Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#182
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#184
Pace70.6#159
Improvement-1.2#276

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#243
First Shot-2.4#245
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#195
Layup/Dunks-0.2#185
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#83
Freethrows-3.4#334
Improvement+1.5#62

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#130
First Shot-3.3#290
After Offensive Rebounds+4.5#6
Layups/Dunks-4.6#329
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#240
Freethrows+1.8#81
Improvement-2.8#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.9% 19.5% 14.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 75.2% 85.5% 66.8%
.500 or above in Conference 85.4% 89.1% 82.3%
Conference Champion 22.7% 27.4% 18.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.6% 1.1%
First Four1.4% 0.8% 1.9%
First Round16.2% 19.0% 14.0%
Second Round0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Away) - 44.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 414 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 332 @Air Force W 74-54 70%     1 - 0 +12.9 -2.7 +15.1
  Tue, Nov 11 106 @Wyoming L 65-79 20%     1 - 1 -6.7 -8.9 +3.4
  Sat, Nov 15 293 @UNC Greensboro W 69-63 61%     2 - 1 +1.6 -9.2 +10.6
  Tue, Nov 18 58 @Mississippi L 65-72 10%     2 - 2 +5.4 -1.2 +6.3
  Fri, Nov 21 91 @Tulsa L 75-84 17%     2 - 3 -0.4 +6.7 -7.3
  Tue, Nov 25 330 Northern Illinois W 77-59 85%     3 - 3 +5.3 +2.9 +3.9
  Wed, Dec 3 122 @Kent St. L 84-96 23%     3 - 4 -6.0 +7.5 -12.9
  Sun, Dec 7 213 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 75-76 45%    
  Fri, Dec 12 115 East Tennessee St. L 71-73 42%    
  Sun, Dec 21 339 @UMKC W 75-68 73%    
  Thu, Jan 1 343 North Florida W 86-73 88%    
  Sat, Jan 3 275 Jacksonville W 73-65 76%    
  Thu, Jan 8 177 @Florida Gulf Coast L 74-77 38%    
  Sat, Jan 10 348 @Stetson W 75-68 75%    
  Thu, Jan 15 258 Eastern Kentucky W 79-72 73%    
  Sat, Jan 17 164 @Lipscomb L 71-75 36%    
  Thu, Jan 22 177 Florida Gulf Coast W 77-74 60%    
  Sat, Jan 24 348 Stetson W 78-65 88%    
  Wed, Jan 28 258 @Eastern Kentucky W 76-75 53%    
  Sat, Jan 31 285 @West Georgia W 73-71 57%    
  Thu, Feb 5 164 Lipscomb W 74-72 57%    
  Sat, Feb 7 200 North Alabama W 73-69 64%    
  Wed, Feb 11 199 @Queens L 76-78 42%    
  Sat, Feb 14 292 Bellarmine W 78-69 77%    
  Thu, Feb 19 343 @North Florida W 83-76 71%    
  Sat, Feb 21 275 @Jacksonville W 70-68 56%    
  Wed, Feb 25 273 Central Arkansas W 75-67 75%    
  Sat, Feb 28 292 @Bellarmine W 75-72 59%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.5 6.4 6.3 3.7 1.5 0.4 22.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 4.3 6.7 4.0 1.1 0.1 17.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.1 5.8 2.9 0.5 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.4 3.5 5.6 2.5 0.3 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 4.6 2.4 0.3 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.9 0.5 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.1 6.5 9.4 11.4 13.4 13.8 13.3 10.9 7.4 3.8 1.5 0.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
16-2 96.7% 3.7    3.3 0.3 0.0
15-3 85.5% 6.3    4.7 1.5 0.1
14-4 58.6% 6.4    3.3 2.5 0.6 0.0
13-5 26.2% 3.5    0.9 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.1% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.7% 22.7 14.3 6.2 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 44.6% 44.6% 12.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.5% 47.1% 47.1% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8
16-2 3.8% 42.6% 42.6% 13.7 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.2
15-3 7.4% 31.4% 31.4% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 5.1
14-4 10.9% 27.4% 27.4% 14.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.1 7.9
13-5 13.3% 22.0% 22.0% 14.8 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.4 10.4
12-6 13.8% 17.8% 17.8% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 11.3
11-7 13.4% 11.5% 11.5% 15.4 0.1 0.7 0.8 11.9
10-8 11.4% 10.6% 10.6% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.9 10.2
9-9 9.4% 6.3% 6.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.8
8-10 6.5% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 6.3
7-11 4.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 4.1
6-12 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 2.2
5-13 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-14 0.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 16.9% 16.9% 0.0% 14.6 0.1 0.4 1.8 4.6 6.4 3.7 83.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.4 57.1 42.9