Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.9#23
Expected Predictive Rating+16.8#18
Pace71.4#86
Improvement+2.0#114

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#25
First Shot+7.0#32
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#123
Layup/Dunks+1.0#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#37
Freethrows+2.8#40
Improvement+0.4#168

Defense
Total Defense+7.9#21
First Shot+6.1#27
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#52
Layups/Dunks+1.1#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#202
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#167
Freethrows+4.2#2
Improvement+1.5#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 20.7% 24.3% 2.1%
Top 6 Seed 58.9% 65.1% 25.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.4% 99.6% 98.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.4% 99.6% 98.4%
Average Seed 5.9 5.7 7.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round99.4% 99.6% 98.4%
Second Round71.3% 73.0% 62.5%
Sweet Sixteen30.5% 32.5% 20.1%
Elite Eight10.9% 11.2% 9.2%
Final Four3.9% 4.1% 2.8%
Championship Game1.2% 1.3% 0.8%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 25 - 6
Quad 29 - 113 - 7
Quad 37 - 021 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 329   Morehead St. W 93-45 99%     1 - 0 +34.7 +9.2 +22.5
  Nov 09, 2024 6   Tennessee L 55-77 44%     1 - 1 -4.5 -4.8 -0.6
  Nov 19, 2024 340   Bellarmine W 100-68 99%     2 - 1 +17.2 +11.0 +4.6
  Nov 22, 2024 161   Winthrop W 76-61 95%     3 - 1 +12.2 -7.6 +18.2
  Nov 27, 2024 42   Indiana W 89-61 65%     4 - 1 +39.9 +20.1 +18.9
  Nov 28, 2024 43   West Virginia W 79-70 OT 66%     5 - 1 +20.8 +12.7 +7.7
  Nov 29, 2024 40   Oklahoma L 64-69 63%     5 - 2 +7.6 +3.0 +4.0
  Dec 03, 2024 29   Mississippi L 63-86 67%     5 - 3 -11.5 -1.9 -10.5
  Dec 08, 2024 1   Duke L 65-76 22%     5 - 4 0 - 1 +12.9 +4.9 +7.6
  Dec 11, 2024 159   UTEP W 77-74 95%     6 - 4 +0.4 +4.6 -4.2
  Dec 14, 2024 14   @ Kentucky L 85-93 33%     6 - 5 +12.4 +15.1 -2.4
  Dec 21, 2024 82   @ Florida St. W 90-76 73%     7 - 5 1 - 1 +23.5 +26.2 -2.2
  Dec 28, 2024 198   Eastern Kentucky W 78-76 96%     8 - 5 -2.7 +1.1 -3.8
  Jan 01, 2025 36   North Carolina W 83-70 70%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +23.6 +7.5 +15.1
  Jan 04, 2025 99   @ Virginia W 70-50 79%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +27.5 +11.8 +19.2
  Jan 07, 2025 21   Clemson W 74-64 59%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +23.7 +11.9 +12.4
  Jan 11, 2025 60   @ Pittsburgh W 82-78 64%     12 - 5 5 - 1 +16.2 +14.9 +1.3
  Jan 14, 2025 102   @ Syracuse W 85-61 80%     13 - 5 6 - 1 +31.1 +15.1 +16.2
  Jan 18, 2025 99   Virginia W 81-67 90%     14 - 5 7 - 1 +16.0 +8.1 +7.9
  Jan 21, 2025 49   @ SMU W 98-73 58%     15 - 5 8 - 1 +38.8 +33.9 +6.0
  Jan 28, 2025 61   Wake Forest W 72-59 81%     16 - 5 9 - 1 +19.5 +8.4 +11.9
  Feb 01, 2025 95   @ Georgia Tech L 70-77 78%     16 - 6 9 - 2 +0.9 +1.4 -0.3
  Feb 05, 2025 168   @ Boston College W 84-58 89%     17 - 6 10 - 2 +28.3 +10.6 +17.0
  Feb 08, 2025 174   Miami (FL) W 88-78 95%     18 - 6 11 - 2 +6.4 +7.8 -1.5
  Feb 12, 2025 106   @ North Carolina St. W 91-66 81%     19 - 6 12 - 2 +31.6 +24.2 +7.9
  Feb 16, 2025 93   @ Notre Dame W 75-60 77%     20 - 6 13 - 2 +23.3 +11.8 +12.8
  Feb 22, 2025 82   Florida St. W 89-81 87%     21 - 6 14 - 2 +12.0 +16.3 -4.6
  Feb 25, 2025 134   @ Virginia Tech W 71-66 86%     22 - 6 15 - 2 +9.2 -1.8 +10.9
  Mar 01, 2025 60   Pittsburgh W 79-68 81%     23 - 6 16 - 2 +17.7 +9.0 +8.7
  Mar 05, 2025 105   California W 85-68 91%     24 - 6 17 - 2 +18.2 +10.2 +7.7
  Mar 08, 2025 84   Stanford W 68-48 87%     25 - 6 18 - 2 +23.9 +6.0 +20.3
Projected Record 25 - 6 18 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0%
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 99.4% 8.2% 91.3% 5.9 0.0 0.6 6.2 13.9 18.4 19.7 24.6 13.2 2.6 0.2 0.6 99.4%
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.4% 8.2% 91.3% 5.9 0.0 0.6 6.2 13.9 18.4 19.7 24.6 13.2 2.6 0.2 0.6 99.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.2% 100.0% 3.8 0.2 5.9 36.2 35.8 16.7 4.5 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 37.1% 99.9% 5.1 0.0 0.4 7.9 24.9 30.5 22.6 11.5 1.7 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 38.8% 99.3% 6.7 0.7 3.7 11.8 21.4 37.1 20.8 3.6 0.3
Lose Out 16.0% 98.4% 7.1 0.3 1.8 7.3 16.6 36.7 28.1 7.1 0.6