North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.4 26
Expected Predictive Rating +17.6 22
Pace 70.8 117
Improvement -3.0 303

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- #21 B+ B+ A B- C+
Defense B #42 A- A- D A A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 132 65% 41 +4.1 49
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 224 42% 61 -0.2 190
Three Pointers 42% 167 37% 45 +2.5 100
1st FG Attempt 1.15 31 +6.4 32
Second Chance 34.5% 72 1.14 52 0.39 45
Turnovers 12.7% 9
Freethrows 0.35 48 69% 276 0.24 103
Total Offense +9.6 21

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 328 49% 14 +6.7 18
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 11 32% 17 -1.6 307
Three Pointers 39% 251 34% 168 +1.4 125
1st FG Attempt 0.89 22 +6.4 22
Second Chance 25.2% 25 0.88 24 0.22 16
Turnovers 14.6% 315
Freethrows 0.20 4 70% 72 0.14 3
Total Defense +5.8 42

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.4 127 -1.6 13
Shot Type Accuracy +5.8 32 -4.9 35
Possession Length 15.3 28 19.2 362
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 72 0.09 11
Improvement +0.5 #147 -3.4 #332

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 8% 9% 3%
Top 6 Seed 47% 49% 28%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99% 99% 97%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99% 99% 97%
Average Seed 6.6 6.5 7.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 98% 99% 88%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 0% 2%
First Round98% 99% 96%
Second Round65% 66% 56%
Sweet Sixteen22% 22% 14%
Elite Eight7% 8% 5%
Final Four2% 3% 1%
Championship Game1% 1% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Home) - 89.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 37 - 8
Quad 24 - 111 - 9
Quad 38 - 019 - 9
Quad 45 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 190 Central Arkansas W 94 - 54 96% +24  98% 1 - 0 A+ +35 A- +9 B A+ A- A+ +23 A+ C A+
 Fri, Nov 7 12 Kansas W 87 - 74 48% +2  42% 2 - 0 A+ +29 A+ +20 A+ D+ C- A- +9 B- B+ A
 Tue, Nov 11 233 Radford W 89 - 74 97% +11  85% 3 - 0 B- +8 D+ -4 D- C A A- +9 A+ A- F+
 Fri, Nov 14 339 NC Central W 97 - 53 99% +20  99% 4 - 0 A+ +29 A +14 B- A+ A A+ +16 A+ A F
 Tue, Nov 18 166 Navy W 73 - 61 95% +10  99% 5 - 0 B +9 C- -2 B D- D+ A +10 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 134 St. Bonaventure W 85 - 70 89% +8  89% 6 - 0 A- +17 B +7 B+ A C- A +10 A B+ F
 Thu, Nov 27 10 Michigan St. L 58 - 74 33% -4  21% 6 - 1 C+ +4 C+ +3 C C+ A C- -2 C- B C-
 Tue, Dec 2 24 @Kentucky W 67 - 64 35% -2  21% 7 - 1 A +22 B +7 D+ A+ D+ A+ +15 A A+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 76 Georgetown W 81 - 61 85% +7  83% 8 - 1 A+ +25 B +6 A D+ A A+ +18 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 297 South Carolina Upstate W 80 - 62 98% +8  86% 9 - 1 B- +7 B+ +9 B C+ A+ C +0 B- C- F
 Tue, Dec 16 126 East Tennessee St. W 77 - 58 93% +10  78% 10 - 1 A +18 A +12 B+ A A+ A- +9 A+ B- F+
 Sat, Dec 20 39 Ohio St. W 71 - 70 56% +4  80% 11 - 1 A- +15 B- +5 B- B A+ A- +10 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 252 East Carolina W 99 - 51 97% +24  96% 12 - 1 A+ +40 A +13 A+ B B- A+ +23 A+ A+ A
