James Madison
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.1 222
Expected Predictive Rating -3.4 221
Pace 64.5 293
Improvement +2.6 79

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #158 C C C C- C+
Defense D+ #276 C C F D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 206 58% 169 -0.5 200
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 261 32% 338 -2.5 298
Three Pointers 46% 77 35% 146 +3.1 80
1st FG Attempt 1.02 170 +0.1 167
Second Chance 28.8% 231 1.07 114 0.31 189
Turnovers 17.3% 201
Freethrows 0.30 208 70% 268 0.21 230
Total Offense +0.1 158

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 162 55% 103 +0.6 149
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 254 35% 78 +1.4 82
Three Pointers 42% 126 35% 240 -1.6 261
1st FG Attempt 1.01 166 +0.5 166
Second Chance 30.6% 186 1.02 176 0.31 191
Turnovers 12.4% 360
Freethrows 0.35 313 73% 221 0.26 309
Total Defense -3.2 276

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.4 130 +0.4 236
Shot Type Accuracy -0.4 186 -0.8 152
Possession Length 18.3 288 17.3 178
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 234 0.16 129
Improvement -1.0 #248 +3.6 #23

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 44% 52% 20%
.500 or above in Conference 24% 31% 5%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Home) - 72.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 54 - 9
Quad 411 - 715 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 72 @Akron L 71 - 85 10% -0  46% 0 - 1 C- -3 D+ -3 C D- F C +0 A+ D F
 Sun, Nov 9 364 Coppin St. W 84 - 70 95% +13  100% 1 - 1 D -9 C- -2 C F C- D -7 C- F B
 Wed, Nov 12 261 @Longwood L 72 - 82 48% -8  11% 1 - 2 D- -13 D+ -3 D+ D B+ F+ -9 B B F
 Sat, Nov 15 207 @LIU Brooklyn L 79 - 88 37% -10  4% 1 - 3 D -9 C- -1 B- D+ D+ D -7 F A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 18 172 Towson W 81 - 75 53% +3  68% 2 - 3 C+ +2 A+ +17 A+ F A F -14 D+ D- F
 Mon, Nov 24 188 @Florida International W 80 - 72 34% -1  28% 3 - 3 B +9 B+ +8 F A+ A C+ +1 B+ A- F
 Tue, Nov 25 249 Nebraska Omaha W 88 - 77 57% +13  90% 4 - 3 B- +6 A+ +16 A+ A+ C F+ -9 F D C
 Sat, Nov 29 89 @George Mason L 66 - 82 14% -1  45% 4 - 4 D+ -7 C- -1 D- C+ A+ D -7 F A D+
 Wed, Dec 3 339 NC Central W 67 - 62 86% +4  81% 5 - 4 D -10 F+ -10 F F+ B+ C+ +0 B+ D- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 307 Norfolk St. W 68 - 67 79% +4  89% 6 - 4 D -11 D -6 F C+ A D+ -5 F C- A-
 Wed, Dec 17 253 @Old Dominion L 68 - 77 46% -6  17% 6 - 5 0 - 1 D -11 D -5 C D- D- D -6 C- A- F
 Sat, Dec 20 274 @Georgia Southern L 92 - 96 OT 51% +3  75% 6 - 6 0 - 2 D+ -7 C+ +3 D- A- C+ F+ -10 C B- F
