Massachusetts
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#190
Expected Predictive Rating-5.7#265
Pace75.1#43
Improvement-2.3#317

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#199
First Shot-2.9#262
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#80
Layup/Dunks+2.4#101
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#204
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#324
Freethrows+0.2#166
Improvement-2.0#319

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#180
First Shot-0.8#193
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#144
Layups/Dunks-0.5#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#24
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#228
Freethrows-1.6#292
Improvement-0.3#211
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.3 14.1
.500 or above 5.3% 13.1% 3.8%
.500 or above in Conference 18.7% 26.1% 17.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 19.6% 14.2% 20.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Neutral) - 16.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 21 - 71 - 10
Quad 35 - 86 - 18
Quad 45 - 311 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 356   New Hampshire W 103-74 91%     1 - 0 +13.0 +13.0 -3.5
  Nov 08, 2024 39   @ West Virginia L 69-75 8%     1 - 1 +8.6 +1.9 +6.9
  Nov 13, 2024 101   Louisiana Tech L 66-76 27%     1 - 2 -4.9 -4.5 -0.4
  Nov 16, 2024 153   Hofstra L 71-75 OT 55%     1 - 3 -6.7 -2.9 -3.7
  Nov 23, 2024 119   Temple L 80-87 35%     1 - 4 -4.4 +5.5 -9.5
  Nov 24, 2024 64   Florida St. L 59-92 17%     1 - 5 -24.2 -10.4 -12.7
  Nov 27, 2024 234   @ Harvard W 62-54 48%     2 - 5 +7.2 -4.9 +12.6
  Dec 01, 2024 352   NJIT W 80-68 90%     3 - 5 -3.5 +5.7 -8.8
  Dec 04, 2024 223   Central Connecticut St. L 69-73 68%     3 - 6 -10.1 -2.3 -7.9
  Dec 07, 2024 152   Umass Lowell L 83-96 55%     3 - 7 -15.7 -5.5 -8.2
  Dec 18, 2024 161   Northeastern W 77-72 57%     4 - 7 +1.8 -3.6 +4.9
  Dec 21, 2024 63   Arizona St. L 71-81 17%    
  Dec 31, 2024 97   @ Saint Joseph's L 71-81 18%    
  Jan 04, 2025 214   Richmond W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 08, 2025 41   Dayton L 69-78 20%    
  Jan 11, 2025 87   @ George Mason L 65-76 16%    
  Jan 15, 2025 169   @ Fordham L 75-79 37%    
  Jan 19, 2025 165   La Salle W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 22, 2025 137   George Washington W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 29, 2025 98   @ Rhode Island L 74-84 18%    
  Feb 01, 2025 199   @ Duquesne L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 04, 2025 144   Saint Louis W 81-80 53%    
  Feb 09, 2025 165   @ La Salle L 75-79 36%    
  Feb 12, 2025 122   Davidson L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 89   St. Bonaventure L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 19, 2025 58   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-78 11%    
  Feb 22, 2025 137   @ George Washington L 75-81 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 98   Rhode Island L 77-81 37%    
  Mar 05, 2025 89   @ St. Bonaventure L 65-76 16%    
  Mar 08, 2025 106   Loyola Chicago L 73-76 41%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.8 1.3 0.1 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.2 2.7 4.5 1.0 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 5.5 2.3 0.1 9.9 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 5.2 4.1 0.5 11.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 4.3 5.4 1.2 0.0 11.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.0 2.3 0.1 12.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.4 2.7 0.3 12.6 14th
15th 0.3 1.4 3.2 3.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 11.2 15th
Total 0.3 1.4 4.0 7.8 12.2 14.7 15.4 14.2 11.4 8.1 5.3 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 72.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 31.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 13.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 10.3% 10.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.2% 7.9% 7.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 0.6% 5.0% 5.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 1.4% 4.7% 4.7% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
11-7 3.0% 2.7% 2.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
10-8 5.3% 1.2% 1.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2
9-9 8.1% 0.6% 0.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1
8-10 11.4% 0.3% 0.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4
7-11 14.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 14.1
6-12 15.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.4
5-13 14.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.6
4-14 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.2
3-15 7.8% 7.8
2-16 4.0% 4.0
1-17 1.4% 1.4
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%