VMI
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.2#347
Expected Predictive Rating-10.6#325
Pace70.7#127
Improvement-0.5#218

Offense
Total Offense-6.5#341
First Shot-6.5#343
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#175
Layup/Dunks-7.5#356
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#175
Freethrows+1.8#78
Improvement+1.4#77

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#343
First Shot-4.5#322
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#274
Layups/Dunks-2.3#265
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#192
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#331
Freethrows+2.0#56
Improvement-1.9#321
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 2.3% 4.2% 2.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 44.6% 36.5% 45.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Away) - 11.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 31 - 81 - 13
Quad 45 - 96 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 343   @ Bellarmine W 76-71 37%     1 - 0 -3.7 -3.8 +0.1
  Nov 15, 2024 328   Tennessee Tech L 71-72 40%     1 - 1 -10.5 -9.6 -0.8
  Nov 16, 2024 301   Charleston Southern W 80-69 33%     2 - 1 +3.3 +0.6 +2.4
  Nov 18, 2024 33   @ Pittsburgh L 48-93 1%     2 - 2 -29.6 -16.5 -14.0
  Nov 22, 2024 122   @ Davidson L 66-93 6%     2 - 3 -21.5 -6.9 -14.1
  Nov 26, 2024 313   @ Loyola Maryland L 67-70 26%     2 - 4 -8.5 -2.7 -6.1
  Nov 29, 2024 136   @ George Washington L 64-77 7%     2 - 5 -8.6 -0.9 -9.1
  Dec 07, 2024 270   Queens L 78-81 37%     2 - 6 -11.7 +2.7 -14.5
  Dec 21, 2024 216   @ Richmond L 65-78 12%    
  Jan 01, 2025 132   @ East Tennessee St. L 64-81 6%    
  Jan 04, 2025 239   Mercer L 72-77 32%    
  Jan 09, 2025 112   @ Samford L 72-91 4%    
  Jan 11, 2025 183   @ Chattanooga L 67-81 10%    
  Jan 15, 2025 311   Western Carolina L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 355   @ The Citadel L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 22, 2025 128   Furman L 64-75 15%    
  Jan 25, 2025 157   UNC Greensboro L 64-73 20%    
  Jan 29, 2025 155   @ Wofford L 64-79 8%    
  Feb 01, 2025 311   @ Western Carolina L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 05, 2025 132   East Tennessee St. L 67-78 17%    
  Feb 08, 2025 355   The Citadel W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 12, 2025 157   @ UNC Greensboro L 61-76 9%    
  Feb 15, 2025 239   @ Mercer L 69-80 17%    
  Feb 19, 2025 155   Wofford L 67-76 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 128   @ Furman L 61-78 6%    
  Feb 27, 2025 112   Samford L 75-88 13%    
  Mar 01, 2025 183   Chattanooga L 70-78 24%    
Projected Record 6 - 21 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.0 3.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.7 2.8 1.0 0.1 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 4.8 7.5 5.2 1.6 0.2 20.6 8th
9th 0.6 5.1 11.8 10.8 5.2 1.2 0.1 34.7 9th
10th 3.2 9.2 10.3 6.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 31.7 10th
Total 3.2 9.8 15.4 19.7 17.8 14.1 9.5 5.4 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 16.7% 0.0    0.0
12-6 11.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
9-9 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
8-10 2.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.9
7-11 5.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.4
6-12 9.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.4
5-13 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.0
4-14 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.8
3-15 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 19.7
2-16 15.4% 15.4
1-17 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.8
0-18 3.2% 3.2
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.7%