IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Columbia
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-1.3	#180
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.7	#154

Pace	70.1	#151
Improvement	-7.9	#365

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#153	B-	C+	F	C-	B
Defense	#227	C+	B-	F	C	D+

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	45%	#41	1.15	#182	+3.4	#74
2 Pt. Jumpers	16%	#265	0.76	#164	-1.4	#247
Three Pointers	39%	#222	1.11	#55	+0.8	#152
1st FG Attempt			1.07	#107	+2.8	#100
Freethrows	15.8	#264	76%	#71	12.0	#214
Second Chance	35.4%	#55	0.96	#284	0.34	#129
Turnovers					20.6%	#357
Total Offense					+0.3	#153

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	44%	#40	1.07	#77	-1.5	#230
2 Pt. Jumpers	21%	#166	0.79	#226	-0.4	#207
Three Pointers	35%	#334	1.01	#187	+3.2	#61
1st FG Attempt			0.99	#137	+1.3	#137
Freethrows	17.3	#184	73%	#189	12.6	#180
Second Chance	28.9%	#110	0.98	#88	0.28	#93
Turnovers					12.5%	#353
Total Defense					-1.7	#227

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	2.0%	#58	0.8%	#243
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	3.3%	#127	-3.3%	#123
Possession Length	18.3	#272	16.6	#61
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.14	#257	0.21	#300
Improvement	-1.7	#282	-6.2	#363

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.3%	8.0%	3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.7	13.7	13.8

.500 or above	94.9%	98.7%	91.5%
.500 or above in Conference	48.0%	64.9%	33.0%
Conference Champion	2.7%	4.7%	0.8%
Last Place in Conference	15.3%	7.4%	22.3%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	5.3%	8.0%	3.0%
Second Round	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Away) - 47.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 4
Quad 3	4 - 4	4 - 7
Quad 4	12 - 4	16 - 11

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Fri, Nov 7	331 @New Haven	W	71 - 53	73%	+16	1 - 0		+10	+2	A+	F	F	+10	A+	B-	D
Mon, Nov 10	7 @Connecticut	L	62 - 89	2%	-16	1 - 1		-4	+5	C+	C+	C	-10	D	C-	F
Thu, Nov 13	309 Umass Lowell	W	86 - 72	83%	+1	2 - 1		+3	+8	B+	B	F	-5	D	A	C-
Tue, Nov 18	285 Boston University	W	54 - 49	80%	+12	3 - 1		-5	-18	F	F	F	+14	A+	C	F
Fri, Nov 21	307 @Lehigh	W	82 - 67	65%	+9	4 - 1		+10	+9	A-	A+	F	+1	C	C+	F
Sun, Nov 23	262 Longwood	W	95 - 70	76%	+13	5 - 1		+16	+14	A+	A+	F	+1	F	A+	B-
Wed, Nov 26	274 @Fairfield	W	106 - 77	57%	+18	6 - 1		+26	+28	A+	A+	C	-3	C	C+	C-
Wed, Dec 3	126 Hofstra	W	72 - 70	48%	+6	7 - 1		+1	+2	A	F	F	-0	A	D+	D
Sat, Dec 6	305 Albany	W	93 - 65	82%	+9	8 - 1		+17	+16	A+	A+	F	+1	B	A+	F
Tue, Dec 9	242 @Stony Brook	L	73 - 77 OT	51%	-8	8 - 2		-5	-9	F	F	F	+4	A+	F	B+
Sun, Dec 21	75 @California	L	56 - 74	13%	-11	8 - 3		-7	-9	B+	F	F	+1	B	A+	F
Sun, Dec 28	350 @North Florida	W	90 - 82	78%	+1	9 - 3		-1	+5	A+	F	D	-7	D+	A+	F
Mon, Jan 5	187 @Cornell	W	104 - 99	40%	+1	10 - 3	1 - 0	+6	+10	A	F	F	-4	B	D-	D-
Sat, Jan 10	168 Harvard	L	54 - 79	60%	-13	10 - 4	1 - 1	-29	-12	F	C-	F	-21	F	D	F
Sat, Jan 17	264 @Brown	L	80 - 86 OT	55%	+1	10 - 5	1 - 2	-9	+7	D	A+	C-	-15	F	B+	F
Mon, Jan 19	83 @Yale	L	74 - 91	14%	-9	10 - 6	1 - 3	-7	+8	D+	A+	F	-17	F	D-	D
Sat, Jan 24	221 @Dartmouth	L	78 - 79	47%
Fri, Jan 30	182 Penn	W	80 - 77	62%
Sat, Jan 31	214 Princeton	W	75 - 70	68%
Sat, Feb 7	187 Cornell	W	90 - 87	62%
Fri, Feb 13	182 @Penn	L	77 - 80	40%
Sat, Feb 14	214 @Princeton	L	72 - 73	47%
Sat, Feb 21	221 Dartmouth	W	81 - 76	69%
Fri, Feb 27	264 Brown	W	73 - 66	75%
Sat, Feb 28	83 Yale	L	76 - 81	31%
Sat, Mar 7	168 @Harvard	L	70 - 74	37%
Totals						15 - 11	6 - 8	-1	+0	B-	C+	F	-2	C+	B-	F

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ivy League Finish

	0-14	1-13	2-12	3-11	4-10	5-9	6-8	7-7	8-6	9-5	10-4	11-3	12-2	13-1	14-0	Total
1st									0.1	0.9	1.2	0.4				2.7	1st
2nd								1.1	6.5	5.8	1.5	0.1				14.9	2nd
3rd							0.2	7.1	7.6	1.2	0.0					16.2	3rd
4th						0.1	4.3	10.0	1.5	0.0						15.8	4th
5th					0.0	1.7	10.9	2.9	0.0							15.5	5th
6th				0.0	1.2	8.2	5.0	0.1								14.7	6th
7th			0.1	1.3	5.4	6.1	0.3									13.2	7th
8th		0.1	0.9	2.8	3.0	0.4										7.2	8th

Total		0.1	0.9	4.1	9.6	16.5	20.7	21.2	15.8	7.9	2.7	0.5					Total

Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3	84.6%	0.4	0.2	0.1
10-4	45.6%	1.2	0.4	0.7	0.1
9-5	11.8%	0.9	0.1	0.4	0.3	0.1
8-6	0.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
7-7	0.0%

Total	2.7%	2.7	0.7	1.3	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3	0.5%	28.6%	28.6%		12.3											0.0	0.1	0.0				0.3
10-4	2.7%	23.5%	23.5%		13.1												0.1	0.4	0.1	0.0		2.1
9-5	7.9%	20.2%	20.2%		13.6												0.1	0.6	0.8	0.1		6.3
8-6	15.8%	13.9%	13.9%		13.9												0.0	0.6	1.2	0.3	0.0	13.6
7-7	21.2%	3.7%	3.7%		14.2													0.1	0.4	0.3		20.4
6-8	20.7%																					20.7
5-9	16.5%																					16.5
4-10	9.6%																					9.6
3-11	4.1%																					4.1
2-12	0.9%																					0.9
1-13	0.1%																					0.1
0-14

Total	100%	5.3%	5.3%	0.0%	13.7																	94.7	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	11	12	13
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	12.3	3.8	65.4	30.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.2%
Lose Out	0.1%