 Tue, Dec 30 93 Florida St. W 79 - 66 88% +7  86% 13 - 1 1 - 0 A- +15 B +6 C B A+ A +10 A+ B- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 37 @SMU L 83 - 97 43% -5  10% 13 - 2 1 - 1 C+ +3 A +13 A+ D- A F+ -11 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 63 Wake Forest W 87 - 84 82% +8  97% 14 - 2 2 - 1 B +8 A +12 A A+ C+ D+ -4 D- B- B+
 Wed, Jan 14 74 @Stanford L 90 - 95 68% +5  95% 14 - 3 2 - 2 B- +6 A+ +16 A+ A A F+ -10 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 73 @California L 78 - 84 67% -11  0% 14 - 4 2 - 3 C+ +5 B +7 A- C+ C+ C- -3 C+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 21 82 Notre Dame W 91 - 69 86% +14  97% 15 - 4 3 - 3 A+ +26 A+ +18 A+ A+ A- B+ +8 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 23 @Virginia W 85 - 80 35% -4  18% 16 - 4 4 - 3 A+ +24 A+ +22 A+ D+ A+ B- +3 A- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 131 @Georgia Tech W 91 - 75 84% +12  96% 17 - 4 5 - 3 A +21 A+ +17 C+ A A+ B- +4 B C C-
 Mon, Feb 2 67 Syracuse W 87 - 77 83% +14  95% 18 - 4 6 - 3 A- +15 A- +11 A+ C A B +4 C+ A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 7 3 Duke W 71 - 68 31% -6  0% 19 - 4 7 - 3 A+ +24 A +13 A D+ A+ A +11 A+ D+ D-
 Tue, Feb 10 41 @Miami (FL) L 66 - 75 48% -4  0% 19 - 5 7 - 4 B- +7 C- -1 C- C- A- A- +8 A- A+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 99 Pittsburgh W 80 - 67 89%
 Tue, Feb 17 27 @North Carolina St. L 80 - 83 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 67 @Syracuse W 80 - 76 65%
 Mon, Feb 23 11 Louisville L 82 - 83 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 55 Virginia Tech W 81 - 73 78%
 Tue, Mar 3 38 Clemson W 73 - 69 66%
 Sat, Mar 7 3 @Duke L 70 - 81 14%
Totals 23 - 8 11 - 7 +15 A- +10 B+ B+ A B +6 A- A- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B+ B- B B+ 40% 18% 42% C+ B+ B- B B+ A B D+ B- B A- A- C B+ 32% 29% 39% A A- B+ B+ A- D A B- A
1.22 65% 42% 37% +6 0 1.15 34% 1.1 .39 13% .35 69% .24 1.00 49% 32% 34% -5 -2 0.89 25% 0.9 .22 15% .20 70% .25
Nov
3		 Central Arkansas A- A+ F C- B 48% 12% 40% B+ B A A+ A+ A- A- A+ A A+ A+ A+ B A+ 24% 29% 47% A+ A+ B F+ C A+ A+ C+ A
1.25 80% 0% 33% +6 +2 1.17 38% 1.5 .56 16% .35 82% .28 0.72 38% 13% 31% -14 -2 0.69 23% 1.2 .28 23% .15 67% .10
Nov
7		 Kansas A+ A+ A+ B A+ 42% 16% 42% A- A+ A+ F D+ C- A- C- B+ A- C A- F C- 22% 34% 44% A+ B- A+ F B+ A B+ A+ A
1.23 74% 67% 35% +12 +1 1.27 44% 0.4 .17 16% .29 65% .18 1.05 64% 29% 45% +6 -3 1.08 23% 1.4 .33 20% .27 67% .18
Nov
11		 Radford D+ B- F C- D- 37% 17% 46% C- D- B D- C A A+ F A+ A- B- A A+ A+ 28% 25% 47% A A+ C+ A+ A- F+ F A+ C-
1.09 63% 11% 33% -3 0 0.96 38% 0.9 .36 13% .70 63% .44 0.91 53% 27% 25% -10 -1 0.78 27% 0.7 .20 13% .44 61% .27
Nov
14		 NC Central A A B- C+ B- 33% 15% 52% C B- B A+ A+ A A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ 31% 28% 41% A- A+ C+ A+ A F C B+ C+
1.38 75% 43% 36% +8 0 1.19 43% 1.5 .64 14% .58 74% .43 0.76 24% 20% 32% -17 -1 0.65 26% 0.5 .13 13% .33 70% .23
Nov
18		 Navy C- F A+ A+ C 53% 6% 40% A+ B D+ F D- D+ A+ B- A+ A A+ A+ C A+ 42% 28% 30% C+ A+ B A+ A+ F A F B
