Chattanooga
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.0#209
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#261
Pace65.1#294
Improvement+1.5#76

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#157
First Shot+1.1#152
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#234
Layup/Dunks-4.7#320
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#190
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#29
Freethrows-0.1#183
Improvement-0.6#234

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#270
First Shot-1.1#212
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#299
Layups/Dunks+1.1#142
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#243
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#229
Freethrows-0.4#214
Improvement+2.1#31
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 10.7% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.8 15.2
.500 or above 50.7% 59.1% 34.4%
.500 or above in Conference 71.8% 75.5% 64.5%
Conference Champion 9.8% 11.4% 6.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.2% 2.2%
First Four1.6% 1.3% 2.1%
First Round8.9% 10.1% 6.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Home) - 66.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 63 - 9
Quad 412 - 615 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 42 @St. Mary's L 66-87 6%     0 - 1 -6.2 +4.1 -11.1
  Sat, Nov 8 131 @UNLV L 69-101 22%     0 - 2 -27.0 -0.8 -27.2
  Sat, Nov 15 177 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73-91 33%     0 - 3 -16.3 -0.1 -16.4
  Wed, Nov 19 352 @South Carolina St. W 78-66 74%     1 - 3 +2.4 -0.7 +2.7
  Sat, Nov 22 200 North Alabama W 71-57 59%     2 - 3 +8.6 +6.9 +3.9
  Sun, Nov 30 249 Tennessee St. L 64-70 68%     2 - 4 -13.8 -6.4 -7.8
  Sat, Dec 6 233 Southeast Missouri St. W 77-73 66%    
  Sat, Dec 13 20 Auburn L 66-84 4%    
  Wed, Dec 17 292 @Bellarmine W 75-74 54%    
  Sun, Dec 21 266 @Alabama A&M L 69-70 50%    
  Thu, Jan 1 293 @UNC Greensboro W 73-72 55%    
  Sat, Jan 3 337 @VMI W 76-71 68%    
  Wed, Jan 7 153 Furman L 71-72 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 228 Samford W 75-71 64%    
  Wed, Jan 14 208 @Wofford L 73-76 38%    
  Sat, Jan 17 281 @Western Carolina W 75-74 52%    
  Wed, Jan 21 115 East Tennessee St. L 71-74 38%    
  Sat, Jan 24 228 @Samford L 72-74 43%    
  Thu, Jan 29 208 Wofford W 76-73 61%    
  Sun, Feb 1 153 @Furman L 69-75 30%    
  Thu, Feb 5 191 Mercer W 78-76 57%    
  Sat, Feb 7 363 The Citadel W 79-64 91%    
  Wed, Feb 11 115 @East Tennessee St. L 68-77 21%    
  Sat, Feb 14 281 Western Carolina W 78-71 72%    
  Thu, Feb 19 191 @Mercer L 75-79 37%    
  Sat, Feb 21 363 @The Citadel W 76-67 78%    
  Thu, Feb 26 293 UNC Greensboro W 76-69 74%    
  Sat, Feb 28 337 VMI W 79-68 84%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.2 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 9.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.5 5.0 2.5 0.8 0.1 14.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 5.5 5.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 6.1 5.4 1.4 0.1 15.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.7 4.7 1.2 0.1 14.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 5.2 3.9 0.9 0.1 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.8 4.9 7.6 10.8 12.5 13.6 13.6 12.2 8.8 5.9 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 95.6% 1.4    1.2 0.2
15-3 74.8% 2.4    1.7 0.8 0.0
14-4 53.7% 3.2    1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 20.6% 1.8    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1
12-6 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 5.4 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 39.4% 39.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.4% 38.9% 38.9% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.9
15-3 3.3% 29.3% 29.3% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.3
14-4 5.9% 24.9% 24.9% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.1 4.5
13-5 8.8% 16.5% 16.5% 14.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 7.4
12-6 12.2% 11.7% 11.7% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 10.8
11-7 13.6% 10.2% 10.2% 15.4 0.1 0.7 0.7 12.2
10-8 13.6% 6.8% 6.8% 15.7 0.3 0.7 12.7
9-9 12.5% 4.2% 4.2% 15.9 0.1 0.5 11.9
8-10 10.8% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4 10.3
7-11 7.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 7.5
6-12 4.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 4.9
5-13 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.8
4-14 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 14.9 0.1 0.8 2.0 3.4 3.3 90.4 0.0%