West Georgia
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.6 317
Expected Predictive Rating -7.4 288
Pace 70.5 130
Improvement -0.1 185

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #285 D- C C D+ F
Defense D #326 D C D+ C- F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 317 50% 346 -5.8 347
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 10 37% 200 +4.8 13
Three Pointers 33% 333 31% 299 -5.6 337
1st FG Attempt 0.89 348 -6.6 349
Second Chance 30.2% 191 1.05 140 0.32 158
Turnovers 16.6% 160
Freethrows 0.27 297 72% 180 0.19 278
Total Offense -4.2 285

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% 2 62% 291 -7.9 361
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 313 41% 282 +1.2 97
Three Pointers 35% 330 35% 245 +2.2 93
1st FG Attempt 1.11 315 -4.5 315
Second Chance 31.1% 209 0.99 127 0.31 175
Turnovers 15.0% 297
Freethrows 0.33 272 72% 152 0.24 260
Total Defense -5.4 326

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -2.1 356 +1.3 357
Shot Type Accuracy -4.6 325 +3.0 294
Possession Length 17.9 249 16.2 27
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 233 0.25 359
Improvement +0.9 #129 -0.9 #247

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 3% 15% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 18% 49% 13%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Away) - 15.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 01 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 410 - 912 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 15 @Nebraska L 53 - 86 1% -11  34% 0 - 1 D- -12 F -11 F B B+ C -0 A F C-
 Mon, Nov 10 34 @UCLA L 62 - 83 1% -11  0% 0 - 2 C- -4 C- -1 A C- F D+ -4 D B B+
 Fri, Nov 14 347 The Citadel W 100 - 92 71% +8  91% 1 - 2 D+ -7 B+ +9 C+ A B F -17 F B- F
 Mon, Nov 17 320 @Tennessee Tech W 61 - 59 40% +6  79% 2 - 2 D+ -5 F -16 F F F A +11 A C B
 Fri, Nov 21 297 South Carolina Upstate W 72 - 64 55% +4  79% 3 - 2 C- -3 F+ -8 D- A- F B +5 A B D-
 Sun, Nov 23 131 @Georgia Tech L 66 - 82 9% -3  31% 3 - 3 D -11 D- -8 D D+ B+ C- -3 D D- C+
 Mon, Dec 1 135 @Troy W 93 - 89 2OT 10% -0  42% 4 - 3 B +9 C+ +2 D- D+ A+ B+ +6 D A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 320 Tennessee Tech L 59 - 87 63% -10  10% 4 - 4 F -41 F -23 F C+ F F -18 F A+ F+
 Sat, Dec 13 274 Georgia Southern L 85 - 91 49% -9  0% 4 - 5 F+ -15 C +0 D- A+ F F -15 F+ F D+
 Mon, Dec 22 36 @Georgia L 74 - 103 1% -16  0% 4 - 6 D- -12 D- -6 D- C C- C -1 A- F+ D
 Thu, Jan 1 283 Bellarmine W 87 - 85 51% +10  97% 5 - 6 1 - 0 D -8 C+ +2 D- F+ A+ F+ -10 D- B- F
