Chattanooga
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.0 282
Expected Predictive Rating -8.9 306
Pace 66.5 239
Improvement +2.4 89

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #268 C- F+ B- C- C-
Defense D+ #280 C D D- D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 337 57% 193 -4.4 322
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 213 40% 116 -0.3 195
Three Pointers 50% 28 32% 271 +2.7 90
1st FG Attempt 0.98 233 -1.9 233
Second Chance 19.6% 362 1.05 136 0.21 355
Turnovers 15.8% 110
Freethrows 0.28 266 75% 95 0.21 224
Total Offense -3.6 268

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 193 59% 200 -0.2 186
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 249 35% 69 +1.4 83
Three Pointers 43% 103 35% 220 -1.7 269
1st FG Attempt 1.03 190 -0.4 190
Second Chance 32.5% 263 1.16 339 0.38 321
Turnovers 14.0% 334
Freethrows 0.35 312 74% 256 0.26 316
Total Defense -3.3 280

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.3 231 +0.3 221
Shot Type Accuracy -1.6 228 +0.1 187
Possession Length 17.3 177 17.6 248
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 239 0.20 271
Improvement -0.6 #225 +3.0 #38

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 4% 8% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 2% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Home) - 56.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 49 - 1011 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 40 @St. Mary's L 66 - 87 3% -12  1% 0 - 1 D+ -5 C+ +2 B+ D- F+ D- -8 F A A
 Sat, Nov 8 124 @UNLV L 69 - 101 13% -11  3% 0 - 2 F -27 D+ -3 B- F C F -24 F F F
 Sat, Nov 15 243 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73 - 91 30% -13  1% 0 - 3 F -20 D+ -3 D F B F -17 D F F
 Wed, Nov 19 358 @South Carolina St. W 78 - 66 69% +8  92% 1 - 3 C -0 D -4 F+ C- C B- +4 A+ F F
 Sat, Nov 22 344 North Alabama W 71 - 57 78% +6  69% 2 - 3 C -1 C- -2 C- C+ F B- +3 D+ C B-
 Sun, Nov 30 235 Tennessee St. L 64 - 70 51% -8  0% 2 - 4 D- -13 F -11 F D A+ C- -2 B+ F F+
 Sat, Dec 6 230 Southeast Missouri St. L 70 - 74 49% +1  53% 2 - 5 D -11 D+ -4 B- D C D- -7 D F+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 28 Auburn L 78 - 92 3% -7  0% 2 - 6 C +1 B +6 C+ D A+ D+ -5 D- F A
 Wed, Dec 17 283 @Bellarmine L 64 - 79 39% +1  61% 2 - 7 F -19 F -17 F F A C- -2 C C C+
 Sun, Dec 21 305 @Alabama A&M W 73 - 66 44% +4  78% 3 - 7 C +2 C+ +3 C+ D A- C -1 C+ D F
 Thu, Jan 1 302 @UNC Greensboro L 72 - 77 43% -1  35% 3 - 8 0 - 1 D -10 D -5 B- F C D+ -5 D- F B
