Gonzaga
West Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.7#11
Expected Predictive Rating+11.1#52
Pace73.7#53
Improvement-6.6#356

Offense
Total Offense+12.1#4
First Shot+9.7#6
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#40
Layup/Dunks+7.9#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#187
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#195
Freethrows+2.4#51
Improvement-3.1#328

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#45
First Shot+3.4#78
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#28
Layups/Dunks-0.3#176
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#197
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#95
Freethrows+1.5#82
Improvement-3.5#337
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 4.6% 4.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 17.8% 18.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 31.8% 32.7% 7.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.3% 93.6% 86.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.8% 85.3% 74.6%
Average Seed 7.2 7.1 8.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 18.7% 19.2% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.6% 3.5% 7.9%
First Round92.3% 92.6% 83.2%
Second Round67.7% 68.3% 51.1%
Sweet Sixteen33.4% 34.0% 17.4%
Elite Eight17.9% 18.3% 9.0%
Final Four8.6% 8.8% 4.1%
Championship Game3.8% 3.9% 0.8%
National Champion1.5% 1.6% 0.3%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 7
Quad 26 - 210 - 8
Quad 35 - 015 - 9
Quad 49 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 20   Baylor W 101-63 67%     1 - 0 +51.3 +31.6 +19.5
  Nov 10, 2024 61   Arizona St. W 88-80 85%     2 - 0 +14.5 +18.4 -4.1
  Nov 15, 2024 203   Umass Lowell W 113-54 97%     3 - 0 +54.4 +17.8 +27.6
  Nov 18, 2024 52   @ San Diego St. W 80-67 69%     4 - 0 +25.7 +18.2 +7.6
  Nov 20, 2024 305   Long Beach St. W 84-41 99%     5 - 0 +32.3 +13.2 +23.6
  Nov 27, 2024 39   West Virginia L 78-86 OT 71%     5 - 1 +3.9 +6.6 -2.0
  Nov 28, 2024 53   Indiana W 89-73 77%     6 - 1 +26.1 +15.5 +9.7
  Nov 29, 2024 126   Davidson W 90-65 92%     7 - 1 +27.1 +13.6 +12.8
  Dec 07, 2024 22   Kentucky L 89-90 OT 58%     7 - 2 +14.7 +14.7 +0.1
  Dec 14, 2024 24   Connecticut L 71-77 61%     7 - 3 +9.0 +3.1 +5.7
  Dec 18, 2024 197   Nicholls St. W 102-72 97%     8 - 3 +25.8 +17.0 +5.9
  Dec 21, 2024 251   Bucknell W 86-65 98%     9 - 3 +13.3 +3.5 +7.8
  Dec 28, 2024 29   UCLA L 62-65 63%     9 - 4 +11.3 +1.4 +9.8
  Dec 30, 2024 217   @ Pepperdine W 89-82 95%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +6.3 +10.6 -4.7
  Jan 02, 2025 299   Portland W 81-50 99%     11 - 4 2 - 0 +20.8 +2.0 +19.2
  Jan 04, 2025 136   @ Loyola Marymount W 96-68 90%     12 - 4 3 - 0 +32.0 +22.8 +7.9
  Jan 08, 2025 311   San Diego W 93-80 99%     13 - 4 4 - 0 +1.9 +11.3 -10.1
  Jan 11, 2025 103   Washington St. W 88-75 92%     14 - 4 5 - 0 +15.0 +16.4 -1.2
  Jan 16, 2025 76   @ Oregon St. L 89-97 OT 77%     14 - 5 5 - 1 +2.0 +11.3 -8.6
  Jan 18, 2025 64   Santa Clara L 99-103 86%     14 - 6 5 - 2 +2.0 +15.5 -13.0
  Jan 25, 2025 299   @ Portland W 105-62 97%     15 - 6 6 - 2 +37.8 +29.0 +9.4
  Jan 28, 2025 76   Oregon St. W 98-60 88%     16 - 6 7 - 2 +43.0 +33.3 +12.7
  Feb 01, 2025 31   @ St. Mary's L 58-62 54%     16 - 7 7 - 3 +12.6 +2.4 +9.7
  Feb 06, 2025 136   Loyola Marymount W 85-66 96%    
  Feb 08, 2025 302   @ Pacific W 89-66 98%    
  Feb 13, 2025 72   San Francisco W 84-71 89%    
  Feb 15, 2025 217   Pepperdine W 91-68 99%    
  Feb 19, 2025 103   @ Washington St. W 87-76 83%    
  Feb 22, 2025 31   St. Mary's W 75-69 73%    
  Feb 27, 2025 64   @ Santa Clara W 85-78 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 72   @ San Francisco W 82-74 74%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 5.5 12.9 18.7 1st
2nd 0.0 2.2 19.8 32.7 16.3 71.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.9 2.9 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.6 7.8 23.0 38.2 29.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 44.2% 12.9    4.7 8.2
14-4 14.3% 5.5    0.8 3.6 1.1 0.0
13-5 1.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.7% 18.7 5.5 11.9 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 29.2% 99.2% 65.9% 33.3% 4.4 0.9 3.7 6.5 6.3 3.4 2.9 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.6%
14-4 38.2% 96.6% 57.8% 38.8% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 5.5 8.2 9.7 7.3 3.4 0.6 1.3 91.9%
13-5 23.0% 88.6% 48.3% 40.3% 9.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 4.1 6.1 6.9 1.6 2.6 78.0%
12-6 7.8% 78.7% 39.1% 39.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.3 2.6 1.5 1.7 65.0%
11-7 1.6% 52.8% 28.8% 23.9% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 33.6%
10-8 0.2% 65.0% 45.0% 20.0% 10.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 36.4%
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 93.3% 56.0% 37.3% 7.2 0.9 3.7 6.5 6.7 5.2 8.8 12.4 16.2 15.4 13.5 4.1 0.0 6.7 84.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 19.2% 100.0% 3.3 4.7 19.2 33.3 29.7 10.4 2.2 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.3% 98.6% 6.4 0.8 6.6 16.0 26.4 28.6 14.4 5.1 0.6 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.6% 95.9% 6.9 0.6 3.3 9.9 22.6 28.9 22.6 6.3 1.4 0.3