 Mon, Dec 29 19 @Arkansas L 74 - 103 2% -17  3% 6 - 7 D -8 B +6 A C D F -14 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 3 141 @Arkansas St. W 78 - 74 24% -2  29% 7 - 7 1 - 2 B +8 C+ +3 A D F B +5 B A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 164 Marshall L 64 - 66 51% -8  0% 7 - 8 1 - 3 D+ -5 D -6 D- C+ C- C +0 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 10 253 Old Dominion W 70 - 69 69% -9  10% 8 - 8 2 - 3 D+ -7 F+ -8 B- F+ F C+ +1 A- B- F
 Thu, Jan 15 161 @Appalachian St. L 65 - 80 29% -11  0% 8 - 9 2 - 4 D- -12 B +6 D- B- A F -21 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 164 @Marshall L 72 - 77 29% +0  36% 8 - 10 2 - 5 C- -2 C- -1 C- B+ F+ C -1 A- D C+
 Thu, Jan 22 191 South Alabama L 83 - 90 57% -2  47% 8 - 11 2 - 6 D- -12 C +1 A- C- F F -12 B F F
 Sat, Jan 24 234 Texas St. W 82 - 57 65% +17  92% 9 - 11 3 - 6 A +18 A+ +14 A B+ C+ B+ +7 A A F
 Thu, Jan 29 135 @Troy W 73 - 64 23% +1  55% 10 - 11 4 - 6 B+ +14 B- +4 B+ C D A +11 A+ A F
 Sat, Jan 31 241 @Southern Miss L 65 - 73 44% -5  3% 10 - 12 4 - 7 D -10 D- -6 F B- C+ D+ -4 C+ C+ D+
 Wed, Feb 4 290 Louisiana L 61 - 64 76% -1  28% 10 - 13 4 - 8 D- -13 D+ -4 C C+ C F+ -10 C F+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 165 Toledo W 73 - 71 51% +2  62% 11 - 13 C -1 D+ -2 C- C- D+ C+ +1 C+ B- F
 Thu, Feb 12 276 Georgia St. W 76 - 70 73%
 Sat, Feb 14 161 Appalachian St. W 67 - 66 51%
 Wed, Feb 18 238 @Coastal Carolina L 70 - 72 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 276 @Georgia St. W 73 - 72 51%
 Wed, Feb 25 274 Georgia Southern W 81 - 75 73%
 Fri, Feb 27 238 Coastal Carolina W 73 - 69 65%
Totals 15 - 15 8 - 10 -3 C +0 C C C D+ -3 C C F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C D- C+ C 37% 17% 46% C+ C C- C+ C C C- D+ C- D+ B- B- C- C+ 39% 18% 42% C- C C C C F D C- D
1.09 58% 32% 35% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.1 .31 17% .30 70% .21 1.13 55% 35% 35% -1 0 1.01 31% 1.0 .31 12% .35 73% .22
Nov
3		 Akron D+ D- F A C- 42% 10% 48% B+ C C- F D- F D A+ C+ C A+ F A A+ 51% 6% 43% F A+ D- C+ D F F D F
0.99 50% 0% 40% -3 +2 1.00 32% 0.8 .24 26% .25 92% .23 1.18 42% 67% 27% -11 +3 0.86 38% 1.3 .49 11% .45 79% .36
Nov
9		 Coppin St. C- B A B- C 31% 8% 62% B- C D- F F C- D+ B C- D A+ A+ F C- 40% 24% 36% D C- D- F F B F D F
1.19 69% 50% 38% +8 +1 1.19 30% 0.6 .18 17% .34 80% .27 1.00 35% 10% 53% -5 0 0.90 34% 1.3 .46 26% .69 72% .50
Nov
12		 Longwood D+ B- F D D 46% 10% 44% B D+ F B D B+ D+ F F F+ B+ F+ A+ B+ 43% 20% 37% D B D+ A B F F F F
1.03 67% 20% 30% 0 +2 1.06 19% 1.0 .19 16% .32 53% .17 1.17 50% 44% 24% -8 0 0.87 35% 0.7 .25 10% .67 86% .57
Nov
15		 LIU Brooklyn C- C- C+ A+ B 44% 27% 29% D- B- D+ C- D+ D+ F F F D F F F F 56% 21% 23% F+ F A+ A+ A+ F+ B+ B+ B+
1.04 54% 40% 44% +3 0 1.07 31% 1.0 .31 20% .23 57% .13 1.16 69% 50% 54% +15 +1 1.35 18% 0.4 .07 17% .24 60% .14
Nov
18		 Towson A+ A+ C A+ A+ 34% 11% 55% B A+ F C F A A+ A+ A+ F F A- B D+ 37% 31% 33% C D+ F C- D- F F D- F
