Harvard
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#231
Expected Predictive Rating-7.6#295
Pace68.5#193
Improvement+1.0#122

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#284
First Shot-0.1#179
After Offensive Rebound-3.7#346
Layup/Dunks-1.3#228
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#80
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#140
Freethrows-1.8#283
Improvement-0.9#256

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#163
First Shot-2.9#280
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#13
Layups/Dunks-5.6#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#41
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#170
Freethrows+0.5#153
Improvement+1.8#55
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 4.0% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 8.2% 14.5% 4.1%
.500 or above in Conference 33.9% 40.3% 29.7%
Conference Champion 2.7% 4.0% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 17.7% 14.2% 20.0%
First Four1.0% 0.7% 1.1%
First Round2.6% 3.8% 1.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Home) - 39.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 73 - 11
Quad 47 - 510 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 233   Marist W 79-66 62%     1 - 0 +6.3 +9.0 -1.9
  Nov 08, 2024 302   @ Navy L 80-85 54%     1 - 1 -9.7 +0.0 -9.5
  Nov 10, 2024 242   @ American L 55-67 42%     1 - 2 -13.6 -13.5 -1.2
  Nov 13, 2024 160   @ Northeastern L 56-78 27%     1 - 3 -19.2 -14.0 -5.0
  Nov 17, 2024 75   @ Colorado L 66-88 10%     1 - 4 -11.5 -0.2 -11.6
  Nov 22, 2024 223   Colgate W 78-67 60%     2 - 4 +4.8 +6.1 -0.7
  Nov 27, 2024 191   Massachusetts L 54-62 53%     2 - 5 -12.3 -16.8 +3.9
  Nov 30, 2024 13   @ St. John's L 64-77 3%     2 - 6 +5.9 +1.1 +4.7
  Dec 04, 2024 310   @ Holy Cross L 67-68 56%     2 - 7 -6.3 -7.1 +0.8
  Dec 08, 2024 356   @ New Hampshire W 72-62 72%     3 - 7 +0.1 -1.3 +1.6
  Dec 21, 2024 128   Furman L 66-69 39%    
  Dec 29, 2024 258   @ Iona L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 11, 2025 117   Princeton L 70-73 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 156   @ Brown L 64-71 27%    
  Jan 20, 2025 274   Penn W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 100   @ Yale L 65-77 13%    
  Jan 31, 2025 177   @ Columbia L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 01, 2025 120   @ Cornell L 73-82 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 312   @ Dartmouth W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 14, 2025 120   Cornell L 76-79 39%    
  Feb 15, 2025 177   Columbia W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 21, 2025 117   @ Princeton L 67-76 19%    
  Feb 22, 2025 274   @ Penn L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 28, 2025 156   Brown L 67-68 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 100   Yale L 68-74 30%    
  Mar 08, 2025 312   Dartmouth W 75-67 76%    
Projected Record 9 - 17 6 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 7.1 3.6 0.3 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.1 9.3 4.5 0.4 0.0 18.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 6.2 10.0 4.6 0.5 0.0 22.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 5.9 7.3 2.7 0.2 0.0 17.4 7th
8th 0.3 1.7 3.6 3.2 1.0 0.1 10.0 8th
Total 0.3 1.8 4.9 10.1 14.9 17.0 17.2 13.9 9.9 5.7 2.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-2 97.8% 0.3    0.3 0.0 0.0
11-3 74.0% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
10-4 36.3% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
9-5 7.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-1 0.1% 29.0% 29.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-2 0.4% 16.9% 16.9% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-3 1.0% 18.5% 18.5% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8
10-4 2.9% 17.2% 17.2% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 2.4
9-5 5.7% 11.2% 11.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 5.1
8-6 9.9% 8.9% 8.9% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 9.0
7-7 13.9% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.1 0.5 13.3
6-8 17.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 17.0
5-9 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.0
4-10 14.9% 14.9
3-11 10.1% 10.1
2-12 4.9% 4.9
1-13 1.8% 1.8
0-14 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%