Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.4#27
Expected Predictive Rating+15.1#28
Pace71.1#102
Improvement+2.5#73

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#22
First Shot+7.3#24
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#118
Layup/Dunks+1.0#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#33
Freethrows+2.8#36
Improvement+2.8#44

Defense
Total Defense+6.1#42
First Shot+4.5#51
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#63
Layups/Dunks+0.4#152
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#198
Freethrows+4.1#3
Improvement-0.3#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 1.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 8.6% 9.7% 1.5%
Top 6 Seed 27.5% 30.3% 8.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.3% 93.9% 89.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.5% 93.1% 88.4%
Average Seed 7.4 7.3 8.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 4.2% 4.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.6% 2.3% 4.9%
First Round92.3% 93.0% 87.1%
Second Round55.7% 57.4% 43.9%
Sweet Sixteen20.0% 21.2% 11.8%
Elite Eight8.7% 9.3% 4.7%
Final Four3.1% 3.3% 1.4%
Championship Game1.0% 1.1% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston College (Away) - 87.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 5
Quad 28 - 312 - 8
Quad 36 - 119 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 282   Morehead St. W 93-45 98%     1 - 0 +38.8 +11.2 +24.7
  Nov 09, 2024 6   Tennessee L 55-77 40%     1 - 1 -4.9 -3.4 -2.4
  Nov 19, 2024 356   Bellarmine W 100-68 99%     2 - 1 +16.0 +10.6 +3.8
  Nov 22, 2024 205   Winthrop W 76-61 95%     3 - 1 +10.3 -8.9 +17.6
  Nov 27, 2024 53   Indiana W 89-61 66%     4 - 1 +38.1 +18.1 +19.2
  Nov 28, 2024 39   West Virginia W 79-70 OT 60%     5 - 1 +20.9 +11.7 +8.9
  Nov 29, 2024 34   Oklahoma L 64-69 55%     5 - 2 +8.2 +3.5 +4.2
  Dec 03, 2024 26   Mississippi L 63-86 59%     5 - 3 -10.9 -0.5 -11.3
  Dec 08, 2024 2   Duke L 65-76 28%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +9.6 +5.0 +4.1
  Dec 11, 2024 143   UTEP W 77-74 92%     6 - 4 +1.7 +5.0 -3.3
  Dec 14, 2024 22   @ Kentucky L 85-93 36%     6 - 5 +10.2 +13.2 -2.7
  Dec 21, 2024 82   @ Florida St. W 90-76 67%     7 - 5 1 - 1 +23.8 +25.7 -1.5
  Dec 28, 2024 231   Eastern Kentucky W 78-76 96%     8 - 5 -4.4 +0.0 -4.4
  Jan 01, 2025 36   North Carolina W 83-70 66%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +23.2 +9.0 +13.3
  Jan 04, 2025 97   @ Virginia W 70-50 75%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +27.4 +13.5 +17.3
  Jan 07, 2025 32   Clemson W 74-64 62%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +21.4 +10.7 +11.3
  Jan 11, 2025 47   @ Pittsburgh W 82-78 54%     12 - 5 5 - 1 +17.3 +14.4 +3.0
  Jan 14, 2025 104   @ Syracuse W 85-61 76%     13 - 5 6 - 1 +30.9 +16.5 +14.6
  Jan 18, 2025 97   Virginia W 81-67 87%     14 - 5 7 - 1 +16.4 +10.1 +6.4
  Jan 21, 2025 42   @ SMU W 98-73 51%     15 - 5 8 - 1 +39.1 +35.3 +4.9
  Jan 28, 2025 58   Wake Forest W 72-59 76%     16 - 5 9 - 1 +20.2 +9.5 +11.4
  Feb 01, 2025 99   @ Georgia Tech L 70-77 75%     16 - 6 9 - 2 +0.3 +0.6 -0.2
  Feb 05, 2025 176   @ Boston College W 82-69 87%    
  Feb 08, 2025 169   Miami (FL) W 88-71 95%    
  Feb 12, 2025 91   @ North Carolina St. W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 16, 2025 83   @ Notre Dame W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 82   Florida St. W 82-72 83%    
  Feb 25, 2025 118   @ Virginia Tech W 78-69 80%    
  Mar 01, 2025 47   Pittsburgh W 79-73 73%    
  Mar 05, 2025 116   California W 84-70 91%    
  Mar 08, 2025 78   Stanford W 80-70 83%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.3 4.2 1st
2nd 0.4 4.0 15.6 25.0 12.0 56.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.9 10.6 12.2 4.9 0.3 32.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.7 0.3 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.9 16.4 28.1 30.8 15.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 21.0% 3.3    0.6 2.1 0.6
17-3 2.9% 0.9    0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0
16-4 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 4.2% 4.2 0.7 2.7 0.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 15.6% 99.2% 15.8% 83.5% 5.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.9 3.4 3.1 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.1%
17-3 30.8% 98.0% 13.2% 84.7% 6.8 0.0 0.6 1.9 3.5 5.8 7.5 6.3 3.6 0.8 0.0 0.6 97.6%
16-4 28.1% 93.9% 9.8% 84.1% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 5.2 7.6 7.1 3.3 0.3 1.7 93.2%
15-5 16.4% 87.6% 7.6% 80.0% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.4 5.1 3.7 0.7 0.0 2.0 86.6%
14-6 6.9% 80.0% 5.7% 74.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.9 0.8 1.4 78.8%
13-7 2.0% 68.0% 3.6% 64.5% 10.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 66.8%
12-8 0.3% 53.1% 6.3% 46.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 50.0%
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 93.3% 11.0% 82.3% 7.4 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.9 7.7 11.2 16.0 18.9 18.2 10.4 2.4 0.0 6.7 92.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 100.0% 2.8 10.2 32.2 34.7 18.0 4.1 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.7% 99.2% 4.6 0.6 4.0 13.1 27.9 30.2 15.4 6.3 1.3 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.6% 99.1% 5.5 0.2 1.1 5.9 18.1 25.3 25.5 15.9 5.7 1.3