Connecticut
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +21.0 7
Expected Predictive Rating +26.8 3
Pace 63.6 319
Improvement -4.0 330

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- #16 A A- C+ C B
Defense A #9 A+ B+ B C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 100 67% 25 +5.7 21
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 304 49% 9 -0.7 215
Three Pointers 44% 125 37% 53 +3.5 67
1st FG Attempt 1.19 14 +8.5 14
Second Chance 37.5% 24 1.13 55 0.42 24
Turnovers 16.3% 144
Freethrows 0.30 189 71% 220 0.22 197
Total Offense +10.4 16

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 129 45% 4 +4.1 52
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 61 35% 73 -0.8 251
Three Pointers 35% 337 27% 2 +6.8 1
1st FG Attempt 0.82 3 +10.0 3
Second Chance 25.6% 30 0.91 40 0.23 26
Turnovers 19.8% 41
Freethrows 0.33 282 71% 123 0.24 261
Total Defense +10.6 9

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.0 58 -0.4 105
Shot Type Accuracy +7.2 14 -9.5 3
Possession Length 18.2 267 17.9 287
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 140 0.10 12
Improvement +0.0 #176 -4.0 #347

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4% 4% 1%
#1 Seed 29% 30% 15%
Top 2 Seed 76% 77% 59%
Top 4 Seed 100% 100% 98%
Top 6 Seed 100% 100% 100%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 2.0 2.0 2.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 82% 84% 61%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round99% 99% 98%
Sweet Sixteen71% 71% 65%
Elite Eight42% 42% 36%
Final Four20% 21% 16%
Championship Game10% 10% 7%
National Champion4% 4% 4%