 Sat, Jan 3 360 @VMI L 71 - 79 70% -8  0% 3 - 9 0 - 2 F -21 F -12 F F+ C- D- -9 F D+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 176 Furman L 67 - 78 39% -5  29% 3 - 10 0 - 3 F+ -15 F+ -8 C F D- D -7 C+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 194 Samford W 88 - 79 43% +14  98% 4 - 10 1 - 3 C+ +4 B- +4 C+ F+ A+ C -1 D B+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 212 @Wofford W 76 - 67 25% -2  26% 5 - 10 2 - 3 B +9 C- -0 A- F B- A- +10 B A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 263 @Western Carolina W 90 - 82 34% -3  33% 6 - 10 3 - 3 B- +5 A+ +18 A+ C A F -12 F+ C F
 Wed, Jan 21 126 East Tennessee St. L 66 - 67 28% -2  19% 6 - 11 3 - 4 C- -2 D- -8 C F D+ B +6 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 24 194 @Samford L 64 - 75 23% -1  37% 6 - 12 3 - 5 D -10 D -5 C- D- B- D -7 C+ C- F
 Thu, Jan 29 212 Wofford L 55 - 81 46% -13  10% 6 - 13 3 - 6 F -32 F -23 F F C+ F+ -11 D+ D- F
 Sun, Feb 1 176 @Furman L 70 - 75 20% -12  3% 6 - 14 3 - 7 C- -3 C +1 D B+ D D+ -4 C- F D+
 Thu, Feb 5 171 Mercer W 79 - 75 37% -1  32% 7 - 14 4 - 7 C +0 C- -2 A+ F F C+ +2 A C+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 347 The Citadel L 71 - 78 79% -2  11% 7 - 15 4 - 8 F -22 F -10 F C F+ F -12 F F F
 Wed, Feb 11 126 @East Tennessee St. L 61 - 73 13% -4  6% 7 - 16 4 - 9 D+ -7 F+ -9 F D+ A C+ +1 A+ B- F
 Sat, Feb 14 263 Western Carolina W 77 - 75 57%
 Thu, Feb 19 171 @Mercer L 72 - 81 19%
 Sat, Feb 21 347 @The Citadel W 71 - 69 60%
 Thu, Feb 26 302 UNC Greensboro W 77 - 73 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 360 VMI W 80 - 68 86%
Totals 10 - 18 7 - 11 -7 D+ -4 C- F+ B- D+ -3 C D D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C C+ D+ C- 31% 19% 50% C- C- F C+ F+ B- D+ B- C- D+ C B C- C 38% 18% 43% C- C D+ D- D D- D C- D
1.03 57% 40% 32% -2 0 0.98 20% 1.1 .21 16% .28 75% .21 1.13 59% 35% 35% 0 0 1.03 32% 1.2 .38 14% .35 74% .20
Nov
7		 St. Mary's C+ A- B+ D+ A- 29% 29% 42% D B+ D F D- F+ A+ A- A+ D- C F F F 40% 23% 37% B- F A+ B A A F F F
0.98 64% 43% 30% +1 -2 1.00 19% 0.7 .13 19% .35 79% .28 1.29 59% 60% 50% +14 0 1.30 29% 1.0 .29 21% .54 93% .51
Nov
8		 UNLV D+ A+ A+ D- B 29% 21% 50% D+ B- F B F C F A F+ F F D+ C F 41% 18% 41% C F F F F F F D F
1.02 71% 50% 29% +3 -1 1.06 16% 1.2 .19 18% .27 80% .21 1.49 80% 44% 35% +11 0 1.24 52% 1.4 .71 12% .62 73% .45
Nov
15		 Florida Gulf Coast D+ D D D F+ 42% 6% 52% A- D F F F B A+ D- A F F F B- D- 34% 28% 38% C D F F F F B- F C-
1.06 52% 33% 31% -5 +2 0.96 21% 0.7 .15 14% .51 70% .35 1.32 70% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.12 39% 1.4 .55 12% .25 87% .21
Nov
19		 South Carolina St. D B+ F+ D- D- 30% 21% 49% F F+ F+ A+ C- C A+ C- A+ B- F A+ A+ A+ 16% 37% 47% B+ A+ C F F F F C+ F
