Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#98
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#150
Pace64.4#311
Improvement-3.9#359

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#75
First Shot+3.7#75
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#142
Layup/Dunks+9.0#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#365
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#62
Freethrows-3.5#339
Improvement-3.3#363

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#148
First Shot+3.6#65
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#329
Layups/Dunks-0.2#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#29
Freethrows+1.8#79
Improvement-0.6#239
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.2% 26.4% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.4 13.2
.500 or above 93.2% 93.4% 70.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.6% 93.7% 81.8%
Conference Champion 36.1% 36.2% 25.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round26.2% 26.3% 10.2%
Second Round4.6% 4.6% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 0.9% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 22 - 4
Quad 37 - 59 - 9
Quad 411 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 180 College of Charleston W 90-75 81%     1 - 0 +10.6 +24.7 -12.3
  Sun, Nov 9 126 Florida Atlantic W 88-68 70%     2 - 0 +19.7 +16.0 +4.3
  Mon, Nov 24 189 Vermont W 79-73 75%     3 - 0 +3.9 +4.9 -0.7
  Tue, Nov 25 129 Towson L 69-72 60%     3 - 1 -0.6 +4.9 -5.8
  Wed, Nov 26 124 Bradley L 64-74 58%     3 - 2 -7.1 -0.8 -7.2
  Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. W 84-59 99%    
  Wed, Dec 10 35 @North Carolina St. L 73-84 15%    
  Sat, Dec 20 67 @Dayton L 69-75 27%    
  Sun, Dec 28 207 @Florida International W 77-72 67%    
  Fri, Jan 2 162 Kennesaw St. W 83-75 78%    
  Sun, Jan 4 238 Jacksonville St. W 73-60 87%    
  Thu, Jan 8 188 @Louisiana Tech W 69-65 65%    
  Sat, Jan 10 133 @Sam Houston St. W 76-75 51%    
  Thu, Jan 15 116 New Mexico St. W 71-66 67%    
  Sat, Jan 17 241 UTEP W 74-61 87%    
  Wed, Jan 21 123 @Western Kentucky L 76-77 46%    
  Sat, Jan 24 287 Delaware W 79-64 91%    
  Wed, Jan 28 138 @Middle Tennessee W 74-73 51%    
  Wed, Feb 4 287 @Delaware W 76-67 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 242 Missouri St. W 74-61 87%    
  Wed, Feb 11 116 @New Mexico St. L 68-69 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 241 @UTEP W 71-64 71%    
  Thu, Feb 19 207 Florida International W 80-69 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 123 Western Kentucky W 79-74 67%    
  Thu, Feb 26 162 @Kennesaw St. W 80-78 59%    
  Sat, Feb 28 238 @Jacksonville St. W 70-63 72%    
  Thu, Mar 5 188 Louisiana Tech W 72-62 81%    
  Sat, Mar 7 133 Sam Houston St. W 79-73 70%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.3 8.5 9.2 6.5 3.2 0.9 36.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.1 6.4 3.6 1.0 0.1 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.1 4.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 4.3 3.0 0.6 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.7 5.1 7.3 9.6 11.8 13.3 13.4 12.3 10.1 6.6 3.2 0.9 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 100.0% 3.2    3.2 0.0
18-2 98.1% 6.5    6.1 0.4
17-3 90.4% 9.2    7.6 1.5 0.0
16-4 69.2% 8.5    5.7 2.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 39.4% 5.3    2.3 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 17.5% 2.3    0.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 36.1% 36.1 26.3 7.7 1.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 69.9% 66.0% 3.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 11.5%
19-1 3.2% 57.1% 56.3% 0.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.4 1.9%
18-2 6.6% 48.8% 48.1% 0.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.8 0.2 3.4 1.3%
17-3 10.1% 42.8% 42.8% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.8 2.6 0.9 0.1 5.8 0.1%
16-4 12.3% 35.5% 35.5% 12.4 0.0 0.3 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.9
15-5 13.4% 29.9% 29.9% 12.6 0.1 1.8 1.8 0.3 9.4
14-6 13.3% 22.7% 22.7% 12.9 0.0 0.9 1.6 0.6 0.0 10.3
13-7 11.8% 18.0% 18.0% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 9.7
12-8 9.6% 14.2% 14.2% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.3
11-9 7.3% 10.8% 10.8% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.5
10-10 5.1% 7.2% 7.2% 14.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.7
9-11 2.7% 4.9% 4.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 2.6
8-12 1.8% 2.8% 2.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
7-13 1.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0
6-14 0.5% 0.5
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.2% 26.1% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.6 10.6 8.0 2.8 0.5 0.1 73.8 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.9 9.5 38.1 19.0 19.0 4.8 9.5