James Madison
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#115
Expected Predictive Rating+1.1#154
Pace67.0#229
Improvement+1.1#111

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#99
First Shot+1.2#142
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#88
Layup/Dunks+0.6#155
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#258
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#36
Freethrows-3.1#339
Improvement+0.3#153

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#157
First Shot-0.4#183
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#122
Layups/Dunks-2.3#264
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#70
Freethrows+0.5#154
Improvement+0.9#121
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.9% 24.9% 17.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.8 13.3
.500 or above 94.3% 97.3% 90.4%
.500 or above in Conference 95.6% 98.1% 92.2%
Conference Champion 33.1% 42.1% 20.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round21.9% 24.9% 17.9%
Second Round3.0% 3.7% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Away) - 57.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 37 - 68 - 9
Quad 412 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 149   Ohio W 88-78 71%     1 - 0 +7.4 +10.3 -3.1
  Nov 09, 2024 181   @ Norfolk St. L 69-83 55%     1 - 1 -12.0 -2.8 -9.4
  Nov 16, 2024 213   @ Towson L 63-67 61%     1 - 2 -3.5 -2.6 -1.3
  Nov 21, 2024 199   Illinois-Chicago W 99-81 68%     2 - 2 +16.4 +17.7 -2.7
  Nov 22, 2024 91   UC San Diego L 67-73 39%     2 - 3 +0.1 +6.6 -7.3
  Nov 23, 2024 167   Jacksonville St. W 71-65 65%     3 - 3 +5.4 +4.0 +2.1
  Nov 29, 2024 87   George Mason L 61-66 49%     3 - 4 -1.6 -2.4 +0.4
  Dec 03, 2024 132   East Tennessee St. W 71-61 67%     4 - 4 +8.7 +2.2 +7.1
  Dec 07, 2024 148   Utah Valley W 78-61 71%     5 - 4 +14.4 +12.7 +3.0
  Dec 17, 2024 86   @ Wake Forest L 58-75 27%     5 - 5 -7.5 +2.0 -12.4
  Dec 21, 2024 202   @ South Alabama W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 02, 2025 283   Southern Miss W 79-66 89%    
  Jan 04, 2025 109   Arkansas St. W 75-73 59%    
  Jan 09, 2025 190   @ Marshall W 76-74 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 173   @ Appalachian St. W 68-67 54%    
  Jan 16, 2025 190   Marshall W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 18, 2025 173   Appalachian St. W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 22, 2025 315   @ Old Dominion W 79-70 79%    
  Jan 25, 2025 263   @ Georgia St. W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 30, 2025 268   Coastal Carolina W 74-62 86%    
  Feb 01, 2025 315   Old Dominion W 82-67 91%    
  Feb 05, 2025 125   Troy W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 13, 2025 234   @ Georgia Southern W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 15, 2025 268   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 20, 2025 263   Georgia St. W 80-68 86%    
  Feb 22, 2025 234   Georgia Southern W 81-71 82%    
  Feb 25, 2025 329   @ Louisiana Monroe W 76-66 82%    
  Feb 28, 2025 139   @ Texas St. L 71-72 47%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.6 7.2 10.1 7.9 4.0 1.0 33.1 1st
2nd 0.3 3.1 7.9 7.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 6.3 5.0 1.2 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.4 3.6 0.8 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.3 0.8 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 2.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.9 0.1 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.5 4.6 7.3 10.8 14.1 16.4 16.0 13.1 8.3 4.0 1.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 99.7% 4.0    3.9 0.1
16-2 94.6% 7.9    6.6 1.2 0.0
15-3 76.9% 10.1    6.6 3.1 0.3 0.0
14-4 45.1% 7.2    2.8 3.2 1.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.0% 2.6    0.4 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.1% 33.1 21.3 8.8 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 44.2% 44.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5
17-1 4.0% 43.5% 43.5% 11.9 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.3
16-2 8.3% 37.6% 37.6% 12.4 0.1 1.8 1.2 0.1 5.2
15-3 13.1% 31.3% 31.3% 12.7 0.0 1.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.0
14-4 16.0% 26.8% 26.8% 13.1 0.0 0.8 2.5 0.9 0.1 11.7
13-5 16.4% 21.2% 21.2% 13.4 0.3 1.7 1.3 0.1 13.0
12-6 14.1% 17.1% 17.1% 13.7 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.2 11.7
11-7 10.8% 12.3% 12.3% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.5
10-8 7.3% 8.9% 8.9% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 6.6
9-9 4.6% 5.0% 5.0% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.4
8-10 2.5% 4.6% 4.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.3
7-11 1.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.9% 21.9% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 5.7 9.2 5.1 1.1 0.1 78.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 10.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 5.2 10.4 15.2 46.0 19.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%