1.08 69% 33% 29% -1 -1 0.98 31% 1.5 .46 17% .58 71% .41 0.91 75% 5% 25% -16 -4 0.63 30% 2.0 .60 14% .54 62% .34
Nov
22		 North Alabama C- C+ A+ D+ C 27% 15% 58% D C- B+ D C+ F C+ D C B- D A C+ D+ 36% 19% 45% B- D+ C- B- C B- D A+ B-
1.18 62% 57% 32% +2 0 1.06 42% 1.1 .45 20% .29 71% .21 0.94 60% 25% 32% -3 0 0.95 30% 1.0 .30 20% .35 53% .19
Nov
30		 Tennessee St. F F+ F F F 35% 4% 62% B- F F A+ D A+ F A+ F C- A A- C+ A- 43% 26% 30% D B+ B F F F+ C F D-
0.98 50% 0% 28% -10 +2 0.87 17% 1.7 .28 11% .24 86% .21 1.07 48% 29% 31% -8 0 0.85 26% 1.6 .41 12% .26 93% .24
Dec
6		 Southeast Missouri St. D+ C- A- A+ B 48% 22% 30% C- B- F A+ D C F C+ F+ D- D+ A- D- D- 35% 19% 46% B- D D D F+ C- A+ A+ A+
1.06 55% 50% 43% +5 +1 1.13 16% 1.8 .28 18% .31 76% .24 1.12 61% 30% 38% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.4 .44 17% .16 56% .09
Dec
13		 Auburn B F A+ B B- 33% 31% 35% D- C+ F A+ D A+ B- A+ A- D+ F F F+ F 16% 26% 58% A+ D- F D+ F A F D+ F
1.11 44% 53% 37% +2 -2 1.02 13% 1.8 .22 9% .31 85% .27 1.31 86% 55% 40% +14 -2 1.26 47% 1.1 .53 19% .65 78% .51
Dec
17		 Bellarmine F A+ B F F 7% 16% 77% D- F F F F A D- A D+ C- C- A+ F C 39% 12% 49% C C D- A C C+ F F F
0.94 100% 44% 23% -9 -2 0.81 24% 0.9 .22 10% .25 80% .20 1.17 63% 17% 42% +5 +1 1.14 24% 0.9 .21 18% .39 86% .34
Dec
21		 Alabama A&M C+ D+ C A B- 33% 17% 50% C- C+ F A+ D A- D- D+ D- C C+ B+ A- B- 43% 20% 37% D- C+ C+ F D F F C- F+
1.14 56% 38% 42% +5 0 1.13 16% 1.6 .25 13% .29 69% .20 1.04 52% 30% 28% -7 0 0.88 23% 1.3 .31 13% .41 74% .30
Jan
1		 UNC Greensboro D A+ A+ D+ B 25% 15% 60% C B- F F F C F F F D+ C- F B+ D- 40% 19% 40% D- D- F B F B F C+ F
1.07 79% 63% 33% +8 0 1.18 16% 0.4 .06 13% .16 56% .09 1.15 59% 63% 29% +2 0 1.07 41% 0.9 .38 18% .56 68% .38
Jan
3		 VMI F C F F F 33% 27% 41% D- F F A+ F+ C- A+ A+ A+ D- F D+ C- F 24% 11% 65% C F F B D+ C F D+ F
1.02 63% 31% 25% -6 -1 0.88 21% 1.4 .29 17% .42 83% .35 1.14 73% 40% 33% +3 0 1.09 33% 0.8 .28 17% .50 72% .36
Jan
7		 Furman F+ F F A C 27% 18% 55% C C D F F D- F B- F D B A+ F B- 45% 8% 47% D- C+ C- F F F+ F+ F F
0.98 40% 30% 40% -1 0 0.98 26% 0.7 .18 17% .14 75% .11 1.14 55% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 31% 1.4 .44 16% .35 75% .26
Jan
10		 Samford B- D+ C+ B+ C- 50% 20% 30% A C+ F A+ F+ A+ B+ A+ A+ C F A+ C+ D+ 42% 17% 42% D- D A+ F+ B+ D F A- F
1.20 53% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 9% 2.0 .18 4% .34 92% .31 1.08 77% 11% 32% +2 +1 1.08 14% 1.2 .17 11% .55 61% .34
Jan
14		 Wofford C- C A+ A A- 38% 14% 48% C A- F F F B- B- D C+ A- B+ A+ C- B 35% 17% 48% B- B B+ A+ A+ F F A D+
1.10 58% 57% 42% +8 +1 1.20 14% 0.8 .10 15% .32 74% .24 0.97 47% 22% 35% -6 0 0.91 23% 0.3 .08 10% .40 64% .26
