Providence
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.5 #65
Expected Predictive Rating +5.6 #93
Pace 78.8 #12
Improvement +1.6 #106

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #32 A- A- B B+ B
Defense #163 C+ C C- B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #143 1.33 #24 +4.3 #47
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #305 0.80 #119 -2.0 #282
Three Pointers 46% #87 1.08 #88 +4.0 #60
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #34 +6.3 #35
Freethrows 19.2 #99 78% #37 14.9 #54
Second Chance 33.4% #105 1.23 #18 0.41 #39
Turnovers 14.6% #71
Total Offense +8.4 #32

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #234 1.04 #54 +3.1 #78
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #86 0.66 #46 +0.0 #183
Three Pointers 40% #221 1.11 #299 -1.2 #234
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #125 +1.9 #124
Freethrows 15.6 #92 74% #241 11.5 #111
Second Chance 30.3% #163 1.01 #139 0.31 #145
Turnovers 15.4% #244
Total Defense +0.1 #163

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #66 -1.0% #89
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.3% #40 -2.7% #134
Possession Length 14.8 #13 17.7 #248
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #13 0.15 #118
Improvement +1.9 #83 -0.3 #206

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 5.0% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.0% 3.9% 1.1%
Average Seed 10.5 10.4 11.1
.500 or above 34.1% 41.3% 16.7%
.500 or above in Conference 15.2% 19.5% 4.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.2% 4.8% 20.0%
First Four1.8% 2.3% 0.7%
First Round3.0% 3.7% 1.3%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Home) - 70.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 62 - 10
Quad 23 - 66 - 16
Quad 35 - 110 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 320 Holy Cross W 89 - 79 97% +10  1 - 0 -3 +1 D+ C+ B- -5 D- A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 58 Virginia Tech L 101 - 107 OT 45% -0  1 - 1 +4 +11 B B+ B -6 D+ C- D
 Tue, Nov 11 182 Penn W 106 - 81 88% +10  2 - 1 +21 +18 A+ A+ F -0 A+ B- F
 Fri, Nov 14 78 @Colorado L 88 - 97 42% -4  2 - 2 +2 +9 C D A- -6 B- F C
 Tue, Nov 18 323 New Hampshire W 98 - 66 97% +13  3 - 2 +19 +22 A+ C A- -3 B F B-
 Sat, Nov 22 116 Penn St. W 77 - 65 70% +3  4 - 2 +15 +3 F B+ A+ +12 A+ B+ B
 Thu, Nov 27 35 Wisconsin L 83 - 104 31% -14  4 - 3 -7 +3 B+ B C- -8 C+ C- D-
 Fri, Nov 28 10 Florida L 78 - 90 13% -9  4 - 4 +8 +11 A+ D+ B -2 A+ C F
 Tue, Dec 2 348 Fairleigh Dickinson W 94 - 64 98% +23  5 - 4 +15 +20 A+ A+ C -4 C D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 122 Rhode Island W 90 - 71 80% +5  6 - 4 +19 +19 A+ A- C- -1 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 9 264 Brown W 86 - 79 94% +6  7 - 4 -2 +6 B C- D- -8 C C F
 Sat, Dec 13 59 @Butler L 110 - 113 2OT 35% +0  7 - 5 0 - 1 +10 +22 A+ B A+ -12 C B- F
 Fri, Dec 19 56 Seton Hall L 67 - 72 55% -3  7 - 6 0 - 2 +2 +3 C+ F A -1 C B+ A-
 Sat, Jan 3 18 @St. John's W 77 - 71 14% -4  8 - 6 1 - 2 +26 +9 F A+ A+ +17 A+ C+ A-
 Wed, Jan 7 7 Connecticut L 98 - 103 OT 20% +5  8 - 7 1 - 3 +12 +20 A+ A+ D+ -7 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 81 @Xavier L 84 - 97 43% -11  8 - 8 1 - 4 -3 +6 C C A+ -7 D+ B+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 33 Villanova L 82 - 88 40% -7  8 - 9 1 - 5 +5 +15 A+ A+ B- -10 F A+ C-
 Fri, Jan 16 44 Creighton W 93 - 88 50% +1  9 - 9 2 - 5 +13 +14 C+ A+ B+ -1 A+ F C
 Mon, Jan 19 102 @Marquette L 104 - 105 OT 53% -3  9 - 10 2 - 6 +7 +21 A+ A+ D -14 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 93 Georgetown W 86 - 80 71%
 Tue, Jan 27 7 @Connecticut L 72 - 87 8%
 Fri, Jan 30 33 @Villanova L 75 - 83 21%
 Wed, Feb 4 59 Butler W 89 - 87 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 99 DePaul W 84 - 78 72%
 Wed, Feb 11 56 @Seton Hall L 74 - 79 34%
 Sat, Feb 14 18 St. John's L 84 - 90 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 99 @DePaul W 81 - 80 51%
 Tue, Feb 24 81 Xavier W 89 - 85 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 44 @Creighton L 82 - 88 29%
 Wed, Mar 4 102 Marquette W 89 - 82 74%
 Sat, Mar 7 93 @Georgetown L 83 - 84 50%
Totals 15 - 16 8 - 12 +8 +8 A- A- B +0 C+ C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.7 0.1 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.4 5.1 1.7 0.2 10.7 5th
6th 0.5 5.5 8.3 3.2 0.2 0.0 17.9 6th
7th 0.5 5.8 10.8 4.1 0.3 21.5 7th
8th 0.3 4.4 9.9 3.9 0.3 18.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.6 7.8 3.7 0.3 14.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 4.0 2.5 0.2 8.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.3 0.2 4.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.1 8.2 15.5 20.1 20.9 16.3 9.9 3.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 74.3% 2.9% 71.4% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.5%
12-8 1.2% 63.5% 4.6% 58.9% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 61.7%
11-9 3.8% 31.2% 3.5% 27.7% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 2.6 28.7%
10-10 9.9% 11.5% 2.2% 9.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 8.8 9.5%
9-11 16.3% 2.6% 1.5% 1.1% 10.9 0.1 0.4 0.0 15.9 1.1%
8-12 20.9% 0.6% 0.6% 11.2 0.1 0.0 20.7
7-13 20.1% 0.8% 0.8% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 19.9
6-14 15.5% 0.3% 0.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 15.5
5-15 8.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 8.1
4-16 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 10.5 96.0 3.0%