1.32 73% 40% 50% +19 +1 1.41 9% 1.0 .09 11% .39 81% .31 1.22 68% 31% 29% 0 -1 0.98 45% 0.8 .37 11% .42 74% .31
Nov
24		 Florida International B+ F C F F 32% 10% 58% C+ F A+ B+ A+ A A+ C+ A+ C+ A+ F D+ B+ 38% 15% 47% C- B+ D A+ A- F F A D-
1.18 38% 40% 21% -18 +1 0.68 51% 1.2 .59 15% .52 73% .38 1.07 30% 63% 36% -5 +1 0.92 35% 0.7 .25 10% .45 59% .26
Nov
25		 Nebraska Omaha A+ C F A+ A+ 35% 12% 53% C+ A+ C A+ A+ C F A+ F F+ F C+ F+ F 32% 16% 52% C- F D- C D C A+ C+ A
1.36 61% 17% 56% +16 +1 1.35 30% 1.8 .52 14% .14 88% .13 1.19 75% 38% 38% +9 0 1.20 31% 1.1 .34 17% .19 70% .13
Nov
29		 George Mason C- B- F C- D 24% 25% 51% D D- D A+ C+ A+ C- A- C D F+ F D+ F 41% 17% 41% D+ F A+ F A D+ F F+ F
0.99 62% 14% 32% -7 -2 0.85 23% 1.2 .28 9% .23 79% .18 1.24 71% 57% 35% +9 +1 1.22 16% 1.3 .20 15% .64 78% .50
Dec
3		 NC Central F+ F F C- F 38% 10% 53% B F D- F+ F+ B+ A+ D A+ C+ A A B A- 42% 17% 42% D- B+ C+ F D- C- B B- B
1.05 40% 25% 33% -8 +1 0.88 32% 0.8 .26 16% .60 69% .41 0.97 45% 25% 30% -10 +1 0.83 27% 1.2 .33 17% .28 73% .21
Dec
6		 Norfolk St. D A- F F F 31% 15% 54% D+ F F A+ C+ A B- F D D+ F C- D F 42% 40% 18% A- F C- C- C- A- C A+ A
1.05 73% 29% 23% -5 0 0.92 22% 1.6 .36 12% .39 55% .21 1.03 74% 39% 38% +8 -2 1.13 31% 1.0 .31 23% .34 47% .16
Dec
17		 Old Dominion D A+ B+ F C- 40% 15% 45% C+ C F+ C- D- D- C- D+ D+ D B- B+ C- C 33% 16% 51% F+ C- B A+ A- F F F F
1.01 79% 43% 19% -1 +1 1.02 22% 1.0 .22 18% .33 72% .24 1.15 53% 29% 35% -2 0 0.98 22% 0.8 .16 9% .54 82% .44
Dec
20		 Georgia Southern C+ C A F F 54% 8% 38% A- D- A- B- A- C+ A+ C- A+ F+ B- F A C+ 51% 8% 41% F+ C C B B- F F D- F
1.17 59% 50% 21% -6 +3 0.96 45% 1.1 .50 18% .59 74% .43 1.22 50% 80% 25% -6 +2 0.95 27% 1.0 .27 8% .54 77% .41
Dec
29		 Arkansas B B B+ B A 27% 14% 59% C A B- D- C D A A- A+ F D- B+ F F 34% 17% 49% C+ F D- F+ F F+ F A+ F
1.06 62% 43% 34% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.1 .35 20% .34 74% .25 1.47 72% 33% 50% +16 0 1.34 40% 1.4 .57 9% .49 65% .31
Jan
3		 Arkansas St. C+ B+ C- A+ A 45% 23% 32% C+ A C- F D F A+ F B+ B F+ A+ A B+ 35% 17% 48% B- B C- A+ A+ F F A+ C-
1.10 67% 36% 47% +10 0 1.21 24% 0.9 .21 21% .46 62% .29 1.04 68% 11% 27% -6 0 0.91 39% 0.6 .24 11% .43 59% .25
Jan
7		 Marshall D C F F F+ 35% 19% 46% B- D- B- C C+ C- F F F C A+ F A A+ 29% 27% 43% C+ A+ C- D- D F D+ D+ D+
1.03 59% 22% 27% -7 0 0.88 36% 0.9 .33 18% .26 62% .16 1.07 33% 50% 27% -8 -2 0.82 33% 1.2 .41 10% .29 75% .21
Jan
10		 Old Dominion F+ A+ D- F B- 52% 23% 25% C+ B- D+ F F+ F A+ B+ A+ C+ A+ C- C- A- 33% 30% 37% B- A- B C- B- F D B- D+
1.01 78% 30% 18% +3 +1 1.09 28% 0.8 .21 23% .47 80% .38 1.00 33% 38% 35% -8 -2 0.83 21% 1.1 .23 10% .32 70% .23
Jan
15		 Appalachian St. B F F A F+ 35% 13% 52% B- D- B C B- A B- C- B- F C F F F 38% 4% 58% F F F F F F A+ C A+