 Sat, Jan 3 267 Eastern Kentucky W 88 - 76 48% -1  33% 6 - 6 2 - 0 C+ +3 B +5 D+ B+ B C- -2 C- C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 345 @North Florida W 85 - 73 48% +6  98% 7 - 6 3 - 0 C+ +3 D+ -2 D+ C- C- B +5 B+ F C
 Sat, Jan 10 308 @Jacksonville L 43 - 75 36% -17  1% 7 - 7 3 - 1 F -38 F -27 F F F F -17 F A F
 Thu, Jan 15 333 @Stetson L 86 - 95 43% -4  6% 7 - 8 3 - 2 F+ -17 C+ +2 F+ B- B F -19 F C B-
 Sat, Jan 17 243 @Florida Gulf Coast L 72 - 90 22% -3  25% 7 - 9 3 - 3 F -20 D -5 D F A- F -14 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 22 190 Central Arkansas L 65 - 86 33% -9  24% 7 - 10 3 - 4 F -26 F -10 D+ A+ F F -16 F A F+
 Sat, Jan 24 218 Queens W 74 - 66 36% +4  84% 8 - 10 4 - 4 C+ +2 D- -6 B- F+ D- A- +8 A D B
 Wed, Jan 28 283 @Bellarmine L 74 - 77 29% -5  0% 8 - 11 4 - 5 D+ -7 C +0 C C- C- D- -8 D- D F
 Sat, Jan 31 152 Austin Peay L 78 - 81 26% -6  1% 8 - 12 4 - 6 D+ -6 D+ -3 D- D+ A+ C- -3 B A D-
 Thu, Feb 5 345 North Florida L 73 - 81 70% +1  56% 8 - 13 4 - 7 F -23 F -20 F F+ A+ C- -3 F+ A B+
 Sat, Feb 7 308 Jacksonville W 87 - 73 59% +6  94% 9 - 13 5 - 7 C+ +2 A- +10 F A+ B+ D -7 C- D- D+
 Wed, Feb 11 344 @North Alabama W 82 - 73 48% +6  94% 10 - 13 6 - 7 C -0 B+ +8 C+ C- A- D- -7 F A F
 Sat, Feb 14 190 @Central Arkansas L 71 - 82 16%
 Wed, Feb 18 267 @Eastern Kentucky L 75 - 82 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 218 @Queens L 77 - 87 18%
 Wed, Feb 25 187 Lipscomb L 75 - 80 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 344 North Alabama W 77 - 71 70%
Totals 12 - 16 8 - 10 -10 D+ -4 D- C C D -5 D C D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D- C- D D 33% 34% 33% F D- C C+ C C D C D+ D D+ D+ C- D 49% 16% 35% F+ D C- C+ C D+ D+ C C-
1.03 50% 37% 31% -5 -2 0.89 30% 1.0 .32 17% .27 72% .19 1.16 62% 41% 35% +3 +1 1.11 31% 1.0 .31 15% .33 72% .19
Nov
3		 Nebraska F F+ F F F 14% 46% 40% F F C+ A+ B B+ C A+ B C D B- A+ A+ 40% 6% 54% D A F F+ F C- F A+ F+
0.75 50% 23% 17% -18 -5 0.56 26% 1.1 .28 17% .22 85% .19 1.22 70% 33% 26% -2 +2 1.02 38% 1.3 .48 13% .41 64% .26
Nov
10		 UCLA C- F B A+ A+ 18% 32% 50% F A D+ B- C- F D- F F D+ C- F D+ D+ 44% 26% 30% D- D F A+ B B+ F F F
0.95 25% 43% 50% +8 -3 1.11 26% 1.0 .26 26% .23 45% .10 1.27 63% 55% 38% +9 0 1.19 48% 0.7 .33 17% .48 88% .42
Nov
14		 The Citadel B+ B+ C A+ B 48% 32% 20% F+ C+ B+ A- A B A+ D A F C- F F+ F 52% 14% 33% F F C- A- B- F D D+ D
1.32 70% 39% 45% +10 -1 1.20 39% 1.3 .48 12% .40 67% .27 1.21 58% 56% 38% +4 +2 1.14 29% 0.7 .21 11% .31 71% .22
Nov
17		 Tennessee Tech F F F A+ F 16% 55% 29% F F C F F F C A+ B A F D+ A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% C A A F C B F F F
