Columbia
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#140
Expected Predictive Rating+14.2#33
Pace69.8#178
Improvement+1.5#70

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#122
First Shot+2.1#119
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#190
Layup/Dunks+2.7#97
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#239
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#79
Freethrows-3.0#327
Improvement+2.3#24

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#173
First Shot-0.7#194
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#154
Layups/Dunks-3.6#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#134
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#170
Freethrows+1.6#93
Improvement-0.7#253
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.2% 16.6% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.8 13.3
.500 or above 98.2% 98.8% 92.8%
.500 or above in Conference 81.7% 82.6% 73.7%
Conference Champion 17.7% 18.4% 10.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 2.9% 6.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round16.2% 16.6% 11.6%
Second Round1.3% 1.4% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Albany (Home) - 90.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 34 - 35 - 7
Quad 414 - 219 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 346 @New Haven W 71-53 83%     1 - 0 +9.5 +1.8 +9.0
  Mon, Nov 10 5 @Connecticut L 62-89 3%     1 - 1 -3.5 +3.8 -8.6
  Thu, Nov 13 314 Umass Lowell W 86-72 88%     2 - 1 +2.6 +7.2 -4.5
  Tue, Nov 18 235 Boston University W 54-49 80%     3 - 1 -2.5 -16.7 +15.1
  Fri, Nov 21 299 @Lehigh W 82-67 72%     4 - 1 +10.3 +9.6 +1.1
  Sun, Nov 23 289 Longwood W 95-70 86%     5 - 1 +15.1 +13.9 +0.3
  Wed, Nov 26 294 @Fairfield W 106-77 72%     6 - 1 +24.5 +29.6 -5.5
  Wed, Dec 3 136 Hofstra W 72-70 61%     7 - 1 +0.7 +5.1 -4.3
  Sat, Dec 6 324 Albany W 81-67 90%    
  Tue, Dec 9 222 @Stony Brook W 74-72 58%    
  Sun, Dec 21 69 @California L 71-81 19%    
  Sun, Dec 28 343 @North Florida W 87-77 82%    
  Mon, Jan 5 150 @Cornell L 83-85 44%    
  Sat, Jan 10 193 Harvard W 75-68 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 225 @Brown W 70-68 59%    
  Mon, Jan 19 73 @Yale L 73-82 20%    
  Sat, Jan 24 261 @Dartmouth W 79-75 65%    
  Fri, Jan 30 240 Penn W 82-73 79%    
  Sat, Jan 31 247 Princeton W 76-67 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 150 Cornell W 86-82 65%    
  Fri, Feb 13 240 @Penn W 79-76 61%    
  Sat, Feb 14 247 @Princeton W 73-70 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 261 Dartmouth W 82-72 82%    
  Fri, Feb 27 225 Brown W 73-65 77%    
  Sat, Feb 28 73 Yale L 76-79 39%    
  Sat, Mar 7 193 @Harvard W 72-71 53%    
Projected Record 18 - 8 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.2 5.8 4.9 2.4 0.5 17.7 1st
2nd 0.3 4.0 9.8 10.8 5.5 0.8 31.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.6 9.0 6.3 1.4 0.1 20.5 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 6.8 3.1 0.3 12.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.7 2.0 0.2 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.7 1.5 0.1 5.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.0 0.1 2.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.4 8th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.8 5.2 8.9 12.8 16.2 17.3 15.4 11.4 5.8 2.4 0.5 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
13-1 100.0% 2.4    2.2 0.3
12-2 85.8% 4.9    3.4 1.5 0.0
11-3 51.0% 5.8    2.8 2.8 0.2 0.0
10-4 20.7% 3.2    0.9 1.8 0.4 0.0
9-5 4.9% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
8-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 17.7% 17.7 9.8 6.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.5% 63.0% 61.5% 1.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 3.8%
13-1 2.4% 39.9% 39.9% 11.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5
12-2 5.8% 33.7% 33.6% 0.1% 12.2 0.2 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.8 0.2%
11-3 11.4% 29.3% 29.3% 12.5 0.1 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 8.0
10-4 15.4% 21.7% 21.7% 12.9 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 12.1
9-5 17.3% 18.7% 18.7% 13.1 0.6 1.6 0.9 0.1 14.0
8-6 16.2% 13.8% 13.8% 13.4 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.2 14.0
7-7 12.8% 5.8% 5.8% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 12.1
6-8 8.9% 0.7% 0.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9
5-9 5.2% 5.2
4-10 2.8% 2.8
3-11 0.9% 0.9
2-12 0.3% 0.3
1-13 0.1% 0.1
0-14
Total 100% 16.2% 16.1% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 5.4 6.4 3.1 0.4 83.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.5 14.3 7.1 17.9 3.6 7.1 35.7 14.3