IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-12.6	#351
Expected Predictive Rating	-13.1	#342

Pace	62.8	#334
Improvement	+5.4	#10

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#306	D	D+	D-	D	C
Defense	#353	F	C-	F	C+	D-

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	35%	#266	1.04	#307	-3.9	#309
2 Pt. Jumpers	17%	#238	0.73	#215	-1.4	#254
Three Pointers	47%	#59	0.93	#279	+1.2	#139
1st FG Attempt			0.94	#292	-4.1	#292
Freethrows	15.3	#284	71%	#244	10.8	#290
Second Chance	28.5%	#242	0.98	#262	0.28	#264
Turnovers					18.7%	#312
Total Offense					-5.1	#306

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	41%	#113	1.32	#343	-4.9	#332
2 Pt. Jumpers	14%	#337	0.84	#304	+1.7	#66
Three Pointers	44%	#86	1.12	#307	-3.9	#322
1st FG Attempt			1.16	#354	-7.2	#354
Freethrows	16.9	#164	70%	#72	11.9	#140
Second Chance	32.7%	#265	1.03	#169	0.34	#237
Turnovers					13.0%	#344
Total Defense					-7.5	#353

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	0.4%	#170	1.9%	#339
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-8.3%	#311	11.8%	#350
Possession Length	19.6	#351	16.8	#102
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.10	#351	0.20	#271
Improvement	+0.1	#168	+5.3	#7

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.2%	0.8%	0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	16.0	16.0	16.0

.500 or above	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
.500 or above in Conference	3.8%	14.5%	3.1%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	19.9%	7.4%	20.6%

First Four	0.2%	0.8%	0.1%
First Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Away) - 5.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 4
Quad 3	1 - 7	1 - 11
Quad 4	5 - 12	6 - 23

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Thu, Nov 6	134 @Boston College	L	47 - 76	6%	-11	0 - 1		-24	-17	F	F	F	-9	C+	D	F
Mon, Nov 10	234 Charleston Southern	L	86 - 96	30%	-0	0 - 2		-17	+8	A+	F	C	-24	F	F	F
Fri, Nov 14	338 @West Georgia	L	92 - 100	34%	-8	0 - 3		-16	+7	C	F	A+	-23	F	F	F
Mon, Nov 24	300 Bellarmine	L	58 - 70	43%	-5	0 - 4		-23	-16	F	C	F	-9	D-	C	F
Wed, Nov 26	298 Houston Christian	L	65 - 72	43%	-6	0 - 5		-18	-3	F	C	C+	-16	F	F	C
Sun, Nov 30	266 Presbyterian	L	41 - 69	26%	-19	0 - 6		-34	-22	F	F	F	-20	F	F	D-
Thu, Dec 4	137 @Davidson	L	63 - 79	6%	-9	0 - 7		-11	-1	B	D	F	-13	C	D-	F
Sat, Dec 13	69 @South Carolina	L	55 - 71	2%	-5	0 - 8		-5	-9	F	F	B-	+3	A+	C	D+
Wed, Dec 17	164 @College of Charleston	L	78 - 82	8%	+2	0 - 9		-1	+4	B	D+	F	-5	F	A+	C-
Sat, Dec 20	120 @Richmond	L	56 - 80	5%	-11	0 - 10		-18	-10	C	F	F	-10	F	B+	F
Tue, Dec 30	135 East Tennessee St.	L	49 - 74	15%	-13	0 - 11	0 - 1	-26	-19	F	B-	F	-10	F	F	B-
Sat, Jan 3	215 Wofford	L	86 - 95	27%	-8	0 - 12	0 - 2	-15	+12	A	A+	F	-28	F	A-	C
Wed, Jan 7	149 @Mercer	L	63 - 101	7%	-21	0 - 13	0 - 3	-34	-6	C-	A-	F	-31	F	F	C
Sat, Jan 10	289 Western Carolina	W	79 - 77 OT	41%	-2	1 - 13	1 - 3	-8	-0	F	A+	C-	-8	C	B+	F
Thu, Jan 15	294 @UNC Greensboro	L	66 - 69 OT	22%	+4	1 - 14	1 - 4	-8	-10	D-	F	F	+3	C-	A-	D-
Sat, Jan 17	349 @VMI	W	82 - 68	38%	+10	2 - 14	2 - 4	+5	+6	B+	F	D	-1	F	A	C
Wed, Jan 21	165 Furman	W	77 - 75 OT	20%	-6	3 - 14	3 - 4	-2	+3	D	B	C	-5	C	A+	F
Fri, Jan 23	135 @East Tennessee St.	L	61 - 78	5%
Thu, Jan 29	349 VMI	W	74 - 71	60%
Sat, Jan 31	294 UNC Greensboro	L	73 - 75	43%
Thu, Feb 5	249 @Samford	L	68 - 79	16%
Sat, Feb 7	247 @Chattanooga	L	66 - 77	16%
Wed, Feb 11	289 @Western Carolina	L	71 - 79	22%
Sat, Feb 14	149 Mercer	L	71 - 81	18%
Thu, Feb 19	249 Samford	L	71 - 76	33%
Sat, Feb 21	247 Chattanooga	L	69 - 74	33%
Wed, Feb 25	165 @Furman	L	62 - 77	8%
Sat, Feb 28	215 @Wofford	L	68 - 80	13%
Totals						6 - 22	6 - 12	-13	-5	D	D+	D-	-7	F	C-	F

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southern Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st													0.0							0.0	1st
2nd											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.1	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0							0.3	3rd
4th									0.1	0.5	0.4	0.1								1.1	4th
5th								0.2	1.9	1.6	0.2	0.0								3.9	5th
6th							0.1	2.8	3.6	0.6	0.0									7.1	6th
7th						0.2	3.9	7.2	1.9	0.0										13.1	7th
8th					0.4	5.8	12.8	4.7	0.2											23.9	8th
9th				2.0	12.7	18.6	7.3	0.6	0.0											41.2	9th
10th				3.6	4.4	1.3	0.1													9.4	10th

Total				5.5	17.5	25.9	24.2	15.5	7.6	2.7	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0							Total

Southern Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	2-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5	0.0%
12-6	20.0%	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.0%	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5	0.0%																					0.0
12-6	0.0%																					0.0
11-7	0.2%	2.6%	2.6%		16.0																0.0	0.2
10-8	0.8%	0.6%	0.6%		16.0																0.0	0.8
9-9	2.7%	0.9%	0.9%		16.0																0.0	2.7
8-10	7.6%	0.6%	0.6%		16.0																0.0	7.6
7-11	15.5%	0.2%	0.2%		16.0																0.0	15.5
6-12	24.2%	0.1%	0.1%		16.0																0.0	24.2
5-13	25.9%	0.1%	0.1%		16.0																0.0	25.9
4-14	17.5%	0.0%	0.0%		16.0																0.0	17.5
3-15	5.5%																					5.5
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	16.0																	99.8	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	4.3%