Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
166 Austin Peay 29.2%   15   19 - 7 15 - 2 -0.4      -0.7 185 +0.3 159 71.1 111 +2.3 127 +4.5 1
174 Central Arkansas 25.6%   17 - 11 14 - 3 -1.0      +0.1 163 -1.0 203 69.3 155 -0.9 175 +2.2 2
198 Lipscomb 16.1%   16 - 12 11 - 6 -2.2      -1.8 217 -0.4 182 73.4 55 -2.1 199 -3.5 4
200 Queens 17.7%   17 - 12 13 - 4 -2.3      +4.1 79 -6.4 337 72.3 79 -2.1 201 -1.1 3
257 Florida Gulf Coast 5.8%   12 - 16 8 - 9 -5.4      -2.2 232 -3.2 270 69.2 160 -6.7 272 -7.3 5
286 Eastern Kentucky 2.5%   9 - 19 7 - 10 -7.2      -0.3 169 -6.9 346 68.5 181 -8.2 296 -8.2 6
292 Bellarmine 1.4%   9 - 18 6 - 11 -7.8      +3.6 91 -11.3 365 62.6 330 -8.9 307 -9.8 9
305 Jacksonville 1.1%   9 - 19 6 - 11 -8.7      -4.6 293 -4.0 292 60.9 350 -9.0 309 -9.9 10
312 West Georgia 0.0%   11 - 16 7 - 10 -9.0      -4.3 284 -4.7 311 71.0 114 -7.5 283 -8.3 7
328 Stetson 0.5%   8 - 20 6 - 11 -10.6      -3.6 262 -7.0 349 67.8 200 -9.8 319 -9.7 8
333 North Florida 0.1%   5 - 23 5 - 12 -11.5      -1.7 213 -9.9 363 74.9 31 -13.2 345 -10.9 11
342 North Alabama 0.1%   7 - 19 4 - 13 -12.1      -5.7 317 -6.4 336 63.9 303 -10.5 327 -13.6 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 25 166 Austin Peay 88 174 Central Arkansas 93   
Wed, Feb 25 292 Bellarmine 68 342 North Alabama 73   
Wed, Feb 25 198 Lipscomb 77 312 West Georgia 84   
Wed, Feb 25 286 Eastern Kentucky 79 200 Queens 96   
Thu, Feb 26 257 Florida Gulf Coast 70 333 North Florida 76   
Thu, Feb 26 305 Jacksonville 89 328 Stetson 85   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 28 174 Central Arkansas 85 200 Queens 80 66%   
Sat, Feb 28 286 Eastern Kentucky 78 198 Lipscomb 80 58%   
Sat, Feb 28 166 Austin Peay 81 292 Bellarmine 76 66%   
Sat, Feb 28 305 Jacksonville 75 333 North Florida 76 50%   
Sat, Feb 28 257 Florida Gulf Coast 78 328 Stetson 75 59%   
Sat, Feb 28 342 North Alabama 70 312 West Georgia 76 72%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Austin Peay 1.0 100.0
Central Arkansas 1.8 22.2 77.8
Lipscomb 4.0 100.0
Queens 2.7 34.4 65.6
Florida Gulf Coast 5.0 100.0
Eastern Kentucky 6.2 17.7 41.4 40.9
Bellarmine 8.3 5.6 18.1 29.7 33.2 13.4
Jacksonville 8.0 7.8 26.4 34.6 23.8 7.5
West Georgia 5.8 30.0 58.0 12.1
Stetson 8.1 6.7 22.3 31.9 29.6 9.5
North Florida 9.9 19.3 23.8 7.5 49.5
North Alabama 11.9 13.9 86.1

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Austin Peay 16 - 2 20 - 7 34.2 65.8
Central Arkansas 15 - 3 18 - 11 34.4 65.6
Lipscomb 12 - 6 17 - 12 43.3 56.7
Queens 13 - 5 17 - 13 65.6 34.4
Florida Gulf Coast 9 - 9 13 - 16 41.7 58.4
Eastern Kentucky 7 - 11 9 - 20 56.7 43.3
Bellarmine 6 - 12 9 - 19 65.8 34.2
Jacksonville 6 - 12 9 - 20 50.5 49.5
West Georgia 8 - 10 12 - 16 27.8 72.2
Stetson 6 - 12 8 - 21 58.4 41.7
North Florida 6 - 12 6 - 23 49.5 50.5
North Alabama 4 - 14 7 - 20 72.2 27.8

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Austin Peay 100.0% 77.8 22.2
Central Arkansas 22.2% 22.2
Lipscomb
Queens
Florida Gulf Coast
Eastern Kentucky
Bellarmine
Jacksonville
West Georgia
Stetson
North Florida
North Alabama


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Austin Peay 29.2% 29.2% 0.0% 15   0.2 5.1 16.5 7.2 0.1 70.9 0.0%
Central Arkansas 25.6% 25.6% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 11.1 12.2 1.1 74.4 0.0%
Lipscomb 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.2 3.8 9.7 2.4 83.9 0.0%
Queens 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 0.1 3.2 11.0 3.4 82.3 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 5.7 94.2 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 2.5 97.5 0.0%
Bellarmine 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 1.4 98.6 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 1.1 98.9 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stetson 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
North Florida 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
North Alabama 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 94.9% 0.9 5.1 94.9
2nd Round 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Austin Peay 29.2% 0.0% 29.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 25.6% 0.0% 25.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 16.1% 0.2% 16.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 17.7% 0.4% 17.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 5.8% 5.1% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 2.5% 2.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 1.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%