1.11 24% 17% 40% -10 +1 0.83 35% 0.9 .33 10% .30 69% .21 1.36 58% 50% 45% +10 +2 1.26 38% 1.3 .50 10% .15 63% .09
Jan
17		 Marshall C- F C B C- 26% 23% 51% D+ C- B- A B+ F+ C+ D- C- C B A+ C- A 35% 28% 37% C A- F A D C+ F F F
1.05 42% 36% 38% -2 -1 0.96 36% 1.1 .40 20% .37 65% .24 1.13 56% 23% 35% -4 -1 0.91 46% 0.9 .41 19% .51 82% .42
Jan
22		 South Alabama C D+ F A A- 14% 2% 84% C+ A- F A+ C- F A+ C+ A+ F B+ B B+ B+ 49% 11% 40% D- B C- F F F F B F
1.10 57% 0% 39% +6 +1 1.14 20% 1.7 .34 22% .43 76% .32 1.19 48% 33% 27% -9 +2 0.87 24% 2.1 .51 4% .54 62% .33
Jan
24		 Texas St. A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 12% 62% D+ A A- C+ B+ C+ F C F B+ C A+ A+ A 45% 28% 28% C- A B A+ A F F B+ F+
1.30 62% 50% 45% +13 0 1.28 37% 1.0 .37 17% .21 73% .15 0.90 57% 15% 23% -11 0 0.79 28% 0.6 .18 11% .37 71% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Troy B- B F A+ B 46% 15% 40% B+ B+ C C+ C D A D- B+ A A- A A+ A+ 44% 13% 43% C A+ A+ B A F C A- B-
1.11 64% 29% 42% +6 +1 1.17 30% 1.1 .33 20% .38 65% .25 0.97 46% 29% 26% -12 +1 0.81 22% 0.9 .20 9% .30 67% .20
Jan
31		 Southern Miss D- C- B- F F 49% 16% 36% B F D+ A+ B- C+ A+ F B D+ C- B+ C+ C 37% 39% 24% B C+ B+ D- C+ D+ F F F
0.97 55% 43% 19% -9 +1 0.87 25% 1.3 .33 16% .47 58% .27 1.09 60% 31% 30% -3 -2 0.90 25% 1.1 .29 16% .61 82% .50
Feb
4		 Louisiana D+ B F C C- 50% 8% 43% B+ C B- C- C+ C B- F F F+ C A+ F C 23% 31% 46% C+ C F C+ F+ D- B F C-
1.08 65% 0% 35% +2 +3 1.10 35% 1.0 .35 18% .41 42% .17 1.13 55% 20% 41% -2 -2 0.94 38% 0.9 .32 14% .18 89% .16
Feb
7		 Toledo D+ A D- D C- 38% 13% 49% C C- C+ D C- D+ A- A+ A+ C+ C- F+ B C 38% 31% 31% B C+ A+ F B- F B- A+ B+
1.10 71% 33% 32% +3 +1 1.09 36% 0.8 .30 20% .32 88% .28 1.07 60% 50% 31% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.3 .24 11% .25 67% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.5 0.5 4th
5th 0.3 1.9 2.2 5th
6th 3.2 2.5 5.7 6th
7th 1.0 9.0 0.6 10.6 7th
8th 0.1 7.9 5.6 13.5 8th
9th 0.0 2.0 12.5 0.4 15.0 9th
10th 0.2 7.9 6.2 0.0 14.4 10th
11th 2.2 12.0 1.1 15.3 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 7.7 5.3 0.0 14.1 12th
13th 0.6 3.5 4.5 0.2 8.8 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.6 4.5 14.6 27.5 28.8 18.5 5.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 5.4% 4.4% 4.4% 13.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.2
9-9 18.5% 2.5% 2.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 18.0
8-10 28.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 28.5
7-11 27.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 27.5
6-12 14.6% 14.6
5-13 4.5% 4.5
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 14.7 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.8 29.2 62.5 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 0.6%