Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
148 Austin Peay 34.8%   15   17 - 6 13 - 1 +0.4      -0.3 172 +0.8 147 71.0 113 +3.1 116 +7.6 1
184 Central Arkansas 21.5%   15 - 10 12 - 2 -1.5      -0.9 188 -0.7 195 69.8 143 -1.4 181 +2.5 2
192 Lipscomb 16.8%   15 - 11 10 - 5 -2.0      -1.6 214 -0.4 186 73.5 57 -1.2 177 -2.5 4
205 Queens 14.8%   15 - 12 11 - 4 -2.7      +3.6 91 -6.4 339 72.0 88 -2.8 212 -2.0 3
253 Florida Gulf Coast 5.3%   11 - 15 7 - 8 -5.1      -1.3 203 -3.9 291 69.7 148 -6.7 276 -7.5 5
278 Eastern Kentucky 2.6%   8 - 18 6 - 9 -6.8      -0.8 183 -6.0 332 68.5 183 -8.6 307 -8.8 7
288 Bellarmine 2.5%   9 - 16 6 - 9 -7.3      +3.0 98 -10.3 364 63.1 328 -7.7 290 -8.2 6
310 Jacksonville 1.2%   8 - 18 5 - 10 -8.8      -5.2 307 -3.6 281 61.0 350 -9.2 311 -10.2 10
316 West Georgia 0.0%   10 - 15 6 - 9 -9.7      -4.9 304 -4.8 311 70.7 119 -8.0 296 -9.1 8
325 Stetson 0.6%   7 - 18 5 - 9 -10.5      -4.6 289 -5.9 329 68.3 188 -9.5 315 -9.1 9
340 North Alabama 0.0%   6 - 18 3 - 12 -12.0      -5.2 308 -6.8 345 64.7 286 -11.2 332 -15.0 12
343 North Florida 0.1%   4 - 21 4 - 10 -12.3      -0.9 191 -11.4 365 75.1 31 -13.7 350 -11.1 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sun, Feb 15 278 Eastern Kentucky 78 340 North Alabama 84   
Wed, Feb 18 340 North Alabama 78 205 Queens 85   
Wed, Feb 18 288 Bellarmine 72 192 Lipscomb 75   
Wed, Feb 18 253 Florida Gulf Coast 86 310 Jacksonville 84   
Wed, Feb 18 278 Eastern Kentucky 81 316 West Georgia 80   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 19 184 Central Arkansas 78 325 Stetson 72 72%   
Thu, Feb 19 148 Austin Peay 89 343 North Florida 79 82%   
Sat, Feb 21 184 Central Arkansas 77 253 Florida Gulf Coast 76 52%   
Sat, Feb 21 288 Bellarmine 81 278 Eastern Kentucky 78 60%   
Sat, Feb 21 205 Queens 87 316 West Georgia 77 83%   
Sat, Feb 21 343 North Florida 81 325 Stetson 86 68%   
Sat, Feb 21 148 Austin Peay 73 310 Jacksonville 67 72%   
Sat, Feb 21 192 Lipscomb 81 340 North Alabama 68 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Austin Peay 1.1 91.3 8.6 0.1
Central Arkansas 1.9 22.2 67.6 8.9 1.3
Lipscomb 3.4 5.8 46.7 47.5
Queens 2.9 0.8 25.1 58.4 15.7
Florida Gulf Coast 5.2 0.3 83.5 10.8 3.6 1.5 0.3 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 6.9 17.8 29.6 21.1 14.8 12.4 4.3 0.1
Bellarmine 6.6 22.6 34.7 19.3 11.9 8.5 3.0 0.1
Jacksonville 8.3 3.3 12.2 19.3 17.6 19.1 19.9 8.5 0.1
West Georgia 7.0 12.3 26.0 29.2 18.0 10.8 3.6 0.1
Stetson 7.9 11.2 13.9 18.6 16.2 16.1 15.6 8.2 0.1
North Alabama 11.7 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.7 20.9 76.2
North Florida 10.0 0.9 2.4 5.0 6.7 12.1 18.7 49.7 4.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Austin Peay 16 - 2 20 - 7 0.7 6.9 23.2 40.0 29.2
Central Arkansas 14 - 4 17 - 12 4.1 19.5 37.3 30.6 8.6
Lipscomb 12 - 6 17 - 12 1.7 18.6 45.2 34.5
Queens 13 - 5 17 - 13 5.8 33.6 44.1 16.5
Florida Gulf Coast 9 - 9 13 - 16 7.9 31.2 41.2 19.7
Eastern Kentucky 7 - 11 9 - 20 18.8 40.6 31.8 8.8
Bellarmine 7 - 11 10 - 18 12.7 38.2 37.2 11.9
Jacksonville 6 - 12 9 - 20 12.1 39.1 38.1 10.7
West Georgia 7 - 11 11 - 17 18.0 49.1 28.4 4.6
Stetson 7 - 11 9 - 20 10.3 33.2 36.2 17.2 3.1
North Alabama 4 - 14 7 - 20 35.6 45.8 16.8 1.9
North Florida 5 - 13 5 - 24 20.4 39.2 29.4 9.7 1.3

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Austin Peay 91.3% 77.6 13.3 0.5
Central Arkansas 22.2% 8.6 13.1 0.5
Lipscomb
Queens 0.8% 0.0 0.3 0.5
Florida Gulf Coast
Eastern Kentucky
Bellarmine
Jacksonville
West Georgia
Stetson
North Alabama
North Florida


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Austin Peay 34.8% 34.8% 0.0% 15   0.9 9.3 17.7 6.6 0.2 65.2 0.0%
Central Arkansas 21.5% 21.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 6.0 11.4 3.3 78.5 0.0%
Lipscomb 16.8% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 5.5 8.1 2.2 83.2 0.0%
Queens 14.8% 14.8% 0.0% 0.2 2.4 7.5 4.7 85.2 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.7 4.6 94.7 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 2.6 97.5 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 2.5 97.5 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2 98.8 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stetson 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
North Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
North Florida 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 94.3% 0.9 5.7 94.3
2nd Round 1.7% 0.0 98.4 1.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Austin Peay 34.8% 0.0% 34.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 21.5% 0.3% 21.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 16.8% 0.2% 16.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 14.8% 0.9% 14.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 5.3% 3.7% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 2.6% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.5% 2.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%