Preseason Rankings
Providence
Big East
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#59
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.8#241
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#47
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#74
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.1% 3.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 7.9% 7.9% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.5% 30.8% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.7% 28.9% 6.9%
Average Seed 7.9 7.9 9.0
.500 or above 61.5% 61.9% 22.2%
.500 or above in Conference 39.3% 39.6% 15.3%
Conference Champion 1.9% 2.0% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 11.3% 11.1% 30.3%
First Four5.0% 5.0% 2.4%
First Round27.9% 28.1% 5.7%
Second Round15.2% 15.4% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen4.9% 4.9% 0.8%
Elite Eight1.7% 1.8% 0.0%
Final Four0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Home) - 99.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 10
Quad 25 - 48 - 13
Quad 34 - 112 - 15
Quad 45 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 352   Holy Cross W 82-57 99%    
  Nov 08, 2025 76   Virginia Tech W 70-68 59%    
  Nov 11, 2025 278   Penn W 82-63 96%    
  Nov 14, 2025 82   @ Colorado L 69-70 50%    
  Nov 18, 2025 356   New Hampshire W 83-57 99%    
  Nov 22, 2025 90   Penn St. W 75-71 63%    
  Nov 27, 2025 26   Wisconsin L 69-74 32%    
  Dec 02, 2025 354   Fairleigh Dickinson W 85-59 99%    
  Dec 06, 2025 146   Rhode Island W 80-68 85%    
  Dec 09, 2025 168   Brown W 75-61 88%    
  Dec 13, 2025 66   @ Butler L 71-73 43%    
  Dec 19, 2025 101   Seton Hall W 70-62 75%    
  Jan 03, 2026 8   @ St. John's L 67-79 16%    
  Jan 07, 2026 4   Connecticut L 64-73 22%    
  Jan 10, 2026 50   @ Xavier L 71-75 36%    
  Jan 13, 2026 39   Villanova L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 16, 2026 24   Creighton L 70-73 42%    
  Jan 19, 2026 43   @ Marquette L 67-73 32%    
  Jan 24, 2026 69   Georgetown W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 27, 2026 4   @ Connecticut L 61-76 10%    
  Jan 30, 2026 39   @ Villanova L 63-69 30%    
  Feb 04, 2026 66   Butler W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 07, 2026 84   DePaul W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 11, 2026 101   @ Seton Hall W 67-65 55%    
  Feb 14, 2026 8   St. John's L 70-76 32%    
  Feb 21, 2026 84   @ DePaul W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 24, 2026 50   Xavier W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 28, 2026 24   @ Creighton L 67-76 24%    
  Mar 04, 2026 43   Marquette W 71-70 51%    
  Mar 07, 2026 69   @ Georgetown L 71-73 44%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 7.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.8 3.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.1 3.9 1.5 0.2 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.5 4.1 1.2 0.1 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.7 3.6 0.9 0.1 12.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 2.8 5.1 3.3 0.8 0.1 12.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 4.1 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.9 3.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 10.0 10th
11th 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.0 11th
Total 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.6 5.3 7.8 9.1 10.5 10.8 10.8 10.1 8.6 7.0 5.3 3.8 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 98.2% 0.2    0.2 0.1
17-3 73.6% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 41.4% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 17.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 43.7% 56.3% 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.2% 100.0% 27.7% 72.3% 2.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.6% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 2.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.3% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 4.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.3% 99.1% 10.9% 88.2% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0%
14-6 3.8% 96.9% 10.6% 86.3% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.5%
13-7 5.3% 92.1% 7.7% 84.4% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.4 91.5%
12-8 7.0% 80.8% 5.3% 75.5% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.3 79.7%
11-9 8.6% 63.0% 3.0% 60.1% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.2 61.9%
10-10 10.1% 40.3% 1.7% 38.7% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 0.8 0.0 6.0 39.3%
9-11 10.8% 15.8% 0.9% 14.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.0 9.1 15.1%
8-12 10.8% 4.5% 0.6% 3.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.3 3.9%
7-13 10.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.4 0.5%
6-14 9.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.0%
5-15 7.8% 7.8
4-16 5.3% 5.3
3-17 3.6% 3.6
2-18 1.8% 1.8
1-19 0.8% 0.8
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 30.5% 2.5% 28.0% 7.9 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.9 3.6 4.5 5.5 5.9 3.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 69.5 28.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 100.0