Liberty
Conference USA
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#72
Expected Predictive Rating+13.8#37
Pace62.6#333
Improvement-0.2#190

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#115
First Shot+4.7#66
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#315
Layup/Dunks+3.9#55
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#11
Freethrows-3.1#342
Improvement+0.2#151

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#47
First Shot+5.6#33
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#202
Layups/Dunks-0.1#174
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#351
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#4
Freethrows+2.6#27
Improvement-0.4#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 1.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.0% 40.3% 29.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.0% 3.7% 1.2%
Average Seed 11.2 11.1 11.7
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.7% 97.9% 92.3%
Conference Champion 55.3% 61.6% 33.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.6%
First Four1.6% 1.8% 0.7%
First Round37.2% 39.4% 29.5%
Second Round10.5% 11.5% 6.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 3.0% 1.6%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 77.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 24 - 34 - 3
Quad 311 - 315 - 6
Quad 49 - 024 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 216   Valparaiso W 83-63 84%     1 - 0 +17.2 +11.0 +7.0
  Nov 09, 2024 142   @ Seattle W 66-64 65%     2 - 0 +5.9 -0.5 +6.5
  Nov 16, 2024 89   Florida Atlantic L 74-77 OT 56%     2 - 1 +3.3 -1.7 +5.1
  Nov 17, 2024 117   @ College of Charleston W 68-47 57%     3 - 1 +26.9 +3.4 +24.9
  Nov 22, 2024 283   Louisiana W 89-69 91%     4 - 1 +13.2 +19.5 -4.8
  Nov 24, 2024 82   Kansas St. W 67-65 54%     5 - 1 +8.9 +4.0 +5.1
  Nov 25, 2024 90   McNeese St. W 62-58 56%     6 - 1 +10.2 +2.4 +8.5
  Dec 07, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 89-52 99%     7 - 1 +10.9 +12.1 +1.5
  Dec 14, 2024 314   N.C. A&T W 83-74 95%     8 - 1 -2.3 +2.1 -4.6
  Dec 21, 2024 144   Texas Arlington W 79-56 83%     9 - 1 +20.6 +5.5 +15.9
  Jan 02, 2025 120   Western Kentucky W 76-68 78%    
  Jan 04, 2025 128   Middle Tennessee W 72-63 81%    
  Jan 09, 2025 134   @ Sam Houston St. W 72-69 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 101   @ Louisiana Tech W 66-65 50%    
  Jan 16, 2025 137   UTEP W 72-62 81%    
  Jan 18, 2025 199   New Mexico St. W 72-59 88%    
  Jan 25, 2025 259   @ Florida International W 73-63 82%    
  Jan 30, 2025 193   @ Kennesaw St. W 76-70 72%    
  Feb 01, 2025 149   @ Jacksonville St. W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 06, 2025 101   Louisiana Tech W 68-62 71%    
  Feb 08, 2025 134   Sam Houston St. W 75-66 81%    
  Feb 13, 2025 199   @ New Mexico St. W 69-62 73%    
  Feb 15, 2025 137   @ UTEP W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 259   Florida International W 76-60 93%    
  Feb 27, 2025 149   Jacksonville St. W 73-62 83%    
  Mar 02, 2025 193   Kennesaw St. W 79-67 87%    
  Mar 06, 2025 128   @ Middle Tennessee W 69-66 61%    
  Mar 08, 2025 120   @ Western Kentucky W 73-71 57%    
Projected Record 22 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.4 7.8 12.8 13.6 11.0 5.8 1.6 55.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 6.7 6.9 3.6 0.9 0.1 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.5 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.3 0.2 3.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.5 5.8 9.3 12.7 15.8 16.5 14.5 11.1 5.8 1.6 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 100.0% 5.8    5.8 0.0
16-2 99.1% 11.0    10.7 0.4
15-3 93.9% 13.6    11.8 1.8 0.0
14-4 77.6% 12.8    8.7 3.7 0.4 0.0
13-5 49.4% 7.8    3.6 3.5 0.7 0.0
12-6 18.6% 2.4    0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-7 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 55.3% 55.3 42.6 10.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 84.2% 62.9% 21.3% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 57.3%
17-1 5.8% 70.0% 57.9% 12.1% 9.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.8 0.2 1.7 28.7%
16-2 11.1% 57.0% 52.1% 4.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 4.4 1.1 4.8 10.3%
15-3 14.5% 47.1% 45.6% 1.5% 11.4 0.0 0.3 3.8 2.7 0.0 7.7 2.7%
14-4 16.5% 39.4% 38.7% 0.7% 11.6 0.0 2.6 3.8 0.1 10.0 1.1%
13-5 15.8% 33.5% 33.4% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 1.1 4.1 0.1 10.5 0.1%
12-6 12.7% 27.7% 27.7% 0.0% 12.0 0.4 2.7 0.4 0.0 9.2 0.1%
11-7 9.3% 23.8% 23.8% 12.1 0.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.1
10-8 5.8% 17.0% 17.0% 12.2 0.0 0.7 0.2 4.8
9-9 3.5% 16.5% 16.5% 12.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 2.9
8-10 2.0% 11.5% 11.5% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8
7-11 0.8% 7.2% 7.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-12 0.3% 2.7% 2.7% 13.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 38.0% 36.0% 1.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.9 14.5 17.6 1.4 0.1 62.0 3.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 5.7 0.6 2.4 8.6 19.4 22.0 15.1 13.8 5.5 6.3 3.9 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 72.7% 9.5 2.7 7.3 10.9 10.0 9.1 32.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 54.7% 9.3 7.5 7.5 11.3 3.8 24.5