Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.2 #236
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 #242
Pace 68.1 #209
Improvement +2.6 #61

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #235 C D+ C F C+
Defense #231 C- D+ C+ B D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #294 1.20 #128 -1.6 #245
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #285 0.56 #359 -3.5 #335
Three Pointers 50% #31 1.01 #193 +4.3 #49
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #202 -0.8 #207
Freethrows 14.5 #318 67% #334 9.7 #330
Second Chance 27.6% #268 1.03 #192 0.28 #249
Turnovers 16.2% #157
Total Offense -2.4 #235

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #327 1.26 #307 +1.9 #115
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #361 0.73 #126 +3.2 #4
Three Pointers 55% #3 0.99 #143 -6.2 #354
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #213 -1.1 #211
Freethrows 14.4 #44 74% #239 10.6 #59
Second Chance 29.5% #132 1.21 #341 0.36 #267
Turnovers 17.3% #121
Total Defense -1.8 #231

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #146 1.1% #267
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.0% #208 1.4% #206
Possession Length 17.5 #188 17.1 #152
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #198 0.18 #206
Improvement +3.0 #40 -0.4 #215

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 13.2% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.7
.500 or above 45.5% 66.8% 36.7%
.500 or above in Conference 92.3% 98.4% 89.7%
Conference Champion 4.5% 11.5% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.8% 2.5% 3.0%
First Round8.5% 12.2% 6.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Away) - 29.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 414 - 615 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 31 @North Carolina L 54 - 94 3% -24  0 - 1 -23 -16 F B F -4 C- F B+
 Tue, Nov 11 20 @Arkansas L 56 - 93 2% -16  0 - 2 -17 -13 F D- A+ -2 D A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 16 249 Samford L 77 - 84 OT 64% +3  0 - 3 -15 -7 F F D -7 D- B F
 Thu, Nov 20 127 @North Texas L 56 - 74 19% -5  0 - 4 -13 -8 D+ F F -5 B B F
 Sun, Nov 23 243 Eastern Washington W 92 - 65 63% +20  1 - 4 +19 +12 A+ F C+ +7 A- D A+
 Tue, Nov 25 310 Eastern Illinois W 81 - 60 76% +16  2 - 4 +9 +16 A+ A+ D+ -4 D D+ C
 Sat, Nov 29 135 @East Tennessee St. L 57 - 80 20% -10  2 - 5 -18 -15 F C- B- -3 F A+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 282 Arkansas Little Rock W 85 - 47 70% +29  3 - 5 +28 +5 B- F C- +22 A+ B+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 308 @East Texas A&M L 68 - 75 55% -1  3 - 6 -12 -9 C- F B- -3 A- F C
 Sat, Dec 13 21 @Vanderbilt L 72 - 83 2% -15  3 - 7 +9 +2 C- C+ A- +8 A+ F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 29 @SMU L 82 - 99 3% -11  3 - 8 +0 +15 A+ A+ D- -14 D- F B-
 Thu, Jan 1 225 Florida Gulf Coast W 85 - 83 60% -3  4 - 8 1 - 0 -5 +15 A- A+ A+ -19 F C- C-
 Sat, Jan 3 332 Stetson W 93 - 73 82% +13  5 - 8 2 - 0 +6 +16 B A+ C- -9 F D- A
 Thu, Jan 8 300 @Bellarmine L 78 - 84 OT 53% +0  5 - 9 2 - 1 -11 -6 F C- A -4 D- D- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 254 @Eastern Kentucky L 75 - 79 OT 42% -1  5 - 10 2 - 2 -6 -2 B- F F -4 F B- C
 Thu, Jan 15 292 Jacksonville W 62 - 60 73% -5  6 - 10 3 - 2 -9 -3 D+ F D- -5 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 350 North Florida W 98 - 69 85% +23  7 - 10 4 - 2 +14 +12 B+ C- A +1 C A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 338 @West Georgia W 86 - 65 66% +9  8 - 10 5 - 2 +13 +11 A+ F B+ +2 F F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 177 @Queens L 76 - 82 29%
 Sat, Jan 31 254 Eastern Kentucky W 78 - 74 65%
 Wed, Feb 4 328 North Alabama W 78 - 69 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 174 @Lipscomb L 72 - 78 29%
 Mon, Feb 9 328 @North Alabama W 75 - 72 61%
 Thu, Feb 12 300 Bellarmine W 79 - 72 73%
 Sat, Feb 14 338 West Georgia W 80 - 70 83%
 Thu, Feb 19 332 @Stetson W 76 - 72 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 225 @Florida Gulf Coast L 74 - 77 37%
 Wed, Feb 25 171 @Austin Peay L 69 - 75 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 177 Queens W 79 - 78 50%
Totals 14 - 15 11 - 7 -4 -2 C D+ C -2 C- D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.3 0.2 4.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.9 2.8 0.3 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.6 9.4 5.5 0.7 0.0 20.8 3rd
4th 0.0 2.1 10.7 15.3 7.7 1.2 0.0 37.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.7 6.8 1.9 0.1 15.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 3.5 0.9 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.6 11.9 18.9 22.2 19.4 12.5 5.5 1.6 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
15-3 82.5% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 36.6% 2.0    0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
13-5 7.3% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2
12-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.5% 4.5 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.2% 34.3% 34.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 1.6% 21.9% 21.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.3
14-4 5.5% 20.9% 20.9% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 4.4
13-5 12.5% 14.7% 14.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.7 10.7
12-6 19.4% 10.7% 10.7% 15.6 0.0 0.9 1.2 17.4
11-7 22.2% 9.7% 9.7% 15.8 0.0 0.5 1.7 20.0
10-8 18.9% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3 17.5
9-9 11.9% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 11.4
8-10 5.6% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.2 5.4
7-11 1.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 1.8
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 15.5 90.3 0.0%