0.91 25% 30% 43% -6 -6 0.78 33% 0.6 .21 19% .30 88% .26 0.88 75% 40% 5% -12 0 0.78 23% 1.3 .29 22% .37 89% .33
Nov
21		 South Carolina Upstate F+ D- A- F D 50% 35% 15% D- D- A- B- A- F F A+ D B A A+ A- A+ 48% 14% 38% F A D+ A+ B D- B- A- B
1.01 50% 44% 25% -4 -1 0.92 40% 1.1 .46 22% .22 83% .18 0.90 44% 13% 29% -13 +2 0.79 31% 0.7 .20 14% .26 63% .16
Nov
23		 Georgia Tech D- C+ C F D+ 25% 33% 42% F D F A+ D+ B+ C- F F+ C- F+ F+ B+ D+ 50% 18% 32% F+ D D- D+ D- C+ C- A+ B-
0.92 57% 37% 25% -6 -3 0.84 18% 1.4 .25 12% .27 53% .14 1.14 68% 44% 31% +5 +1 1.14 38% 1.2 .44 18% .32 58% .19
Dec
1		 Troy C+ F+ C- C+ D- 42% 31% 28% D+ D- C D D+ A+ C- F F B+ B- F D D+ 51% 7% 42% F+ D B- A+ A+ B+ F A+ D-
1.08 47% 41% 35% -3 -1 0.93 31% 0.9 .29 6% .27 50% .14 1.03 52% 75% 38% +2 +3 1.11 31% 0.6 .18 20% .42 62% .26
Dec
6		 Tennessee Tech F F D+ F F 25% 35% 40% F F F+ A+ C+ F B F+ C+ F F A- F F 50% 26% 24% D+ F A- A+ A+ F+ C+ F C-
0.85 33% 35% 21% -15 -3 0.67 24% 1.8 .42 20% .34 68% .23 1.25 78% 29% 62% +17 0 1.37 24% 0.3 .08 16% .27 81% .22
Dec
13		 Georgia Southern C D+ F C+ D 38% 27% 35% F D- A+ B A+ F C A+ A F C- F C- D- 45% 5% 49% F+ F+ F F F D+ D+ F+ D-
1.17 56% 31% 35% -2 -1 0.96 49% 1.2 .57 23% .36 95% .34 1.25 56% 67% 33% 0 +2 1.07 35% 1.3 .46 14% .37 78% .29
Dec
22		 Georgia D- F F A D- 34% 33% 33% F+ D- F A+ C C- C A+ A- C B+ C+ B A 55% 8% 37% F A- F C- F+ D F A D-
0.88 33% 25% 40% -10 -2 0.79 23% 1.3 .30 20% .24 94% .23 1.23 53% 40% 30% -5 +3 0.98 46% 1.1 .50 12% .45 67% .30
Jan
1		 Bellarmine C+ D A+ D+ D 13% 29% 59% F D- B- F F+ A+ B- A+ B+ F+ F+ F B+ D- 61% 11% 28% F D- C- A+ B- F F A+ F
1.27 57% 56% 33% +5 -3 1.05 39% 0.8 .30 7% .33 81% .27 1.24 71% 60% 31% +9 +3 1.26 20% 0.8 .16 10% .55 68% .37
Jan
3		 Eastern Kentucky B C- A+ F D+ 50% 30% 20% C- D+ A- B- B+ B B B- B C- C- F B C 33% 9% 58% F C- B F C- F A A+ A+
1.26 59% 63% 18% +3 0 1.07 41% 1.1 .44 13% .36 77% .28 1.09 58% 60% 30% -1 +1 1.02 29% 1.3 .39 13% .17 50% .08
Jan
8		 North Florida D+ C+ B C- C 30% 36% 34% F D+ F+ A C- C- B A+ A B F A+ A+ A 41% 7% 52% F+ B+ D- F F C B A- B+
1.19 63% 47% 33% +4 -3 1.06 29% 1.4 .42 13% .32 85% .27 1.02 70% 25% 21% -6 +2 0.93 29% 1.6 .47 18% .19 73% .14
Jan
10		 Jacksonville F A- F F F 40% 31% 29% F+ F F F+ F F A+ F+ A- F A F F F 43% 26% 32% C+ F A+ F A F C F D+
0.73 71% 18% 10% -11 -1 0.77 19% 0.8 .15 25% .50 64% .32 1.27 45% 58% 60% +12 0 1.26 13% 1.3 .17 8% .28 80% .22
Jan
15		 Stetson C+ D- A+ F F+ 41% 22% 37% C- F+ B+ C- B- B C- A+ B F F+ A+ F F 51% 11% 38% F F C- C C B- F F+ F
