Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
175 Austin Peay 27.5%   15   15 - 6 11 - 1 -0.9      -1.5 208 +0.6 149 71.2 113 +2.5 122 +6.4 1
185 Lipscomb 20.7%   13 - 10 8 - 4 -1.5      -0.2 166 -1.4 225 73.1 64 -1.5 187 -3.1 4
204 Queens 15.9%   13 - 11 9 - 3 -2.7      +3.0 95 -5.7 330 71.0 116 -2.9 213 -1.9 3
208 Central Arkansas 17.3%   12 - 10 9 - 2 -2.9      -1.0 191 -1.9 241 69.8 151 -2.1 205 +1.9 2
222 Florida Gulf Coast 9.4%   8 - 15 4 - 8 -3.5      -1.5 209 -2.0 244 69.4 161 -7.4 283 -9.0 7
274 Eastern Kentucky 3.9%   7 - 16 5 - 7 -6.2      -1.1 195 -5.0 317 68.5 187 -8.0 294 -8.2 6
294 Bellarmine 2.7%   9 - 13 6 - 6 -7.8      +1.9 114 -9.8 362 64.1 302 -6.6 270 -6.9 5
296 Jacksonville 1.7%   7 - 16 4 - 8 -8.1      -5.2 304 -2.9 261 62.0 341 -8.3 299 -9.4 9
333 West Georgia 0.0%   9 - 13 5 - 7 -10.6      -5.2 306 -5.4 326 70.6 125 -7.8 293 -9.2 8
339 Stetson 0.5%   6 - 17 4 - 8 -10.9      -6.4 335 -4.5 305 68.5 188 -10.0 320 -9.4 10
340 North Alabama 0.3%   5 - 15 2 - 9 -10.9      -4.4 283 -6.5 344 65.1 276 -10.2 323 -15.3 12
348 North Florida 0.2%   4 - 19 4 - 8 -12.2      -0.9 189 -11.3 365 76.0 28 -13.2 347 -10.1 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 4 175 Austin Peay 87 185 Lipscomb 76   
Wed, Feb 4 208 Central Arkansas 81 340 North Alabama 60   
Thu, Feb 5 348 North Florida 81 333 West Georgia 73   
Thu, Feb 5 274 Eastern Kentucky 76 222 Florida Gulf Coast 74   
Thu, Feb 5 296 Jacksonville 84 204 Queens 93   
Thu, Feb 5 294 Bellarmine 92 339 Stetson 71   
Sat, Feb 7 274 Eastern Kentucky 100 339 Stetson 88   
Sat, Feb 7 294 Bellarmine 81 222 Florida Gulf Coast 65   
Sat, Feb 7 208 Central Arkansas 86 185 Lipscomb 78   
Sat, Feb 7 348 North Florida 72 204 Queens 91   
Sat, Feb 7 296 Jacksonville 73 333 West Georgia 87   
Sat, Feb 7 175 Austin Peay 91 340 North Alabama 62   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Feb 9 208 Central Arkansas 77 340 North Alabama 72 69%   
Wed, Feb 11 175 Austin Peay 79 204 Queens 81 54%   
Wed, Feb 11 274 Eastern Kentucky 75 185 Lipscomb 83 77%   
Wed, Feb 11 340 North Alabama 76 333 West Georgia 73 60%   
Wed, Feb 11 222 Florida Gulf Coast 90 348 North Florida 78 86%   
Thu, Feb 12 294 Bellarmine 74 208 Central Arkansas 82 78%   
Thu, Feb 12 296 Jacksonville 67 339 Stetson 68 51%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Austin Peay 1.2 85.2 11.6 2.9 0.4
Lipscomb 3.2 2.8 21.5 35.7 37.6 1.9 0.4 0.1
Queens 2.7 10.5 32.2 32.7 24.2 0.4 0.1
Central Arkansas 2.2 23.0 46.3 21.9 8.6 0.2 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 6.0 0.1 3.1 47.8 24.1 11.3 7.2 3.4 2.1 0.8 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 6.5 0.0 0.5 4.4 27.9 23.2 18.6 13.0 7.6 3.7 1.1 0.2
Bellarmine 6.2 0.1 0.7 4.2 34.1 23.8 18.1 11.2 5.9 1.8 0.1
Jacksonville 7.7 0.4 12.5 16.0 19.9 18.6 12.8 10.7 7.1 2.0
West Georgia 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 8.0 12.4 17.7 19.3 21.2 13.1 6.0 1.7
Stetson 8.8 0.1 5.4 8.2 12.3 15.1 16.8 21.2 15.8 5.1
North Alabama 10.8 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.8 4.6 9.1 11.7 22.9 47.0
North Florida 9.7 0.0 2.5 4.6 7.4 10.1 14.0 20.8 28.0 12.7

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Austin Peay 15 - 3 19 - 8 0.1 1.8 7.8 20.3 32.3 27.4 10.3
Lipscomb 12 - 6 17 - 12 0.2 2.0 8.1 22.1 32.4 25.9 9.5
Queens 13 - 5 17 - 13 0.5 4.6 14.9 28.2 29.3 17.8 4.7
Central Arkansas 13 - 5 16 - 13 0.1 1.5 6.5 18.1 28.4 28.2 14.1 3.0
Florida Gulf Coast 8 - 10 12 - 17 0.1 0.8 4.6 14.6 28.2 34.5 17.3
Eastern Kentucky 8 - 10 10 - 19 2.0 10.2 24.9 30.3 22.3 8.9 1.5
Bellarmine 8 - 10 11 - 17 8.1 22.5 31.3 23.9 11.0 2.9 0.3
Jacksonville 7 - 11 10 - 19 1.3 8.8 22.0 30.9 25.3 10.3 1.6
West Georgia 7 - 11 11 - 17 11.1 29.2 32.0 19.9 6.4 1.3 0.1
Stetson 6 - 12 8 - 21 5.6 21.8 31.2 25.6 12.2 3.2 0.4
North Alabama 5 - 13 8 - 19 4.2 15.7 26.4 27.6 17.9 6.6 1.5 0.1
North Florida 6 - 12 6 - 23 15.1 31.7 29.6 16.5 5.9 1.0 0.2

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Austin Peay 85.2% 68.0 14.5 2.5 0.2
Lipscomb 2.8% 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.2
Queens 10.5% 3.1 5.5 1.8 0.2
Central Arkansas 23.0% 10.0 10.5 2.3 0.2
Florida Gulf Coast
Eastern Kentucky
Bellarmine
Jacksonville
West Georgia
Stetson
North Alabama
North Florida


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Austin Peay 27.5% 27.5% 0.0% 15   0.4 4.2 13.1 9.3 0.5 72.6 0.0%
Lipscomb 20.7% 20.7% 0.0% 0.1 1.4 6.0 10.3 3.0 79.3 0.0%
Queens 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 0.3 2.5 8.8 4.4 84.1 0.0%
Central Arkansas 17.3% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.7 9.9 3.1 82.8 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.2 2.6 6.6 90.6 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.1 3.8 96.1 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.1 2.6 97.3 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 1.7 98.3 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stetson 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
North Alabama 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
North Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 93.8% 0.9 6.2 93.8
2nd Round 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Austin Peay 27.5% 0.0% 27.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 20.7% 0.3% 20.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 15.9% 0.8% 15.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 17.3% 0.4% 17.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 9.4% 4.7% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 3.9% 3.6% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.7% 2.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.7% 1.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%