Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
107 Lipscomb 41.4%   14   6 - 5 0 - 0 21 - 8 15 - 3 +4.2      +1.5 132 +2.8 101 69.4 166 +2.3 135 0.0 1
182 North Alabama 11.9%   6 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 -1.1      -0.1 175 -1.0 200 69.0 180 -0.4 172 0.0 1
188 North Florida 12.1%   5 - 5 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 6 -1.3      +3.8 82 -5.1 326 75.3 40 +2.6 129 0.0 1
192 Florida Gulf Coast 11.3%   3 - 8 0 - 0 15 - 15 12 - 6 -1.3      -0.4 180 -1.0 201 61.7 345 -3.7 232 0.0 1
205 Jacksonville 9.8%   4 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 -2.0      -3.8 283 +1.7 121 70.0 152 +1.4 145 0.0 1
220 Eastern Kentucky 7.4%   4 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 -2.8      +0.3 159 -3.1 274 70.5 138 -0.2 170 0.0 1
270 Queens 2.8%   5 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -5.7      -2.2 236 -3.6 286 74.9 46 -1.8 194 0.0 1
273 Austin Peay 2.5%   3 - 7 0 - 0 12 - 17 9 - 9 -6.1      -6.0 335 -0.1 172 62.2 342 -3.6 228 0.0 1
339 Central Arkansas 0.2%   2 - 8 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 13 -11.3      -6.9 346 -4.4 310 68.0 209 -13.3 342 0.0 1
341 West Georgia 0.2%   1 - 11 0 - 0 6 - 24 5 - 13 -11.4      -6.0 337 -5.4 333 68.6 189 -14.4 347 0.0 1
343 Bellarmine 0.2%   1 - 9 0 - 0 6 - 23 5 - 13 -11.7      -2.5 241 -9.1 362 65.4 268 -18.0 360 0.0 1
344 Stetson 0.1%   0 - 10 0 - 0 5 - 24 5 - 13 -11.8      -4.5 298 -7.3 355 69.8 156 -20.1 362 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Lipscomb 1.7 62.1 19.7 8.9 4.7 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 4.0 12.9 16.9 17.5 15.2 12.8 9.6 7.2 4.5 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1
North Florida 3.9 13.7 19.0 16.9 14.5 12.5 9.3 6.6 3.9 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1
Florida Gulf Coast 3.8 13.3 20.0 18.4 14.8 12.2 9.0 6.2 3.6 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
Jacksonville 4.3 11.1 15.7 15.8 14.9 13.1 11.0 8.3 5.1 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 5.0 6.8 10.9 12.9 14.1 14.6 13.3 11.6 7.8 4.5 2.1 0.9 0.4
Queens 6.3 2.3 4.9 7.4 9.8 12.5 13.9 15.4 13.5 9.3 6.1 3.4 1.4
Austin Peay 6.5 1.8 3.9 6.8 9.4 12.0 14.2 15.6 14.9 10.0 6.2 3.5 1.7
Central Arkansas 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 3.7 6.6 11.0 16.4 19.7 20.1 18.6
West Georgia 9.4 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.3 7.3 12.1 17.6 19.1 18.7 16.3
Bellarmine 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.2 5.8 9.8 15.5 19.7 21.9 20.8
Stetson 9.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.9 7.1 11.3 16.9 19.1 19.3 17.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Lipscomb 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 4.5 7.7 12.5 17.2 20.3 18.5 11.9 4.1
North Alabama 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.8 6.5 9.7 12.6 15.2 15.5 13.9 10.2 6.0 2.8 1.0 0.1
North Florida 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.5 5.9 9.1 12.2 14.8 15.2 13.7 10.9 6.9 3.4 1.2 0.2
Florida Gulf Coast 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.3 9.0 12.1 14.8 16.1 14.5 11.4 7.0 3.3 1.1 0.2
Jacksonville 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.7 7.6 10.7 13.2 14.9 14.6 12.1 9.0 5.4 2.5 0.9 0.1
Eastern Kentucky 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.2 7.1 10.3 13.3 14.9 14.6 12.5 9.4 5.8 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.0
Queens 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.1 5.6 8.9 12.4 14.0 14.7 13.4 10.7 7.2 4.6 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.2 6.3 9.7 12.8 14.8 14.8 13.1 10.2 6.8 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 5 - 13 0.8 3.8 8.5 13.5 16.4 16.8 14.4 11.0 7.3 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 5 - 13 0.7 2.9 7.4 11.9 16.0 16.6 15.3 11.7 8.1 4.8 2.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Bellarmine 5 - 13 1.1 4.6 9.8 14.5 17.2 16.8 13.7 9.8 6.4 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stetson 5 - 13 0.8 3.3 8.0 12.9 16.7 16.2 14.6 11.2 7.5 4.6 2.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 62.1% 47.4 12.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 12.9% 7.0 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
North Florida 13.7% 7.5 4.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 13.3% 7.0 4.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 11.1% 5.8 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 6.8% 3.5 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Queens 2.3% 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay 1.8% 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bellarmine 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stetson 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 41.4% 41.4% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5 9.3 15.8 11.0 3.3 0.3 58.6 0.0%
North Alabama 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.0 4.3 1.3 88.1 0.0%
North Florida 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 3.3 4.3 3.0 0.6 87.9 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.1 3.9 2.5 88.7 0.0%
Jacksonville 9.8% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.2 3.5 1.1 90.2 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 2.9 1.4 92.6 0.0%
Queens 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.3 97.2 0.0%
Austin Peay 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 97.5 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
West Georgia 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Stetson 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lipscomb 41.4% 0.1% 41.4% 5.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 11.9% 0.4% 11.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 12.1% 0.1% 12.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 11.3% 1.2% 10.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 9.8% 0.4% 9.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 7.4% 0.5% 7.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 2.8% 0.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 2.5% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 97.7% 1.0 2.3 97.7 0.0
2nd Round 8.5% 0.1 91.5 8.5
Sweet Sixteen 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0