Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#179
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#166
Pace69.2#158
Improvement+1.0#146

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#246
First Shot-4.9#312
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#62
Layup/Dunks-2.5#275
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#220
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#139
Freethrows-2.7#329
Improvement+1.0#132

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#117
First Shot+0.9#149
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#88
Layups/Dunks-1.8#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#74
Freethrows-0.2#198
Improvement+0.0#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 13.3% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 95.2% 97.7% 87.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.2%
Conference Champion 16.6% 20.3% 5.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round12.5% 13.2% 10.3%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Away) - 75.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 36 - 46 - 9
Quad 411 - 317 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 4   @ Florida L 60-81 3%     0 - 1 +1.4 -0.3 +0.8
  Nov 11, 2024 165   @ Furman L 69-78 36%     0 - 2 -6.4 -6.7 +0.8
  Nov 14, 2024 229   South Carolina St. W 71-62 70%     1 - 2 +2.8 -4.1 +6.7
  Nov 20, 2024 118   @ Virginia Tech W 74-64 28%     2 - 2 +15.1 +3.4 +11.8
  Nov 25, 2024 222   Mercer L 89-90 OT 59%     2 - 3 -4.4 +5.2 -9.5
  Nov 26, 2024 246   Siena W 75-64 66%     3 - 3 +5.9 +1.5 +4.5
  Nov 30, 2024 37   @ Georgia L 56-102 8%     3 - 4 -31.5 -7.4 -24.0
  Dec 10, 2024 106   @ Florida Atlantic L 63-85 23%     3 - 5 -15.3 -13.9 +0.2
  Dec 14, 2024 153   East Tennessee St. W 60-52 53%     4 - 5 +6.2 -13.2 +19.5
  Dec 21, 2024 62   @ Central Florida L 66-86 13%     4 - 6 -8.6 -4.2 -3.8
  Jan 02, 2025 110   Lipscomb L 65-70 42%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -4.0 +1.0 -5.6
  Jan 04, 2025 296   Austin Peay W 68-44 80%     5 - 7 1 - 1 +14.1 -6.8 +21.4
  Jan 09, 2025 356   @ Bellarmine W 74-59 83%     6 - 7 2 - 1 +4.0 +3.5 +2.8
  Jan 11, 2025 231   @ Eastern Kentucky W 82-75 52%     7 - 7 3 - 1 +5.5 +4.0 +1.4
  Jan 16, 2025 155   North Alabama W 64-60 54%     8 - 7 4 - 1 +2.1 -11.4 +13.5
  Jan 18, 2025 341   Central Arkansas W 72-62 89%     9 - 7 5 - 1 -4.3 +0.4 -3.6
  Jan 23, 2025 345   @ West Georgia W 79-62 79%     10 - 7 6 - 1 +7.6 +4.7 +3.6
  Jan 25, 2025 213   @ Queens W 87-77 48%     11 - 7 7 - 1 +9.6 +7.2 +1.7
  Jan 29, 2025 164   Florida Gulf Coast L 79-83 55%     11 - 8 7 - 2 -6.3 +7.9 -14.4
  Feb 01, 2025 245   North Florida L 78-81 74%     11 - 9 7 - 3 -10.6 -9.2 -1.2
  Feb 06, 2025 334   @ Stetson W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 356   Bellarmine W 79-64 93%    
  Feb 13, 2025 341   @ Central Arkansas W 73-65 78%    
  Feb 15, 2025 155   @ North Alabama L 70-74 33%    
  Feb 18, 2025 164   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 66-70 35%    
  Feb 20, 2025 245   @ North Florida W 81-79 53%    
  Feb 24, 2025 231   Eastern Kentucky W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 26, 2025 334   Stetson W 79-66 89%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.9 9.5 3.1 16.6 1st
2nd 0.0 2.6 12.8 4.4 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.8 10.6 9.2 0.2 20.8 3rd
4th 0.5 6.5 12.7 1.7 21.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.6 8.7 2.9 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.7 3.1 1.7 0.1 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 1.8 6.6 17.8 29.0 27.5 14.1 3.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 3.1    2.3 0.8
14-4 67.4% 9.5    2.4 4.7 2.2 0.2
13-5 14.1% 3.9    0.2 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.3
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.6% 16.6 5.0 6.5 3.7 1.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 3.1% 23.5% 23.5% 13.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.4
14-4 14.1% 18.8% 18.8% 14.2 0.4 1.5 0.8 0.0 11.4
13-5 27.5% 15.0% 15.0% 14.6 0.1 1.7 2.2 0.2 23.4
12-6 29.0% 10.9% 10.9% 14.9 0.0 0.7 2.0 0.4 25.8
11-7 17.8% 8.3% 8.3% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.4 16.3
10-8 6.6% 5.6% 5.6% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 6.2
9-9 1.8% 5.1% 5.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.7
8-10 0.2% 0.0 0.2
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 14.6 0.1 1.0 4.2 6.1 1.2 87.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 13.1 16.4 58.9 23.3 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%