Providence
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.1#66
Expected Predictive Rating+5.7#89
Pace65.6#253
Improvement+2.1#93

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#69
First Shot+1.7#126
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#28
Layup/Dunks-1.6#245
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#47
Freethrows+0.7#130
Improvement+4.4#11

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#80
First Shot+1.5#123
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#47
Layups/Dunks-0.3#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#34
Freethrows-0.2#196
Improvement-2.3#296
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 5.3% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.8% 3.9% 0.5%
Average Seed 10.9 10.6 11.3
.500 or above 34.4% 53.2% 23.0%
.500 or above in Conference 31.0% 49.7% 19.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 2.7% 0.5%
First Round2.3% 4.0% 1.2%
Second Round0.8% 1.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Creighton (Home) - 37.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 10
Quad 24 - 66 - 16
Quad 34 - 210 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 209   Central Connecticut St. W 59-55 88%     1 - 0 -1.0 -6.5 +6.0
  Nov 09, 2024 321   Stonehill W 76-49 96%     2 - 0 +14.8 -5.1 +19.1
  Nov 12, 2024 287   Hampton W 60-51 94%     3 - 0 -0.4 -7.5 +8.5
  Nov 16, 2024 347   Green Bay W 79-65 97%     4 - 0 -0.5 +0.9 -0.8
  Nov 19, 2024 314   Delaware St. W 78-48 95%     5 - 0 +18.7 +12.9 +10.7
  Nov 27, 2024 34   Oklahoma L 77-79 31%     5 - 1 +11.2 +9.2 +2.0
  Nov 28, 2024 126   Davidson L 58-69 72%     5 - 2 -8.9 -7.8 -2.7
  Nov 29, 2024 53   Indiana L 73-89 42%     5 - 3 -5.9 +8.9 -15.7
  Dec 03, 2024 33   BYU W 83-64 38%     6 - 3 +30.2 +24.8 +8.0
  Dec 07, 2024 121   @ Rhode Island L 63-69 62%     6 - 4 -1.2 -4.9 +3.6
  Dec 10, 2024 112   @ DePaul W 70-63 OT 59%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +12.7 -5.8 +18.0
  Dec 14, 2024 95   St. Bonaventure L 70-74 61%     7 - 5 +1.3 +8.7 -7.9
  Dec 20, 2024 14   St. John's L 70-72 26%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +12.6 +6.7 +5.9
  Dec 31, 2024 21   Marquette L 50-78 31%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -14.7 -9.9 -8.2
  Jan 05, 2025 24   @ Connecticut L 84-87 19%     7 - 8 1 - 3 +14.4 +21.5 -7.3
  Jan 08, 2025 75   Butler W 84-65 62%     8 - 8 2 - 3 +24.0 +15.3 +9.5
  Jan 11, 2025 147   Seton Hall W 91-85 82%     9 - 8 3 - 3 +4.5 +19.4 -14.9
  Jan 14, 2025 28   @ Creighton L 64-84 20%     9 - 9 3 - 4 -3.2 -1.1 -1.6
  Jan 17, 2025 46   @ Villanova L 73-75 30%     9 - 10 3 - 5 +11.4 +7.3 +4.0
  Jan 25, 2025 85   Georgetown W 78-68 63%     10 - 10 4 - 5 +14.6 +19.0 -3.3
  Jan 28, 2025 147   @ Seton Hall W 69-67 67%     11 - 10 5 - 5 +5.5 +3.5 +2.0
  Feb 01, 2025 14   @ St. John's L 66-68 14%     11 - 11 5 - 6 +17.6 +5.1 +12.6
  Feb 05, 2025 28   Creighton L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 08, 2025 75   @ Butler L 72-74 41%    
  Feb 12, 2025 44   Xavier L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 46   Villanova L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 19, 2025 85   @ Georgetown L 68-69 43%    
  Feb 25, 2025 21   @ Marquette L 67-77 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 24   Connecticut L 70-74 36%    
  Mar 05, 2025 112   DePaul W 76-69 76%    
  Mar 08, 2025 44   @ Xavier L 69-75 27%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.6 6.2 2.1 0.1 14.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 9.3 9.7 2.4 0.1 23.2 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 11.6 12.0 2.7 0.1 28.9 7th
8th 0.2 3.6 10.6 9.6 2.1 0.1 26.1 8th
9th 0.5 2.3 1.7 0.3 4.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.8 6.1 14.7 23.1 24.3 17.2 9.4 3.5 0.8 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 46.2% 1.3% 44.9% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 45.5%
12-8 3.5% 24.3% 3.1% 21.2% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.0 2.7 21.9%
11-9 9.4% 8.5% 3.6% 4.9% 10.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.0 8.6 5.1%
10-10 17.2% 2.8% 1.9% 0.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 16.7 0.9%
9-11 24.3% 0.8% 0.8% 11.3 0.1 0.1 24.1
8-12 23.1% 0.3% 0.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 23.1
7-13 14.7% 0.6% 0.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.6
6-14 6.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 6.1
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.9% 1.2% 1.8% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 97.1 1.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%