Massachusetts
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.2 #176
Expected Predictive Rating -2.0 #208
Pace 76.7 #25
Improvement -2.4 #292

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #215 C B D- C+ C
Defense #154 C B C F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #102 1.16 #165 +1.9 #108
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #134 0.74 #201 +0.6 #151
Three Pointers 36% #291 0.99 #221 -3.1 #288
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #199 -0.6 #199
Freethrows 19.3 #96 69% #283 13.4 #134
Second Chance 31.7% #152 1.19 #38 0.38 #69
Turnovers 18.7% #317
Total Offense -1.6 #215

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #74 1.25 #289 -4.3 #320
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #291 0.79 #240 +1.1 #103
Three Pointers 41% #195 0.91 #57 +2.4 #95
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #203 -0.8 #202
Freethrows 21.3 #337 72% #125 15.3 #327
Second Chance 26.5% #48 1.05 #191 0.28 #87
Turnovers 16.4% #186
Total Defense +0.4 #154

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #202 1.6% #316
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.2% #201 -0.1% #184
Possession Length 16.3 #83 16.8 #95
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #109 0.24 #348
Improvement +2.1 #73 -4.5 #355

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.7% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.1
.500 or above 84.2% 93.4% 77.0%
.500 or above in Conference 33.0% 50.4% 19.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.2% 1.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.0% 2.7% 1.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Away) - 43.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 75 - 10
Quad 411 - 417 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 163 Marshall L 72 - 78 58% -5  0 - 1 -9 -14 C F F +5 F A A+
 Sat, Nov 8 305 Albany W 83 - 62 83% +7  1 - 1 +10 +0 F A+ F +8 A+ C A+
 Thu, Nov 13 278 Le Moyne W 94 - 80 79% +11  2 - 1 +4 +8 A+ A+ F -5 C C+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 277 Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 77 79% +12  3 - 1 -3 -4 F A+ F +0 C C B
 Fri, Nov 21 164 College of Charleston L 65 - 69 47% +1  3 - 2 -4 -7 B- B- F +2 A F D-
 Sat, Nov 22 255 Green Bay L 75 - 79 65% -4  3 - 3 -9 -1 F A+ D- -8 C- C+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 195 Oregon St. W 73 - 65 54% +2  4 - 3 +6 +2 D- A+ D +4 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 168 Harvard W 78 - 71 60% +10  5 - 3 +3 +0 A+ F F +3 B+ C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 309 Umass Lowell W 80 - 60 83% +8  6 - 3 +9 -5 D+ D F +12 B A A+
 Wed, Dec 10 134 Boston College W 76 - 74 39% +3  7 - 3 +4 +7 D+ A+ F -4 A+ C D
 Sat, Dec 13 111 Florida St. W 103 - 95 32% +5  8 - 3 +12 +17 A+ A+ A -6 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 148 Kent St. L 59 - 69 54% -5  8 - 4 0 - 1 -12 -18 F F F +6 B+ A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 198 @Eastern Michigan L 74 - 80 44% -2  8 - 5 0 - 2 -6 -0 F C A+ -5 C C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 129 Bowling Green L 100 - 101 OT 49% -0  8 - 6 0 - 3 -2 +8 A+ B D- -10 F A+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 196 @Ohio L 83 - 86 43% -3  8 - 7 0 - 4 -2 +5 B F C- -8 F B+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 296 Ball St. W 79 - 71 81% +3  9 - 7 1 - 4 -3 +3 A F C+ -5 F C C-
 Tue, Jan 13 260 @Western Michigan W 85 - 82 55% +4  10 - 7 2 - 4 +1 +12 C- A+ D+ -12 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 318 @Northern Illinois L 68 - 70 70% -3  10 - 8 2 - 5 -9 -9 F F F +0 B+ B F
 Tue, Jan 20 166 Toledo W 84 - 82 59% +2  11 - 8 3 - 5 -2 +6 B- A+ D -7 F B A+
 Fri, Jan 23 201 @Buffalo L 78 - 80 44%
 Tue, Jan 27 89 @Miami (OH) L 77 - 88 16%
 Sat, Jan 31 198 Eastern Michigan W 76 - 72 66%
 Tue, Feb 3 322 Central Michigan W 82 - 70 87%
 Sat, Feb 7 252 @Coastal Carolina W 76 - 75 53%
 Sat, Feb 14 64 @Akron L 79 - 92 11%
 Tue, Feb 17 89 Miami (OH) L 80 - 85 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 201 Buffalo W 81 - 77 66%
 Tue, Feb 24 296 @Ball St. W 75 - 72 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 129 @Bowling Green L 74 - 80 29%
 Tue, Mar 3 196 Ohio W 82 - 78 65%
Totals 16 - 14 8 - 10 -1 -2 C B D- +0 C B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.4 2.2 1.5 0.2 4.2 4th
5th 0.3 4.1 5.2 0.8 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.1 4.0 9.1 2.2 0.1 15.5 6th
7th 0.0 2.4 10.8 4.9 0.3 18.4 7th
8th 1.1 9.1 7.7 0.7 18.6 8th
9th 0.4 5.3 8.7 1.6 0.0 16.0 9th
10th 0.1 2.2 5.7 1.8 0.0 9.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.2 0.1 4.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.1 1.4 5.4 13.4 22.3 24.5 19.2 10.1 3.1 0.6 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 16.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.6% 8.5% 8.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 3.1% 7.2% 7.2% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.8
10-8 10.1% 4.9% 4.9% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.6
9-9 19.2% 3.9% 3.9% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 18.4
8-10 24.5% 1.7% 1.7% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 24.1
7-11 22.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 22.2
6-12 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.4
5-13 5.4% 5.4
4-14 1.4% 1.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 13.9 98.0 0.0%