Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
109 Samford 31.6%   13   16 - 5 8 - 2 22 - 7 14 - 4 +3.9      +3.7 77 +0.2 161 73.9 51 +6.2 84 +4.5 1
138 Chattanooga 16.1%   13 - 8 7 - 3 18 - 11 12 - 6 +1.4      +3.1 89 -1.7 223 67.4 206 +1.3 152 +1.9 3
151 Wofford 12.6%   10 - 11 6 - 4 15 - 14 11 - 7 +0.8      +3.0 93 -2.2 239 61.7 342 -0.4 171 +0.8 4
153 East Tennessee St. 12.5%   11 - 10 6 - 4 16 - 13 11 - 7 +0.7      +0.8 160 -0.1 172 65.5 255 -1.9 200 -0.2 5
159 UNC Greensboro 13.3%   11 - 9 7 - 3 16 - 12 12 - 6 +0.4      +0.3 175 +0.1 166 62.1 340 +0.3 162 +2.9 2
165 Furman 9.9%   14 - 6 5 - 5 19 - 9 10 - 8 +0.1      +1.1 151 -0.9 203 64.5 282 +4.1 105 -2.3 6
222 Mercer 3.3%   9 - 12 4 - 6 13 - 16 8 - 10 -3.4      -2.5 239 -0.9 199 75.9 31 -3.9 226 -4.8 8
304 VMI 0.6%   7 - 12 5 - 5 9 - 18 7 - 11 -8.0      -4.1 289 -3.9 290 68.8 165 -6.5 272 -2.8 7
350 Western Carolina 0.0%   3 - 15 2 - 8 4 - 22 3 - 15 -12.8      -8.8 357 -4.0 291 74.1 46 -13.3 342 -11.8 9
358 The Citadel 0.0%   1 - 16 0 - 10 2 - 23 1 - 17 -14.1      -8.5 355 -5.6 332 63.4 309 -21.4 360 -21.1 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Samford 1.5 70.7 16.5 7.5 3.6 1.3 0.4 0.1
Chattanooga 2.7 21.4 29.7 21.1 14.6 8.5 4.3 0.5
Wofford 3.5 11.3 19.7 21.3 20.7 14.7 9.3 2.4 0.6
East Tennessee St. 3.8 8.2 16.5 18.8 20.7 20.5 11.6 3.1 0.6
UNC Greensboro 2.7 22.8 28.6 21.9 14.4 8.2 3.5 0.7 0.0
Furman 4.9 1.4 6.1 10.4 16.9 24.5 30.0 8.7 2.0
Mercer 6.8 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.1 7.8 17.4 45.6 24.4 0.3
VMI 7.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.7 9.9 33.7 50.2 0.2
Western Carolina 9.0 0.0 0.1 2.1 91.6 6.1
The Citadel 9.8 0.0 0.1 16.8 83.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Samford 14 - 4 0.0 0.2 0.8 5.2 14.0 25.6 28.9 19.4 6.0
Chattanooga 12 - 6 0.2 2.3 9.4 21.5 29.4 24.2 10.7 2.3
Wofford 11 - 7 0.1 0.5 2.5 7.7 16.6 27.0 25.6 15.7 4.5
East Tennessee St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.5 3.1 9.9 21.8 27.5 23.0 11.9 2.3
UNC Greensboro 12 - 6 0.0 0.3 2.7 9.3 21.6 28.7 23.6 11.4 2.4
Furman 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.8 8.9 22.4 31.3 24.3 9.6 1.6
Mercer 8 - 10 0.3 2.0 9.3 22.7 30.1 22.6 10.1 2.6 0.3
VMI 7 - 11 4.2 20.6 31.4 25.2 12.8 4.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
Western Carolina 3 - 15 18.8 43.6 26.8 8.6 1.9 0.3 0.0
The Citadel 1 - 17 26.4 37.2 24.2 9.1 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Samford 70.7% 49.2 15.6 4.8 0.9 0.2
Chattanooga 21.4% 8.9 8.2 3.2 0.8 0.2
Wofford 11.3% 3.2 4.5 2.7 0.7 0.2
East Tennessee St. 8.2% 2.2 3.3 1.9 0.6 0.2
UNC Greensboro 22.8% 8.9 9.0 3.8 0.8 0.2
Furman 1.4% 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1
Mercer 0.1% 0.0 0.1
VMI 0.0% 0.0
Western Carolina
The Citadel


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Samford 31.6% 31.6% 0.0% 13   0.5 8.4 15.0 7.1 0.7 0.0 68.4 0.0%
Chattanooga 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 4.4 7.6 3.1 0.2 83.9 0.0%
Wofford 12.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 3.0 4.7 3.6 0.5 87.4 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.4 2.4 5.8 3.5 0.4 87.5 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.8 3.1 0.2 86.7 0.0%
Furman 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.8 1.7 0.1 90.1 0.0%
Mercer 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 96.7 0.0%
VMI 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Samford 31.6% 0.0% 31.6% 3.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 16.1% 0.0% 16.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 12.6% 0.2% 12.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 12.5% 0.1% 12.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Greensboro 13.3% 0.0% 13.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Furman 9.9% 0.0% 9.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 3.3% 1.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.1% 1.0 0.9 99.1
2nd Round 7.1% 0.1 92.9 7.1
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0