Massachusetts
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#152
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#193
Pace76.4#22
Improvement+5.0#16

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#207
First Shot-2.8#259
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#88
Layup/Dunks+2.3#100
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#193
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#331
Freethrows+0.6#137
Improvement+0.4#159

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#123
First Shot+1.9#114
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#205
Layups/Dunks-0.3#175
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#12
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#194
Freethrows-0.7#240
Improvement+4.6#12
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.3% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.9 14.7
.500 or above 9.4% 15.6% 3.7%
.500 or above in Conference 55.0% 71.5% 39.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.9% 1.3% 0.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Home) - 48.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 52 - 8
Quad 36 - 68 - 15
Quad 46 - 413 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 357   New Hampshire W 103-74 93%     1 - 0 +12.7 +11.7 -2.5
  Nov 08, 2024 39   @ West Virginia L 69-75 11%     1 - 1 +8.4 +3.3 +5.3
  Nov 13, 2024 113   Louisiana Tech L 66-76 40%     1 - 2 -6.8 -5.6 -1.2
  Nov 16, 2024 174   Hofstra L 71-75 OT 64%     1 - 3 -7.0 -1.5 -5.4
  Nov 23, 2024 125   Temple L 80-87 45%     1 - 4 -4.9 +2.9 -7.4
  Nov 24, 2024 82   Florida St. L 59-92 26%     1 - 5 -25.7 -11.6 -13.0
  Nov 27, 2024 241   @ Harvard W 62-54 61%     2 - 5 +5.9 -6.1 +12.5
  Dec 01, 2024 344   NJIT W 80-68 91%     3 - 5 -2.3 +6.9 -8.7
  Dec 04, 2024 209   Central Connecticut St. L 69-73 71%     3 - 6 -9.0 -1.5 -7.6
  Dec 07, 2024 203   Umass Lowell L 83-96 69%     3 - 7 -17.6 -7.4 -8.2
  Dec 18, 2024 206   Northeastern W 77-72 70%     4 - 7 +0.3 -5.5 +5.3
  Dec 21, 2024 61   Arizona St. L 62-78 22%     4 - 8 -7.0 -5.8 -0.9
  Dec 31, 2024 86   @ Saint Joseph's L 72-81 21%     4 - 9 0 - 1 +0.2 +2.8 -2.3
  Jan 04, 2025 220   Richmond L 64-72 73%     4 - 10 0 - 2 -13.7 -6.7 -7.5
  Jan 08, 2025 80   Dayton W 76-72 34%     5 - 10 1 - 2 +8.8 +3.6 +5.3
  Jan 11, 2025 81   @ George Mason L 70-77 19%     5 - 11 1 - 3 +2.8 +6.6 -3.8
  Jan 15, 2025 191   @ Fordham W 120-118 3OT 48%     6 - 11 2 - 3 +3.1 +6.3 -3.9
  Jan 19, 2025 193   La Salle W 82-60 68%     7 - 11 3 - 3 +18.0 -2.2 +17.4
  Jan 22, 2025 124   George Washington W 74-61 54%     8 - 11 4 - 3 +12.6 +2.7 +10.2
  Jan 29, 2025 121   @ Rhode Island L 82-88 34%     8 - 12 4 - 4 -1.2 +5.7 -6.4
  Feb 01, 2025 142   @ Duquesne W 62-53 39%     9 - 12 5 - 4 +12.7 -7.7 +20.3
  Feb 04, 2025 105   Saint Louis L 75-76 48%    
  Feb 09, 2025 193   @ La Salle L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 12, 2025 126   Davidson W 76-75 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 95   St. Bonaventure L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 19, 2025 38   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 66-80 9%    
  Feb 22, 2025 124   @ George Washington L 73-77 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 121   Rhode Island W 78-77 55%    
  Mar 05, 2025 95   @ St. Bonaventure L 68-75 23%    
  Mar 08, 2025 128   Loyola Chicago W 74-73 57%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.5 1.8 0.2 4.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 4.2 0.7 7.5 4th
5th 1.2 7.6 2.3 0.1 11.1 5th
6th 0.1 6.0 5.9 0.3 12.2 6th
7th 1.8 10.0 1.4 13.2 7th
8th 0.1 6.5 5.6 0.1 12.3 8th
9th 1.3 9.4 1.1 11.8 9th
10th 0.1 4.3 4.4 0.1 8.9 10th
11th 0.9 5.8 0.9 7.7 11th
12th 0.1 2.3 2.9 0.1 5.3 12th
13th 0.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 3.3 13th
14th 0.5 0.2 0.7 14th
15th 0.1 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 1.2 5.9 14.8 23.2 24.1 17.8 9.4 3.1 0.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 17.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.5% 3.8% 3.8% 12.0 0.0 0.5
12-6 3.1% 7.1% 7.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.9
11-7 9.4% 2.8% 2.8% 13.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.2
10-8 17.8% 1.2% 1.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 17.6
9-9 24.1% 0.4% 0.4% 15.1 0.1 0.0 24.0
8-10 23.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 23.1
7-11 14.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.8
6-12 5.9% 5.9
5-13 1.2% 1.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%