Providence
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#88
Expected Predictive Rating+3.7#114
Pace66.0#233
Improvement-2.8#293

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#72
First Shot+1.5#127
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#26
Layup/Dunks-1.7#243
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#49
Freethrows+0.7#136
Improvement+1.9#98

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#121
First Shot-0.2#188
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#55
Layups/Dunks-1.0#211
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#44
Freethrows-0.5#223
Improvement-4.7#349
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 10
Quad 22 - 73 - 17
Quad 34 - 37 - 20
Quad 45 - 012 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 198   Central Connecticut St. W 59-55 84%     1 - 0 -0.7 -6.6 +6.4
  Nov 09, 2024 330   Stonehill W 76-49 95%     2 - 0 +13.6 -6.8 +19.5
  Nov 12, 2024 211   Hampton W 60-51 86%     3 - 0 +3.4 -5.4 +10.2
  Nov 16, 2024 334   Green Bay W 79-65 96%     4 - 0 +0.1 +1.3 -0.6
  Nov 19, 2024 312   Delaware St. W 78-48 94%     5 - 0 +18.2 +11.4 +11.6
  Nov 27, 2024 40   Oklahoma L 77-79 26%     5 - 1 +10.6 +8.8 +1.8
  Nov 28, 2024 140   Davidson L 58-69 68%     5 - 2 -9.9 -7.2 -4.3
  Nov 29, 2024 42   Indiana L 73-89 28%     5 - 3 -4.2 +10.9 -16.0
  Dec 03, 2024 20   BYU W 83-64 23%     6 - 3 +32.7 +25.0 +10.3
  Dec 07, 2024 138   @ Rhode Island L 63-69 57%     6 - 4 -1.9 -6.7 +4.5
  Dec 10, 2024 116   @ DePaul W 70-63 OT 50%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +12.9 -5.4 +17.9
  Dec 14, 2024 109   St. Bonaventure L 70-74 59%     7 - 5 -0.3 +10.2 -11.1
  Dec 20, 2024 13   St. John's L 70-72 19%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +13.0 +6.9 +6.2
  Dec 31, 2024 25   Marquette L 50-78 26%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -15.4 -10.3 -8.6
  Jan 05, 2025 28   @ Connecticut L 84-87 15%     7 - 8 1 - 3 +14.2 +22.1 -8.0
  Jan 08, 2025 72   Butler W 84-65 53%     8 - 8 2 - 3 +24.0 +14.2 +10.7
  Jan 11, 2025 166   Seton Hall W 91-85 81%     9 - 8 3 - 3 +2.8 +20.5 -17.7
  Jan 14, 2025 32   @ Creighton L 64-84 16%     9 - 9 3 - 4 -3.4 -2.1 -0.8
  Jan 17, 2025 45   @ Villanova L 73-75 22%     9 - 10 3 - 5 +12.2 +8.1 +4.0
  Jan 25, 2025 81   Georgetown W 78-68 57%     10 - 10 4 - 5 +14.2 +17.8 -2.4
  Jan 28, 2025 166   @ Seton Hall W 69-67 64%     11 - 10 5 - 5 +4.3 +4.9 -0.5
  Feb 01, 2025 13   @ St. John's L 66-68 9%     11 - 11 5 - 6 +18.5 +5.5 +13.1
  Feb 05, 2025 32   Creighton L 69-80 31%     11 - 12 5 - 7 +0.1 +1.0 -0.9
  Feb 08, 2025 72   @ Butler L 81-82 33%     11 - 13 5 - 8 +9.5 +12.8 -3.3
  Feb 12, 2025 39   Xavier L 82-91 34%     11 - 14 5 - 9 +1.1 +10.5 -9.0
  Feb 15, 2025 45   Villanova W 75-62 39%     12 - 14 6 - 9 +21.7 +11.3 +11.7
  Feb 19, 2025 81   @ Georgetown L 72-93 36%     12 - 15 6 - 10 -11.3 +3.7 -14.5
  Feb 25, 2025 25   @ Marquette L 52-82 13%     12 - 16 6 - 11 -11.9 -10.0 -2.9
  Mar 01, 2025 28   Connecticut L 63-75 29%     12 - 17 6 - 12 -0.3 +2.5 -4.7
  Mar 05, 2025 116   DePaul L 77-80 70%     12 - 18 6 - 13 -2.6 +7.9 -10.6
  Mar 08, 2025 39   @ Xavier L 68-76 18%     12 - 19 6 - 14 +7.6 +5.3 +2.0
  Mar 12, 2025 72   Butler L 75-77 43%    
Projected Record 12 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 100.0 100.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14 100.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.1 0.2 0.0 99.8
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.1 0.2 0.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 15.1 90.0 10.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.9%
Lose Out 58.0%