1.04 44% 67% 42% -1 +3 1.06 26% 0.8 .21 19% .39 77% .30 0.87 40% 18% 33% -14 -1 0.73 27% 0.6 .16 9% .25 81% .20
Nov
25		 St. Bonaventure B C+ D A+ B+ 43% 20% 37% C+ B+ B- A A C- A+ C A+ A A+ B+ F A 43% 28% 28% C+ A A C- B+ F A+ A+ A+
1.19 60% 33% 47% +7 0 1.17 33% 1.3 .43 18% .46 78% .36 0.98 42% 35% 41% -4 -1 0.92 27% 1.0 .27 13% .13 63% .08
Nov
27		 Michigan St. C+ A F F D+ 43% 11% 46% A+ C A+ F C+ A A- C- B+ C- A+ F F D+ 45% 37% 18% B+ C- C+ B B C- A+ D+ A+
0.96 65% 20% 19% -9 +2 0.87 32% 0.5 .16 13% .32 71% .23 1.22 48% 53% 56% +7 -2 1.12 40% 1.0 .40 16% .18 78% .14
Dec
2		 Kentucky B D A- F D+ 31% 36% 33% D- D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ C F D A+ F B+ A+ A+ 45% 28% 28% B A A A+ A+ C D- D F+
1.05 50% 44% 20% -7 -2 0.82 48% 1.1 .52 19% .29 60% .17 1.00 76% 31% 8% -5 0 0.91 28% 0.6 .17 14% .40 77% .31
Dec
7		 Georgetown B B- A+ C A+ 22% 28% 50% D A F+ A- D+ A B+ F+ B- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 37% 32% 31% A- A+ A+ A A+ F A+ C+ A+
1.14 58% 67% 33% +8 -2 1.13 22% 1.1 .25 13% .34 67% .22 0.86 48% 20% 21% -15 -2 0.68 22% 0.9 .20 6% .18 75% .13
Dec
13		 South Carolina Upstate B+ C- D+ A+ B 46% 12% 42% B B F+ A+ C+ A+ A- F B- C A- B D C 19% 39% 42% A+ B- C+ D C- F A+ B- A+
1.25 57% 33% 43% +4 +2 1.14 23% 1.6 .37 9% .38 64% .24 0.97 45% 32% 38% -3 -4 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 11% .05 67% .04
Dec
16		 East Tennessee St. A A+ D+ C- B 39% 7% 55% B B+ C A+ A A+ A+ F A A- B A+ B+ A+ 28% 26% 46% A+ A+ A+ F B- F+ B- A B+
1.27 76% 33% 33% +6 +2 1.18 29% 1.4 .42 12% .43 65% .28 0.95 54% 25% 29% -8 -1 0.83 18% 1.5 .26 12% .30 69% .20
Dec
20		 Ohio St. B- C+ C- D+ C 36% 15% 49% A B- C+ A- B A+ D- F F A- A+ F A A 24% 45% 31% A+ A+ B- A+ A+ F B F+ C+
1.10 58% 38% 31% -2 +1 0.98 32% 1.2 .37 11% .23 54% .12 1.08 50% 55% 27% +2 -4 0.98 33% 0.5 .18 9% .32 84% .27
Dec
22		 East Carolina A B- A+ A+ A+ 41% 16% 43% B A+ A D+ B B- A+ F A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 39% 33% 28% B+ A+ D- A+ A+ A B+ A- A-
1.30 62% 50% 50% +14 +1 1.31 41% 1.1 .43 16% .47 63% .30 0.67 45% 16% 13% -21 -2 0.56 38% 0.4 .15 22% .29 65% .19
Dec
30		 Florida St. B B+ C F C- 37% 15% 48% B C A- C- B A+ B D+ B- A A+ D- A- A+ 26% 13% 61% B+ A+ B+ D B- C- A- A+ A+
1.14 65% 38% 27% -3 +1 0.98 39% 0.9 .37 11% .32 70% .23 0.95 36% 43% 27% -11 0 0.80 28% 1.3 .35 13% .23 57% .13
Jan
3		 SMU A B+ B- A+ A+ 29% 20% 51% C+ A+ C- F D- A B+ C- B F+ F F F F 35% 16% 49% D F A+ C+ A+ F B A B+
1.20 67% 40% 46% +12 -1 1.25 28% 0.7 .19 14% .32 68% .22 1.40 79% 56% 52% +23 0 1.49 22% 1.0 .22 10% .26 69% .18
Jan
10		 Wake Forest A A+ F C- A 40% 11% 49% B A A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F A+ D+ D+ F D- F+ 29% 15% 56% C+ D- C+ B B- B+ A+ B A+
1.22 78% 20% 32% +4 +1 1.13 43% 1.6 .70 20% .52 67% .35 1.18 63% 63% 39% +9 0 1.20 31% 1.1 .34 18% .19 73% .14
Jan
14		 Stanford A+ B A+ C A+ 42% 28% 30% C A+ C+ A+ A A A+ F A F+ C F F F 38% 11% 51% B- F A+ A+ A+ F C- A C+
1.23 62% 64% 33% +9 -1 1.18 28% 1.6 .45 15% .52 63% .32 1.30 57% 67% 57% +21 +1 1.45 7% 0.0 .00 11% .35 65% .23
Jan
17		 California B A+ F+ C+ A 31% 20% 49% D+ A- C B- C+ C+ A+ D A+ C- A+ C+ F C 25% 31% 43% A C+ B- F F A- B+ B- A-