Jan
17		 Western Carolina A+ B- F A+ A+ 32% 8% 60% B A+ F+ A+ C A C A+ A- F A F F F 40% 23% 37% C+ F+ D- B+ C F F+ A- D+
1.38 63% 25% 50% +15 +1 1.34 21% 1.4 .29 11% .33 95% .31 1.26 43% 67% 42% +5 0 1.12 39% 0.8 .32 9% .36 62% .22
Jan
21		 East Tennessee St. D- D+ A+ C C 41% 6% 53% B+ C F F F D+ F A+ D+ B B+ D+ A+ A+ 52% 13% 35% F+ A+ F F F C- A+ B A+
0.98 55% 67% 35% +1 +2 1.08 19% 0.5 .10 21% .21 91% .19 1.00 52% 43% 17% -11 +2 0.83 34% 1.4 .47 15% .19 73% .14
Jan
24		 Samford D F B- C+ C- 24% 20% 56% C+ C- F A+ D- B- A F B D A F B B+ 40% 4% 56% F C+ C D C- F F B F
1.03 45% 44% 36% 0 -1 1.00 15% 1.4 .21 11% .38 67% .25 1.21 47% 100% 30% -5 +2 0.96 24% 1.1 .26 6% .62 64% .40
Jan
29		 Wofford F D+ C- F F 35% 16% 49% D+ F D- F F C+ B F D F+ C+ A- D- C- 48% 13% 39% D D+ F B+ D- F C- A B-
0.83 53% 38% 21% -11 0 0.80 24% 0.7 .17 15% .34 58% .20 1.22 54% 29% 38% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.8 .34 9% .33 65% .22
Feb
1		 Furman C F+ B+ D D+ 25% 22% 53% D+ D B B+ B+ D B B- B+ D+ B F D C 50% 11% 39% D- C- B F F D+ F F F
1.06 46% 45% 30% -5 -1 0.90 36% 1.2 .42 17% .29 75% .22 1.14 55% 60% 35% +2 +2 1.09 26% 1.6 .41 18% .39 76% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Mercer C- A+ F A+ A+ 36% 18% 47% C A+ F F F F A+ B- A+ C+ B+ A+ B- A+ 37% 26% 37% B- A F A+ C+ D F C- F
1.09 81% 25% 48% +16 0 1.33 14% 0.7 .10 24% .45 76% .34 1.04 50% 18% 31% -10 -1 0.81 42% 0.8 .32 14% .69 77% .53
Feb
7		 The Citadel F C+ B+ F F+ 31% 20% 48% D- F D+ B+ C F+ F B+ F F F D+ A- F 40% 10% 50% F F A- F F F B+ F C
1.04 65% 45% 27% -1 0 0.98 29% 1.2 .35 18% .14 75% .11 1.15 76% 40% 27% +2 +2 1.10 21% 1.8 .39 13% .22 85% .19
Feb
11		 East Tennessee St. F+ F F F+ F 37% 16% 47% C F F A+ D+ A F+ A+ D C+ A A+ B A+ 47% 17% 36% D+ A+ B D+ B- F F B- F
0.92 47% 25% 29% -9 +1 0.84 15% 1.6 .24 15% .21 83% .18 1.10 45% 25% 29% -11 +1 0.83 23% 1.2 .28 8% .57 74% .43



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.4 4th
5th 0.8 1.7 2.5 5th
6th 1.2 12.6 2.2 16.0 6th
7th 0.2 14.6 9.4 0.1 24.4 7th
8th 0.0 6.4 17.5 0.9 24.8 8th
9th 1.1 8.3 18.5 4.0 31.9 9th
10th 10th
Total 1.1 8.3 25.1 37.2 23.8 4.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 4.5% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 4.3
8-10 23.8% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.7 23.1
7-11 37.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.5 36.8
6-12 25.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.3 24.8
5-13 8.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.3
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%
Lose Out 0.6%