Connecticut
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.5#28
Expected Predictive Rating+14.2#35
Pace62.3#329
Improvement+0.1#193

Offense
Total Offense+10.7#13
First Shot+9.5#14
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#112
Layup/Dunks+5.5#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#28
Freethrows+1.4#95
Improvement-2.9#309

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#77
First Shot+1.1#140
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#14
Layups/Dunks+0.3#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#103
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#79
Freethrows-2.5#338
Improvement+3.0#47
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.3% 3.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 16.5% 24.5% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.5% 99.4% 97.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.2% 99.1% 97.0%
Average Seed 7.6 7.3 8.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round98.5% 99.4% 96.9%
Second Round56.0% 58.4% 51.4%
Sweet Sixteen14.5% 16.6% 10.4%
Elite Eight5.7% 6.4% 4.5%
Final Four1.7% 1.9% 1.2%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 23 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 36 - 5
Quad 27 - 413 - 9
Quad 34 - 117 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 266   Sacred Heart W 92-56 97%     1 - 0 +27.5 +9.1 +17.0
  Nov 09, 2024 353   New Hampshire W 92-53 99%     2 - 0 +22.7 +13.2 +9.7
  Nov 13, 2024 355   Le Moyne W 90-49 99%     3 - 0 +24.0 +16.2 +12.7
  Nov 19, 2024 335   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-46 99%     4 - 0 +20.9 +0.7 +19.2
  Nov 25, 2024 48   Memphis L 97-99 OT 63%     4 - 1 +9.1 +25.4 -16.2
  Nov 26, 2024 86   Colorado L 72-73 78%     4 - 2 +5.5 +14.8 -9.5
  Nov 27, 2024 75   Dayton L 67-85 75%     4 - 3 -10.5 +1.2 -13.2
  Nov 30, 2024 360   Maryland Eastern Shore W 99-45 99%     5 - 3 +34.8 +18.9 +16.8
  Dec 04, 2024 27   Baylor W 76-72 60%     6 - 3 +16.0 +19.5 -2.9
  Dec 08, 2024 44   @ Texas W 76-65 51%     7 - 3 +25.3 +18.2 +8.3
  Dec 14, 2024 9   Gonzaga W 77-71 34%     8 - 3 +24.8 +12.6 +12.3
  Dec 18, 2024 39   Xavier W 94-89 OT 67%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +15.1 +24.8 -9.8
  Dec 21, 2024 72   @ Butler W 78-74 65%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +14.5 +9.1 +5.5
  Jan 01, 2025 116   @ DePaul W 81-68 79%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +18.9 +14.6 +5.0
  Jan 05, 2025 88   Providence W 87-84 85%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +6.2 +20.3 -13.9
  Jan 08, 2025 45   @ Villanova L 66-68 51%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +12.2 +10.6 +1.3
  Jan 11, 2025 81   @ Georgetown W 68-60 68%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +17.7 +6.5 +11.8
  Jan 18, 2025 32   Creighton L 63-68 63%     13 - 5 5 - 2 +6.1 +8.1 -3.1
  Jan 21, 2025 72   Butler W 80-78 OT 81%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +7.0 +7.2 -0.2
  Jan 25, 2025 39   @ Xavier L 72-76 46%     14 - 6 6 - 3 +11.6 +11.0 +0.4
  Jan 29, 2025 116   DePaul W 72-61 90%     15 - 6 7 - 3 +11.4 +6.3 +6.3
  Feb 01, 2025 25   @ Marquette W 77-69 36%     16 - 6 8 - 3 +26.1 +18.4 +8.1
  Feb 07, 2025 13   St. John's L 62-68 48%     16 - 7 8 - 4 +9.0 +1.4 +7.5
  Feb 11, 2025 32   @ Creighton W 70-66 42%     17 - 7 9 - 4 +20.6 +8.7 +12.1
  Feb 15, 2025 166   @ Seton Hall L 68-69 OT 87%     17 - 8 9 - 5 +1.3 +3.1 -1.8
  Feb 18, 2025 45   Villanova W 66-59 71%     18 - 8 10 - 5 +15.7 +5.8 +11.1
  Feb 23, 2025 13   @ St. John's L 75-89 28%     18 - 9 10 - 6 +6.5 +12.9 -5.7
  Feb 26, 2025 81   Georgetown W 93-79 83%     19 - 9 11 - 6 +18.2 +30.2 -11.0
  Mar 01, 2025 88   @ Providence W 75-63 71%     20 - 9 12 - 6 +20.7 +16.9 +5.7
  Mar 05, 2025 25   Marquette W 72-66 57%     21 - 9 13 - 6 +18.6 +16.1 +3.3
  Mar 08, 2025 166   Seton Hall W 81-50 94%     22 - 9 14 - 6 +27.8 +17.1 +13.2
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 98.5% 17.4% 81.2% 7.6 0.4 1.9 5.2 9.0 20.9 37.3 20.5 3.2 0.2 1.5 98.2%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.5% 17.4% 81.2% 7.6 0.4 1.9 5.2 9.0 20.9 37.3 20.5 3.2 0.2 1.5 98.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 17.4% 100.0% 5.8 2.1 10.6 25.5 34.6 23.1 3.6 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 20.8% 99.8% 7.4 0.1 2.8 9.4 38.5 40.7 7.9 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 27.3% 98.6% 8.1 0.0 0.5 2.4 18.0 48.2 26.1 3.3 0.1
Lose Out 34.5% 97.0% 8.4 0.1 1.1 11.5 43.6 33.7 6.6 0.4