James Madison L 76 - 80 36%
 Fri, Feb 27 163 @Marshall L 78 - 86 24%
Totals 16 - 13 10 - 8 -5 -1 D+ C B- -4 D D B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.6 5.3 4.8 1.0 0.1 11.8 3rd
4th 0.1 4.9 7.6 1.4 0.0 14.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 9.2 2.4 0.1 13.2 5th
6th 0.1 6.2 5.9 0.2 12.4 6th
7th 1.4 8.8 1.4 11.5 7th
8th 0.1 4.8 4.4 0.1 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 6.1 0.8 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.1 3.0 2.8 0.1 5.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 2.7 0.4 3.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 0.8 0.0 2.3 12th
13th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.4 2.5 7.9 15.6 21.9 22.1 16.1 9.1 3.5 0.9 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 75.0% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 41.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 14.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 17.9% 17.9% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.9% 17.9% 17.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7
13-5 3.5% 14.2% 14.2% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 3.0
12-6 9.1% 6.1% 6.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 8.6
11-7 16.1% 3.7% 3.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 15.5
10-8 22.1% 1.5% 1.5% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 21.7
9-9 21.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 21.8
8-10 15.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.6
7-11 7.9% 7.9
6-12 2.5% 2.5
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 14.9 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%