IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+13.3	#36
Expected Predictive Rating	+12.8	#44

Pace	75.4	#27
Improvement	-1.1	#240

Offense
Total Offense	+8.8	#20

First Shot	+8.3	#20
After Offensive Rebound	+0.5	#146

Layup/Dunks	+6.6	#15
2 Pt Jumpshots	-2.3	#308
3 Pt Jumpshots	+0.7	#155
Freethrows	+3.3	#26

Improvement	+0.7	#158

Defense
Total Defense	+4.5	#64

First Shot	+3.3	#72
After Offensive Rebounds	+1.1	#87

Layups/Dunks	+4.7	#40
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.6	#146
3 Pt Jumpshots	-2.7	#291
Freethrows	+0.7	#132

Improvement	-1.8	#272

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	40.4%	45.4%	22.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	39.0%	43.8%	22.7%
Average Seed	10.9	10.9	11.2

.500 or above	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
.500 or above in Conference	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	33.0%	36.2%	21.9%
First Round	25.7%	29.3%	13.3%
Second Round	10.2%	11.8%	4.9%
Sweet Sixteen	3.5%	4.0%	1.6%
Elite Eight	1.0%	1.1%	0.5%
Final Four	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 9	1 - 9
Quad 1b	0 - 2	1 - 11
Quad 2	7 - 1	8 - 12
Quad 3	7 - 1	15 - 13
Quad 4	6 - 0	21 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf	Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	206	Elon	W	90-76	95%	1 - 0		+8.7	+7.6	+0.3
Nov 08, 2024	18	@ Kansas	L	89-92	27%	1 - 1		+16.6	+19.3	-2.4
Nov 15, 2024	249	American	W	107-55	96%	2 - 1		+44.4	+25.4	+16.1
Nov 22, 2024	221	@ Hawaii	W	87-69	90%	3 - 1		+17.4	+17.0	+0.9
Nov 25, 2024	74	Dayton	W	92-90	71%	4 - 1		+9.5	+11.7	-2.4
Nov 26, 2024	2	Auburn	L	72-85	15%	4 - 2		+11.2	+4.2	+7.7
Nov 27, 2024	8	Michigan St.	L	91-94 OT	28%	4 - 3		+16.5	+18.6	-1.7
Dec 04, 2024	5	Alabama	L	79-94	32%	4 - 4		+3.3	-0.9	+6.6
Dec 07, 2024	95	Georgia Tech	W	68-65	85%	5 - 4	1 - 0	+5.4	-7.3	+12.5
Dec 14, 2024	225	La Salle	W	93-67	95%	6 - 4		+19.8	+10.0	+7.6
Dec 17, 2024	3	Florida	L	84-90	17%	6 - 5		+17.5	+12.0	+6.1
Dec 21, 2024	24	UCLA	W	76-74	41%	7 - 5		+17.6	+9.6	+7.9
Dec 29, 2024	220	Campbell	W	97-81	95%	8 - 5		+10.0	+21.9	-12.1
Jan 01, 2025	23	@ Louisville	L	70-83	30%	8 - 6	1 - 1	+5.7	+1.6	+5.0
Jan 04, 2025	93	@ Notre Dame	W	74-73	68%	9 - 6	2 - 1	+9.3	+7.2	+2.1
Jan 07, 2025	49	SMU	W	82-67	69%	10 - 6	3 - 1	+23.3	+5.4	+16.9
Jan 11, 2025	106	@ North Carolina St.	W	63-61	74%	11 - 6	4 - 1	+8.6	+1.1	+7.7
Jan 15, 2025	105	California	W	79-53	87%	12 - 6	5 - 1	+27.2	+3.9	+22.7
Jan 18, 2025	84	Stanford	L	71-72	81%	12 - 7	5 - 2	+2.9	+4.5	-1.6
Jan 21, 2025	61	@ Wake Forest	L	66-67	55%	12 - 8	5 - 3	+11.0	-1.3	+12.4
Jan 25, 2025	168	Boston College	W	102-96 OT	93%	13 - 8	6 - 3	+2.7	+20.9	-18.6
Jan 28, 2025	60	@ Pittsburgh	L	65-73	54%	13 - 9	6 - 4	+4.2	+1.2	+2.5
Feb 01, 2025	1	@ Duke	L	70-87	7%	13 - 10	6 - 5	+12.4	+15.7	-4.7
Feb 08, 2025	60	Pittsburgh	W	67-66	74%	14 - 10	7 - 5	+7.7	+4.0	+3.8
Feb 10, 2025	21	@ Clemson	L	65-85	29%	14 - 11	7 - 6	-0.8	+1.2	-2.0
Feb 15, 2025	102	@ Syracuse	W	88-82	73%	15 - 11	8 - 6	+13.1	+17.6	-4.5
Feb 19, 2025	106	North Carolina St.	W	97-73	87%	16 - 11	9 - 6	+25.1	+26.3	-1.1
Feb 22, 2025	99	Virginia	W	81-66	85%	17 - 11	10 - 6	+17.0	+13.8	+4.2
Feb 24, 2025	82	@ Florida St.	W	96-85	65%	18 - 11	11 - 6	+20.5	+33.5	-12.5
Mar 01, 2025	174	Miami (FL)	W	92-73	93%	19 - 11	12 - 6	+15.4	+12.9	+2.6
Mar 04, 2025	134	@ Virginia Tech	W	91-59	80%	20 - 11	13 - 6	+36.2	+24.2	+13.3
Mar 08, 2025	1	Duke	L	69-82	16%	20 - 12	13 - 7	+10.9	+8.6	+1.8

Mar 12, 2025	93	Notre Dame	W	80-72	77%
Projected Record						21 - 12	13 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st																							1st
2nd																							2nd
3rd																							3rd
4th														100.0								100.0	4th
5th																							5th
6th																							6th
7th																							7th
8th																							8th
9th																							9th
10th																							10th
11th																							11th
12th																							12th
13th																							13th
14th																							14th
15th																							15th
16th																						16th
17th																						17th
18th																						18th

Total														100.0								Total

Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7	0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10

Total

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7	100.0%	40.4%	2.2%	38.2%	10.9						0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	4.5	28.8	5.2					59.6	39.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	40.4%	2.2%	38.2%	10.9						0.0	0.1	0.5	1.2	4.5	28.8	5.2					59.6	39.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Win Out	2.2%	100.0%	9.1	1.4	5.0	20.6	36.7	29.4	6.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	3.1%	77.0%	10.5				5.8	30.4	39.6	1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	45.7%	48.8%	11.0			0.1	0.5	5.0	37.5	5.8
Lose Out	22.2%	22.7%	11.2					0.8	16.9	5.0