Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
154 Austin Peay 31.6%   15   18 - 6 14 - 1 0.0      -1.1 197 +1.1 137 71.5 103 +3.3 111 +7.9 1
180 Central Arkansas 23.4%   16 - 10 13 - 2 -1.3      -0.4 171 -0.9 199 69.6 146 -1.0 174 +2.9 2
191 Lipscomb 16.7%   15 - 11 10 - 5 -2.0      -1.5 215 -0.5 183 73.5 56 -1.2 179 -2.5 4
203 Queens 15.5%   15 - 12 11 - 4 -2.7      +3.7 89 -6.4 337 72.0 87 -2.8 214 -2.0 3
251 Florida Gulf Coast 5.4%   11 - 15 7 - 8 -5.1      -1.2 200 -3.9 291 69.6 144 -6.6 275 -7.5 5
278 Eastern Kentucky 2.8%   8 - 18 6 - 9 -6.8      -0.8 185 -6.0 333 68.5 184 -8.6 309 -8.8 7
287 Bellarmine 2.6%   9 - 16 6 - 9 -7.2      +3.0 98 -10.2 364 63.0 328 -7.6 287 -8.1 6
308 Jacksonville 1.3%   8 - 18 5 - 10 -8.7      -5.1 308 -3.6 280 61.0 350 -9.2 312 -10.2 10
318 West Georgia 0.0%   10 - 15 6 - 9 -9.6      -4.8 296 -4.8 311 70.7 118 -7.9 294 -9.0 8
327 Stetson 0.4%   7 - 19 5 - 10 -10.7      -4.2 282 -6.5 339 68.0 198 -9.8 319 -9.6 9
339 North Florida 0.2%   4 - 22 4 - 11 -11.9      -1.3 201 -10.6 365 75.6 28 -13.9 350 -11.5 11
340 North Alabama 0.1%   6 - 18 3 - 12 -12.0      -5.3 310 -6.7 343 64.7 285 -11.1 330 -15.0 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 18 340 North Alabama 78 203 Queens 85   
Wed, Feb 18 287 Bellarmine 72 191 Lipscomb 75   
Wed, Feb 18 251 Florida Gulf Coast 86 308 Jacksonville 84   
Wed, Feb 18 278 Eastern Kentucky 81 318 West Georgia 80   
Thu, Feb 19 154 Austin Peay 77 339 North Florida 76   
Thu, Feb 19 180 Central Arkansas 88 327 Stetson 76   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 21 180 Central Arkansas 77 251 Florida Gulf Coast 76 53%   
Sat, Feb 21 287 Bellarmine 81 278 Eastern Kentucky 78 60%   
Sat, Feb 21 339 North Florida 81 327 Stetson 85 66%   
Sat, Feb 21 203 Queens 87 318 West Georgia 77 82%   
Sat, Feb 21 154 Austin Peay 72 308 Jacksonville 67 71%   
Sat, Feb 21 191 Lipscomb 81 340 North Alabama 68 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Austin Peay 1.1 90.6 9.4
Central Arkansas 1.8 24.8 69.8 5.5
Lipscomb 3.5 2.1 47.0 50.9
Queens 3.0 0.4 18.6 65.8 15.3
Florida Gulf Coast 5.2 0.4 84.3 10.9 3.3 1.1 0.1
Eastern Kentucky 6.8 19.2 30.3 21.3 14.2 12.2 2.9
Bellarmine 6.5 24.6 35.4 19.2 11.2 7.9 1.8
Jacksonville 8.2 3.6 12.9 20.8 18.7 19.4 17.6 6.9 0.1
West Georgia 6.9 13.3 27.2 30.8 16.5 10.0 2.2
Stetson 8.4 5.5 10.0 16.9 17.1 20.1 19.9 10.4 0.2
North Florida 10.1 0.3 1.7 4.0 6.5 12.2 19.9 51.0 4.4
North Alabama 11.7 0.1 0.4 0.7 2.2 23.0 73.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Austin Peay 16 - 2 20 - 7 4.0 21.5 42.7 31.9
Central Arkansas 15 - 3 18 - 11 11.6 36.7 38.5 13.2
Lipscomb 12 - 6 17 - 12 2.0 18.5 45.4 34.1
Queens 13 - 5 17 - 13 5.6 33.1 45.4 15.9
Florida Gulf Coast 9 - 9 13 - 16 8.6 31.6 40.6 19.1
Eastern Kentucky 7 - 11 9 - 20 19.3 40.1 31.7 9.0
Bellarmine 8 - 10 11 - 17 12.4 37.6 37.7 12.4
Jacksonville 6 - 12 9 - 20 12.2 38.2 39.1 10.6
West Georgia 7 - 11 11 - 17 18.2 48.7 28.7 4.4
Stetson 6 - 12 8 - 21 15.0 41.4 34.3 9.3
North Florida 5 - 13 5 - 24 22.3 42.7 27.9 7.1
North Alabama 4 - 14 7 - 20 35.9 44.7 17.8 1.7

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Austin Peay 90.6% 75.2 15.1 0.4
Central Arkansas 24.8% 9.4 15.1 0.4
Lipscomb
Queens 0.4% 0.4
Florida Gulf Coast
Eastern Kentucky
Bellarmine
Jacksonville
West Georgia
Stetson
North Florida
North Alabama


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Austin Peay 31.6% 31.6% 0.0% 15   0.5 7.6 17.1 6.3 0.1 68.4 0.0%
Central Arkansas 23.4% 23.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 7.7 12.4 2.3 76.6 0.0%
Lipscomb 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 5.7 7.9 2.2 83.3 0.0%
Queens 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.6 8.3 4.5 84.5 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 4.6 94.6 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 2.8 97.2 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 2.6 97.4 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 1.3 98.7 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stetson 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
North Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
North Alabama 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 94.4% 0.9 5.6 94.4
2nd Round 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Austin Peay 31.6% 0.0% 31.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 23.4% 0.2% 23.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 16.7% 0.4% 16.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 15.5% 0.8% 15.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 5.4% 3.8% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 2.8% 2.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.6% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%