Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
144 Lipscomb 32.9%   15   5 - 5 0 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 5 +1.2      -0.7 180 +1.8 115 75.0 49 +1.4 150 0.0 1
186 Florida Gulf Coast 16.7%   4 - 7 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 6 -1.8      +1.0 136 -2.8 271 70.8 142 -4.5 240 0.0 1
195 Austin Peay 15.1%   4 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 7 -2.3      -4.0 277 +1.7 119 69.6 185 -0.4 172 0.0 1
211 Queens 11.5%   4 - 7 0 - 0 15 - 15 11 - 7 -3.3      +3.6 92 -6.9 348 70.7 147 -3.8 226 0.0 1
244 North Alabama 7.4%   3 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 8 -4.8      -3.0 249 -1.8 231 66.6 255 -2.9 209 0.0 1
259 Eastern Kentucky 5.4%   2 - 9 0 - 0 11 - 18 9 - 9 -5.4      -1.7 213 -3.7 300 69.1 195 -8.4 299 0.0 1
267 Bellarmine 5.0%   3 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -5.8      +0.7 147 -6.5 345 66.1 271 -5.9 251 0.0 1
282 Central Arkansas 4.0%   3 - 8 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 9 -6.5      -4.9 303 -1.5 214 71.6 123 -7.7 280 0.0 1
316 West Georgia 0.0%   4 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 17 7 - 11 -9.0      -4.8 298 -4.2 315 70.4 157 -3.3 221 0.0 1
317 Jacksonville 1.5%   3 - 8 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -9.1      -5.2 313 -3.9 307 64.2 316 -6.4 260 0.0 1
349 Stetson 0.3%   2 - 9 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 13 -12.4      -6.4 336 -5.9 344 68.8 203 -10.9 326 0.0 1
350 North Florida 0.3%   0 - 10 0 - 0 5 - 24 5 - 13 -12.6      -3.2 255 -9.4 365 78.6 15 -17.0 352 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 186 Florida Gulf Coast 80 49 Central Florida 102   
Sun, Dec 21 259 Eastern Kentucky 57 98 Wichita St. 88   
Sun, Dec 21 195 Austin Peay 0 343 UMKC 0   
Sun, Dec 21 282 Central Arkansas 82 42 SMU 99   
Sun, Dec 21 35 Miami (FL) 105 350 North Florida 67   
Mon, Dec 22 113 Florida St. 87 317 Jacksonville 63   
Mon, Dec 22 22 Georgia 103 316 West Georgia 74   
Mon, Dec 22 45 Oklahoma 107 349 Stetson 54   
Tue, Dec 23 267 Bellarmine 85 20 Kentucky 99   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 28 142 Columbia 87 350 North Florida 77 84%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Lipscomb 2.2 48.7 21.3 12.4 7.1 4.7 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 3.5 21.5 20.1 16.7 13.3 9.5 7.3 4.7 3.3 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1
Austin Peay 3.8 19.4 18.1 15.9 13.3 10.7 7.9 5.8 4.0 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.2
Queens 4.1 15.3 17.9 16.0 13.6 11.1 8.5 6.5 4.8 3.1 1.9 1.0 0.4
North Alabama 5.3 6.9 10.8 12.0 12.9 12.6 11.7 10.4 8.6 6.4 4.4 2.4 1.0
Eastern Kentucky 6.1 4.3 7.3 9.1 10.5 12.0 12.1 12.1 10.5 9.2 7.0 4.2 1.7
Bellarmine 6.3 4.1 6.3 8.3 9.8 11.2 12.0 12.0 10.9 9.7 7.8 5.3 2.5
Central Arkansas 6.3 3.3 6.0 8.3 10.3 11.9 12.6 12.4 11.2 9.6 7.4 4.8 2.2
West Georgia 7.8 1.2 2.7 4.2 6.1 8.0 9.4 11.2 12.2 13.2 13.3 10.9 7.6
Jacksonville 8.1 0.9 2.0 3.3 4.9 6.8 8.8 11.1 13.3 14.3 14.1 12.2 8.3
Stetson 9.9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.3 5.4 8.2 11.6 17.0 23.4 26.7
North Florida 10.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.4 5.2 7.9 11.5 16.6 22.4 28.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Lipscomb 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 5.3 8.8 12.6 16.1 17.0 15.7 11.4 5.8 1.8
Florida Gulf Coast 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 2.9 5.4 8.4 11.5 14.6 15.4 14.7 11.5 7.6 4.0 1.3 0.2
Austin Peay 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 3.8 6.5 9.6 12.5 13.8 14.7 13.6 10.4 6.9 3.4 1.2 0.2
Queens 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.5 7.5 10.2 13.1 14.6 14.3 12.6 9.3 5.8 2.9 0.9 0.2
North Alabama 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.0 5.7 8.9 11.7 13.8 14.6 13.4 10.9 7.7 4.6 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.8 5.1 8.4 11.5 13.9 14.2 13.7 11.0 8.2 4.8 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Bellarmine 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.7 6.2 9.1 11.8 13.7 14.2 12.8 10.3 7.2 4.4 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Central Arkansas 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.2 5.8 8.8 12.2 14.2 15.0 13.7 10.6 7.0 4.0 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.8 7.5 11.1 13.6 14.2 13.4 11.5 8.5 6.0 3.4 1.8 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.3 5.3 8.8 12.3 14.4 15.4 13.2 10.9 7.9 4.5 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Stetson 5 - 13 1.0 4.3 8.9 13.8 16.7 16.7 13.9 10.6 6.9 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Florida 5 - 13 1.2 4.5 9.4 14.1 16.6 16.2 13.9 10.0 6.5 4.0 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 48.7% 35.4 10.4 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 21.5% 13.1 6.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay 19.4% 11.8 5.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Queens 15.3% 8.6 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.0
North Alabama 6.9% 3.5 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 4.3% 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Bellarmine 4.1% 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 3.3% 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stetson 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
North Florida 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 32.9% 32.9% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.2 1.7 7.7 12.4 9.0 1.8 67.1 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.6 7.0 5.1 83.3 0.0%
Austin Peay 15.1% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.9 6.4 3.3 84.9 0.0%
Queens 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.7 4.7 88.5 0.0%
North Alabama 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.0 3.1 92.6 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.1 94.6 0.0%
Bellarmine 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.3 95.0 0.0%
Central Arkansas 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 96.0 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.3 98.5 0.0%
Stetson 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
North Florida 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lipscomb 32.9% 0.4% 32.7% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 16.7% 1.8% 15.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 15.1% 1.0% 14.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 11.5% 2.1% 10.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 7.4% 1.5% 6.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 5.4% 3.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 5.0% 2.1% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 4.0% 2.1% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 92.6% 0.9 7.4 92.6
2nd Round 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0