Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.1#34
Expected Predictive Rating+14.4#32
Pace72.8#102
Improvement-0.3#211

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#61
First Shot+5.0#54
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#147
Layup/Dunks+11.3#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#248
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#301
Freethrows-0.9#229
Improvement-1.3#282

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#15
First Shot+7.8#13
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#205
Layups/Dunks+6.3#21
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#269
Freethrows+1.5#101
Improvement+1.0#94
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 5.8% 5.9% 2.6%
Top 6 Seed 18.0% 18.4% 7.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.6% 66.2% 44.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 63.7% 64.4% 42.0%
Average Seed 7.8 7.8 8.5
.500 or above 99.5% 99.5% 97.6%
.500 or above in Conference 86.9% 87.2% 77.2%
Conference Champion 7.6% 7.7% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Four8.2% 8.2% 7.9%
First Round61.5% 62.1% 40.3%
Second Round36.5% 36.9% 23.6%
Sweet Sixteen12.1% 12.3% 5.3%
Elite Eight4.5% 4.6% 2.1%
Final Four1.5% 1.6% 0.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 97.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 24 - 19 - 9
Quad 35 - 114 - 10
Quad 49 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 275 Jacksonville W 86-69 97%     1 - 0 +7.8 +6.0 +0.9
  Thu, Nov 6 218 Bethune-Cookman W 101-61 96%     2 - 0 +33.5 +21.3 +10.9
  Mon, Nov 10 348 Stetson W 102-61 99%     3 - 0 +26.3 +10.5 +11.1
  Sun, Nov 16 15 Florida L 68-82 32%     3 - 1 +3.8 -1.3 +6.4
  Thu, Nov 20 223 Elon W 99-72 96%     4 - 1 +20.3 +13.9 +5.2
  Sun, Nov 23 355 Delaware St. W 97-41 99%     5 - 1 +39.5 +18.9 +20.2
  Thu, Nov 27 8 BYU L 62-72 27%     5 - 2 +9.3 -1.9 +11.1
  Fri, Nov 28 85 Georgetown W 78-65 74%     6 - 2 +19.3 +13.0 +7.3
  Tue, Dec 2 58 @Mississippi W 75-66 53%     7 - 2 +21.4 +10.2 +11.5
  Sat, Dec 6 219 Southern Miss W 85-65 97%    
  Sat, Dec 13 357 Louisiana Monroe W 90-60 99.8%   
  Tue, Dec 16 207 Florida International W 86-67 96%    
  Sun, Dec 21 343 North Florida W 95-68 99.5%   
  Tue, Dec 30 92 Pittsburgh W 77-66 84%    
  Wed, Jan 7 53 @Wake Forest W 77-76 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 134 Georgia Tech W 80-66 91%    
  Tue, Jan 13 56 @Notre Dame W 72-71 52%    
  Sat, Jan 17 33 @Clemson L 71-74 39%    
  Tue, Jan 20 100 Florida St. W 85-74 84%    
  Sat, Jan 24 61 @Syracuse W 74-73 53%    
  Wed, Jan 28 84 Stanford W 81-72 80%    
  Sat, Jan 31 69 California W 80-72 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 132 @Boston College W 74-66 77%    
  Tue, Feb 10 21 North Carolina W 78-77 53%    
  Sat, Feb 14 35 @North Carolina St. L 79-82 40%    
  Tue, Feb 17 70 Virginia Tech W 81-73 77%    
  Sat, Feb 21 26 @Virginia L 72-76 35%    
  Tue, Feb 24 100 @Florida St. W 82-77 68%    
  Sat, Feb 28 132 Boston College W 77-63 90%    
  Wed, Mar 4 40 @SMU L 77-79 43%    
  Sat, Mar 7 14 Louisville L 78-80 43%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.8 2.1 0.9 0.2 7.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.0 5.0 2.9 0.9 0.1 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.2 2.9 0.5 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 6.2 3.3 0.4 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.1 4.2 0.6 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.2 3.0 4.8 1.2 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.7 2.3 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.9 3.4 0.4 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 3.5 0.9 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.2 2.3 1.8 0.1 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 3.3 11th
12th 0.2 1.3 0.8 0.0 2.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.5 6.7 9.9 13.1 15.1 15.4 13.3 9.7 6.2 3.0 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-1 92.8% 0.9    0.7 0.2
16-2 69.6% 2.1    1.4 0.7 0.1
15-3 44.8% 2.8    0.9 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-4 13.9% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.6% 7.6 3.5 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 100.0% 23.1% 76.9% 3.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
16-2 3.0% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 4.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.2% 99.8% 15.1% 84.7% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.8 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-4 9.7% 98.3% 9.9% 88.4% 6.4 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.6 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.1%
13-5 13.3% 94.4% 7.6% 86.9% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.3 3.3 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.7 94.0%
12-6 15.4% 83.2% 4.6% 78.5% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.1 3.7 2.7 0.8 0.0 2.6 82.4%
11-7 15.1% 69.6% 2.9% 66.6% 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.5 2.9 3.8 1.7 0.0 4.6 68.7%
10-8 13.1% 48.5% 1.5% 47.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.6 2.3 0.1 6.7 47.7%
9-9 9.9% 26.7% 1.2% 25.4% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 0.0 7.3 25.8%
8-10 6.7% 10.1% 0.5% 9.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 6.0 9.6%
7-11 3.5% 2.1% 2.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 2.1%
6-12 1.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.4%
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 65.6% 5.2% 60.4% 7.8 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.4 5.0 7.2 9.0 9.9 10.4 11.1 7.1 0.2 34.4 63.7%