Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
171 Austin Peay 23.7%   10 - 6 6 - 1 -1.0      -2.6 242 +1.5 119 70.6 134 +1.0 148 +4.4 2
174 Lipscomb 22.4%   11 - 7 6 - 1 -1.2      -1.8 219 +0.7 142 74.0 58 +1.4 140 +1.8 3
177 Queens 23.8%   15   11 - 8 7 - 0 -1.2      +3.9 85 -5.1 321 70.9 124 +1.2 145 +8.7 1
225 Florida Gulf Coast 8.8%   6 - 12 2 - 5 -3.7      +0.2 158 -3.9 293 69.8 159 -7.1 278 -10.2 8
236 Central Arkansas 9.5%   8 - 10 5 - 2 -4.2      -2.4 235 -1.8 231 68.1 209 -5.3 242 -3.3 4
254 Eastern Kentucky 6.1%   5 - 13 3 - 4 -5.0      +0.2 157 -5.3 322 68.5 196 -8.2 300 -8.7 7
292 Jacksonville 2.3%   5 - 13 2 - 5 -7.6      -5.1 305 -2.5 254 62.2 345 -8.4 304 -10.9 11
300 Bellarmine 2.1%   5 - 12 2 - 5 -7.9      +0.9 136 -8.8 361 65.2 279 -7.9 297 -10.3 10
328 North Alabama 0.4%   4 - 12 1 - 6 -10.5      -4.0 282 -6.5 343 66.5 244 -10.4 329 -18.7 12
332 Stetson 0.8%   5 - 13 3 - 4 -10.8      -4.9 303 -5.9 337 69.0 176 -8.5 306 -6.3 5
338 West Georgia 0.0%   7 - 10 3 - 4 -11.3      -4.6 296 -6.7 348 70.4 142 -7.2 282 -8.6 6
350 North Florida 0.3%   2 - 16 2 - 5 -12.4      -1.5 209 -11.0 365 77.0 24 -14.8 348 -10.3 9


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Jan 21 328 North Alabama 62 177 Queens 87   
Thu, Jan 22 300 Bellarmine 77 292 Jacksonville 70   
Thu, Jan 22 254 Eastern Kentucky 85 350 North Florida 87   
Thu, Jan 22 174 Lipscomb 79 332 Stetson 74   
Thu, Jan 22 171 Austin Peay 83 225 Florida Gulf Coast 62   
Thu, Jan 22 236 Central Arkansas 86 338 West Georgia 65   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 23 225 Florida Gulf Coast 75 174 Lipscomb 81 70%   
Fri, Jan 23 171 Austin Peay 80 332 Stetson 67 88%   
Sat, Jan 24 254 Eastern Kentucky 71 292 Jacksonville 72 52%   
Sat, Jan 24 300 Bellarmine 86 350 North Florida 85 56%   
Sat, Jan 24 177 Queens 85 338 West Georgia 78 75%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Austin Peay 2.1 34.6 34.7 22.0 6.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lipscomb 2.4 23.5 31.9 29.8 10.4 3.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Queens 1.6 62.5 23.3 10.6 3.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 5.7 0.0 1.0 5.8 19.3 27.2 18.8 12.0 7.5 4.5 2.3 1.1 0.4
Central Arkansas 3.9 4.2 10.4 20.5 37.3 15.6 6.8 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 5.9 0.2 1.6 5.9 15.4 22.7 20.4 14.2 9.3 5.5 3.1 1.4 0.3
Jacksonville 7.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 5.0 11.8 15.9 16.9 15.0 13.7 10.6 6.9 3.0
Bellarmine 7.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 4.0 9.5 13.4 16.6 16.5 14.5 12.2 7.7 4.4
North Alabama 10.4 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.8 7.1 10.7 14.8 24.1 34.6
Stetson 7.9 0.1 0.6 4.4 9.1 13.8 15.9 16.0 15.4 12.3 8.2 4.1
West Georgia 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.2 5.7 10.1 14.8 17.1 17.2 15.5 10.9 6.1
North Florida 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 4.4 7.1 10.3 14.0 17.1 24.6 19.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Austin Peay 14 - 4 18 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.7 6.7 13.5 20.2 23.3 19.6 10.2 2.8
Lipscomb 13 - 5 18 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.6 10.7 16.7 22.6 21.5 14.3 6.2 1.3
Queens 15 - 3 19 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 7.0 13.7 20.5 23.0 19.4 10.4 2.7
Florida Gulf Coast 9 - 9 13 - 16 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 4.9 11.5 18.1 22.2 20.7 13.6 5.6 1.1
Central Arkansas 11 - 7 14 - 15 0.1 0.4 1.9 5.7 11.8 19.0 21.9 19.4 12.5 5.7 1.5 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 9 - 9 11 - 18 0.1 0.7 2.6 7.2 13.8 19.8 21.2 17.3 10.8 5.0 1.4 0.2
Jacksonville 7 - 11 10 - 19 0.2 1.3 4.4 10.9 17.6 21.4 19.7 13.9 7.2 2.6 0.8 0.1
Bellarmine 7 - 11 10 - 18 0.3 1.9 6.1 12.8 18.9 21.5 18.4 11.7 6.0 2.0 0.5 0.1
North Alabama 5 - 13 8 - 19 1.8 7.8 16.3 22.4 21.5 15.9 9.0 3.8 1.2 0.3 0.0
Stetson 7 - 11 9 - 20 1.1 5.5 13.3 20.1 22.1 18.4 11.7 5.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 7 - 11 11 - 17 1.8 8.3 17.4 22.8 21.7 15.4 7.9 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Florida 5 - 13 5 - 24 3.1 10.7 19.5 23.9 20.0 12.9 6.6 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Austin Peay 34.6% 19.8 11.9 2.7 0.2
Lipscomb 23.5% 11.9 8.9 2.5 0.1
Queens 62.5% 45.2 14.4 2.9 0.1
Florida Gulf Coast 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 4.2% 1.4 1.7 0.9 0.1
Eastern Kentucky 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0% 0.0
Bellarmine 0.0% 0.0 0.0
North Alabama
Stetson
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Florida


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Austin Peay 23.7% 23.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 3.0 9.1 9.3 1.5 76.3 0.0%
Lipscomb 22.4% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.7 9.0 8.9 1.4 77.6 0.0%
Queens 23.8% 23.8% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.3 2.4 7.7 11.2 2.0 76.2 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.6 5.7 91.2 0.0%
Central Arkansas 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.6 90.5 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 5.3 93.9 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.1 97.7 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.9 97.9 0.0%
North Alabama 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Stetson 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8 99.2 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
North Florida 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 92.9% 0.9 7.1 92.9
2nd Round 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Austin Peay 23.7% 0.2% 23.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 22.4% 0.2% 22.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 23.8% 0.2% 23.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 8.8% 3.3% 7.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 9.5% 2.8% 8.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 6.1% 4.5% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.3% 1.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.1% 1.7% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%