Harvard
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#232
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#301
Pace68.5#192
Improvement+0.6#143

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#283
First Shot-0.1#174
After Offensive Rebound-3.7#347
Layup/Dunks-1.5#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#78
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#142
Freethrows-1.7#278
Improvement-1.0#273

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#173
First Shot-2.8#268
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#22
Layups/Dunks-5.7#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#43
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
Freethrows+0.6#148
Improvement+1.6#59
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.3% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.6
.500 or above 8.3% 14.5% 4.4%
.500 or above in Conference 33.5% 39.4% 29.7%
Conference Champion 2.8% 3.8% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 18.7% 15.0% 21.1%
First Four1.2% 1.0% 1.4%
First Round2.8% 3.9% 2.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Home) - 39.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 73 - 11
Quad 47 - 610 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 236   Marist W 79-66 62%     1 - 0 +6.0 +9.4 -2.5
  Nov 08, 2024 301   @ Navy L 80-85 53%     1 - 1 -9.5 +0.1 -9.3
  Nov 10, 2024 237   @ American L 55-67 39%     1 - 2 -13.0 -13.3 -0.9
  Nov 13, 2024 158   @ Northeastern L 56-78 26%     1 - 3 -19.0 -14.4 -4.4
  Nov 17, 2024 73   @ Colorado L 66-88 10%     1 - 4 -11.5 -0.3 -11.4
  Nov 22, 2024 224   Colgate W 78-67 60%     2 - 4 +4.7 +6.0 -0.7
  Nov 27, 2024 200   Massachusetts L 54-62 54%     2 - 5 -12.8 -17.4 +4.0
  Nov 30, 2024 15   @ St. John's L 64-77 3%     2 - 6 +5.3 +0.5 +4.7
  Dec 04, 2024 330   @ Holy Cross L 67-68 62%     2 - 7 -8.0 -7.6 -0.5
  Dec 08, 2024 354   @ New Hampshire W 72-62 72%     3 - 7 +0.1 -1.4 +1.6
  Dec 21, 2024 126   Furman L 66-69 39%    
  Dec 29, 2024 257   @ Iona L 68-69 45%    
  Jan 11, 2025 119   Princeton L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 18, 2025 159   @ Brown L 64-71 26%    
  Jan 20, 2025 284   Penn W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 105   @ Yale L 67-78 15%    
  Jan 31, 2025 183   @ Columbia L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 01, 2025 121   @ Cornell L 73-82 19%    
  Feb 08, 2025 306   @ Dartmouth W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 14, 2025 121   Cornell L 76-79 38%    
  Feb 15, 2025 183   Columbia W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 21, 2025 119   @ Princeton L 66-76 19%    
  Feb 22, 2025 284   @ Penn L 68-69 49%    
  Feb 28, 2025 159   Brown L 67-68 47%    
  Mar 01, 2025 105   Yale L 70-75 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 306   Dartmouth W 74-67 73%    
Projected Record 9 - 17 6 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 2.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.8 7.0 3.5 0.3 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.4 4.0 9.2 4.5 0.3 18.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.8 10.0 4.7 0.4 21.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.6 7.6 3.0 0.2 17.8 7th
8th 0.4 1.8 3.8 3.5 1.2 0.1 10.7 8th
Total 0.4 1.8 5.1 10.0 14.9 17.2 17.0 13.8 9.6 5.7 2.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
12-2 96.6% 0.3    0.3 0.0
11-3 75.7% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
10-4 38.3% 1.1    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
9-5 8.0% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.1% 18.5% 18.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-2 0.4% 31.3% 31.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-3 1.1% 21.3% 21.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
10-4 2.9% 16.3% 16.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.4
9-5 5.7% 12.5% 12.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 5.0
8-6 9.6% 9.7% 9.7% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 8.7
7-7 13.8% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7 13.1
6-8 17.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 16.9
5-9 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.2
4-10 14.9% 14.9
3-11 10.0% 10.0
2-12 5.1% 5.1
1-13 1.8% 1.8
0-14 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.7 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%