Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
94 Liberty 34.2%   12   13 - 3 8 - 0 +5.6      +5.6 60 0.0 169 62.8 333 +10.1 59 +15.4 1
124 Sam Houston St. 14.7%   9 - 7 4 - 4 +2.5      +1.8 121 +0.6 145 74.2 56 +3.3 112 +0.6 4
128 Middle Tennessee 14.4%   8 - 7 5 - 2 +2.0      -0.4 172 +2.4 106 65.8 272 +3.4 110 +3.4 2
133 New Mexico St. 10.4%   7 - 8 3 - 5 +1.6      +2.5 110 -0.9 200 64.7 288 -1.2 185 -3.4 9
150 Kennesaw St. 8.4%   9 - 7 4 - 4 +0.6      +1.0 135 -0.4 179 78.7 13 +0.1 163 +0.1 6
162 Western Kentucky 5.9%   9 - 8 4 - 4 -0.3      -0.8 188 +0.5 149 75.9 33 +0.4 157 -1.2 7
179 Missouri St. 5.3%   8 - 8 5 - 3 -1.3      -0.1 168 -1.2 214 62.5 340 -1.0 180 +2.9 3
192 Florida International 2.4%   6 - 10 2 - 6 -2.1      -0.9 189 -1.2 215 76.6 27 -4.4 231 -6.7 11
216 Jacksonville St. 2.2%   6 - 9 4 - 3 -3.3      -2.3 229 -1.1 212 62.3 342 -5.1 240 +0.4 5
228 Louisiana Tech 1.5%   7 - 8 3 - 4 -3.8      -5.8 320 +1.9 112 60.4 359 -3.6 225 -3.0 8
256 UTEP 0.6%   4 - 12 3 - 5 -5.1      -3.2 263 -1.9 238 63.6 318 -6.3 267 -3.6 10
295 Delaware 0.2%   5 - 12 1 - 6 -7.6      -4.7 298 -3.0 267 61.3 350 -9.5 317 -12.8 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Jan 21 94 Liberty 76 162 Western Kentucky 69   
Wed, Jan 21 150 Kennesaw St. 87 124 Sam Houston St. 93   
Thu, Jan 22 179 Missouri St. 84 133 New Mexico St. 75   
Thu, Jan 22 192 Florida International 77 256 UTEP 83   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 23 216 Jacksonville St. 66 128 Middle Tennessee 68 59%   
Fri, Jan 23 150 Kennesaw St. 71 228 Louisiana Tech 70 56%   
Sat, Jan 24 124 Sam Houston St. 83 162 Western Kentucky 78 71%   
Sat, Jan 24 192 Florida International 74 133 New Mexico St. 81 74%   
Sat, Jan 24 179 Missouri St. 68 256 UTEP 67 53%   
Sat, Jan 24 295 Delaware 60 94 Liberty 77 93%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 1.1 92.6 6.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Sam Houston St. 3.8 3.2 25.5 24.3 16.8 11.9 7.9 5.1 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
Middle Tennessee 3.0 9.6 42.3 19.5 11.4 6.9 4.7 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
New Mexico St. 5.5 0.4 7.9 13.5 16.4 15.6 14.4 11.5 9.0 5.8 3.6 1.8 0.1
Kennesaw St. 4.9 1.3 13.7 17.4 16.4 14.2 12.1 9.8 7.1 4.7 2.3 1.0 0.1
Western Kentucky 6.0 0.5 6.7 9.8 12.2 13.6 14.8 14.4 11.9 8.5 5.1 2.2 0.2
Missouri St. 4.6 1.5 16.1 18.3 17.0 15.1 11.8 8.7 5.8 3.5 1.5 0.6 0.1
Florida International 8.8 0.5 1.0 2.4 4.0 6.8 9.4 12.9 18.1 20.8 19.6 4.4
Jacksonville St. 6.8 0.4 4.1 6.6 9.3 11.0 12.5 13.9 14.8 12.3 8.8 5.8 0.7
Louisiana Tech 8.2 0.1 1.2 3.2 5.0 6.5 8.2 10.7 14.1 17.0 15.6 15.3 3.0
UTEP 8.9 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.1 3.6 5.7 9.1 12.9 18.2 22.4 20.1 4.1
Delaware 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.6 6.1 15.6 73.7

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Liberty 17 - 3 22 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 5.5 11.5 18.1 23.4 21.6 13.2 4.0
Sam Houston St. 12 - 8 17 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 6.4 12.1 18.0 21.5 19.2 12.7 5.4 1.1
Middle Tennessee 13 - 7 16 - 12 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.2 7.3 12.1 17.0 18.7 17.7 13.1 6.8 2.2 0.4
New Mexico St. 10 - 10 14 - 13 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.5 9.2 15.6 20.0 20.2 15.4 8.9 3.5 0.5
Kennesaw St. 11 - 9 16 - 12 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.2 7.3 12.8 17.0 20.1 17.2 12.5 6.2 2.1 0.3
Western Kentucky 10 - 10 15 - 14 0.1 0.5 2.6 7.1 12.8 18.6 20.7 17.3 11.2 6.1 2.2 0.6 0.0
Missouri St. 11 - 9 14 - 14 0.1 0.5 2.1 6.0 11.0 17.6 20.2 18.6 13.4 7.2 2.8 0.6 0.0
Florida International 7 - 13 11 - 17 0.2 1.1 4.2 9.8 16.6 20.8 19.4 14.6 8.5 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
Jacksonville St. 9 - 11 11 - 17 0.3 2.1 5.7 11.7 16.8 19.2 17.5 13.3 7.5 4.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Tech 8 - 12 12 - 16 0.5 2.9 7.3 12.5 17.9 19.0 16.4 11.3 7.2 3.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
UTEP 7 - 13 8 - 20 0.7 3.8 10.6 17.4 21.7 19.7 14.1 7.4 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.0
Delaware 4 - 16 8 - 22 5.5 15.9 22.4 22.5 16.6 9.6 4.9 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 92.6% 84.7 7.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
Sam Houston St. 3.2% 1.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Middle Tennessee 9.6% 4.5 4.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
New Mexico St. 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 1.3% 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Western Kentucky 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 1.5% 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida International
Jacksonville St. 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Tech 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
UTEP 0.0% 0.0
Delaware


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 34.2% 34.1% 0.1% 12   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.5 20.5 5.3 0.4 0.0 65.8 0.1%
Sam Houston St. 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.3 4.2 7.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 85.3 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.3 4.0 6.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 85.6 0.0%
New Mexico St. 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.4 2.7 1.1 0.3 89.6 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.1 1.0 0.1 91.6 0.0%
Western Kentucky 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.3 94.1 0.0%
Missouri St. 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.6 0.3 94.7 0.0%
Florida International 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 97.6 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.7 97.8 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 98.5 0.0%
UTEP 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%
Delaware 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 99.2 0.0
2nd Round 8.2% 0.1 91.8 8.2
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 34.2% 0.1% 34.1% 4.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 14.7% 0.0% 14.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 14.4% 0.0% 14.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 10.4% 0.1% 10.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 8.4% 0.0% 8.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 5.9% 0.1% 5.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 5.3% 0.1% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 2.4% 0.7% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 2.2% 0.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 1.5% 0.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%