Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.0 #171
Expected Predictive Rating +1.0 #148
Pace 70.6 #134
Improvement +0.6 #148

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #242 D- C B- D C
Defense #119 D+ A- A B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #155 1.02 #324 -2.3 #263
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #183 0.74 #202 -0.3 #189
Three Pointers 41% #188 0.94 #276 -1.9 #250
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #303 -4.5 #303
Freethrows 15.9 #261 68% #321 10.7 #293
Second Chance 29.8% #206 1.11 #105 0.33 #151
Turnovers 15.1% #90
Total Offense -2.6 #242

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #212 1.25 #287 -1.2 #218
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #181 0.79 #236 -0.3 #200
Three Pointers 42% #149 1.05 #228 -1.3 #239
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #268 -2.7 #268
Freethrows 16.6 #150 65% #6 10.8 #74
Second Chance 30.6% #184 0.81 #6 0.25 #29
Turnovers 20.2% #25
Total Defense +1.5 #119

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #185 -0.1% #157
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.9% #321 5.4% #276
Possession Length 17.1 #154 16.9 #103
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #98 0.20 #266
Improvement +3.1 #39 -2.5 #313

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.5% 24.3% 17.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 99.2% 99.6% 96.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 98.9%
Conference Champion 34.3% 36.6% 16.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round23.4% 24.2% 17.4%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stetson (Home) - 88.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 417 - 319 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 340 @Air Force W 74 - 54 76% +10  1 - 0 +12 -1 C+ D- F +12 C B+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 108 @Wyoming L 65 - 79 22% -5  1 - 1 -7 -11 F C F +5 B- A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 294 @UNC Greensboro W 69 - 63 64% +3  2 - 1 +1 -11 F D+ F +13 C A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 18 62 @Mississippi L 65 - 72 12% -7  2 - 2 +5 -0 F B C +5 A+ F A
 Fri, Nov 21 70 @Tulsa L 75 - 84 13% +2  2 - 3 +2 +6 B+ C- A- -4 F A+ B
 Tue, Nov 25 318 Northern Illinois W 77 - 59 86% +7  3 - 3 +5 +6 A+ C+ B+ +1 A- A F
 Wed, Dec 3 148 @Kent St. L 84 - 96 32% -3  3 - 4 -8 +6 A- F C+ -14 F C C-
 Sun, Dec 7 218 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50 - 63 48% -0  3 - 5 -13 -21 F F C- +7 A F A+
 Fri, Dec 12 135 East Tennessee St. W 76 - 75 52% +6  4 - 5 -0 +3 C F A+ -3 D A+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 350 North Florida W 102 - 83 90% +8  5 - 5 1 - 0 +4 +6 F A+ A+ -5 D+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 292 Jacksonville W 71 - 68 82% +2  6 - 5 2 - 0 -8 -5 F D A+ -3 F D+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 225 @Florida Gulf Coast W 82 - 71 49% +3  7 - 5 3 - 0 +10 +8 D A+ B- +2 C- A- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 332 @Stetson W 81 - 69 74% +7  8 - 5 4 - 0 +4 +4 F B A+ +1 C D B-
 Thu, Jan 15 254 Eastern Kentucky W 74 - 72 75% +1  9 - 5 5 - 0 -6 +3 F A+ D -9 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 174 @Lipscomb L 78 - 82 39% -2  9 - 6 5 - 1 -2 +2 D+ C+ C- -4 F A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 225 Florida Gulf Coast W 83 - 62 71% +12  10 - 6 6 - 1 +14 +8 C- A A+ +7 C+ B+ A+
 Fri, Jan 23 332 Stetson W 80 - 67 89%
 Wed, Jan 28 254 @Eastern Kentucky W 76 - 75 54%
 Sat, Jan 31 338 @West Georgia W 78 - 71 75%
 Thu, Feb 5 174 Lipscomb W 76 - 73 62%
 Sat, Feb 7 328 North Alabama W 79 - 67 88%
 Wed, Feb 11 177 @Queens L 77 - 80 40%
 Sat, Feb 14 300 Bellarmine W 81 - 71 82%
 Thu, Feb 19 350 @North Florida W 86 - 78 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 292 @Jacksonville W 70 - 66 63%
 Wed, Feb 25 236 Central Arkansas W 75 - 69 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 300 @Bellarmine W 78 - 74 64%
Totals 18 - 9 14 - 4 -1 -3 D- C B- +2 D+ A- A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 7.2 13.0 9.4 2.7 34.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.4 10.5 13.5 6.5 0.9 35.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.2 8.2 7.3 2.5 0.2 21.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 7.0 13.4 19.8 23.2 19.8 10.4 2.7 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.7    2.7 0.1
16-2 91.0% 9.4    7.4 1.9 0.1
15-3 65.8% 13.0    7.1 5.3 0.7 0.0
14-4 31.1% 7.2    2.3 3.5 1.4 0.0
13-5 8.8% 1.7    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.3% 34.3 19.7 11.6 2.8 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.7% 39.9% 39.9% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.6
16-2 10.4% 34.5% 34.5% 13.7 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.3 6.8
15-3 19.8% 29.7% 29.7% 14.2 0.0 0.9 3.2 1.8 0.0 13.9
14-4 23.2% 24.6% 24.6% 14.5 0.0 0.3 2.5 2.8 0.2 17.5
13-5 19.8% 19.3% 19.3% 14.8 0.1 1.0 2.4 0.3 15.9
12-6 13.4% 16.4% 16.4% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.4 11.2
11-7 7.0% 13.4% 13.4% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 6.1
10-8 2.8% 10.0% 10.0% 15.8 0.1 0.2 2.5
9-9 0.9% 6.4% 6.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
8-10 0.1% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.5% 23.5% 0.0% 14.4 76.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 12.7 3.7 34.4 49.1 12.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%