Harvard
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#215
Expected Predictive Rating-5.2#252
Pace67.6#215
Improvement+3.9#30

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#250
First Shot+1.2#142
After Offensive Rebound-4.0#352
Layup/Dunks-2.2#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#95
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#98
Freethrows-0.5#214
Improvement+2.0#74

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#175
First Shot-1.4#223
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#71
Layups/Dunks-4.9#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#47
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#148
Freethrows+0.8#127
Improvement+1.9#81
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 4.8% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 9.2% 11.5% 2.4%
.500 or above in Conference 46.8% 54.2% 24.6%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.0% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 8.6% 4.2% 21.6%
First Four1.6% 1.9% 1.0%
First Round3.5% 4.2% 1.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Home) - 75.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 10
Quad 48 - 611 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 218   Marist W 79-66 61%     1 - 0 +7.1 +12.0 -4.0
  Nov 08, 2024 291   @ Navy L 80-85 57%     1 - 1 -9.7 +0.4 -9.9
  Nov 10, 2024 236   @ American L 55-67 44%     1 - 2 -13.5 -13.2 -1.5
  Nov 13, 2024 200   @ Northeastern L 56-78 35%     1 - 3 -21.1 -16.2 -4.7
  Nov 17, 2024 94   @ Colorado L 66-88 14%     1 - 4 -13.2 -0.6 -12.8
  Nov 22, 2024 198   Colgate W 78-67 56%     2 - 4 +6.6 +7.6 -0.4
  Nov 27, 2024 171   Massachusetts L 54-62 51%     2 - 5 -11.2 -15.9 +4.2
  Nov 30, 2024 16   @ St. John's L 64-77 3%     2 - 6 +6.2 +3.8 +2.3
  Dec 04, 2024 319   @ Holy Cross L 67-68 63%     2 - 7 -7.3 -8.2 +0.8
  Dec 08, 2024 351   @ New Hampshire W 72-62 76%     3 - 7 -0.1 -1.9 +1.9
  Dec 21, 2024 151   Furman L 63-77 46%     3 - 8 -15.8 -4.0 -13.4
  Dec 29, 2024 253   @ Iona W 67-61 48%     4 - 8 +3.5 -0.4 +4.2
  Jan 11, 2025 122   Princeton L 64-68 39%     4 - 9 0 - 1 -4.1 -3.1 -1.4
  Jan 18, 2025 212   @ Brown W 80-67 39%     5 - 9 1 - 1 +13.0 +10.2 +3.3
  Jan 20, 2025 287   Penn W 73-66 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 88   @ Yale L 66-78 12%    
  Jan 31, 2025 207   @ Columbia L 74-77 37%    
  Feb 01, 2025 134   @ Cornell L 75-82 24%    
  Feb 08, 2025 274   @ Dartmouth W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 14, 2025 134   Cornell L 77-79 44%    
  Feb 15, 2025 207   Columbia W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 21, 2025 122   @ Princeton L 68-76 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 287   @ Penn W 70-68 54%    
  Feb 28, 2025 212   Brown W 70-67 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 88   Yale L 69-76 29%    
  Mar 08, 2025 274   Dartmouth W 75-69 72%    
Projected Record 10 - 16 6 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 1.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.7 6.8 4.8 0.7 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.7 6.9 11.8 6.2 0.8 0.0 26.4 4th
5th 0.6 6.3 11.0 4.0 0.3 22.1 5th
6th 0.5 4.5 7.7 2.8 0.1 15.5 6th
7th 0.2 2.5 4.6 1.3 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.5 0.0 3.7 8th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.7 10.1 16.0 20.8 18.7 14.3 8.7 3.7 1.2 0.2 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 94.7% 0.2    0.1 0.0
11-3 55.4% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1
10-4 18.0% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0
9-5 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-3 1.2% 22.3% 22.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9
10-4 3.7% 11.3% 11.3% 14.6 0.2 0.3 3.3
9-5 8.7% 10.8% 10.8% 15.1 0.1 0.7 0.2 7.8
8-6 14.3% 8.2% 8.2% 15.9 0.2 1.0 13.1
7-7 18.7% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 1.0 17.7
6-8 20.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 20.6
5-9 16.0% 16.0
4-10 10.1% 10.1
3-11 4.7% 4.7
2-12 1.4% 1.4
1-13 0.2% 0.2
0-14
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 96.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%