Gonzaga
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+21.5#6
Expected Predictive Rating+26.8#6
Pace74.3#59
Improvement-1.4#270

Offense
Total Offense+12.6#5
First Shot+10.6#5
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#59
Layup/Dunks+9.6#4
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#135
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#199
Freethrows+0.8#122
Improvement+2.1#50

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#12
First Shot+6.0#31
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#18
Layups/Dunks+8.0#11
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#305
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#186
Freethrows-0.2#198
Improvement-3.4#349
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.4% 3.4% 0.3%
#1 Seed 22.4% 22.6% 5.0%
Top 2 Seed 48.1% 48.4% 18.3%
Top 4 Seed 83.8% 84.1% 61.8%
Top 6 Seed 97.0% 97.1% 87.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.9 2.9 4.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 94.6% 94.6% 86.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round95.3% 95.4% 87.6%
Sweet Sixteen70.0% 70.1% 57.5%
Elite Eight42.0% 42.2% 27.0%
Final Four23.0% 23.0% 15.5%
Championship Game11.9% 11.9% 7.8%
National Champion5.7% 5.7% 2.5%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Away) - 98.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b4 - 06 - 2
Quad 28 - 014 - 2
Quad 38 - 022 - 2
Quad 48 - 031 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 327 Texas Southern W 98-43 99.5%    1 - 0 +42.1 +16.2 +24.0
  Sat, Nov 8 45 Oklahoma W 83-68 89%     2 - 0 +23.3 +7.0 +15.6
  Tue, Nov 11 36 Creighton W 90-63 85%     3 - 0 +37.2 +18.3 +17.8
  Fri, Nov 14 71 @Arizona St. W 77-65 84%     4 - 0 +22.8 +8.0 +14.8
  Mon, Nov 17 319 Southern Utah W 122-50 99%     5 - 0 +59.6 +26.9 +22.3
  Mon, Nov 24 15 Alabama W 95-85 65%     6 - 0 +27.5 +18.7 +7.9
  Tue, Nov 25 94 Maryland W 100-61 92%     7 - 0 +44.9 +30.0 +14.8
  Wed, Nov 26 1 Michigan L 61-101 31%     7 - 1 -13.2 -5.6 -2.4
  Fri, Dec 5 20 Kentucky W 94-59 70%     8 - 1 +51.2 +28.6 +22.4
  Sun, Dec 7 350 North Florida W 109-58 99.7%    9 - 1 +35.4 +15.0 +15.6
  Sat, Dec 13 30 UCLA W 82-72 75%     10 - 1 +24.4 +20.3 +4.8
  Wed, Dec 17 225 Campbell W 98-70 99%     11 - 1 +21.0 +6.6 +10.2
  Sun, Dec 21 56 Oregon W 91-82 87%     12 - 1 +18.2 +24.2 -5.8
  Sun, Dec 28 262 @Pepperdine W 87-63 99%    
  Tue, Dec 30 260 @San Diego W 94-70 99%    
  Fri, Jan 2 112 Seattle W 87-66 97%    
  Sun, Jan 4 123 Loyola Marymount W 85-63 98%    
  Thu, Jan 8 86 Santa Clara W 89-71 95%    
  Thu, Jan 15 149 @Washington St. W 88-70 95%    
  Sat, Jan 17 112 @Seattle W 84-69 92%    
  Wed, Jan 21 262 Pepperdine W 90-60 99.8%   
  Sat, Jan 24 95 San Francisco W 86-67 96%    
  Sat, Jan 31 44 St. Mary's W 82-69 88%    
  Wed, Feb 4 256 @Portland W 92-68 98%    
  Sat, Feb 7 154 @Oregon St. W 84-66 95%    
  Tue, Feb 10 149 Washington St. W 91-67 98%    
  Sat, Feb 14 86 @Santa Clara W 86-74 86%    
  Wed, Feb 18 95 @San Francisco W 83-70 88%    
  Sat, Feb 21 138 Pacific W 88-65 98%    
  Wed, Feb 25 256 Portland W 95-65 99.7%   
  Sat, Feb 28 44 @St. Mary's W 79-72 73%    
Projected Record 29 - 2 17 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 4.7 17.1 35.5 36.5 94.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 1.4 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 6.8 18.5 35.5 36.5 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 36.5    36.5
17-1 100.0% 35.5    34.3 1.2
16-2 92.4% 17.1    13.9 3.2 0.0
15-3 69.0% 4.7    2.8 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 36.2% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 94.6% 94.6 87.7 6.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 36.5% 100.0% 85.4% 14.6% 1.7 17.4 13.7 4.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 35.5% 100.0% 80.0% 20.0% 2.7 4.8 11.0 11.4 6.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 18.5% 100.0% 73.7% 26.3% 4.2 0.2 0.9 3.8 6.9 4.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-3 6.8% 100.0% 68.2% 31.8% 5.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.3 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.0% 99.7% 59.6% 40.0% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
13-5 0.6% 99.4% 55.9% 43.5% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.7%
12-6 0.1% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 79.4% 20.6% 2.9 22.4 25.7 20.0 15.8 8.7 4.5 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 31.2% 100.0% 1.6 52.1 37.5 9.4 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.6% 100.0% 2.2 24.0 38.6 27.2 9.5 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8% 100.0% 2.4 18.9 37.1 31.0 12.4 0.4 0.2