Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
155 Austin Peay 31.3%   15   19 - 6 15 - 1 0.0      -1.3 201 +1.3 134 71.3 107 +3.6 110 +8.4 1
182 Central Arkansas 22.5%   16 - 11 13 - 3 -1.4      -1.0 192 -0.5 188 69.4 155 -1.7 189 +1.0 2
188 Lipscomb 18.0%   16 - 11 11 - 5 -1.7      -1.6 219 -0.1 169 73.3 60 -1.1 178 -2.4 4
212 Queens 15.0%   16 - 12 12 - 4 -2.9      +3.8 87 -6.7 342 72.3 81 -2.6 209 -1.8 3
252 Florida Gulf Coast 6.1%   12 - 15 8 - 8 -4.9      -1.4 210 -3.5 281 69.4 150 -6.0 260 -6.4 5
279 Eastern Kentucky 3.3%   9 - 18 7 - 9 -6.6      0.0 162 -6.7 341 68.5 181 -7.9 288 -7.7 6
286 Bellarmine 2.0%   9 - 17 6 - 10 -7.4      +3.8 88 -11.2 365 62.9 327 -8.3 302 -9.0 7
307 Jacksonville 1.2%   8 - 19 5 - 11 -8.6      -5.2 307 -3.5 280 60.7 352 -9.4 316 -10.5 10
317 West Georgia 0.0%   10 - 16 6 - 10 -9.5      -4.7 292 -4.9 311 71.0 115 -8.1 294 -9.3 9
326 Stetson 0.4%   8 - 19 6 - 10 -10.7      -4.2 282 -6.4 337 67.5 207 -9.5 317 -9.2 8
340 North Florida 0.1%   4 - 23 4 - 12 -12.0      -1.4 211 -10.6 364 75.1 31 -14.4 352 -12.1 11
342 North Alabama 0.0%   6 - 19 3 - 13 -12.3      -5.8 317 -6.6 340 64.2 297 -11.2 330 -15.1 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Feb 19 155 Austin Peay 77 340 North Florida 76   
Thu, Feb 19 182 Central Arkansas 88 326 Stetson 76   
Sat, Feb 21 182 Central Arkansas 71 252 Florida Gulf Coast 75   
Sat, Feb 21 155 Austin Peay 65 307 Jacksonville 61   
Sat, Feb 21 212 Queens 91 317 West Georgia 84   
Sat, Feb 21 188 Lipscomb 73 342 North Alabama 51   
Sat, Feb 21 286 Bellarmine 92 279 Eastern Kentucky 95   
Sat, Feb 21 340 North Florida 71 326 Stetson 76   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Feb 25 155 Austin Peay 77 182 Central Arkansas 72 67%   
Wed, Feb 25 279 Eastern Kentucky 84 212 Queens 85 53%   
Wed, Feb 25 188 Lipscomb 80 317 West Georgia 75 68%   
Wed, Feb 25 286 Bellarmine 77 342 North Alabama 75 57%   
Thu, Feb 26 307 Jacksonville 72 326 Stetson 67 69%   
Thu, Feb 26 252 Florida Gulf Coast 86 340 North Florida 82 66%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Austin Peay 1.0 100.0
Central Arkansas 2.0 8.5 79.5 12.1
Lipscomb 3.4 4.0 47.7 48.3
Queens 2.8 28.9 58.7 12.4
Florida Gulf Coast 5.0 97.0 3.0
Eastern Kentucky 6.0 19.3 66.8 11.1 2.7 0.2
Bellarmine 7.3 2.1 25.5 32.7 19.5 17.1 3.1
Jacksonville 8.6 6.8 19.9 18.0 22.9 26.5 5.9
West Georgia 7.1 2.5 28.6 37.4 18.1 11.5 1.9
Stetson 7.8 3.7 16.6 26.4 19.4 21.2 12.8
North Florida 10.6 0.3 3.1 7.8 16.3 67.9 4.5
North Alabama 11.7 1.3 26.3 72.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Austin Peay 16 - 2 20 - 7 12.4 44.0 43.6
Central Arkansas 14 - 4 17 - 12 22.7 54.2 23.1
Lipscomb 12 - 6 17 - 12 14.3 46.2 39.5
Queens 13 - 5 17 - 13 31.9 49.8 18.2
Florida Gulf Coast 9 - 9 13 - 16 14.3 45.5 40.2
Eastern Kentucky 8 - 10 10 - 19 30.6 48.9 20.6
Bellarmine 7 - 11 10 - 18 28.4 51.3 20.3
Jacksonville 6 - 12 9 - 20 16.2 47.8 36.0
West Georgia 7 - 11 11 - 17 20.1 56.9 23.0
Stetson 7 - 11 9 - 20 41.7 45.1 13.2
North Florida 5 - 13 5 - 24 34.4 48.3 17.2
North Alabama 4 - 14 7 - 20 41.0 46.1 12.9

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Austin Peay 100.0% 91.5 8.5
Central Arkansas 8.5% 8.5
Lipscomb
Queens
Florida Gulf Coast
Eastern Kentucky
Bellarmine
Jacksonville
West Georgia
Stetson
North Florida
North Alabama


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Austin Peay 31.3% 31.3% 0.0% 15   0.6 8.7 17.0 4.9 0.1 68.7 0.0%
Central Arkansas 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 6.8 12.3 2.7 77.5 0.0%
Lipscomb 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 1.1 6.9 8.5 1.4 82.0 0.0%
Queens 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.1 2.1 8.3 4.4 85.0 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 1.2 4.9 93.9 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 3.3 96.7 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0 98.0 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2 98.8 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stetson 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
North Florida 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
North Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 94.8% 0.9 5.3 94.8
2nd Round 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Austin Peay 31.3% 0.0% 31.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 22.5% 0.2% 22.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 18.0% 0.1% 17.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 15.0% 0.8% 14.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 6.1% 3.3% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 3.3% 3.3% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.0% 2.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%