Richmond
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#214
Expected Predictive Rating-8.5#305
Pace66.9#233
Improvement+1.3#97

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#207
First Shot+2.9#94
After Offensive Rebound-4.3#357
Layup/Dunks-1.9#256
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#186
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#159
Freethrows+4.6#6
Improvement+3.3#10

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#204
First Shot+0.1#167
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#287
Layups/Dunks+4.9#42
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#201
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#312
Freethrows-1.4#280
Improvement-2.0#325
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 16.0
.500 or above 2.6% 2.9% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 11.2% 11.9% 6.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 29.9% 28.6% 39.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Home) - 88.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 33 - 94 - 17
Quad 45 - 49 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 232   Marist L 72-79 66%     0 - 1 -13.7 -0.4 -13.6
  Nov 13, 2024 191   @ Charlotte L 48-65 34%     0 - 2 -15.4 -21.2 +4.2
  Nov 16, 2024 265   @ Bucknell L 76-80 2OT 50%     0 - 3 -6.5 -8.1 +2.3
  Nov 20, 2024 217   Maine W 70-66 62%     1 - 3 -1.6 -1.0 -0.5
  Nov 26, 2024 101   Louisiana Tech L 62-65 23%     1 - 4 +2.1 -1.9 +3.8
  Nov 27, 2024 291   Ball St. W 73-60 66%     2 - 4 +6.2 +5.4 +2.4
  Dec 08, 2024 1   @ Auburn L 54-98 1%     2 - 5 -18.3 -12.5 -3.8
  Dec 14, 2024 133   Belmont L 86-93 45%     2 - 6 -8.4 +2.1 -9.9
  Dec 18, 2024 222   @ William & Mary L 87-93 40%     2 - 7 -6.0 +14.7 -21.0
  Dec 21, 2024 348   VMI W 78-65 88%    
  Dec 28, 2024 188   Florida Gulf Coast W 69-67 57%    
  Dec 31, 2024 137   George Washington L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 04, 2025 190   @ Massachusetts L 72-76 35%    
  Jan 08, 2025 87   @ George Mason L 61-73 13%    
  Jan 11, 2025 98   Rhode Island L 72-77 32%    
  Jan 15, 2025 89   @ St. Bonaventure L 61-73 14%    
  Jan 18, 2025 144   Saint Louis L 76-77 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 122   Davidson L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 29, 2025 137   @ George Washington L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 01, 2025 58   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 60-75 9%    
  Feb 05, 2025 199   Duquesne W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 122   @ Davidson L 67-75 23%    
  Feb 11, 2025 106   Loyola Chicago L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 15, 2025 169   Fordham W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 19, 2025 165   @ La Salle L 71-76 32%    
  Feb 22, 2025 97   @ Saint Joseph's L 66-77 16%    
  Feb 25, 2025 58   Virginia Commonwealth L 63-72 21%    
  Mar 01, 2025 41   @ Dayton L 62-78 7%    
  Mar 08, 2025 87   George Mason L 64-70 29%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.0 0.7 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 4.6 1.6 0.1 8.2 10th
11th 0.0 1.3 5.0 3.4 0.3 0.0 10.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.9 4.5 5.3 1.1 0.0 12.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.9 4.5 6.5 2.3 0.1 14.4 13th
14th 0.1 1.2 4.6 6.7 3.2 0.4 0.0 16.2 14th
15th 0.7 2.9 5.8 6.1 2.8 0.4 0.0 18.7 15th
Total 0.7 3.0 7.0 11.6 15.0 16.0 15.1 11.9 8.5 5.5 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 77.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 49.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 12.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 6.8% 6.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 4.4% 4.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.7% 4.4% 4.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 1.6% 3.2% 3.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
10-8 3.0% 1.1% 1.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
9-9 5.5% 0.9% 0.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4
8-10 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 8.4
7-11 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 11.8
6-12 15.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.1
5-13 16.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.0
4-14 15.0% 15.0
3-15 11.6% 11.6
2-16 7.0% 7.0
1-17 3.0% 3.0
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%