Penn
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#274
Expected Predictive Rating-7.7#298
Pace64.4#294
Improvement+2.8#34

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#214
First Shot-1.6#220
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#179
Layup/Dunks+1.5#129
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#361
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#118
Freethrows-0.5#211
Improvement+0.2#157

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#317
First Shot-3.3#290
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#282
Layups/Dunks-3.0#293
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#327
Freethrows+2.8#27
Improvement+2.6#19
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 2.1% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 1.6% 6.4% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 15.5% 23.8% 14.9%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.6% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 35.0% 27.3% 35.6%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Round0.8% 1.9% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 7.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 72 - 14
Quad 46 - 59 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 352   @ NJIT W 58-57 62%     1 - 0 -8.5 -11.3 +3.0
  Nov 07, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-84 85%     2 - 0 -14.1 +5.6 -19.6
  Nov 12, 2024 246   @ Lafayette L 63-65 33%     2 - 1 -3.8 +3.5 -7.6
  Nov 15, 2024 96   Saint Joseph's L 69-86 20%     2 - 2 -14.4 +3.3 -18.9
  Nov 19, 2024 44   @ Villanova L 49-93 4%     2 - 3 -30.3 -16.6 -17.2
  Nov 29, 2024 302   Navy L 78-86 67%     2 - 4 -18.7 -1.8 -16.8
  Nov 30, 2024 212   Maine W 77-64 47%     3 - 4 +7.5 +10.0 -1.5
  Dec 01, 2024 179   Elon L 53-68 41%     3 - 5 -18.9 -13.1 -8.3
  Dec 07, 2024 146   Drexel L 47-60 26%     3 - 6 -12.6 -21.2 +7.6
  Dec 09, 2024 57   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 47-66 5%     3 - 7 -6.5 -13.0 +4.8
  Dec 20, 2024 300   Rider W 79-66 66%     4 - 7 +2.6 +11.2 -6.9
  Dec 22, 2024 87   @ George Mason L 59-75 7%    
  Dec 29, 2024 30   @ Penn St. L 64-86 2%    
  Jan 11, 2025 312   @ Dartmouth L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 120   Cornell L 75-81 30%    
  Jan 20, 2025 231   @ Harvard L 66-72 31%    
  Jan 25, 2025 177   Columbia L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 31, 2025 156   Brown L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 100   Yale L 68-76 22%    
  Feb 07, 2025 117   Princeton L 69-75 29%    
  Feb 14, 2025 100   @ Yale L 65-79 9%    
  Feb 15, 2025 156   @ Brown L 64-73 20%    
  Feb 21, 2025 312   Dartmouth W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 22, 2025 231   Harvard W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 28, 2025 120   @ Cornell L 72-84 15%    
  Mar 01, 2025 177   @ Columbia L 70-78 23%    
  Mar 08, 2025 117   @ Princeton L 66-78 14%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 4 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 2.3 0.7 0.1 4.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 4.1 1.3 0.1 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.8 6.8 2.5 0.1 13.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 6.6 9.8 3.6 0.2 21.3 6th
7th 0.2 3.1 9.7 10.6 3.5 0.2 27.3 7th
8th 1.4 5.1 8.4 6.1 1.6 0.1 22.6 8th
Total 1.4 5.3 11.5 16.9 19.2 17.4 12.9 8.2 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-3 81.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
10-4 40.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-5 9.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-2 0.0% 4.8% 4.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0
11-3 0.2% 23.3% 23.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
10-4 0.7% 15.6% 15.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
9-5 2.0% 10.1% 10.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.8
8-6 4.3% 7.0% 7.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.0
7-7 8.2% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.2 8.0
6-8 12.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.9
5-9 17.4% 17.4
4-10 19.2% 19.2
3-11 16.9% 16.9
2-12 11.5% 11.5
1-13 5.3% 5.3
0-14 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%