Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
110 Lipscomb 36.0%   14   13 - 8 7 - 3 19 - 10 13 - 5 +3.5      +2.2 115 +1.3 138 67.1 215 +1.0 156 -1.4 5
155 North Alabama 18.2%   13 - 8 7 - 3 19 - 10 13 - 5 +0.6      +2.0 120 -1.4 215 68.0 191 0.0 168 +0.8 2
164 Florida Gulf Coast 18.6%   12 - 10 8 - 2 17 - 13 13 - 5 +0.2      +0.7 161 -0.5 188 62.8 323 -0.6 181 +2.2 1
179 Jacksonville 12.6%   11 - 9 7 - 3 16 - 12 12 - 6 -0.9      -2.9 246 +2.0 117 69.2 158 +0.2 166 -0.4 4
213 Queens 7.0%   12 - 9 7 - 3 17 - 12 12 - 6 -2.9      -0.6 189 -2.3 242 73.9 50 -0.4 174 +0.8 3
231 Eastern Kentucky 4.0%   10 - 11 6 - 4 14 - 15 10 - 8 -3.9      +0.8 159 -4.7 307 70.5 118 -2.8 213 -3.2 6
245 North Florida 2.5%   10 - 11 5 - 5 14 - 15 9 - 9 -5.1      +2.6 108 -7.7 354 77.3 13 -1.9 199 -5.9 8
296 Austin Peay 0.9%   7 - 14 4 - 6 11 - 18 8 - 10 -7.4      -5.1 311 -2.3 240 64.7 275 -5.6 256 -7.2 9
334 Stetson 0.2%   5 - 16 5 - 5 7 - 22 7 - 11 -11.2      -3.5 266 -7.7 355 68.9 162 -11.0 331 -5.5 7
341 Central Arkansas 0.1%   4 - 17 2 - 8 6 - 23 4 - 14 -11.8      -6.5 337 -5.3 325 67.3 210 -14.5 349 -14.8 11
345 West Georgia 0.0%   3 - 19 2 - 8 5 - 25 4 - 14 -11.9      -6.0 329 -5.8 335 68.8 166 -13.2 341 -13.0 10
356 Bellarmine 0.0%   1 - 20 0 - 10 3 - 26 2 - 16 -13.5      -3.2 259 -10.3 362 65.0 267 -22.1 361 -21.3 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Lipscomb 2.1 44.4 23.9 16.0 8.9 5.1 1.4 0.2 0.0
North Alabama 2.7 25.5 24.9 20.9 14.9 10.1 2.7 0.9 0.2
Florida Gulf Coast 2.0 49.0 22.7 14.1 8.4 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.0
Jacksonville 3.2 16.6 19.8 20.8 21.3 14.4 5.6 1.3 0.3 0.0
Queens 3.6 11.6 14.9 18.8 21.8 21.6 9.0 1.8 0.5 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 5.6 1.3 3.0 5.9 11.2 18.5 35.8 17.1 5.7 1.4 0.0
North Florida 6.6 0.1 0.6 1.5 4.2 9.4 25.3 35.3 17.3 6.0 0.3 0.0
Austin Peay 7.7 0.1 0.1 0.9 2.6 9.9 25.2 35.5 22.0 3.4 0.3
Stetson 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 7.0 17.5 29.9 40.6 3.0 0.1
Central Arkansas 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 6.3 40.2 45.0 6.4
West Georgia 10.2 0.1 0.6 2.7 10.7 54.1 26.3 5.5
Bellarmine 11.6 0.1 0.7 8.2 21.7 69.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Lipscomb 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 1.4 6.3 17.0 29.0 31.1 15.1
North Alabama 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 11.5 24.4 30.9 22.5 5.8
Florida Gulf Coast 13 - 5 0.2 1.4 6.2 15.5 26.3 28.5 17.9 4.0
Jacksonville 12 - 6 0.2 1.8 6.6 17.8 29.0 27.5 14.1 3.1
Queens 12 - 6 0.1 0.6 3.6 10.9 22.7 28.6 22.2 9.8 1.7
Eastern Kentucky 10 - 8 0.3 2.5 9.8 20.8 27.2 23.3 11.9 3.8 0.5
North Florida 9 - 9 0.4 3.0 11.3 21.9 28.3 21.3 10.9 2.6 0.4
Austin Peay 8 - 10 0.5 4.3 13.8 24.0 27.0 19.6 8.7 2.1 0.2
Stetson 7 - 11 6.3 22.0 30.2 24.5 12.0 3.8 1.0 0.1
Central Arkansas 4 - 14 13.0 28.7 28.9 19.1 7.9 2.2 0.3 0.0
West Georgia 4 - 14 6.1 20.6 29.9 25.0 13.1 4.4 0.8 0.2
Bellarmine 2 - 16 10.2 26.3 30.3 21.6 8.8 2.4 0.4 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 44.4% 21.3 15.2 6.1 1.4 0.4 0.0
North Alabama 25.5% 9.2 9.7 4.9 1.3 0.4 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 49.0% 25.4 15.6 6.3 1.4 0.4 0.0
Jacksonville 16.6% 5.0 6.5 3.7 1.1 0.3 0.0
Queens 11.6% 3.2 4.1 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 1.3% 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
North Florida 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay
Stetson
Central Arkansas
West Georgia
Bellarmine


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 36.0% 36.0% 0.0% 14   0.3 6.9 14.5 12.1 2.2 0.1 64.0 0.0%
North Alabama 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 0.8 3.9 8.6 4.7 0.3 81.8 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 0.4 3.0 7.4 6.9 0.8 81.5 0.0%
Jacksonville 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 4.2 6.1 1.2 87.4 0.0%
Queens 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.6 1.7 93.0 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 2.1 1.5 96.0 0.0%
North Florida 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.1 97.5 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 99.1 0.0%
Stetson 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.9 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lipscomb 36.0% 0.0% 36.0% 3.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 18.2% 0.1% 18.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 18.6% 0.1% 18.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 12.6% 0.1% 12.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 7.0% 0.3% 6.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 4.0% 0.5% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 2.5% 0.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.0% 1.0 1.0 99.0
2nd Round 5.8% 0.1 94.2 5.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0