Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
135 East Tennessee St. 32.1%   15   12 - 6 6 - 1 +1.5      +0.6 145 +0.9 137 65.1 282 -0.1 164 +4.2 1
149 Mercer 26.5%   10 - 7 5 - 2 +0.7      +2.7 104 -2.0 242 74.0 57 +2.2 129 +0.7 3
165 Furman 18.7%   10 - 7 4 - 3 -0.6      -1.1 193 +0.5 151 66.2 259 -0.4 168 -4.9 5
215 Wofford 9.6%   11 - 7 5 - 2 -3.3      +0.7 141 -4.1 297 68.9 182 -0.3 165 +0.9 2
247 Chattanooga 5.2%   6 - 11 3 - 4 -4.8      -1.7 217 -3.1 271 66.5 246 -7.7 292 -6.1 6
249 Samford 4.0%   7 - 11 2 - 5 -4.9      -0.1 167 -4.8 314 68.0 214 -5.6 254 -9.7 9
289 Western Carolina 1.9%   4 - 12 2 - 5 -7.3      -2.4 231 -5.0 317 72.9 75 -7.7 293 -8.6 8
294 UNC Greensboro 1.8%   6 - 12 4 - 3 -7.6      -1.3 204 -6.3 342 68.3 201 -7.5 287 -3.7 4
349 VMI 0.1%   3 - 14 1 - 6 -12.4      -5.4 311 -7.0 351 68.5 195 -14.1 346 -17.3 10
351 The Citadel 0.1%   3 - 14 3 - 4 -12.6      -5.1 306 -7.5 353 62.8 334 -13.1 342 -6.4 7


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Jan 21 247 Chattanooga 66 135 East Tennessee St. 67   
Wed, Jan 21 249 Samford 78 215 Wofford 88   
Wed, Jan 21 165 Furman 75 351 The Citadel 77   
Wed, Jan 21 294 UNC Greensboro 85 349 VMI 78   
Wed, Jan 21 149 Mercer 88 289 Western Carolina 76   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 23 165 Furman 76 294 UNC Greensboro 72 65%   
Fri, Jan 23 135 East Tennessee St. 78 351 The Citadel 61 94%   
Sat, Jan 24 247 Chattanooga 74 249 Samford 77 61%   
Sat, Jan 24 149 Mercer 82 215 Wofford 81 54%   
Sat, Jan 24 349 VMI 74 289 Western Carolina 82 78%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
East Tennessee St. 1.5 67.1 20.7 7.8 3.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mercer 2.1 35.5 38.0 15.8 7.0 2.4 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Furman 3.4 9.4 18.6 28.6 24.4 10.9 5.1 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
Wofford 3.2 12.1 21.1 29.4 22.4 9.2 3.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Chattanooga 5.3 0.7 3.6 9.4 16.8 25.7 20.4 13.7 6.9 2.6 0.3
Samford 6.3 0.2 1.2 3.8 9.2 17.9 21.9 22.5 15.0 7.2 1.3
Western Carolina 6.9 0.1 0.3 1.9 5.8 12.4 17.0 21.3 24.8 13.0 3.4
UNC Greensboro 5.8 0.5 2.3 6.9 12.9 20.8 22.0 17.7 12.3 4.2 0.4
VMI 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 7.3 18.2 70.3
The Citadel 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.6 7.9 13.1 24.1 40.7 9.1

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
East Tennessee St. 14 - 4 20 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.1 10.9 19.5 24.7 21.6 12.3 3.7
Mercer 13 - 5 18 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 5.9 11.9 19.3 23.6 20.6 12.5 3.6
Furman 11 - 7 17 - 11 0.1 0.3 1.7 5.1 11.5 18.8 22.4 20.7 13.2 5.1 1.1
Wofford 11 - 7 17 - 12 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.9 9.9 17.4 21.8 21.2 14.4 7.4 2.1 0.4
Chattanooga 9 - 9 12 - 16 0.0 0.4 2.0 6.2 14.0 21.2 22.6 18.3 10.4 3.9 0.9 0.1
Samford 8 - 10 13 - 16 0.0 0.5 2.2 6.4 13.7 21.3 22.6 17.9 10.3 4.0 0.9 0.1
Western Carolina 7 - 11 9 - 18 0.2 1.5 5.6 12.2 19.4 22.1 18.9 12.0 6.1 1.7 0.3 0.1
UNC Greensboro 8 - 10 10 - 19 0.5 3.8 10.4 18.6 22.1 20.6 13.5 6.9 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
VMI 3 - 15 5 - 23 8.6 20.5 26.1 21.7 13.1 6.7 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 6 - 12 6 - 22 5.3 17.5 26.0 24.5 15.4 7.5 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
East Tennessee St. 67.1% 49.2 14.9 2.6 0.3 0.0
Mercer 35.5% 19.8 12.9 2.5 0.3 0.0
Furman 9.4% 3.6 3.7 1.7 0.2 0.0
Wofford 12.1% 5.3 4.8 1.7 0.3 0.0
Chattanooga 0.7% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Samford 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
VMI
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
East Tennessee St. 32.1% 32.1% 0.0% 15   0.1 1.6 7.4 14.5 8.0 0.5 67.9 0.0%
Mercer 26.5% 26.5% 0.0% 0.1 1.6 7.3 12.0 5.1 0.4 73.5 0.0%
Furman 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.8 7.7 6.5 1.2 81.3 0.0%
Wofford 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.0 1.8 90.4 0.0%
Chattanooga 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 4.0 94.8 0.0%
Samford 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.6 96.0 0.0%
Western Carolina 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.7 98.1 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.1 1.7 98.2 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.4% 1.0 3.6 96.4
2nd Round 3.0% 0.0 97.0 3.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
East Tennessee St. 32.1% 0.0% 32.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 26.5% 0.0% 26.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 18.7% 0.2% 18.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 9.6% 0.3% 9.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 5.2% 2.7% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 4.0% 1.4% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 1.9% 1.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%