Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
168 Lipscomb 25.9%   15   12 - 7 7 - 1 -0.7      -1.3 201 +0.6 149 73.3 67 +1.7 136 +2.6 3
178 Austin Peay 23.7%   11 - 6 7 - 1 -1.3      -2.9 252 +1.6 119 70.6 134 +1.1 145 +4.6 1
186 Queens 20.2%   11 - 9 7 - 1 -1.9      +2.9 96 -4.8 311 70.7 129 -0.7 174 +3.2 2
233 Central Arkansas 10.6%   8 - 10 5 - 2 -4.1      -2.5 241 -1.6 226 68.2 202 -5.2 244 -3.3 4
234 Florida Gulf Coast 7.7%   6 - 13 2 - 6 -4.2      +0.5 149 -4.6 307 69.0 173 -7.4 284 -10.5 10
260 Eastern Kentucky 5.9%   5 - 14 3 - 5 -5.3      +0.3 151 -5.6 329 68.4 198 -8.7 307 -9.6 9
285 Jacksonville 2.9%   6 - 13 3 - 5 -7.2      -4.7 297 -2.5 252 61.9 345 -7.4 283 -8.7 7
303 Bellarmine 1.8%   5 - 13 2 - 6 -8.3      +1.6 122 -9.9 364 65.3 277 -9.0 312 -11.8 11
328 West Georgia 0.0%   8 - 10 4 - 4 -10.4      -4.8 299 -5.6 334 70.3 141 -6.2 265 -6.7 5
329 Stetson 0.7%   5 - 14 3 - 5 -10.5      -5.0 302 -5.6 330 69.0 174 -8.7 306 -6.9 6
330 North Alabama 0.4%   4 - 12 1 - 6 -10.5      -4.2 285 -6.3 344 66.6 241 -10.5 329 -18.7 12
348 North Florida 0.2%   3 - 16 3 - 5 -12.2      -0.3 171 -11.9 365 77.0 22 -13.1 344 -8.7 7


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Jan 21 330 North Alabama 62 186 Queens 87   
Thu, Jan 22 303 Bellarmine 77 285 Jacksonville 70   
Thu, Jan 22 260 Eastern Kentucky 85 348 North Florida 87   
Thu, Jan 22 168 Lipscomb 79 329 Stetson 74   
Thu, Jan 22 178 Austin Peay 83 234 Florida Gulf Coast 62   
Thu, Jan 22 233 Central Arkansas 86 328 West Georgia 65   
Fri, Jan 23 178 Austin Peay 73 329 Stetson 65   
Fri, Jan 23 234 Florida Gulf Coast 71 168 Lipscomb 86   
Sat, Jan 24 260 Eastern Kentucky 76 285 Jacksonville 81   
Sat, Jan 24 186 Queens 66 328 West Georgia 74   
Sat, Jan 24 303 Bellarmine 114 348 North Florida 117   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 28 233 Central Arkansas 75 186 Queens 81 69%   
Wed, Jan 28 178 Austin Peay 76 260 Eastern Kentucky 75 54%   
Wed, Jan 28 303 Bellarmine 81 328 West Georgia 76 69%   
Thu, Jan 29 285 Jacksonville 69 168 Lipscomb 72 63%   
Thu, Jan 29 348 North Florida 85 329 Stetson 84 55%   
Thu, Jan 29 234 Florida Gulf Coast 81 330 North Alabama 72 81%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Lipscomb 2.0 38.7 30.0 23.4 6.5 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Austin Peay 2.0 42.2 29.1 21.2 6.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Queens 1.9 42.6 29.6 19.9 6.6 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Central Arkansas 3.8 5.6 11.0 20.4 40.0 13.1 5.4 2.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 6.1 0.0 0.3 2.5 15.7 27.8 18.7 13.3 9.2 5.8 3.7 2.2 0.9
Eastern Kentucky 6.5 0.1 0.5 3.0 10.9 20.6 20.4 15.6 12.2 8.3 4.9 2.4 0.9
Jacksonville 6.9 0.0 0.3 1.7 8.1 18.8 17.7 16.1 13.1 10.9 7.4 4.5 1.4
Bellarmine 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.9 5.7 8.8 11.8 14.1 16.5 17.9 13.9 9.1
West Georgia 7.3 0.0 0.3 1.2 5.9 13.4 17.4 17.6 16.0 12.9 8.5 4.8 1.9
Stetson 8.0 0.1 0.5 4.2 10.5 12.7 14.2 15.0 15.3 12.5 9.7 5.3
North Alabama 10.5 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.4 3.7 5.8 9.3 14.1 21.1 42.0
North Florida 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.7 5.9 8.9 11.7 15.1 19.4 22.9 11.4

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Lipscomb 14 - 4 19 - 10 0.1 0.6 2.4 7.3 14.2 21.7 23.9 18.9 9.0 2.1
Austin Peay 14 - 4 18 - 9 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.4 13.5 20.7 23.4 19.9 10.4 2.6
Queens 14 - 4 18 - 12 0.1 0.4 2.1 6.1 13.1 21.5 24.1 19.7 10.3 2.6
Central Arkansas 11 - 7 14 - 15 0.0 0.4 1.8 5.1 11.9 18.0 22.3 20.0 12.7 6.0 1.6 0.2
Florida Gulf Coast 9 - 9 13 - 16 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 7.1 14.1 21.9 23.3 18.6 9.2 2.3
Eastern Kentucky 8 - 10 10 - 19 0.1 1.1 4.1 10.3 18.4 22.7 21.0 13.7 6.1 2.2 0.2
Jacksonville 8 - 10 11 - 18 0.2 1.8 6.3 13.7 20.4 22.6 18.0 11.1 4.6 1.2 0.2
Bellarmine 6 - 12 9 - 19 0.6 3.6 10.2 18.0 23.2 20.7 13.8 7.0 2.4 0.6 0.0
West Georgia 8 - 10 12 - 16 1.7 7.4 17.3 23.6 22.8 15.4 7.9 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Stetson 7 - 11 9 - 20 1.1 5.2 13.0 21.0 22.6 18.3 11.8 5.1 1.5 0.3 0.0
North Alabama 5 - 13 8 - 19 1.9 8.1 16.5 22.2 21.7 16.1 8.3 3.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
North Florida 6 - 12 6 - 23 4.8 14.8 24.0 24.2 17.5 9.4 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Lipscomb 38.7% 22.1 13.0 3.2 0.3 0.0
Austin Peay 42.2% 25.4 13.3 3.3 0.3 0.0
Queens 42.6% 25.5 13.5 3.3 0.3 0.0
Central Arkansas 5.6% 1.9 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 0.0% 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bellarmine 0.0% 0.0
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stetson
North Alabama
North Florida 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Lipscomb 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 15   0.5 3.6 10.8 9.9 1.1 74.1 0.0%
Austin Peay 23.7% 23.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.5 8.6 10.5 1.7 76.3 0.0%
Queens 20.2% 20.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 5.1 10.4 3.7 79.8 0.0%
Central Arkansas 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 3.8 6.3 89.4 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 5.6 92.3 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 5.5 94.1 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.7 97.1 0.0%
Bellarmine 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.7 98.2 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stetson 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%
North Alabama 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
North Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 92.5% 0.9 7.5 92.5
2nd Round 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Lipscomb 25.9% 0.1% 25.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 23.7% 0.2% 23.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 20.2% 0.6% 20.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 10.6% 2.9% 9.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 7.7% 3.7% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 5.9% 4.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.9% 2.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 1.8% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%