Next Game: Georgetown (Home) - 94.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 35 - 3
Quad 1b5 - 09 - 3
Quad 210 - 019 - 3
Quad 36 - 025 - 3
Quad 45 - 030 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 334 New Haven W 79 - 55 100% +12  99% 1 - 0 B +10 B- +4 C+ B+ D B+ +7 C A D-
 Fri, Nov 7 318 Umass Lowell W 110 - 47 99% +42  98% 2 - 0 A+ +50 A+ +21 A+ A+ C- A+ +25 A+ A A+
 Mon, Nov 10 200 Columbia W 89 - 62 98% +16  89% 3 - 0 A +21 A+ +15 A+ B A A- +8 A+ B D
 Sat, Nov 15 21 BYU W 86 - 84 63% +9  87% 4 - 0 A +20 A- +11 A+ A- F A- +9 B- C- A
 Wed, Nov 19 2 Arizona L 67 - 71 47% -4  6% 4 - 1 A +18 A- +10 A D A+ B+ +7 A+ F C+
 Sun, Nov 23 342 Bryant W 72 - 49 100% +14  98% 5 - 1 B- +8 D -4 F+ B- C+ A+ +14 A B A+
 Fri, Nov 28 6 Illinois W 74 - 61 48% +10  99% 6 - 1 A+ +34 A- +10 A+ B D A+ +25 A+ A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 12 @Kansas W 61 - 56 46% -2  29% 7 - 1 A+ +27 B- +5 B- A+ F A+ +22 A+ A+ B-
 Fri, Dec 5 300 East Texas A&M W 83 - 59 99% +13  95% 8 - 1 B+ +13 A- +11 B- C+ A+ B- +4 C- A- B-
 Tue, Dec 9 4 Florida W 77 - 73 41% +2  73% 9 - 1 A+ +27 A+ +16 A+ B+ A- A +11 B A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 30 Texas W 71 - 63 81% +6  93% 10 - 1 A +20 C +1 A+ B- F A+ +19 A+ A B+
 Tue, Dec 16 75 Butler W 79 - 60 93% +10  75% 11 - 1 1 - 0 A+ +24 B- +4 B+ A+ F A+ +19 A+ A C-
 Sun, Dec 21 98 @DePaul W 72 - 54 88% +5  67% 12 - 1 2 - 0 A+ +26 B- +5 B- A D A+ +22 A+ A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 31 83 @Xavier W 90 - 67 85% +18  97% 13 - 1 3 - 0 A+ +33 A+ +16 A+ A D+ A+ +15 A A+ B
 Sun, Jan 4 85 Marquette W 73 - 57 94% +11  96% 14 - 1 4 - 0 A +20 C+ +2 D+ B A A+ +18 A+ A B-
 Wed, Jan 7 60 @Providence W 103 - 98 OT 80% -5  16% 15 - 1 5 - 0 A- +17 A +13 A+ C- C B- +4 C- C+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 98 DePaul W 72 - 60 95% +11  98% 16 - 1 6 - 0 B+ +14 B +6 A D D A- +9 C+ A A+
 Tue, Jan 13 53 @Seton Hall W 69 - 64 77% +7  74% 17 - 1 7 - 0 A +18 A- +10 A- A+ D A- +9 A F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 76 @Georgetown W 64 - 62 84% +4  80% 18 - 1 8 - 0 B+ +13 B- +5 D- B A+ B+ +8 B+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 32 Villanova W 75 - 67 OT 82% -2  17% 19 - 1 9 - 0 A +19 A- +11 C- A+ A+ A- +9 A+ F B
 Tue, Jan 27 60 Providence W 87 - 81 91% +4  91% 20 - 1 10 - 0 B+ +12 B +7 B B C+ B +5 A- B C+
 Sat, Jan 31 61 @Creighton W 85 - 58 81% +11  94% 21 - 1 11 - 0 A+ +39 A+ +28 A+ A+ B A+ +15 A+ B- B
 Tue, Feb 3 83 Xavier W 92 - 60 94% +23  97% 22 - 1 12 - 0 A+ +36 A+ +21 A+ C C- A+ +16 A+ A- A+
 Fri, Feb 6 20 @St. John's L 72 - 81 51% -3  20% 22 - 2 12 - 1 B+ +12 B+ +8 A+ B- C- B- +3 C+ F+ C+
 Wed, Feb 11 75 @Butler W 80 - 70 84% +3  67% 23 - 2 13 - 1 A +21 A+ +21 A A+ A- C+ +1 C- A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 14 76 Georgetown W 78 - 62 94%
 Wed, Feb 18 61 Creighton W 80 - 65 92%
 Sat, Feb 21 32 @Villanova W 70 - 66 64%
 Wed, Feb 25 20 St. John's W 77 - 71 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 53 Seton Hall W 72 - 58 90%
 Sat, Mar 7 85 @Marquette W 78 - 67 86%
Totals 28 - 3 18 - 2 +21 A- +10 A A- C+ A +11 A+ B+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- A- A B A- 42% 15% 44% B A B+ B A- C+ C C- C A A+ B- A A+ 40% 25% 35% C+ A+ B+ B B+ B D+ C+ C-
1.23 67% 49% 37% +7 +1 1.19 37% 1.1 .42 16% .30 71% .22 0.93 45% 35% 27% -10 0 0.82 26% 0.9 .23 20% .33 71% .22
Nov
3		 New Haven B- D+ A+ B- C 47% 6% 47% A- C+ B- A- B+ D A A+ A+ B+ C+ F A+ C- 39% 33% 29% B+ C A+ A+ A D- C A+ A-
1.19 55% 67% 36% +2 +2 1.11 32% 1.3 .42 18% .37 85% .31 0.83 58% 50% 21% -1 -2 0.96 12% 0.5 .06 17% .25 43% .11
Nov
