Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#110
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#156
Pace67.1#215
Improvement-3.0#311

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#115
First Shot+1.7#124
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#151
Layup/Dunks+1.5#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#146
Freethrows-1.7#283
Improvement+0.7#146

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#138
First Shot+0.6#159
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#116
Layups/Dunks+1.5#113
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#143
Freethrows+3.5#9
Improvement-3.6#339
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.0% 36.6% 32.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 44.4% 47.6% 22.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round36.0% 36.6% 32.2%
Second Round3.5% 3.7% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Georgia (Away) - 87.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 37 - 47 - 8
Quad 414 - 321 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 142   @ Duquesne W 77-72 49%     1 - 0 +8.7 +2.7 +5.7
  Nov 06, 2024 43   @ Arkansas L 60-76 16%     1 - 1 -1.9 -8.1 +7.1
  Nov 09, 2024 151   Wofford W 78-69 69%     2 - 1 +7.3 +12.3 -3.8
  Nov 12, 2024 140   Belmont L 79-80 68%     2 - 2 -2.2 +2.7 -4.9
  Nov 17, 2024 115   @ Western Kentucky L 61-66 43%     2 - 3 +0.4 -10.5 +11.2
  Nov 19, 2024 22   @ Kentucky L 68-97 9%     2 - 4 -10.8 -1.6 -8.7
  Nov 24, 2024 284   Jackson St. W 77-53 88%     3 - 4 +14.8 +2.5 +12.6
  Nov 30, 2024 360   @ Alabama A&M W 82-44 92%     4 - 4 +26.1 +0.8 +23.7
  Dec 03, 2024 138   @ Chattanooga W 80-62 49%     5 - 4 +21.8 +10.2 +12.4
  Dec 05, 2024 265   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-60 86%     6 - 4 +9.7 +3.1 +6.9
  Dec 19, 2024 120   @ Middle Tennessee L 65-67 45%     6 - 5 +2.8 +0.0 +2.7
  Jan 02, 2025 179   @ Jacksonville W 70-65 58%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +6.6 +9.8 -2.5
  Jan 04, 2025 245   @ North Florida W 96-64 72%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +29.4 +9.6 +17.4
  Jan 09, 2025 213   Queens L 73-75 80%     8 - 6 2 - 1 -7.4 +4.3 -11.9
  Jan 11, 2025 345   West Georgia W 86-67 94%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +4.7 +9.8 -4.3
  Jan 16, 2025 356   @ Bellarmine W 87-53 91%     10 - 6 4 - 1 +23.0 +10.4 +14.6
  Jan 18, 2025 296   Austin Peay W 88-60 89%     11 - 6 5 - 1 +18.1 +16.5 +3.1
  Jan 23, 2025 155   @ North Alabama L 64-74 52%     11 - 7 5 - 2 -6.9 +0.9 -9.4
  Jan 25, 2025 341   @ Central Arkansas W 68-55 88%     12 - 7 6 - 2 +3.7 -2.8 +7.7
  Jan 30, 2025 231   Eastern Kentucky L 71-80 83%     12 - 8 6 - 3 -15.4 -7.0 -8.5
  Feb 01, 2025 356   Bellarmine W 87-80 95%     13 - 8 7 - 3 -9.0 +5.9 -14.6
  Feb 05, 2025 345   @ West Georgia W 79-66 88%    
  Feb 08, 2025 213   @ Queens W 78-74 62%    
  Feb 13, 2025 334   Stetson W 83-66 95%    
  Feb 15, 2025 164   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-67 72%    
  Feb 18, 2025 231   @ Eastern Kentucky W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 20, 2025 155   North Alabama W 76-71 71%    
  Feb 24, 2025 296   @ Austin Peay W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 26, 2025 341   Central Arkansas W 80-62 95%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 6.1 23.0 15.1 44.4 1st
2nd 0.0 2.1 13.9 7.8 23.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 7.4 8.1 0.2 16.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 5.9 0.9 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.1 1.5 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.4 6.3 17.0 29.0 31.1 15.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 15.1    12.7 2.4
14-4 74.1% 23.0    8.1 11.1 3.6 0.2
13-5 21.1% 6.1    0.5 1.7 2.5 1.2 0.3
12-6 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.4% 44.4 21.3 15.2 6.1 1.4 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 15.1% 48.9% 48.9% 12.4 0.3 4.4 2.6 0.2 7.7
14-4 31.1% 40.2% 40.2% 13.2 2.0 6.8 3.5 0.2 18.6
13-5 29.0% 34.6% 34.6% 13.6 0.4 3.8 5.0 0.9 0.0 18.9
12-6 17.0% 26.6% 26.6% 13.9 0.1 1.1 2.6 0.7 0.0 12.5
11-7 6.3% 19.9% 19.9% 14.2 0.1 0.8 0.3 5.0
10-8 1.4% 22.3% 22.3% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1
9-9 0.1% 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 36.0% 36.0% 0.0% 13.3 0.3 6.9 14.5 12.1 2.2 0.1 64.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.4% 100.0% 12.4 3.5 59.7 34.6 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.8%