Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#296
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#256
Pace64.7#275
Improvement-2.6#299

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#311
First Shot-4.8#309
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#210
Layup/Dunks-1.6#241
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#252
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#277
Freethrows+0.9#122
Improvement+2.6#50

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#240
First Shot-1.8#237
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#232
Layups/Dunks-6.0#356
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#18
Freethrows-3.0#345
Improvement-5.2#358
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.6% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.6% 1.7% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 30.5% 53.5% 19.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
First Round0.6% 1.2% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Home) - 31.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 32 - 83 - 13
Quad 48 - 611 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 75   @ Butler W 68-66 6%     1 - 0 +12.0 +2.5 +9.6
  Nov 11, 2024 138   Chattanooga W 67-61 27%     2 - 0 +4.9 -3.4 +8.7
  Nov 17, 2024 6   @ Tennessee L 68-103 1%     2 - 1 -12.9 +8.0 -20.0
  Nov 20, 2024 282   @ Morehead St. L 58-63 38%     2 - 2 -9.2 -7.9 -1.9
  Nov 26, 2024 278   Georgia St. W 62-50 46%     3 - 2 +5.5 -8.0 +15.0
  Nov 27, 2024 200   Texas Arlington L 58-68 29%     3 - 3 -11.8 -11.1 -1.9
  Nov 30, 2024 153   @ East Tennessee St. L 57-79 16%     3 - 4 -18.8 -11.2 -8.9
  Dec 08, 2024 109   @ Samford L 47-72 10%     3 - 5 -18.6 -20.5 -0.1
  Dec 14, 2024 183   Southern Illinois L 60-65 36%     3 - 6 -8.6 -8.4 -0.7
  Dec 18, 2024 168   @ Ohio L 58-78 18%     3 - 7 -17.6 -13.1 -4.7
  Dec 21, 2024 57   @ Vanderbilt L 55-85 4%     3 - 8 -17.7 -14.3 -2.3
  Jan 02, 2025 245   @ North Florida W 97-89 32%     4 - 8 1 - 0 +5.4 +12.4 -7.4
  Jan 04, 2025 179   @ Jacksonville L 44-68 20%     4 - 9 1 - 1 -22.4 -24.6 +1.6
  Jan 09, 2025 345   West Georgia L 68-72 75%     4 - 10 1 - 2 -18.3 -13.3 -5.0
  Jan 11, 2025 213   Queens L 60-67 42%     4 - 11 1 - 3 -12.4 -13.0 +0.2
  Jan 16, 2025 231   Eastern Kentucky W 97-90 OT 46%     5 - 11 2 - 3 +0.6 +5.1 -5.5
  Jan 18, 2025 110   @ Lipscomb L 60-88 11%     5 - 12 2 - 4 -22.0 -6.9 -16.6
  Jan 23, 2025 341   @ Central Arkansas W 73-71 57%     6 - 12 3 - 4 -7.3 -1.9 -5.3
  Jan 25, 2025 155   @ North Alabama L 84-88 OT 16%     6 - 13 3 - 5 -0.9 +1.8 -2.3
  Jan 30, 2025 356   Bellarmine W 86-77 OT 79%     7 - 13 4 - 5 -7.0 -4.4 -3.2
  Feb 01, 2025 231   @ Eastern Kentucky L 82-88 28%     7 - 14 4 - 6 -7.5 +13.9 -21.9
  Feb 05, 2025 155   North Alabama L 67-73 32%    
  Feb 08, 2025 341   Central Arkansas W 71-64 76%    
  Feb 13, 2025 164   Florida Gulf Coast L 64-69 34%    
  Feb 15, 2025 334   Stetson W 74-68 74%    
  Feb 18, 2025 356   @ Bellarmine W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 20, 2025 213   @ Queens L 69-76 23%    
  Feb 24, 2025 110   Lipscomb L 65-73 23%    
  Feb 26, 2025 345   @ West Georgia W 70-68 55%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 1.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.3 4.5 0.4 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 9.8 11.4 2.3 0.0 25.2 7th
8th 0.1 3.1 13.6 14.8 3.7 0.2 35.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.2 9.5 8.5 1.7 0.0 22.0 9th
10th 0.3 1.8 1.1 0.1 3.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.5 4.3 13.8 24.0 27.0 19.6 8.7 2.1 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 0.0 0.2
11-7 2.1% 4.8% 4.8% 15.4 0.1 0.0 2.0
10-8 8.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.4
9-9 19.6% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 19.4
8-10 27.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 26.8
7-11 24.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 23.9
6-12 13.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.7
5-13 4.3% 4.3
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.8 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%