Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.2 #174
Expected Predictive Rating +1.4 #140
Pace 74.0 #58
Improvement -0.4 #211

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #219 C D B- D A-
Defense #142 C C C+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #90 1.15 #183 +1.8 #114
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #334 0.56 #360 -4.4 #355
Three Pointers 46% #81 1.00 #208 +2.1 #111
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #195 -0.5 #194
Freethrows 14.1 #333 78% #33 11.0 #278
Second Chance 25.4% #317 1.06 #153 0.27 #278
Turnovers 15.5% #120
Total Offense -1.8 #219

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #261 1.15 #171 +1.7 #122
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #97 0.80 #250 -1.4 #290
Three Pointers 41% #173 0.99 #140 +0.5 #156
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #157 +0.8 #157
Freethrows 16.2 #127 73% #186 11.8 #135
Second Chance 31.3% #216 1.02 #144 0.32 #181
Turnovers 17.5% #109
Total Defense +0.7 #142

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.6% #31 -1.0% #88
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.6% #229 -0.5% #171
Possession Length 16.3 #85 17.0 #131
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #75 0.17 #172
Improvement -0.5 #205 +0.1 #182

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.5% 23.9% 19.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 98.4% 99.3% 96.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 98.9%
Conference Champion 23.7% 28.8% 12.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round22.5% 23.9% 19.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 69.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 416 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 21 @Vanderbilt L 61 - 105 3% -29  0 - 1 -24 -8 F C F -13 F A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 149 @Mercer L 77 - 92 32% -8  0 - 2 -11 +5 C- B B- -17 F F F
 Tue, Nov 11 205 @UNC Asheville L 64 - 69 45% -4  0 - 3 -5 -3 F C C -2 F D- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 82 @Belmont L 68 - 75 14% -7  0 - 4 +3 -8 F A- F +12 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 289 Western Carolina W 83 - 62 81% +12  1 - 4 +11 -1 C C C +11 A- B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 163 @Marshall W 90 - 67 35% +17  2 - 4 +26 +9 A+ F F +15 A+ C B+
 Sat, Nov 29 245 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88 - 77 52% +4  3 - 4 +9 +5 A- F F +3 A- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 342 Tennessee Tech W 83 - 80 89% +1  4 - 4 -12 -1 C- F C -11 F C- F
 Sun, Dec 7 301 Alabama A&M W 92 - 58 82% +13  5 - 4 +23 +21 A+ C+ A+ +4 A B B-
 Tue, Dec 16 3 @Duke L 73 - 97 2% -5  5 - 5 +1 +2 B+ F B- +3 A- F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 49 @Cincinnati L 62 - 89 9% -16  5 - 6 -13 -1 C- B- C+ -11 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 1 292 Jacksonville W 76 - 57 81% +9  6 - 6 1 - 0 +8 +13 A F A+ -1 C D- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 350 North Florida W 82 - 74 90% +2  7 - 6 2 - 0 -7 -4 F F A+ -3 C+ B+ C
 Thu, Jan 8 332 @Stetson L 83 - 91 74% -11  7 - 7 2 - 1 -16 -1 C F F -14 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 225 @Florida Gulf Coast W 84 - 77 48% +1  8 - 7 3 - 1 +6 +7 B- C F -1 C- B- C-
 Thu, Jan 15 300 Bellarmine W 81 - 71 82% +14  9 - 7 4 - 1 -1 +2 C- B+ F -2 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 171 Austin Peay W 82 - 78 61% +2  10 - 7 5 - 1 -0 +4 B- F A+ -4 C C A-
 Thu, Jan 22 332 Stetson W 79 - 74 OT 88% +5  11 - 7 6 - 1 -9 -12 F F B+ +2 C A A+
 Fri, Jan 23 225 Florida Gulf Coast W 81 - 75 70%
 Thu, Jan 29 292 @Jacksonville W 72 - 69 63%
 Sat, Jan 31 350 @North Florida W 89 - 81 78%
 Thu, Feb 5 171 @Austin Peay L 73 - 76 38%
 Sat, Feb 7 236 Central Arkansas W 78 - 72 71%
 Wed, Feb 11 254 Eastern Kentucky W 82 - 75 74%
 Sat, Feb 14 177 @Queens L 80 - 83 39%
 Wed, Feb 18 300 @Bellarmine W 80 - 76 64%
 Sat, Feb 21 328 North Alabama W 81 - 69 87%
 Wed, Feb 25 338 @West Georgia W 81 - 74 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 254 @Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 78 53%
Totals 18 - 11 13 - 5 -1 -2 C D B- +1 C C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 5.9 9.1 5.8 1.2 23.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.4 10.1 11.5 5.0 0.5 31.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.9 11.2 10.3 3.2 0.2 30.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 4.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.7 0.1 3.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.6 4.8 10.7 17.5 22.4 20.6 14.4 6.4 1.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 91.5% 5.8    4.6 1.2 0.1
15-3 63.5% 9.1    4.6 3.9 0.7 0.0
14-4 28.5% 5.9    1.6 3.0 1.3 0.0
13-5 6.9% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.7% 23.7 12.1 8.7 2.7 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.2% 41.3% 41.3% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.7
16-2 6.4% 35.7% 35.7% 13.5 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.1
15-3 14.4% 30.0% 30.0% 14.0 0.0 0.9 2.4 0.9 0.0 10.1
14-4 20.6% 25.4% 25.4% 14.4 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.2 0.1 15.4
13-5 22.4% 21.7% 21.7% 14.6 0.2 1.8 2.6 0.3 17.5
12-6 17.5% 16.9% 16.9% 14.9 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.3 14.6
11-7 10.7% 15.8% 15.8% 15.2 0.2 1.0 0.5 9.0
10-8 4.8% 10.8% 10.8% 15.4 0.3 0.2 4.3
9-9 1.6% 10.6% 10.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.4
8-10 0.3% 4.4% 4.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 14.4 77.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.7 2.0 39.2 50.0 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%