1.18 54% 54% 27% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.1 .44 12% .26 88% .23 1.30 67% 20% 67% +21 +2 1.49 26% 1.0 .26 20% .48 75% .36
Jan
17		 Florida Gulf Coast D C+ C- D+ D+ 26% 25% 49% F+ D D F F A- D- F F F F A+ F F 43% 30% 26% C- F D+ F F C- F D+ F
1.02 60% 36% 32% -1 -1 0.96 26% 0.7 .19 13% .31 58% .18 1.28 80% 21% 50% +11 -1 1.22 32% 1.5 .48 17% .61 75% .46
Jan
22		 Central Arkansas F D- A+ F D+ 40% 19% 42% C- D+ A A+ A+ F A+ D- A- F D- F+ F F 44% 13% 43% D- F A+ F A F+ A D- B+
0.96 53% 63% 28% -1 0 1.00 38% 1.5 .58 33% .40 67% .26 1.28 67% 43% 52% +16 +1 1.37 11% 1.3 .15 12% .19 73% .13
Jan
24		 Queens D- C+ B- A+ B+ 30% 38% 32% F B- B- F F+ D- B F C A- A+ A+ C- A+ 56% 8% 35% F A D- C D B C- A+ B
1.11 60% 42% 50% +10 -3 1.16 37% 0.6 .23 18% .40 64% .26 0.99 44% 25% 35% -8 +3 0.92 35% 1.1 .38 18% .31 59% .18
Jan
28		 Bellarmine C F B- A+ B- 20% 38% 42% F C D+ C+ C- C- F F F D- F C- C D- 54% 10% 35% F+ D- F+ B- D F A D- B+
1.20 50% 42% 52% +12 -4 1.18 32% 1.2 .39 16% .15 38% .06 1.25 73% 40% 35% +9 +2 1.25 26% 1.0 .26 11% .22 83% .18
Jan
31		 Austin Peay D+ D+ D C- D- 43% 31% 26% D D- F B+ D+ A+ A C A- C- C+ F A+ A- 44% 11% 44% F B B+ A+ A D- F F F
1.04 56% 33% 33% -3 -1 0.95 21% 0.9 .18 11% .37 68% .25 1.08 55% 60% 20% -8 +2 0.89 22% 0.9 .19 13% .63 83% .53
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 North Florida F F F F F 27% 30% 42% F F D- D+ F+ A+ D C D C- D F F+ F+ 45% 11% 43% D- F+ C- A+ A B+ F+ A- D
0.98 50% 20% 21% -16 -2 0.67 30% 1.1 .34 3% .24 71% .17 1.09 63% 50% 39% +7 +2 1.19 26% 0.6 .15 22% .31 72% .22
Feb
7		 Jacksonville A- D+ D- D+ F 46% 28% 26% D+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C+ A+ D C- A A- C+ 56% 14% 30% F C- F+ D+ D- D+ F B- F
1.29 57% 31% 33% -3 0 0.96 47% 1.2 .58 12% .54 72% .39 1.08 57% 29% 27% -5 +2 0.96 34% 1.1 .37 16% .44 68% .30
Feb
11		 North Alabama B+ D B- A+ B+ 33% 31% 37% F C+ D B C- A- D+ A+ C D- D C+ F F 53% 23% 25% C- F A A A F B- C- C+
1.27 53% 44% 47% +8 -2 1.13 31% 1.3 .41 11% .24 86% .21 1.13 61% 33% 46% +5 +1 1.13 22% 0.9 .19 12% .28 69% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.4 1.0 0.1 1.5 4th
5th 0.1 6.4 10.9 2.1 0.0 19.6 5th
6th 2.7 16.0 3.4 0.1 22.1 6th
7th 0.2 13.9 10.3 0.3 24.7 7th
8th 1.8 14.8 1.1 17.8 8th
9th 6.1 4.9 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 3.0 0.1 3.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 11.2 36.6 33.9 14.9 3.2 0.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.3% 0.3
10-8 3.2% 3.2
9-9 14.9% 14.9
8-10 33.9% 33.9
7-11 36.6% 36.6
6-12 11.2% 11.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3%
Lose Out 11.2%