Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.8#341
Expected Predictive Rating-14.5#349
Pace67.3#210
Improvement+0.1#179

Offense
Total Offense-6.5#337
First Shot-4.5#304
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#294
Layup/Dunks-6.0#347
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#62
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#126
Freethrows-2.0#299
Improvement+1.8#86

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#325
First Shot-5.9#340
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#120
Layups/Dunks+3.6#56
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#74
3 Pt Jumpshots-12.3#363
Freethrows+1.3#92
Improvement-1.7#277
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.1% 7.2% 23.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Home) - 29.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 60 - 13
Quad 46 - 106 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 33   @ BYU L 50-88 1%     0 - 1 -21.8 -15.9 -6.6
  Nov 07, 2024 84   @ Utah L 63-98 3%     0 - 2 -25.4 -10.7 -11.4
  Nov 16, 2024 354   @ Western Illinois L 61-63 46%     0 - 3 -12.8 -8.6 -4.6
  Nov 21, 2024 265   Southeast Missouri St. L 73-77 OT 37%     0 - 4 -12.3 -10.9 -1.0
  Nov 24, 2024 172   UNC Asheville W 92-83 2OT 20%     1 - 4 +6.1 +1.5 +3.3
  Nov 30, 2024 99   @ Georgia Tech L 68-87 5%     1 - 5 -11.7 +5.9 -19.1
  Dec 04, 2024 227   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 57-63 16%     1 - 6 -7.1 -14.6 +7.8
  Dec 07, 2024 363   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 78-84 67%     1 - 7 -22.3 -6.0 -16.3
  Dec 14, 2024 43   @ Arkansas L 57-82 2%     1 - 8 -10.9 -3.1 -9.7
  Dec 16, 2024 358   The Citadel W 73-71 68%     2 - 8 -14.6 -7.9 -6.7
  Dec 22, 2024 34   @ Oklahoma L 66-89 1%     2 - 9 -7.3 -3.4 -3.0
  Jan 02, 2025 231   Eastern Kentucky L 83-89 2OT 30%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -12.4 -10.3 -1.1
  Jan 04, 2025 356   Bellarmine W 71-65 66%     3 - 10 1 - 1 -10.0 -10.3 +0.5
  Jan 09, 2025 334   @ Stetson L 65-75 38%     3 - 11 1 - 2 -18.7 -5.8 -14.2
  Jan 11, 2025 164   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 71-77 10%     3 - 12 1 - 3 -3.4 +0.3 -3.8
  Jan 16, 2025 245   @ North Florida L 80-92 19%     3 - 13 1 - 4 -14.6 +0.7 -15.3
  Jan 18, 2025 179   @ Jacksonville L 62-72 11%     3 - 14 1 - 5 -8.4 -0.9 -8.6
  Jan 23, 2025 296   Austin Peay L 71-73 43%     3 - 15 1 - 6 -11.9 -3.5 -8.5
  Jan 25, 2025 110   Lipscomb L 55-68 12%     3 - 16 1 - 7 -12.0 -12.8 -0.3
  Jan 29, 2025 345   West Georgia W 75-70 60%     4 - 16 2 - 7 -9.3 -2.5 -6.7
  Feb 01, 2025 155   @ North Alabama L 65-94 9%     4 - 17 2 - 8 -25.9 -1.5 -27.3
  Feb 05, 2025 213   Queens L 72-78 29%    
  Feb 08, 2025 296   @ Austin Peay L 64-71 24%    
  Feb 13, 2025 179   Jacksonville L 65-73 22%    
  Feb 15, 2025 245   North Florida L 79-83 37%    
  Feb 18, 2025 213   @ Queens L 69-80 14%    
  Feb 20, 2025 345   @ West Georgia L 70-72 39%    
  Feb 24, 2025 155   North Alabama L 68-78 18%    
  Feb 26, 2025 110   @ Lipscomb L 62-80 5%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 3.4 0.9 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 5.5 15.9 14.9 3.7 0.2 40.2 10th
11th 8.9 21.0 12.7 2.2 0.1 45.0 11th
12th 4.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 6.4 12th
Total 13.0 28.7 28.9 19.1 7.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.3% 0.3
7-11 2.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.2
6-12 7.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.9
5-13 19.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.0
4-14 28.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 28.9
3-15 28.7% 28.7
2-16 13.0% 13.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 13.0%