Massachusetts
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#190
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#216
Pace74.4#44
Improvement+0.9#161

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#238
First Shot-3.8#285
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#98
Layup/Dunks+1.7#119
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#193
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#336
Freethrows+0.4#150
Improvement-0.7#228

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#146
First Shot+1.2#135
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#214
Layups/Dunks-0.5#191
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#205
Freethrows-0.9#250
Improvement+1.6#101
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 34 - 75 - 16
Quad 46 - 412 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 353   New Hampshire W 103-74 91%     1 - 0 +12.6 +11.2 -2.1
  Nov 08, 2024 43   @ West Virginia L 69-75 8%     1 - 1 +8.5 +4.5 +4.2
  Nov 13, 2024 119   Louisiana Tech L 66-76 34%     1 - 2 -7.2 -6.0 -1.2
  Nov 16, 2024 215   Hofstra L 71-75 OT 66%     1 - 3 -9.8 -2.6 -7.0
  Nov 23, 2024 155   Temple L 80-87 43%     1 - 4 -6.7 +0.8 -7.2
  Nov 24, 2024 82   Florida St. L 59-92 22%     1 - 5 -26.3 -11.2 -13.9
  Nov 27, 2024 241   @ Harvard W 62-54 50%     2 - 5 +6.3 -5.8 +12.8
  Dec 01, 2024 352   NJIT W 80-68 91%     3 - 5 -4.1 +4.8 -8.4
  Dec 04, 2024 197   Central Connecticut St. L 69-73 62%     3 - 6 -8.7 -1.6 -7.2
  Dec 07, 2024 237   Umass Lowell L 83-96 70%     3 - 7 -19.9 -8.5 -9.4
  Dec 18, 2024 209   Northeastern W 77-72 65%     4 - 7 -0.4 -5.7 +4.7
  Dec 21, 2024 73   Arizona St. L 62-78 19%     4 - 8 -8.5 -8.5 +0.4
  Dec 31, 2024 76   @ Saint Joseph's L 72-81 14%     4 - 9 0 - 1 +1.2 +2.4 -0.9
  Jan 04, 2025 226   Richmond L 64-72 67%     4 - 10 0 - 2 -14.2 -7.9 -6.8
  Jan 08, 2025 74   Dayton W 76-72 27%     5 - 10 1 - 2 +8.7 +3.6 +5.1
  Jan 11, 2025 90   @ George Mason L 70-77 17%     5 - 11 1 - 3 +1.5 +6.3 -4.8
  Jan 15, 2025 238   @ Fordham W 120-118 3OT 49%     6 - 11 2 - 3 +0.6 +4.6 -4.7
  Jan 19, 2025 225   La Salle W 82-60 67%     7 - 11 3 - 3 +15.8 -3.4 +16.4
  Jan 22, 2025 114   George Washington W 74-61 42%     8 - 11 4 - 3 +13.5 +4.4 +9.4
  Jan 29, 2025 138   @ Rhode Island L 82-88 29%     8 - 12 4 - 4 -1.9 +4.0 -5.4
  Feb 01, 2025 122   @ Duquesne W 62-53 26%     9 - 12 5 - 4 +14.1 -7.9 +21.8
  Feb 04, 2025 100   Saint Louis L 71-73 38%     9 - 13 5 - 5 -0.4 +1.1 -1.6
  Feb 09, 2025 225   @ La Salle W 78-55 47%     10 - 13 6 - 5 +22.3 +12.4 +11.9
  Feb 12, 2025 140   Davidson L 68-77 50%     10 - 14 6 - 6 -10.7 -2.2 -9.1
  Feb 15, 2025 110   St. Bonaventure L 59-73 40%     10 - 15 6 - 7 -13.1 -12.5 -0.3
  Feb 19, 2025 35   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 51-80 6%     10 - 16 6 - 8 -12.7 -7.6 -8.4
  Feb 22, 2025 114   @ George Washington L 52-74 23%     10 - 17 6 - 9 -15.9 -11.6 -6.3
  Mar 01, 2025 138   Rhode Island W 91-88 50%     11 - 17 7 - 9 +1.6 +18.3 -16.7
  Mar 05, 2025 110   @ St. Bonaventure L 72-73 22%     11 - 18 7 - 10 +5.4 +0.7 +4.8
  Mar 08, 2025 109   Loyola Chicago L 51-74 40%     11 - 19 7 - 11 -22.0 -16.5 -7.2
  Mar 12, 2025 225   La Salle W 76-74 57%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 100.0 100.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 100.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.1 99.9
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%
Lose Out 42.5%