Penn
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.5 #182
Expected Predictive Rating -0.7 #173
Pace 71.9 #96
Improvement +2.5 #68

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #154 C C C B- D-
Defense #235 D+ C+ D A- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #285 1.01 #334 -4.7 #330
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #52 0.81 #94 +3.4 #40
Three Pointers 38% #255 1.20 #9 +1.6 #126
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #167 +0.3 #168
Freethrows 19.6 #78 71% #243 13.9 #103
Second Chance 30.9% #176 1.07 #148 0.33 #155
Turnovers 16.4% #170
Total Offense +0.3 #154

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #65 1.26 #309 -4.9 #330
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #136 0.88 #333 -1.7 #311
Three Pointers 35% #321 0.93 #75 +4.4 #31
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #251 -2.3 #252
Freethrows 14.4 #42 69% #40 9.9 #29
Second Chance 31.2% #208 0.98 #92 0.30 #136
Turnovers 14.7% #287
Total Defense -1.8 #235

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.3% #317 0.4% #195
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.0% #132 4.0% #257
Possession Length 16.4 #92 17.3 #180
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #311 0.21 #286
Improvement +1.0 #129 +1.6 #90

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 11.7% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.4
.500 or above 50.7% 73.2% 41.1%
.500 or above in Conference 59.9% 80.2% 51.2%
Conference Champion 5.2% 13.6% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 3.6% 11.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.2% 11.6% 5.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Yale (Home) - 30.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 64 - 11
Quad 49 - 213 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 224 @American L 78 - 84 47% -3  0 - 1 -7 -1 C F F -5 F B- C
 Tue, Nov 11 65 @Providence L 81 - 106 12% -10  0 - 2 -14 +0 F C B+ -11 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 159 Saint Joseph's W 83 - 74 56% +1  1 - 2 +6 +6 A+ F F -0 D A+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 203 @Drexel W 84 - 68 43% +9  2 - 2 +16 +17 B+ A+ C -0 B+ C F
 Fri, Nov 28 208 Merrimack W 77 - 65 67% +4  3 - 2 +6 +5 B C B+ +2 A C+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 197 La Salle W 73 - 71 65% -3  4 - 2 -4 +5 B A+ C- -8 A+ F D
 Sun, Nov 30 126 Hofstra L 60 - 77 47% -4  4 - 3 -18 -12 F B- C -7 F D- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 33 Villanova L 63 - 90 8% -15  4 - 4 -13 +0 C- B- C- -15 F A- C
 Mon, Dec 8 314 Lafayette W 74 - 72 84% +6  5 - 4 -10 -6 D- F B- -5 F A+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 115 @Rutgers L 69 - 70 23% +4  5 - 5 +5 +1 F A+ D- +4 C+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 28 86 @George Mason L 79 - 83 14% -3  5 - 6 +6 +12 A+ C- A+ -6 D+ F F
 Wed, Dec 31 336 NJIT W 80 - 61 88% +6  6 - 6 +5 +2 A+ F F +3 C+ A B-
 Mon, Jan 5 214 @Princeton L 76 - 78 46% +1  6 - 7 0 - 1 -2 +8 F A+ F -10 F A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 264 Brown W 81 - 73 75% +1  7 - 7 1 - 1 -1 +11 A+ F A -11 F D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 221 @Dartmouth W 84 - 74 46% +1  8 - 7 2 - 1 +9 +8 A- C A+ +1 B+ C C-
 Mon, Jan 19 168 @Harvard L 63 - 64 36% -1  8 - 8 2 - 2 +1 -1 C- F C- +2 C A- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 83 Yale L 76 - 82 30%
 Fri, Jan 30 180 @Columbia L 77 - 80 38%
 Sat, Jan 31 187 @Cornell L 88 - 91 40%
 Sat, Feb 7 214 Princeton W 76 - 71 68%
 Fri, Feb 13 180 Columbia W 80 - 77 60%
 Sat, Feb 14 187 Cornell W 91 - 88 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 83 @Yale L 73 - 85 14%
 Fri, Feb 27 221 Dartmouth W 83 - 78 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 168 Harvard W 73 - 71 59%
 Fri, Mar 6 264 @Brown W 71 - 70 54%
Totals 13 - 13 7 - 7 -1 +0 C C C -2 D+ C+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 2.3 1.2 0.1 5.2 1st
2nd 1.1 7.7 8.7 2.6 0.2 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 8.0 9.0 1.8 0.1 19.1 3rd
4th 0.0 4.4 10.6 2.0 0.0 17.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 10.7 2.7 0.1 14.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 6.2 4.4 0.2 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.3 0.2 8.2 7th
8th 0.2 1.3 1.9 0.4 3.8 8th
Total 0.3 1.7 5.8 12.4 19.9 22.7 19.0 11.9 4.9 1.3 0.1 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
11-3 88.1% 1.2    0.8 0.4 0.0
10-4 47.1% 2.3    0.9 1.2 0.2
9-5 11.8% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1
8-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.0 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.1% 38.1% 38.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-3 1.3% 28.6% 28.6% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
10-4 4.9% 18.2% 18.2% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.0
9-5 11.9% 16.9% 16.9% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.4 9.9
8-6 19.0% 13.5% 13.5% 14.6 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.1 16.4
7-7 22.7% 5.5% 5.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 21.4
6-8 19.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.9
5-9 12.4% 12.4
4-10 5.8% 5.8
3-11 1.7% 1.7
2-12 0.3% 0.3
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 14.3 92.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%