Connecticut
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.5 #7
Expected Predictive Rating +28.7 #4
Pace 64.3 #302
Improvement -4.4 #345

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #23 A+ B+ C C B+
Defense #5 A+ A+ B+ C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #62 1.37 #14 +7.1 #11
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #296 0.98 #10 -0.4 #195
Three Pointers 42% #161 1.06 #114 +1.5 #132
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #14 +8.2 #13
Freethrows 17.9 #153 70% #277 12.5 #190
Second Chance 36.0% #43 1.12 #92 0.40 #44
Turnovers 16.2% #159
Total Offense +9.1 #23

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #140 0.89 #3 +4.4 #47
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #54 0.71 #104 -1.2 #275
Three Pointers 35% #340 0.79 #2 +7.2 #5
1st FG Attempt 0.81 #3 +10.4 #3
Freethrows 18.7 #258 72% #149 13.5 #248
Second Chance 25.6% #31 0.84 #9 0.21 #10
Turnovers 19.3% #44
Total Defense +11.4 #5

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #54 -1.0% #91
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 13.8% #16 -19.6% #3
Possession Length 17.9 #234 18.0 #294
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #136 0.10 #18
Improvement -2.8 #326 -1.7 #281

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.7% 7.6% 3.0%
#1 Seed 34.0% 37.1% 20.1%
Top 2 Seed 70.8% 74.6% 54.6%
Top 4 Seed 97.9% 98.6% 95.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.1 2.0 2.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 82.5% 85.9% 67.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.9% 98.2% 96.9%
Sweet Sixteen70.6% 71.7% 66.2%
Elite Eight40.6% 42.0% 34.4%
Final Four21.0% 22.1% 16.3%
Championship Game10.3% 10.8% 8.0%
National Champion4.8% 5.1% 3.7%

Next Game: Villanova (Home) - 81.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 26 - 2
Quad 1b5 - 111 - 3
Quad 210 - 120 - 4
Quad 35 - 025 - 4
Quad 45 - 030 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 331 New Haven W 79 - 55 100% +12  1 - 0 +10 +6 C+ A- D +5 C A+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 309 Umass Lowell W 110 - 47 99% +42  2 - 0 +52 +24 A+ A+ C +23 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 180 Columbia W 89 - 62 98% +16  3 - 0 +23 +18 A+ A+ A+ +6 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 15 12 BYU W 86 - 84 57% +9  4 - 0 +21 +16 A+ B+ F +4 B- D- A+
 Wed, Nov 19 2 Arizona L 67 - 71 51% -4  4 - 1 +16 +12 A+ D A+ +4 A+ F B
 Sun, Nov 23 343 Bryant W 72 - 49 100% +14  5 - 1 +8 -1 F C+ B- +11 A+ B- A+
 Fri, Nov 28 9 Illinois W 74 - 61 50% +10  6 - 1 +33 +13 A+ C+ D- +21 A+ A+ B
 Tue, Dec 2 19 @Kansas W 61 - 56 51% -2  7 - 1 +25 +7 B A+ F +19 A+ A+ B+
 Fri, Dec 5 308 East Texas A&M W 83 - 59 99% +13  8 - 1 +13 +13 B- C A+ +2 C- A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 9 10 Florida W 77 - 73 50% +2  9 - 1 +24 +17 A+ B+ B +8 B A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 38 Texas W 71 - 63 83% +6  10 - 1 +18 +4 A+ B F +15 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 59 Butler W 79 - 60 90% +10  11 - 1 1 - 0 +26 +9 A+ A+ F +17 A+ A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 99 @DePaul W 72 - 54 87% +5  12 - 1 2 - 0 +26 +7 B A+ F +20 A+ A+ A
 Wed, Dec 31 81 @Xavier W 90 - 67 83% +18  13 - 1 3 - 0 +33 +19 A+ A D+ +13 A+ A+ A
 Sun, Jan 4 102 Marquette W 73 - 57 95% +11  14 - 1 4 - 0 +18 +3 D- B- A +15 A+ A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 7 65 @Providence W 103 - 98 OT 80% -5  15 - 1 5 - 0 +16 +16 A+ D+ B- -0 D+ C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 99 DePaul W 72 - 60 94% +15  16 - 1 6 - 0 +14 +8 A+ F F +7 B A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 56 @Seton Hall W 69 - 64 76% +7  17 - 1 7 - 0 +18 +13 A+ A+ F +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 93 @Georgetown W 64 - 62 86% +4  18 - 1 8 - 0 +11 +7 F B- A+ +4 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 33 Villanova W 72 - 62 81%
 Tue, Jan 27 65 Providence W 87 - 72 92%
 Sat, Jan 31 44 @Creighton W 75 - 69 71%
 Tue, Feb 3 81 Xavier W 81 - 65 93%
 Fri, Feb 6 18 @St. John's W 73 - 72 50%
 Wed, Feb 11 59 @Butler W 78 - 70 77%
 Sat, Feb 14 93 Georgetown W 79 - 61 95%
 Wed, Feb 18 44 Creighton W 78 - 66 87%
 Sat, Feb 21 33 @Villanova W 69 - 65 63%
 Wed, Feb 25 18 St. John's W 76 - 70 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 56 Seton Hall W 71 - 58 89%
 Sat, Mar 7 102 @Marquette W 79 - 66 89%
Totals 28 - 3 18 - 2 +20 +9 A+ B+ C +11 A+ A+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 6.8 19.0 26.5 21.2 7.9 82.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.9 6.2 3.4 0.4 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.9 13.1 22.4 26.8 21.2 7.9 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 7.9    7.9
19-1 100.0% 21.2    21.2
18-2 98.7% 26.5    24.0 2.5
17-3 84.7% 19.0    13.6 5.2 0.1
16-4 51.6% 6.8    3.2 3.1 0.4
15-5 18.9% 1.1    0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 4.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 82.5% 82.5 70.2 11.5 0.7 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 7.9% 100.0% 62.8% 37.2% 1.3 5.9 1.9 0.1 100.0%
19-1 21.2% 100.0% 58.8% 41.2% 1.5 12.5 7.8 0.9 0.0 100.0%
18-2 26.8% 100.0% 52.6% 47.4% 1.8 10.3 12.3 3.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 22.4% 100.0% 47.0% 53.0% 2.3 4.0 10.0 6.8 1.4 0.1 100.0%
16-4 13.1% 100.0% 42.5% 57.5% 2.8 1.0 3.9 5.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.9% 100.0% 35.1% 64.9% 3.4 0.2 0.8 2.3 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 2.0% 100.0% 26.0% 74.0% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.5% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 4.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.1% 100.0% 8.0% 92.0% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 50.4% 49.6% 2.1 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.0% 100.0% 1.2 78.8 21.0 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4% 100.0% 1.3 70.8 28.1 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0% 100.0% 1.3 68.1 30.0 1.9