Gonzaga
West Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.8#9
Expected Predictive Rating+12.9#42
Pace74.1#48
Improvement-3.3#312

Offense
Total Offense+12.1#8
First Shot+9.7#12
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#45
Layup/Dunks+7.9#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#187
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#191
Freethrows+2.4#48
Improvement-2.1#280

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#33
First Shot+4.4#58
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#28
Layups/Dunks+0.0#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#184
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#77
Freethrows+1.6#75
Improvement-1.2#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.0% 2.9% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 22.5% 32.1% 4.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.9% 100.0% 93.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.8% n/a 93.8%
Average Seed 7.5 7.0 8.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.7%
First Round97.8% 100.0% 93.6%
Second Round72.5% 75.7% 66.4%
Sweet Sixteen30.9% 34.3% 24.4%
Elite Eight16.8% 18.2% 14.1%
Final Four7.7% 8.1% 6.8%
Championship Game3.2% 3.4% 2.8%
National Champion1.0% 1.1% 0.9%

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 6
Quad 26 - 210 - 8
Quad 36 - 016 - 8
Quad 49 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 27   Baylor W 101-63 74%     1 - 0 +50.0 +31.9 +17.9
  Nov 10, 2024 73   Arizona St. W 88-80 90%     2 - 0 +12.8 +15.5 -2.9
  Nov 15, 2024 237   Umass Lowell W 113-54 98%     3 - 0 +52.1 +16.7 +26.4
  Nov 18, 2024 54   @ San Diego St. W 80-67 70%     4 - 0 +26.5 +18.1 +8.6
  Nov 20, 2024 294   Long Beach St. W 84-41 99%     5 - 0 +32.6 +14.2 +22.9
  Nov 27, 2024 43   West Virginia L 78-86 OT 75%     5 - 1 +3.8 +7.6 -3.2
  Nov 28, 2024 42   Indiana W 89-73 75%     6 - 1 +27.9 +17.5 +9.4
  Nov 29, 2024 140   Davidson W 90-65 94%     7 - 1 +26.1 +14.2 +11.3
  Dec 07, 2024 14   Kentucky L 89-90 OT 55%     7 - 2 +16.6 +16.4 +0.2
  Dec 14, 2024 28   Connecticut L 71-77 66%     7 - 3 +8.5 +3.5 +4.8
  Dec 18, 2024 177   Nicholls St. W 102-72 97%     8 - 3 +26.2 +17.3 +6.0
  Dec 21, 2024 224   Bucknell W 86-65 98%     9 - 3 +14.8 +2.9 +10.0
  Dec 28, 2024 24   UCLA L 62-65 62%     9 - 4 +12.6 +1.8 +10.6
  Dec 30, 2024 217   @ Pepperdine W 89-82 95%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +6.7 +8.8 -2.6
  Jan 02, 2025 273   Portland W 81-50 99%     11 - 4 2 - 0 +22.0 +2.1 +20.2
  Jan 04, 2025 157   @ Loyola Marymount W 96-68 92%     12 - 4 3 - 0 +31.0 +22.3 +7.4
  Jan 08, 2025 312   San Diego W 93-80 99%     13 - 4 4 - 0 +1.2 +9.8 -9.3
  Jan 11, 2025 120   Washington St. W 88-75 95%     14 - 4 5 - 0 +12.8 +13.7 -0.8
  Jan 16, 2025 89   @ Oregon St. L 89-97 OT 83%     14 - 5 5 - 1 +0.6 +8.9 -7.6
  Jan 18, 2025 56   Santa Clara L 99-103 86%     14 - 6 5 - 2 +3.3 +16.4 -12.6
  Jan 25, 2025 273   @ Portland W 105-62 97%     15 - 6 6 - 2 +39.5 +29.3 +10.7
  Jan 28, 2025 89   Oregon St. W 98-60 92%     16 - 6 7 - 2 +41.1 +30.6 +13.4
  Feb 01, 2025 26   @ St. Mary's L 58-62 55%     16 - 7 7 - 3 +13.6 +3.8 +9.2
  Feb 06, 2025 157   Loyola Marymount W 73-53 97%     17 - 7 8 - 3 +17.5 +6.7 +12.3
  Feb 08, 2025 292   @ Pacific W 78-61 98%     18 - 7 9 - 3 +12.2 +5.2 +7.5
  Feb 13, 2025 67   San Francisco W 88-77 89%     19 - 7 10 - 3 +16.5 +17.7 -1.4
  Feb 15, 2025 217   Pepperdine W 107-55 98%     20 - 7 11 - 3 +46.2 +20.8 +21.0
  Feb 19, 2025 120   @ Washington St. W 84-63 89%     21 - 7 12 - 3 +26.3 +16.1 +11.3
  Feb 22, 2025 26   St. Mary's L 67-74 74%     21 - 8 12 - 4 +5.0 +9.9 -5.7
  Feb 25, 2025 56   @ Santa Clara W 95-76 72%     22 - 8 13 - 4 +31.8 +15.2 +14.1
  Mar 01, 2025 67   @ San Francisco W 95-75 77%     23 - 8 14 - 4 +31.0 +29.6 +1.6
  Mar 10, 2025 67   San Francisco W 85-76 84%     24 - 8 +17.2 +10.2 +6.3
  Mar 11, 2025 26   St. Mary's W 72-68 65%    
Projected Record 25 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 97.9% 65.9% 32.0% 7.5 0.3 1.7 6.1 14.5 24.1 29.6 16.4 5.0 0.3 2.1 93.8%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.9% 65.9% 32.0% 7.5 0.3 1.7 6.1 14.5 24.1 29.6 16.4 5.0 0.3 2.1 93.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 65.9% 100.0% 7.0 0.4 2.5 8.8 20.4 31.3 27.7 8.3 0.6 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 34.1% 93.8% 8.4 0.2 0.8 3.0 10.1 33.4 32.1 13.4 0.8