Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
167 Austin Peay 28.8%   15   19 - 7 15 - 2 -0.4      -0.7 181 +0.3 160 71.1 112 +2.3 127 +4.6 1
177 Central Arkansas 25.4%   17 - 11 14 - 3 -1.0      +0.1 162 -1.1 206 69.3 156 -0.9 174 +2.3 2
199 Lipscomb 15.6%   16 - 12 11 - 6 -2.2      -1.8 220 -0.4 184 73.3 58 -2.0 200 -3.5 4
203 Queens 18.1%   17 - 12 13 - 4 -2.3      +4.1 79 -6.5 339 72.4 80 -2.1 201 -1.1 3
251 Florida Gulf Coast 6.4%   12 - 15 8 - 8 -5.0      -1.5 213 -3.4 277 69.4 148 -6.0 262 -6.4 5
286 Eastern Kentucky 2.5%   9 - 19 7 - 10 -7.2      -0.3 169 -6.9 348 68.5 177 -8.2 298 -8.2 6
292 Bellarmine 1.5%   9 - 18 6 - 11 -7.8      +3.6 91 -11.3 365 62.6 332 -8.9 309 -9.8 9
307 Jacksonville 1.1%   8 - 19 5 - 11 -8.6      -5.3 308 -3.3 274 60.7 351 -9.4 316 -10.5 10
312 West Georgia 0.0%   11 - 16 7 - 10 -9.0      -4.3 283 -4.7 310 71.0 115 -7.5 283 -8.3 7
326 Stetson 0.6%   8 - 19 6 - 10 -10.6      -4.3 285 -6.3 334 67.6 209 -9.4 317 -9.2 8
338 North Florida 0.1%   4 - 23 4 - 12 -12.0      -1.5 208 -10.5 364 75.1 30 -14.4 352 -12.1 11
341 North Alabama 0.1%   7 - 19 4 - 13 -12.1      -5.7 317 -6.4 337 63.9 305 -10.5 325 -13.6 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 25 167 Austin Peay 88 177 Central Arkansas 93   
Wed, Feb 25 292 Bellarmine 68 341 North Alabama 73   
Wed, Feb 25 199 Lipscomb 77 312 West Georgia 84   
Wed, Feb 25 286 Eastern Kentucky 79 203 Queens 96   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 26 307 Jacksonville 72 326 Stetson 67 69%   
Thu, Feb 26 251 Florida Gulf Coast 86 338 North Florida 82 65%   
Sat, Feb 28 177 Central Arkansas 85 203 Queens 80 66%   
Sat, Feb 28 286 Eastern Kentucky 78 199 Lipscomb 80 58%   
Sat, Feb 28 167 Austin Peay 81 292 Bellarmine 77 66%   
Sat, Feb 28 251 Florida Gulf Coast 77 326 Stetson 75 60%   
Sat, Feb 28 341 North Alabama 70 312 West Georgia 76 72%   
Sat, Feb 28 307 Jacksonville 77 338 North Florida 76 51%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Austin Peay 1.0 100.0
Central Arkansas 1.8 22.3 77.7
Lipscomb 4.0 100.0
Queens 2.7 34.1 65.9
Florida Gulf Coast 5.0 100.0
Eastern Kentucky 6.4 6.3 51.1 37.3 5.3
Bellarmine 8.4 5.0 16.3 24.2 45.4 9.1
Jacksonville 8.5 6.0 18.5 24.0 26.5 19.1 5.9
West Georgia 6.1 10.6 75.0 12.8 1.6
Stetson 7.7 4.8 15.7 23.5 27.0 21.5 7.5
North Florida 10.6 4.3 9.8 13.2 62.5 10.2
North Alabama 11.5 2.8 47.3 49.9

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Austin Peay 16 - 2 20 - 7 33.9 66.1
Central Arkansas 15 - 3 18 - 11 34.1 65.9
Lipscomb 12 - 6 17 - 12 43.0 57.0
Queens 13 - 5 17 - 13 65.9 34.1
Florida Gulf Coast 9 - 9 13 - 16 14.2 45.8 40.1
Eastern Kentucky 7 - 11 9 - 20 57.0 43.0
Bellarmine 6 - 12 9 - 19 66.1 33.9
Jacksonville 6 - 12 9 - 20 15.7 48.8 35.6
West Georgia 8 - 10 12 - 16 28.8 71.2
Stetson 7 - 11 9 - 20 42.0 44.9 13.1
North Florida 5 - 13 5 - 24 34.4 48.1 17.5
North Alabama 4 - 14 7 - 20 71.2 28.8

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Austin Peay 100.0% 77.7 22.3
Central Arkansas 22.3% 22.3
Lipscomb
Queens
Florida Gulf Coast
Eastern Kentucky
Bellarmine
Jacksonville
West Georgia
Stetson
North Florida
North Alabama


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Austin Peay 28.8% 28.8% 0.0% 15   0.2 5.7 16.3 6.5 0.2 71.2 0.0%
Central Arkansas 25.4% 25.4% 0.0% 1.3 11.0 12.1 1.0 74.6 0.0%
Lipscomb 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 0.3 3.9 9.2 2.3 84.4 0.0%
Queens 18.1% 18.1% 0.0% 0.2 3.5 10.9 3.6 81.9 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 1.2 5.2 93.6 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 2.5 97.6 0.0%
Bellarmine 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5 98.6 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 1.1 98.9 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stetson 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.5 0.0%
North Florida 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
North Alabama 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.4% 1.0 4.6 95.4
2nd Round 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Austin Peay 28.8% 0.0% 28.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 25.4% 0.1% 25.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 15.6% 0.3% 15.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 18.1% 0.5% 17.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 6.4% 3.5% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 2.5% 2.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%