North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.1#22
Expected Predictive Rating+10.3#57
Pace80.7#6
Improvement-1.2#262

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#15
First Shot+7.7#21
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#149
Layup/Dunks+6.6#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#153
Freethrows+2.9#44
Improvement-3.4#354

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#34
First Shot+6.2#23
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#218
Layups/Dunks+6.8#18
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#128
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#300
Freethrows+1.8#66
Improvement+2.2#35
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.6% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 2.8% 4.6% 1.4%
Top 4 Seed 12.6% 18.6% 7.5%
Top 6 Seed 28.1% 38.5% 19.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.1% 83.2% 62.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.1% 80.4% 58.1%
Average Seed 7.1 6.7 7.7
.500 or above 94.5% 97.6% 91.8%
.500 or above in Conference 94.5% 95.9% 93.3%
Conference Champion 9.9% 11.9% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four6.3% 4.9% 7.6%
First Round69.4% 81.1% 59.6%
Second Round46.0% 55.8% 37.7%
Sweet Sixteen20.4% 26.1% 15.6%
Elite Eight9.1% 11.8% 6.9%
Final Four3.9% 5.2% 2.8%
Championship Game1.6% 2.2% 1.1%
National Champion0.6% 0.8% 0.4%

Next Game: UCLA (Neutral) - 45.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 10
Quad 26 - 210 - 12
Quad 37 - 117 - 13
Quad 44 - 021 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 178   Elon W 90-76 94%     1 - 0 +10.0 +9.4 -0.3
  Nov 08, 2024 10   @ Kansas L 89-92 28%     1 - 1 +17.2 +18.2 -0.7
  Nov 15, 2024 241   American W 107-55 97%     2 - 1 +44.5 +23.9 +17.7
  Nov 22, 2024 173   @ Hawaii W 87-69 87%     3 - 1 +20.2 +18.1 +2.5
  Nov 25, 2024 41   Dayton W 92-90 62%     4 - 1 +12.9 +13.1 -0.4
  Nov 26, 2024 1   Auburn L 72-85 21%     4 - 2 +9.7 +2.6 +7.8
  Nov 27, 2024 15   Michigan St. L 91-94 OT 46%     4 - 3 +12.2 +15.0 -2.4
  Dec 04, 2024 8   Alabama L 79-94 49%     4 - 4 -0.6 -2.8 +4.6
  Dec 07, 2024 111   Georgia Tech W 68-65 89%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +3.5 -9.2 +12.5
  Dec 14, 2024 165   La Salle W 93-67 94%     6 - 4 +22.6 +10.9 +9.4
  Dec 17, 2024 7   Florida L 84-90 35%     6 - 5 +12.1 +9.0 +3.7
  Dec 21, 2024 14   UCLA L 73-74 46%    
  Dec 29, 2024 300   Campbell W 88-64 99%    
  Jan 01, 2025 51   @ Louisville W 82-81 54%    
  Jan 04, 2025 82   @ Notre Dame W 78-74 66%    
  Jan 07, 2025 48   SMU W 87-80 73%    
  Jan 11, 2025 80   @ North Carolina St. W 79-75 65%    
  Jan 15, 2025 118   California W 91-77 91%    
  Jan 18, 2025 94   Stanford W 87-76 85%    
  Jan 21, 2025 86   @ Wake Forest W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 25, 2025 154   Boston College W 87-70 94%    
  Jan 28, 2025 31   @ Pittsburgh L 79-80 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 2   @ Duke L 72-82 18%    
  Feb 08, 2025 31   Pittsburgh W 82-77 66%    
  Feb 10, 2025 34   @ Clemson L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 95   @ Syracuse W 87-82 69%    
  Feb 19, 2025 80   North Carolina St. W 82-72 82%    
  Feb 22, 2025 91   Virginia W 72-61 84%    
  Feb 24, 2025 64   @ Florida St. W 83-81 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 93   Miami (FL) W 88-77 84%    
  Mar 04, 2025 125   @ Virginia Tech W 81-72 79%    
  Mar 08, 2025 2   Duke L 75-79 36%    
Projected Record 20 - 12 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.4 2.5 1.1 0.2 9.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.2 7.2 7.7 3.5 0.5 22.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.4 7.0 5.7 1.7 0.1 18.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 6.2 4.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.3 3.9 0.9 0.1 10.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.0 1.4 0.1 5.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.8 1.6 0.2 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 3.0 5.4 8.6 12.1 15.2 15.8 14.6 11.5 7.1 3.1 1.1 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.1    1.0 0.1
18-2 82.4% 2.5    1.7 0.8 0.0
17-3 48.2% 3.4    1.7 1.5 0.2 0.0
16-4 17.7% 2.0    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
15-5 4.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.9% 9.9 5.2 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.1% 100.0% 32.6% 67.4% 2.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.1% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 3.0 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.1% 99.8% 25.0% 74.8% 4.2 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
16-4 11.5% 99.0% 20.4% 78.6% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 2.7 2.6 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
15-5 14.6% 96.5% 17.1% 79.4% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 2.8 3.4 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.5 95.8%
14-6 15.8% 89.3% 12.3% 77.1% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 3.5 2.9 1.9 0.8 0.0 1.7 87.8%
13-7 15.2% 75.0% 8.9% 66.1% 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 2.7 2.7 1.7 0.1 3.8 72.5%
12-8 12.1% 53.1% 5.8% 47.3% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 1.9 0.2 5.7 50.2%
11-9 8.6% 29.9% 4.3% 25.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.2 6.1 26.8%
10-10 5.4% 12.1% 2.7% 9.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.7 9.7%
9-11 3.0% 3.3% 1.6% 1.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9 1.7%
8-12 1.5% 1.9% 1.5% 0.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.4%
7-13 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 72.1% 12.5% 59.5% 7.1 1.0 1.9 3.9 5.8 7.2 8.4 9.9 10.3 9.0 8.1 6.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 27.9 68.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 81.8 18.2