Liberty
Conference USA
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#71
Expected Predictive Rating+8.2#71
Pace64.8#275
Improvement-0.6#218

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#116
First Shot+4.6#65
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#317
Layup/Dunks+4.6#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#357
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#19
Freethrows-3.2#346
Improvement+0.5#163

Defense
Total Defense+5.8#43
First Shot+6.7#21
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#268
Layups/Dunks-1.0#213
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#347
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#1
Freethrows+3.0#21
Improvement-1.1#244
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.9% 51.9% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Average Seed 12.0 12.0 11.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round40.8% 51.8% 0.0%
Second Round8.1% 10.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 2.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 24 - 24 - 2
Quad 312 - 316 - 6
Quad 48 - 124 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 208   Valparaiso W 83-63 84%     1 - 0 +17.4 +11.2 +6.9
  Nov 09, 2024 147   @ Seattle W 66-64 66%     2 - 0 +5.6 +2.6 +3.2
  Nov 16, 2024 107   Florida Atlantic L 74-77 OT 65%     2 - 1 +0.8 -2.4 +3.4
  Nov 17, 2024 148   @ College of Charleston W 68-47 66%     3 - 1 +24.6 +2.4 +23.7
  Nov 22, 2024 305   Louisiana W 89-69 93%     4 - 1 +11.6 +20.9 -7.8
  Nov 24, 2024 59   Kansas St. W 67-65 42%     5 - 1 +11.8 +7.7 +4.3
  Nov 25, 2024 69   McNeese St. W 62-58 49%     6 - 1 +12.0 +2.3 +10.3
  Dec 07, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 89-52 99.8%    7 - 1 +6.0 +9.3 -0.7
  Dec 14, 2024 328   N.C. A&T W 83-74 96%     8 - 1 -4.3 +3.1 -7.6
  Dec 21, 2024 216   Texas Arlington W 79-56 89%     9 - 1 +17.2 +4.6 +13.4
  Jan 02, 2025 154   Western Kentucky L 70-71 83%     9 - 2 0 - 1 -3.5 -4.4 +1.0
  Jan 04, 2025 118   Middle Tennessee W 73-63 77%     10 - 2 1 - 1 +10.2 +3.0 +7.6
  Jan 09, 2025 170   @ Sam Houston St. W 76-68 71%     11 - 2 2 - 1 +10.2 +2.0 +8.2
  Jan 11, 2025 119   @ Louisiana Tech L 74-79 59%     11 - 3 2 - 2 +0.5 +3.2 -2.7
  Jan 16, 2025 159   UTEP L 70-72 84%     11 - 4 2 - 3 -4.6 -1.4 -3.3
  Jan 18, 2025 125   New Mexico St. W 68-60 79%     12 - 4 3 - 3 +7.3 +1.9 +5.9
  Jan 25, 2025 257   @ Florida International W 82-59 83%     13 - 4 4 - 3 +20.6 +16.2 +5.6
  Jan 30, 2025 137   @ Kennesaw St. W 76-68 64%     14 - 4 5 - 3 +12.2 +8.7 +3.7
  Feb 01, 2025 124   @ Jacksonville St. L 61-72 61%     14 - 5 5 - 4 -6.0 -3.4 -3.6
  Feb 06, 2025 119   Louisiana Tech W 77-53 77%     15 - 5 6 - 4 +24.0 +10.5 +15.6
  Feb 08, 2025 170   Sam Houston St. W 64-61 85%     16 - 5 7 - 4 -0.3 -7.8 +7.7
  Feb 13, 2025 125   @ New Mexico St. W 64-54 61%     17 - 5 8 - 4 +14.9 +2.5 +13.2
  Feb 15, 2025 159   @ UTEP W 76-69 68%     18 - 5 9 - 4 +9.9 +9.7 +0.5
  Feb 22, 2025 257   Florida International W 58-45 92%     19 - 5 10 - 4 +5.1 -9.0 +15.4
  Feb 27, 2025 124   Jacksonville St. W 59-55 78%     20 - 5 11 - 4 +3.5 -5.9 +9.9
  Mar 02, 2025 137   Kennesaw St. L 80-85 81%     20 - 6 11 - 5 -6.3 +5.3 -11.5
  Mar 06, 2025 118   @ Middle Tennessee W 86-81 58%     21 - 6 12 - 5 +10.7 +12.6 -2.1
  Mar 08, 2025 154   @ Western Kentucky W 90-61 68%     22 - 6 13 - 5 +32.0 +21.7 +10.7
Projected Record 22 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 100.0    100.0
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 40.9% 40.8% 0.1% 12.0 2.0 37.1 1.8 59.1 0.1%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 40.9% 40.8% 0.1% 12.0 2.0 37.1 1.8 59.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 40.8% 100.0% 12.0 4.8 90.8 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 16.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 21.2% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0
Lose Out 21.2% 0.2% 11.3 0.1 0.0