Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
112 Samford 26.6%   14   7 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 8 13 - 5 +3.4      +5.4 49 -2.0 232 77.2 22 +7.2 89 0.0 1
128 Furman 20.0%   8 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 7 12 - 6 +2.1      +0.2 164 +1.9 116 64.8 284 +15.9 24 0.0 1
132 East Tennessee St. 18.3%   5 - 5 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 6 +1.7      +0.8 147 +1.0 142 67.4 222 -1.9 196 0.0 1
155 Wofford 11.5%   4 - 7 0 - 0 15 - 14 11 - 7 0.0      +2.2 115 -2.2 242 62.2 341 -2.0 198 0.0 1
157 UNC Greensboro 11.7%   4 - 5 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 -0.1      -1.3 205 +1.2 134 63.1 324 -1.1 185 0.0 1
183 Chattanooga 8.2%   6 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 -1.1      +1.6 127 -2.6 253 67.1 227 -0.2 169 0.0 1
239 Mercer 3.0%   4 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -4.3      -2.3 239 -2.0 233 71.9 98 -4.7 242 0.0 1
311 Western Carolina 0.6%   1 - 7 0 - 0 7 - 19 6 - 12 -8.4      -7.1 348 -1.3 208 75.6 36 -15.7 353 0.0 1
347 VMI 0.1%   2 - 6 0 - 0 6 - 21 4 - 14 -12.2      -6.5 341 -5.7 343 70.7 127 -10.6 325 0.0 1
355 The Citadel 0.1%   1 - 6 0 - 0 4 - 21 3 - 15 -12.9      -7.2 349 -5.7 341 64.3 304 -17.7 359 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Samford 2.5 38.3 22.2 15.2 10.5 7.0 4.3 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Furman 3.0 27.1 21.4 16.7 13.4 9.9 6.6 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.1
East Tennessee St. 3.2 23.3 20.5 17.3 14.2 11.1 7.8 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.1
Wofford 3.9 12.5 15.2 16.5 16.6 15.4 12.3 8.0 2.8 0.7 0.1
UNC Greensboro 4.0 13.3 14.9 15.5 15.8 15.0 13.0 8.4 3.1 0.8 0.2
Chattanooga 4.4 9.1 11.7 14.2 15.4 16.4 16.0 11.1 4.6 1.3 0.2
Mercer 6.0 2.4 4.1 6.3 9.6 13.3 18.8 24.2 14.3 5.4 1.6
Western Carolina 7.6 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.8 5.1 9.8 18.4 32.1 19.8 9.7
VMI 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 3.1 7.8 20.6 34.7 31.7
The Citadel 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 2.4 6.4 17.8 32.7 39.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Samford 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.4 7.8 10.8 14.4 16.6 16.4 13.0 8.4 3.7 0.8
Furman 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 4.0 6.9 10.3 13.4 15.5 15.8 13.3 9.6 5.4 1.9 0.4
East Tennessee St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.7 7.8 11.2 14.3 15.8 15.3 12.2 8.4 4.1 1.6 0.3
Wofford 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 5.2 8.1 11.4 14.5 16.0 14.8 11.7 7.5 4.3 1.7 0.6 0.1
UNC Greensboro 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.7 5.3 8.7 11.7 14.4 14.8 14.2 11.4 7.8 4.3 1.9 0.7 0.1
Chattanooga 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.3 7.0 10.7 13.7 15.2 14.6 12.4 9.2 5.4 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.0
Mercer 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.1 7.8 11.2 14.1 15.3 14.4 11.8 8.5 5.1 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 6 - 12 0.4 2.0 5.5 9.6 14.2 16.6 15.6 13.3 9.6 6.4 3.7 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
VMI 4 - 14 3.2 9.8 15.4 19.7 17.8 14.1 9.5 5.4 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 3 - 15 4.6 12.2 18.4 19.8 16.6 12.5 7.7 4.4 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Samford 38.3% 26.3 9.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
Furman 27.1% 17.1 7.6 2.0 0.4 0.0
East Tennessee St. 23.3% 14.4 6.6 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
Wofford 12.5% 6.9 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
UNC Greensboro 13.3% 7.6 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Chattanooga 9.1% 4.7 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mercer 2.4% 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Carolina 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
VMI 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Samford 26.6% 26.6% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 8.1 10.9 5.5 1.1 0.1 73.4 0.0%
Furman 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 8.5 7.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 80.0 0.1%
East Tennessee St. 18.3% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0 5.9 6.3 3.2 0.8 81.7 0.0%
Wofford 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7 3.7 3.2 1.3 88.5 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.9 4.0 2.9 1.0 88.3 0.0%
Chattanooga 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.0 2.3 0.8 91.8 0.0%
Mercer 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.2 97.0 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Samford 26.6% 0.0% 26.6% 3.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 18.3% 0.2% 18.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 11.5% 0.7% 11.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 11.7% 0.5% 11.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 8.2% 0.2% 8.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 3.0% 0.7% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 98.8% 1.0 1.2 98.7 0.0
2nd Round 10.0% 0.1 90.0 10.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0