Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
148 Austin Peay 34.1%   15   17 - 6 13 - 1 +0.4      -0.3 171 +0.7 144 71.0 114 +3.1 112 +7.7 1
185 Central Arkansas 21.3%   15 - 10 12 - 2 -1.6      -0.9 188 -0.7 196 69.8 144 -1.4 182 +2.5 2
194 Lipscomb 16.8%   14 - 11 9 - 5 -2.0      -1.4 205 -0.6 193 73.8 51 -1.7 188 -3.3 4
208 Queens 14.7%   14 - 12 10 - 4 -2.7      +3.5 91 -6.3 337 72.1 83 -3.0 217 -2.4 3
251 Florida Gulf Coast 5.6%   10 - 15 6 - 8 -5.0      -1.9 221 -3.1 269 69.5 150 -7.0 279 -8.1 6
272 Eastern Kentucky 3.0%   7 - 18 5 - 9 -6.5      -0.2 169 -6.3 339 68.5 184 -9.0 310 -9.5 9
289 Bellarmine 2.6%   9 - 15 6 - 8 -7.3      +3.1 98 -10.4 364 63.4 321 -7.2 283 -7.5 5
312 Jacksonville 1.1%   8 - 17 5 - 9 -8.9      -6.0 320 -3.0 266 60.9 350 -8.9 308 -9.9 10
317 West Georgia 0.0%   10 - 14 6 - 8 -9.9      -4.5 290 -5.4 320 70.6 121 -7.7 291 -8.6 7
327 Stetson 0.6%   7 - 18 5 - 9 -10.5      -4.5 289 -6.0 330 68.3 190 -9.5 315 -9.1 8
339 North Alabama 0.0%   6 - 17 3 - 11 -12.0      -5.3 309 -6.6 343 64.8 279 -10.8 329 -14.6 12
343 North Florida 0.2%   4 - 21 4 - 10 -12.3      -0.9 189 -11.4 365 75.1 32 -13.7 350 -11.2 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 14 251 Florida Gulf Coast 78 327 Stetson 76   
Sat, Feb 14 312 Jacksonville 63 343 North Florida 56   
Sat, Feb 14 185 Central Arkansas 79 317 West Georgia 62   
Sat, Feb 14 194 Lipscomb 81 208 Queens 87   
Sat, Feb 14 148 Austin Peay 90 289 Bellarmine 70   
Sun, Feb 15 272 Eastern Kentucky 78 339 North Alabama 84   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Feb 18 289 Bellarmine 79 194 Lipscomb 81 59%   
Wed, Feb 18 251 Florida Gulf Coast 73 312 Jacksonville 66 75%   
Wed, Feb 18 272 Eastern Kentucky 82 317 West Georgia 75 73%   
Wed, Feb 18 339 North Alabama 76 208 Queens 82 73%   
Thu, Feb 19 185 Central Arkansas 78 327 Stetson 72 72%   
Thu, Feb 19 148 Austin Peay 89 343 North Florida 79 82%   
Sat, Feb 21 185 Central Arkansas 77 251 Florida Gulf Coast 76 51%   
Sat, Feb 21 289 Bellarmine 81 272 Eastern Kentucky 79 59%   
Sat, Feb 21 343 North Florida 81 327 Stetson 86 68%   
Sat, Feb 21 208 Queens 88 317 West Georgia 77 83%   
Sat, Feb 21 148 Austin Peay 72 312 Jacksonville 66 73%   
Sat, Feb 21 194 Lipscomb 81 339 North Alabama 68 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Austin Peay 1.1 91.6 8.4 0.1
Central Arkansas 1.9 21.8 70.4 7.1 0.7
Lipscomb 3.5 0.0 4.3 42.1 53.4 0.2 0.0
Queens 2.9 0.5 21.3 60.8 17.4
Florida Gulf Coast 5.6 0.0 2.0 65.1 17.9 7.9 4.1 1.7 1.1 0.1
Eastern Kentucky 7.4 0.1 15.0 20.3 20.0 16.5 16.1 10.1 1.7 0.1
Bellarmine 6.2 0.0 1.4 35.7 28.9 16.8 9.3 5.8 2.1 0.1
Jacksonville 8.0 0.0 9.0 12.4 18.6 19.1 17.5 16.3 6.6 0.4
West Georgia 6.8 0.0 0.5 19.3 24.9 25.8 16.3 9.6 3.5 0.1
Stetson 8.0 0.0 10.0 12.1 17.7 18.3 17.8 15.8 7.8 0.5
North Alabama 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.8 25.8 65.2
North Florida 10.1 0.8 2.0 4.5 7.0 12.7 19.3 45.0 8.7

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Austin Peay 16 - 2 20 - 7 0.8 6.3 23.4 40.5 29.0
Central Arkansas 14 - 4 17 - 12 4.0 19.6 37.6 30.2 8.6
Lipscomb 12 - 6 17 - 12 0.9 9.0 29.2 39.8 21.2
Queens 12 - 6 16 - 14 1.9 13.5 36.1 36.6 11.9
Florida Gulf Coast 8 - 10 12 - 17 2.3 13.7 32.5 35.8 15.8
Eastern Kentucky 7 - 11 9 - 20 5.4 23.6 37.5 26.4 7.0
Bellarmine 8 - 10 11 - 17 8.5 27.8 36.5 21.9 5.2
Jacksonville 7 - 11 10 - 19 9.9 32.8 37.2 17.3 2.8
West Georgia 7 - 11 11 - 17 14.1 41.0 32.8 10.7 1.3
Stetson 7 - 11 9 - 20 10.2 32.9 36.1 17.5 3.2
North Alabama 4 - 14 7 - 20 25.8 41.9 25.0 6.7 0.6
North Florida 5 - 13 5 - 24 20.4 38.9 29.6 9.8 1.2

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Austin Peay 91.6% 78.0 13.2 0.3 0.0
Central Arkansas 21.8% 8.4 13.1 0.3 0.0
Lipscomb 0.0% 0.0
Queens 0.5% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast
Eastern Kentucky
Bellarmine
Jacksonville
West Georgia
Stetson
North Alabama
North Florida


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Austin Peay 34.1% 34.1% 0.0% 15   0.8 9.8 17.1 6.1 0.2 65.9 0.0%
Central Arkansas 21.3% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 6.0 11.2 3.2 78.7 0.0%
Lipscomb 16.8% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 4.9 8.1 2.8 83.2 0.0%
Queens 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.2 2.1 7.4 5.1 85.3 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 4.8 94.4 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 3.0 97.0 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.1 2.5 97.4 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 1.1 98.9 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stetson 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
North Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
North Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 94.1% 0.9 5.9 94.1
2nd Round 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Austin Peay 34.1% 0.0% 34.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 21.3% 0.4% 21.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 16.8% 0.4% 16.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 14.7% 1.2% 14.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 5.6% 3.9% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 3.0% 3.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.6% 2.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%