Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
71 Liberty 40.9%   12   22 - 6 13 - 5 22 - 6 13 - 5 +7.8      +2.0 116 +5.8 43 64.8 275 +8.2 71 +6.2 1
118 Middle Tennessee 11.4%   19 - 10 12 - 6 20 - 10 12 - 6 +3.0      +1.5 133 +1.4 126 70.2 118 +5.3 94 +5.4 3
119 Louisiana Tech 11.7%   17 - 11 9 - 9 17 - 12 9 - 9 +2.8      +1.7 130 +1.1 138 62.7 320 +2.9 123 +1.2 6
124 Jacksonville St. 11.0%   17 - 11 12 - 6 17 - 11 12 - 6 +2.3      +1.0 146 +1.3 130 63.4 306 +3.3 116 +5.4 2
125 New Mexico St. 8.6%   14 - 14 10 - 8 15 - 14 10 - 8 +2.1      -2.3 231 +4.4 65 63.2 310 +1.1 146 +2.7 5
137 Kennesaw St. 7.2%   15 - 13 10 - 8 15 - 14 10 - 8 +1.4      -1.0 204 +2.4 101 74.7 36 +2.5 131 +2.7 4
154 Western Kentucky 5.7%   15 - 14 8 - 10 16 - 14 8 - 10 +0.3      -1.7 217 +2.0 112 78.2 12 +1.7 138 +0.2 7
159 UTEP 2.2%   14 - 14 7 - 11 15 - 14 7 - 11 +0.1      -1.3 209 +1.4 127 71.0 100 +1.1 148 -1.2 8
170 Sam Houston St. 1.5%   10 - 18 6 - 12 10 - 19 6 - 12 -0.6      +2.2 110 -2.8 260 68.5 168 -1.5 182 -2.5 9
257 Florida International 0.0%   7 - 22 3 - 15 7 - 23 3 - 15 -5.2      -6.2 327 +1.1 136 71.2 93 -7.6 291 -7.1 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Liberty 1.0 100.0
Middle Tennessee 2.0 100.0
Louisiana Tech 6.0 100.0
Jacksonville St. 2.0 100.0
New Mexico St. 4.0 100.0
Kennesaw St. 4.0 100.0
Western Kentucky 7.0 100.0
UTEP 8.0 100.0
Sam Houston St. 9.0 100.0
Florida International 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Liberty 13 - 5 100.0
Middle Tennessee 12 - 6 100.0
Louisiana Tech 9 - 9 100.0
Jacksonville St. 12 - 6 100.0
New Mexico St. 10 - 8 100.0
Kennesaw St. 10 - 8 100.0
Western Kentucky 8 - 10 100.0
UTEP 7 - 11 100.0
Sam Houston St. 6 - 12 100.0
Florida International 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 100.0% 100.0
Middle Tennessee
Louisiana Tech
Jacksonville St.
New Mexico St.
Kennesaw St.
Western Kentucky
UTEP
Sam Houston St.
Florida International


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 40.9% 40.8% 0.1% 12   2.0 37.1 1.8 59.1 0.1%
Middle Tennessee 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0 6.0 5.0 0.4 0.0 88.6 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 2.9 7.3 1.6 0.0 88.3 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 2.2 6.2 2.5 0.0 89.1 0.0%
New Mexico St. 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.6 4.0 3.9 0.1 91.4 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 1.4 4.3 1.5 0.0 92.8 0.0%
Western Kentucky 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 4.1 0.9 94.3 0.0%
UTEP 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.3 1.6 0.3 97.9 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5 98.6 0.0%
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 40.9% 0.1% 40.8% 8.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 11.4% 0.0% 11.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 11.7% 0.0% 11.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 11.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 8.6% 0.0% 8.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 7.2% 0.0% 7.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 5.7% 0.0% 5.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 1.5% 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.4 99.7
2nd Round 12.1% 0.1 87.9 12.1
Sweet Sixteen 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0