Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
151 Austin Peay 34.1%   15   17 - 6 13 - 1 +0.4      -0.3 170 +0.7 147 70.9 116 +3.1 115 +7.7 1
188 Central Arkansas 20.8%   15 - 10 12 - 2 -1.7      -1.0 192 -0.7 202 69.8 146 -1.4 183 +2.5 2
195 Lipscomb 16.7%   14 - 11 9 - 5 -2.1      -1.4 204 -0.7 198 73.7 57 -1.7 191 -3.3 4
209 Queens 14.8%   14 - 12 10 - 4 -2.8      +3.5 91 -6.2 339 72.0 89 -3.1 219 -2.5 3
252 Florida Gulf Coast 5.8%   10 - 15 6 - 8 -5.0      -1.9 219 -3.1 271 69.5 156 -7.1 279 -8.1 6
269 Eastern Kentucky 3.4%   7 - 17 5 - 8 -6.1      +0.1 158 -6.2 338 68.5 185 -8.4 303 -8.5 7
292 Bellarmine 2.7%   9 - 15 6 - 8 -7.4      +3.0 99 -10.4 364 63.4 318 -7.2 282 -7.6 5
311 Jacksonville 1.0%   8 - 17 5 - 9 -9.0      -5.9 319 -3.0 269 60.9 352 -9.0 309 -9.9 10
319 West Georgia 0.0%   10 - 14 6 - 8 -9.9      -4.6 292 -5.4 322 70.6 126 -7.7 290 -8.7 8
327 Stetson 0.6%   7 - 18 5 - 9 -10.6      -4.6 295 -6.0 336 68.3 190 -9.6 317 -9.2 9
341 North Florida 0.2%   4 - 21 4 - 10 -12.3      -1.0 193 -11.3 365 75.1 33 -13.8 349 -11.2 11
344 North Alabama 0.1%   5 - 17 2 - 11 -12.4      -5.3 308 -7.1 349 64.8 281 -11.8 336 -17.0 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 11 292 Bellarmine 76 188 Central Arkansas 84   
Wed, Feb 11 151 Austin Peay 95 209 Queens 87   
Wed, Feb 11 311 Jacksonville 62 327 Stetson 67   
Wed, Feb 11 269 Eastern Kentucky 61 195 Lipscomb 75   
Wed, Feb 11 344 North Alabama 73 319 West Georgia 82   
Wed, Feb 11 252 Florida Gulf Coast 90 341 North Florida 81   
Sat, Feb 14 252 Florida Gulf Coast 78 327 Stetson 76   
Sat, Feb 14 311 Jacksonville 63 341 North Florida 56   
Sat, Feb 14 188 Central Arkansas 79 319 West Georgia 62   
Sat, Feb 14 195 Lipscomb 81 209 Queens 87   
Sat, Feb 14 151 Austin Peay 90 292 Bellarmine 70   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Feb 15 269 Eastern Kentucky 77 344 North Alabama 74 63%   
Wed, Feb 18 292 Bellarmine 79 195 Lipscomb 81 59%   
Wed, Feb 18 269 Eastern Kentucky 82 319 West Georgia 75 74%   
Wed, Feb 18 344 North Alabama 76 209 Queens 83 74%   
Thu, Feb 19 252 Florida Gulf Coast 73 311 Jacksonville 66 75%   
Thu, Feb 19 188 Central Arkansas 78 327 Stetson 72 72%   
Thu, Feb 19 151 Austin Peay 89 341 North Florida 79 82%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Austin Peay 1.1 91.5 8.4 0.1
Central Arkansas 1.9 21.8 69.8 7.7 0.7
Lipscomb 3.5 0.0 4.2 41.5 54.0 0.3 0.0
Queens 2.9 0.6 21.4 60.8 17.1
Florida Gulf Coast 5.7 0.0 2.0 58.3 21.7 9.2 5.1 2.2 1.3 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 6.6 0.0 1.3 30.5 23.1 17.9 12.3 9.2 5.0 0.7 0.0
Bellarmine 6.4 0.0 1.4 33.0 25.9 19.4 11.4 6.6 2.3 0.0
Jacksonville 8.2 0.0 7.4 10.9 17.2 19.7 18.8 19.2 6.6 0.2
West Georgia 7.0 0.0 0.5 16.7 21.4 25.2 20.2 12.1 3.9 0.1
Stetson 8.2 0.0 7.8 10.9 16.0 18.7 18.5 19.4 8.5 0.2
North Florida 10.1 0.5 1.6 4.0 6.5 11.6 20.7 50.8 4.3
North Alabama 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 14.8 80.9

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Austin Peay 16 - 2 20 - 7 0.8 6.6 23.7 39.9 29.1
Central Arkansas 14 - 4 17 - 12 4.1 20.2 37.4 29.9 8.4
Lipscomb 12 - 6 17 - 12 0.8 9.4 29.5 39.5 20.7
Queens 12 - 6 16 - 14 1.9 13.5 36.1 36.3 12.3
Florida Gulf Coast 8 - 10 12 - 17 2.3 13.7 32.6 35.9 15.5
Eastern Kentucky 8 - 10 10 - 19 2.2 11.6 27.3 32.9 20.4 5.6
Bellarmine 8 - 10 11 - 17 8.2 27.7 36.4 22.6 5.2
Jacksonville 7 - 11 10 - 19 9.4 32.7 37.7 17.2 3.0
West Georgia 7 - 11 11 - 17 13.7 41.9 32.6 10.6 1.2
Stetson 7 - 11 9 - 20 10.5 33.2 36.0 17.1 3.2
North Florida 5 - 13 5 - 24 20.0 39.2 29.1 10.4 1.3
North Alabama 3 - 15 6 - 21 18.6 35.5 29.2 13.4 3.1 0.2

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Austin Peay 91.5% 78.0 13.2 0.3 0.0
Central Arkansas 21.8% 8.4 13.0 0.3 0.0
Lipscomb 0.0% 0.0
Queens 0.6% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast
Eastern Kentucky
Bellarmine
Jacksonville
West Georgia
Stetson
North Florida
North Alabama


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Austin Peay 34.1% 34.1% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.8 9.4 17.0 6.5 0.2 66.0 0.0%
Central Arkansas 20.8% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 5.5 11.3 3.4 79.2 0.0%
Lipscomb 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 4.7 8.1 3.0 83.3 0.0%
Queens 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.1 7.3 5.3 85.2 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 4.8 94.2 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 3.4 96.6 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 2.6 97.3 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 99.0 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stetson 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.5 0.0%
North Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
North Alabama 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 93.9% 0.9 6.1 93.9
2nd Round 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Austin Peay 34.1% 0.0% 34.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 20.8% 0.4% 20.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 16.7% 0.5% 16.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 14.8% 1.3% 14.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 5.8% 3.9% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 3.4% 3.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.7% 2.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%