1.11 73% 30% 33% +3 -1 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 16% .47 61% .29 1.19 46% 38% 45% +4 -2 1.06 25% 2.3 .56 18% .28 75% .21
Jan
21		 Notre Dame A+ A- A+ A- A+ 34% 8% 58% A A+ A- A+ A+ A- A D A- B+ A+ B- C+ A+ 22% 37% 41% A+ A+ C- A B+ F A+ A+ A+
1.32 67% 50% 39% +8 +1 1.21 32% 1.7 .55 12% .38 70% .26 1.00 38% 36% 33% -5 -3 0.85 35% 0.7 .25 7% .20 54% .11
Jan
24		 Virginia A+ B+ B A+ A+ 27% 35% 38% D- A+ D C D+ A+ B+ D B- B- F+ A+ A A- 37% 20% 43% B+ A- D B- C- C+ D C+ D+
1.25 60% 42% 48% +10 -3 1.16 22% 0.9 .19 6% .34 68% .23 1.18 68% 30% 27% -2 0 0.98 44% 1.1 .47 16% .35 70% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Georgia Tech A+ A D+ F C+ 37% 23% 40% C+ C+ B- A+ A A+ F A+ D- B- B+ B+ F B- 44% 40% 16% A B A- F C C- C+ F D+
1.27 67% 33% 27% -2 0 0.97 33% 1.4 .47 3% .17 92% .16 1.04 50% 30% 63% 0 -2 0.98 26% 1.3 .35 17% .28 82% .23
Feb
2		 Syracuse A- B D A+ A+ 38% 30% 32% D- A+ B+ F+ C A A+ C- A+ B F D- C D+ 28% 41% 31% A+ C+ B+ A+ A+ D+ B D+ B-
1.20 61% 29% 53% +8 -1 1.15 38% 0.9 .34 15% .57 71% .41 1.06 73% 45% 35% +8 -3 1.11 28% 0.5 .15 14% .30 68% .21
Feb
7		 Duke A B A+ A A+ 23% 43% 34% F A F A+ D+ A+ B A B+ A A A+ B A+ 49% 21% 30% A- A+ A F D+ D- A+ F A+
1.11 58% 48% 39% +7 -4 1.08 13% 1.0 .13 11% .25 79% .19 1.07 50% 27% 31% -7 +1 0.89 31% 1.7 .53 13% .11 83% .09
Feb
10		 Miami (FL) C- C D- D+ D+ 32% 25% 44% C C- C D+ C- A- F A+ D A- D- A- B+ B 44% 37% 19% A+ A- A- A+ A+ F D+ A C+
0.95 56% 29% 32% -4 -1 0.91 24% 1.0 .24 16% .17 80% .14 1.08 70% 32% 30% +2 -2 1.02 32% 0.8 .24 12% .37 61% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 1.4 0.7 2.1 2nd
3rd 1.4 5.2 0.3 6.9 3rd
4th 0.2 8.3 2.6 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 4.1 10.3 0.2 14.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 14.5 3.5 19.8 6th
7th 0.8 10.6 11.2 0.2 22.8 7th
8th 0.1 4.7 8.9 1.2 14.9 8th
9th 0.9 3.8 0.9 5.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 2.2 9.9 22.2 31.3 23.8 9.4 1.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 7.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.2% 100.0% 11.3% 88.7% 3.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.4% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 4.7 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.7 3.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 23.8% 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 5.7 0.1 0.4 2.0 6.6 9.3 4.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 31.3% 99.4% 5.0% 94.4% 6.6 0.0 0.4 4.0 9.4 11.0 5.0 1.1 0.1 0.2 99.4%
10-8 22.2% 98.7% 2.8% 95.9% 7.5 0.1 0.6 3.2 6.8 7.2 3.6 0.5 0.0 0.3 98.7%
9-9 9.9% 95.6% 2.3% 93.2% 8.4 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.1 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.4 95.4%
8-10 2.2% 79.5% 1.8% 77.7% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.5 79.1%
7-11 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.6% 5.3% 93.3% 6.6 1.4 98.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 3.2 7.7 11.5 38.5 34.6 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 3.8 3.0 3.0 21.2 51.5 21.2