Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
108 Sam Houston St. 28.4%   13   18 - 8 13 - 5 +3.9      +3.4 92 +0.5 155 73.6 51 +4.8 102 +3.8 2
114 Liberty 25.9%   21 - 5 16 - 2 +3.3      +5.3 67 -2.0 228 62.5 331 +8.5 68 +10.6 1
130 Western Kentucky 17.2%   16 - 11 11 - 7 +2.0      -0.3 170 +2.3 112 74.0 42 +1.7 131 +1.3 3
157 Kennesaw St. 8.9%   15 - 11 10 - 8 +0.1      +1.1 137 -1.0 207 76.4 21 +0.1 154 +0.2 4
164 Middle Tennessee 5.6%   12 - 14 9 - 9 -0.4      +0.1 160 -0.5 191 65.2 266 -0.6 166 -1.7 7
176 New Mexico St. 3.4%   10 - 15 6 - 12 -1.0      +0.8 142 -1.9 224 66.6 235 -3.1 219 -5.1 11
192 Jacksonville St. 3.4%   11 - 15 9 - 9 -2.0      -1.6 211 -0.4 188 63.3 322 -3.9 234 -1.2 5
199 Florida International 2.3%   11 - 15 7 - 11 -2.2      -1.5 204 -0.7 197 77.6 13 -3.0 216 -3.5 8
204 Missouri St. 2.1%   10 - 16 7 - 11 -2.4      -1.1 190 -1.4 215 64.6 283 -4.3 238 -3.9 9
220 Louisiana Tech 2.0%   13 - 13 9 - 9 -3.6      -5.6 315 +2.0 120 62.5 332 -2.3 200 -1.4 6
259 UTEP 0.5%   7 - 19 6 - 12 -5.6      -4.6 295 -1.1 210 63.8 306 -6.2 262 -4.9 10
274 Delaware 0.5%   9 - 19 5 - 13 -6.2      -2.2 234 -4.0 291 59.9 360 -6.8 271 -6.1 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 28 192 Jacksonville St. 78 114 Liberty 81   
Sat, Feb 28 164 Middle Tennessee 86 176 New Mexico St. 85   
Sat, Feb 28 199 Florida International 84 220 Louisiana Tech 76   
Sat, Feb 28 204 Missouri St. 81 108 Sam Houston St. 86   
Sat, Feb 28 259 UTEP 65 130 Western Kentucky 97   
Sat, Feb 28 274 Delaware 82 157 Kennesaw St. 90   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Mar 5 192 Jacksonville St. 69 176 New Mexico St. 73 65%   
Thu, Mar 5 199 Florida International 77 164 Middle Tennessee 76 55%   
Thu, Mar 5 204 Missouri St. 73 130 Western Kentucky 74 55%   
Thu, Mar 5 114 Liberty 72 220 Louisiana Tech 63 82%   
Thu, Mar 5 157 Kennesaw St. 76 259 UTEP 73 60%   
Thu, Mar 5 274 Delaware 70 108 Sam Houston St. 77 75%   
Sat, Mar 7 114 Liberty 79 108 Sam Houston St. 77 59%   
Sat, Mar 7 157 Kennesaw St. 79 176 New Mexico St. 80 57%   
Sat, Mar 7 164 Middle Tennessee 70 204 Missouri St. 71 54%   
Sat, Mar 7 199 Florida International 80 130 Western Kentucky 81 54%   
Sat, Mar 7 192 Jacksonville St. 67 259 UTEP 66 52%   
Sat, Mar 7 274 Delaware 65 220 Louisiana Tech 64 51%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 1.0 100.0
Sam Houston St. 2.0 100.0
Western Kentucky 3.0 4.7 89.8 5.5
Kennesaw St. 3.8 28.8 61.4 8.3 1.4 0.1
Middle Tennessee 5.2 3.3 22.6 38.5 23.2 12.4
Jacksonville St. 5.3 2.6 20.4 37.7 25.7 13.6
Louisiana Tech 5.6 1.3 13.0 33.2 30.2 22.4
Florida International 8.1 1.9 7.8 10.8 46.0 24.0 8.2 1.3
Missouri St. 8.2 1.8 7.7 10.6 44.7 25.0 8.6 1.6
New Mexico St. 9.4 24.2 28.3 31.0 15.0 1.4
UTEP 9.9 13.5 19.8 29.1 34.1 3.5
Delaware 11.5 0.5 2.9 8.2 22.3 66.1

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Liberty 17 - 3 22 - 6 7.7 43.3 49.0
Sam Houston St. 14 - 6 19 - 9 15.3 53.2 31.5
Western Kentucky 12 - 8 17 - 12 20.5 48.6 30.9
Kennesaw St. 11 - 9 16 - 12 23.2 50.1 26.7
Middle Tennessee 10 - 10 13 - 15 29.7 48.0 22.3
Jacksonville St. 10 - 10 12 - 16 31.6 49.7 18.8
Louisiana Tech 10 - 10 14 - 14 42.5 48.5 9.0
Florida International 8 - 12 12 - 16 25.3 49.9 24.8
Missouri St. 8 - 12 11 - 17 26.9 48.7 24.4
New Mexico St. 7 - 13 11 - 16 15.9 46.7 37.4
UTEP 7 - 13 8 - 20 31.9 48.4 19.7
Delaware 6 - 14 10 - 20 37.0 50.1 13.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 100.0% 100.0
Sam Houston St.
Western Kentucky
Kennesaw St.
Middle Tennessee
Jacksonville St.
Louisiana Tech
Florida International
Missouri St.
New Mexico St.
UTEP
Delaware


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Sam Houston St. 28.4% 28.4% 0.0% 13   0.2 10.5 14.8 2.9 0.0 71.6 0.0%
Liberty 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 0.8 12.9 11.5 0.7 74.1 0.0%
Western Kentucky 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 1.8 9.1 5.7 0.6 82.8 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.2 2.7 4.6 1.3 0.1 91.1 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 2.0 2.3 0.6 94.4 0.0%
New Mexico St. 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.2 2.2 96.6 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 2.3 96.6 0.0%
Florida International 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.2 0.8 1.4 97.7 0.0%
Missouri St. 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.2 1.8 97.9 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 98.0 0.0%
UTEP 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Delaware 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.6 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.5% 1.0 2.5 97.5
2nd Round 5.4% 0.1 94.6 5.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Sam Houston St. 28.4% 0.0% 28.4% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Liberty 25.9% 0.0% 25.9% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 17.2% 0.0% 17.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 8.9% 0.0% 8.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 5.6% 0.3% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 3.4% 1.5% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 3.4% 1.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 2.3% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 2.1% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 2.0% 0.3% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%