Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.6 #94
Expected Predictive Rating +10.1 #59
Pace 62.8 #333
Improvement -0.5 #212

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #60 A+ F A+ F A+
Defense #169 C F C+ A C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% #4 1.27 #70 +8.9 #5
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #364 0.64 #324 -5.5 #364
Three Pointers 44% #133 1.17 #21 +4.7 #40
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #16 +8.2 #15
Freethrows 14.3 #324 70% #278 10.0 #325
Second Chance 20.6% #360 1.02 #210 0.21 #356
Turnovers 12.7% #16
Total Offense +5.6 #60

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #215 0.98 #20 +3.9 #60
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #149 0.91 #356 -1.9 #322
Three Pointers 41% #174 1.06 #245 -1.1 #231
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #152 +0.9 #151
Freethrows 12.3 #9 74% #223 9.0 #13
Second Chance 32.8% #276 1.20 #339 0.39 #332
Turnovers 17.4% #116
Total Defense +0.0 #169

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 5.0% #1 -0.3% #137
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.4% #39 -1.3% #158
Possession Length 18.5 #290 18.4 #322
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #302 0.12 #35
Improvement -1.0 #237 +0.6 #148

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.9% 34.1% 29.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.9 12.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 92.8% 93.7% 79.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round33.8% 34.1% 29.6%
Second Round4.8% 4.9% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Home) - 93.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 2
Quad 310 - 412 - 6
Quad 411 - 124 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 164 College of Charleston W 90 - 75 80% +8  1 - 0 +12 +26 A+ A A+ -12 D- F B+
 Sun, Nov 9 95 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 68 62% +15  2 - 0 +23 +20 A+ D A+ +3 A+ F B-
 Mon, Nov 24 204 Vermont W 79 - 73 79% +10  3 - 0 +3 +7 A+ F C -3 C+ F B
 Tue, Nov 25 157 Towson L 69 - 72 70% +1  3 - 1 -3 +6 B+ F A+ -10 D- F C
 Wed, Nov 26 119 Bradley L 64 - 74 61% -10  3 - 2 -7 -2 B- F C+ -6 D- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. W 92 - 50 99% +34  4 - 2 +19 +11 A+ D D+ +9 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Dec 10 26 @North Carolina St. L 45 - 85 12% -25  4 - 3 -22 -18 F F F -5 D A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 73 @Dayton W 64 - 61 31% -2  5 - 3 +14 +10 A F A+ +4 A+ D+ B-
 Sun, Dec 28 192 @Florida International W 97 - 94 OT 67% -0  6 - 3 1 - 0 +4 +16 A+ F A+ -12 C F B
 Fri, Jan 2 150 Kennesaw St. W 81 - 73 78% +8  7 - 3 2 - 0 +6 +3 A+ F C- +3 A+ F C
 Sun, Jan 4 216 Jacksonville St. W 78 - 69 87% +4  8 - 3 3 - 0 +3 +10 C C- A+ -7 B+ F F
 Thu, Jan 8 228 @Louisiana Tech W 72 - 56 73% +8  9 - 3 4 - 0 +15 +13 B+ D+ A+ +4 C- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 124 @Sam Houston St. W 82 - 74 50% +5  10 - 3 5 - 0 +13 +10 A+ F C +3 C+ B- A+
 Thu, Jan 15 133 New Mexico St. W 73 - 71 75% +6  11 - 3 6 - 0 +1 +13 A+ F A+ -12 D+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 17 256 UTEP W 80 - 69 89% +7  12 - 3 7 - 0 +3 +14 A+ F A+ -10 F A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 162 @Western Kentucky W 76 - 69 61% +5  13 - 3 8 - 0 +10 +11 A+ D+ B- -1 C- F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 295 Delaware W 76 - 60 94%
 Thu, Jan 29 128 @Middle Tennessee W 71 - 70 53%
 Wed, Feb 4 295 @Delaware W 73 - 63 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 179 Missouri St. W 75 - 65 82%
 Wed, Feb 11 133 @New Mexico St. W 73 - 72 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 256 @UTEP W 74 - 66 76%
 Thu, Feb 19 192 Florida International W 83 - 72 84%
 Sat, Feb 21 162 Western Kentucky W 80 - 71 79%
 Thu, Feb 26 150 @Kennesaw St. W 80 - 78 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 216 @Jacksonville St. W 72 - 66 70%
 Thu, Mar 5 228 Louisiana Tech W 71 - 59 87%
 Sat, Mar 7 124 Sam Houston St. W 79 - 73 72%
Totals 22 - 6 17 - 3 +6 +6 A+ F A+ +0 C F C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.8 9.5 18.3 23.0 21.4 13.2 4.2 92.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 5.2 11.1 18.9 23.1 21.4 13.2 4.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 4.2    4.2
19-1 100.0% 13.2    13.2
18-2 100.0% 21.4    21.3 0.1
17-3 99.6% 23.0    22.4 0.6
16-4 96.8% 18.3    16.6 1.7 0.0
15-5 85.6% 9.5    6.6 2.7 0.2 0.0
14-6 53.6% 2.8    1.0 1.3 0.5 0.0
13-7 17.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.7% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 92.8% 92.8 85.4 6.5 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 4.2% 47.8% 46.8% 1.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 0.3 2.2 1.8%
19-1 13.2% 44.7% 44.5% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 2.9 2.9 0.1 7.3 0.3%
18-2 21.4% 38.0% 38.0% 11.8 2.1 5.5 0.6 0.0 13.3
17-3 23.1% 33.6% 33.6% 12.1 0.9 5.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 15.3
16-4 18.9% 29.5% 29.5% 12.3 0.3 3.5 1.7 0.1 13.4
15-5 11.1% 26.0% 26.0% 12.4 0.0 1.7 1.1 0.1 8.2
14-6 5.2% 22.7% 22.7% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 4.0
13-7 2.0% 14.3% 14.3% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.7
12-8 0.7% 12.7% 12.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-9 0.2% 9.1% 9.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
10-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 33.9% 33.8% 0.1% 11.9 66.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 10.9 0.3 1.8 3.6 15.3 65.1 14.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 1.3% 11.0 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 2.6% 11.0 2.6