Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
87 Liberty 29.2%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 8 14 - 6 +5.9      +2.8 95 +3.1 85 64.4 297 0.0 121 0.0 1
135 New Mexico St. 10.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 9 +1.3      -0.5 175 +1.8 111 63.2 317 0.0 121 0.0 1
143 Kennesaw St. 9.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 9 +0.7      +0.8 139 -0.1 169 74.2 53 0.0 121 0.0 1
145 Louisiana Tech 8.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 9 +0.4      -1.0 204 +1.4 120 62.5 329 0.0 121 0.0 1
151 Middle Tennessee 7.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 10 0.0      -0.8 189 +0.8 138 70.0 133 0.0 121 0.0 1
157 Western Kentucky 6.8%   1 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 10 - 10 -0.3      -0.8 190 +0.5 150 77.8 14 +0.6 115 0.0 1
158 Jacksonville St. 7.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 10 -0.4      -1.1 207 +0.7 142 63.1 318 0.0 121 0.0 1
164 Missouri St. 6.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 10 -0.6      -1.4 212 +0.8 136 61.3 348 0.0 121 0.0 1
166 UTEP 6.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 10 -0.7      -1.7 222 +1.0 127 70.4 126 0.0 121 0.0 1
200 Sam Houston St. 3.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 9 - 11 -2.3      -0.8 186 -1.6 213 68.7 177 0.0 121 0.0 1
211 Florida International 3.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 12 -2.7      -2.5 239 -0.1 172 70.5 125 0.0 121 0.0 1
258 Delaware 1.3%   0 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 13 -5.1      -1.3 211 -3.8 308 74.7 40 -15.8 354 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 2.9 40.0 18.7 11.9 8.3 6.0 4.8 3.3 2.6 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.4
New Mexico St. 5.2 13.0 12.6 11.5 10.3 9.6 8.6 8.2 7.1 6.6 5.4 4.3 2.9
Kennesaw St. 5.6 10.8 11.2 10.5 10.0 10.0 9.1 8.6 7.8 6.7 6.3 5.4 3.6
Louisiana Tech 5.7 10.3 11.1 10.1 10.0 10.0 8.9 8.3 8.4 7.2 6.1 5.4 4.1
Middle Tennessee 5.8 9.3 11.0 10.3 9.5 9.5 9.2 8.4 8.3 7.5 6.8 5.7 4.5
Western Kentucky 6.2 7.0 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.3 9.1 8.7 8.4 7.7 6.8 5.4
Jacksonville St. 6.1 8.0 8.9 9.5 9.5 9.9 9.2 8.9 8.5 7.9 7.5 6.9 5.3
Missouri St. 6.1 7.6 9.5 9.6 9.9 9.5 9.3 8.9 8.5 7.9 7.3 6.8 5.4
UTEP 6.4 7.0 8.4 9.0 8.9 9.3 9.3 9.0 8.5 8.5 8.5 7.3 6.4
Sam Houston St. 7.3 3.8 5.7 6.7 7.4 7.8 8.5 9.4 9.8 10.3 10.4 10.1 10.2
Florida International 7.6 3.3 4.9 5.9 6.7 7.4 8.1 9.0 9.3 10.6 11.2 12.2 11.4
Delaware 8.9 1.2 1.9 3.0 3.8 5.2 6.0 7.4 8.9 11.1 13.1 16.7 21.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Liberty 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.6 3.5 5.0 6.8 8.1 9.5 11.2 11.9 11.9 10.3 8.3 5.2 2.2
New Mexico St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.1 4.5 6.0 7.5 9.0 9.7 9.6 9.8 9.5 8.4 7.1 5.2 3.6 2.2 0.9 0.3
Kennesaw St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.5 3.9 5.2 6.8 8.1 9.0 10.2 10.5 9.5 8.6 7.8 6.0 4.5 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.1
Louisiana Tech 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.6 4.0 5.3 6.7 8.2 9.6 10.0 10.0 9.4 8.9 7.6 5.9 4.3 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.2
Middle Tennessee 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.9 4.0 5.7 7.1 8.6 9.7 9.9 9.5 9.8 8.4 7.0 5.6 4.2 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.1
Western Kentucky 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.4 5.0 6.5 8.2 9.3 9.8 10.5 10.2 9.0 7.9 6.2 4.5 3.1 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1
Jacksonville St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.4 5.0 6.4 7.8 8.8 9.9 10.2 10.0 8.9 7.8 6.3 5.0 3.0 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1
Missouri St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.3 4.9 6.2 7.9 8.6 10.1 9.9 10.0 9.4 7.7 6.5 5.0 3.4 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1
UTEP 10 - 10 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.0 5.4 7.0 8.2 9.5 9.7 10.1 9.4 8.8 7.4 5.7 4.4 2.9 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1
Sam Houston St. 9 - 11 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.0 5.7 7.3 9.0 9.7 10.8 10.2 9.5 8.3 6.6 5.5 4.2 2.8 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida International 8 - 12 0.4 1.4 2.9 4.5 6.8 8.0 9.6 10.2 10.4 9.7 9.0 7.7 6.3 5.1 3.4 2.3 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Delaware 7 - 13 0.9 3.0 5.8 8.1 10.2 10.8 11.6 11.2 9.5 8.6 6.5 4.9 3.7 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 40.0% 30.7 7.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
New Mexico St. 13.0% 8.8 3.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 10.8% 6.9 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Tech 10.3% 6.7 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Middle Tennessee 9.3% 5.8 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Kentucky 7.0% 4.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 8.0% 5.2 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 7.6% 4.8 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UTEP 7.0% 4.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Sam Houston St. 3.8% 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida International 3.3% 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Delaware 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 29.2% 28.4% 0.7% 12   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.6 9.0 10.4 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 70.8 1.0%
New Mexico St. 10.7% 10.6% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.0 3.7 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.3 89.3 0.2%
Kennesaw St. 9.4% 9.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5 3.4 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 90.6 0.1%
Louisiana Tech 8.7% 8.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4 2.8 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.3 91.3 0.1%
Middle Tennessee 7.7% 7.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.6 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.4 92.3 0.1%
Western Kentucky 6.8% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.3 93.2 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 7.2% 7.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 92.8 0.1%
Missouri St. 6.4% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 93.6 0.0%
UTEP 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.4 93.2 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 96.2 0.0%
Florida International 3.5% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 96.5 0.0%
Delaware 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 98.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 29.2% 0.6% 29.0% 7.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 10.7% 0.3% 10.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 9.4% 0.2% 9.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 8.7% 0.2% 8.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 7.7% 0.4% 7.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 6.8% 0.2% 6.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 7.2% 0.2% 7.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 6.4% 0.2% 6.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 6.8% 0.2% 6.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 3.8% 0.3% 3.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 3.5% 0.2% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 1.3% 0.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.7 1.3
1st Round 99.3% 1.0 0.8 97.7 1.5 0.0
2nd Round 16.1% 0.2 83.9 16.0 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 3.6% 0.0 96.4 3.6
Elite Eight 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0