7		 Umass Lowell A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 61% 7% 32% A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ C- B+ B- A- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ 43% 26% 31% B- A+ A+ B+ A A+ F F F
1.47 74% 75% 39% +15 +3 1.39 52% 1.1 .55 13% .34 77% .26 0.63 22% 0% 31% -27 0 0.48 21% 0.9 .18 28% .59 72% .43
Nov
10		 Columbia A+ A A+ A A+ 47% 8% 45% A A+ D A+ B A A+ F A+ A- B- D A+ A+ 40% 26% 34% A- A+ A C B D F D+ F
1.34 70% 50% 41% +11 +2 1.29 25% 1.4 .36 9% .48 66% .31 0.93 53% 42% 19% -9 0 0.83 29% 0.9 .26 20% .37 75% .28
Nov
15		 BYU A- A B+ A+ A+ 50% 15% 35% A+ A+ C+ A+ A- F A+ D+ A+ A- B- F B+ B+ 41% 12% 47% F B- B+ F C- A D- D D-
1.16 70% 43% 50% +15 +2 1.35 28% 1.4 .40 22% .46 67% .31 1.13 60% 67% 30% +2 +1 1.08 33% 1.4 .47 19% .38 78% .30
Nov
19		 Arizona A- A+ A C A+ 19% 33% 48% D+ A D- C D A+ A- F C- B+ B+ B+ A+ A+ 47% 33% 20% B- A+ D+ F F C+ F D+ F
1.06 70% 47% 32% +4 -3 1.04 17% 0.8 .14 8% .31 50% .15 1.12 57% 33% 11% -9 -1 0.82 43% 1.2 .53 16% .47 76% .36
Nov
23		 Bryant D D+ F F F 59% 6% 35% A F+ A D- B- C+ A B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A 24% 14% 62% B A A+ F B A+ F F F
1.10 53% 0% 28% -8 +3 0.92 45% 0.8 .38 12% .38 77% .30 0.75 22% 20% 30% -14 0 0.73 17% 1.2 .21 32% .47 95% .45
Nov
28		 Illinois A- C+ A+ B- A 35% 15% 50% A+ A+ A+ D B D A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 44% 8% 48% F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- C F D-
1.12 56% 63% 35% +3 0 1.10 36% 0.8 .28 15% .30 71% .21 0.92 43% 50% 20% -16 +2 0.75 31% 0.7 .21 15% .32 94% .30
Dec
2		 Kansas B- A+ C F B 26% 26% 49% D+ B- B+ A+ A+ F D- A+ D+ A+ A- A A+ A+ 33% 31% 36% A A+ A A+ A+ B- F B+ D
0.98 75% 33% 22% -6 -2 0.87 32% 1.3 .41 21% .16 75% .12 0.90 53% 29% 25% -9 -2 0.80 25% 0.6 .14 16% .40 71% .29
Dec
5		 East Texas A&M A- A F F C+ 60% 15% 25% B+ B- B D+ C+ A+ F A D- B- C C+ D D 29% 25% 46% A C- B A+ A- B- C+ F C-
1.26 70% 25% 29% +3 +2 1.13 38% 1.0 .38 9% .23 79% .18 0.90 57% 33% 36% 0 -1 1.00 21% 0.6 .12 20% .23 75% .17
Dec
9		 Florida A+ A A A+ A+ 37% 29% 33% C+ A+ B- A+ B+ A- C C C A A- F+ B- A- 64% 9% 28% F B C A+ A+ B F C+ F
1.14 63% 47% 41% +8 -1 1.16 23% 1.0 .23 13% .27 69% .19 1.08 53% 50% 31% -3 +3 1.02 43% 0.4 .16 18% .48 70% .34
Dec
12		 Texas C A+ A B+ A+ 43% 28% 28% C+ A+ B- B- B- F F+ F F A+ A+ B+ A A+ 44% 31% 24% B+ A+ C+ A A B+ F A D-
1.07 75% 46% 38% +12 -1 1.24 28% 1.0 .28 23% .25 54% .14 0.95 40% 36% 27% -11 -1 0.78 37% 1.0 .37 18% .52 68% .35
Dec
16		 Butler B- A- F B+ B 49% 20% 31% B B+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ F C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 6% 43% F A+ A+ B- A C- D F F+
1.13 68% 20% 38% +3 +1 1.10 47% 1.2 .56 21% .24 62% .15 0.86 35% 0% 23% -21 +3 0.65 27% 1.1 .30 14% .40 79% .32
Dec
21		 DePaul B- A+ F+ C+ B 35% 28% 37% C- B- A A- A D C- B C A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 41% 35% 24% A- A+ B+ A+ A+ B- D- A+ B-
1.05 69% 31% 35% +2 -1 1.04 38% 1.1 .41 22% .30 75% .23 0.79 35% 47% 25% -10 -2 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 19% .38 52% .20
Dec
31		 Xavier A+ C+ B+ A+ A+ 36% 16% 47% B- A+ B+ A+ A D+ D A+ C- A+ F+ A+ A+ A 38% 28% 34% C A A+ A A+ B F B- F+
1.24 60% 44% 50% +13 0 1.29 32% 1.1 .35 19% .24 79% .19 0.92 70% 27% 22% -5 -1 0.91 14% 0.8 .11 15% .36 68% .24
Jan
4		 Marquette C+ A- C- F D 42% 18% 40% C+ D+ A D+ B A A F B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 55% 4% 42% D- A+ B A+ A B- C- B+ C+
1.07 67% 33% 20% -6 +1 0.92 40% 0.9 .36 16% .37 67% .24 0.83 41% 0% 23% -17 +3 0.74 27% 0.7 .18 16% .33 63% .21
Jan
7		 Providence A C C A+ A+ 29% 26% 45% D+ A+ C- C C- C D+ A+ C+ B- A- A F C- 44% 18% 39% C+ C- B+ D- C+ A D- B- D
1.25 56% 38% 57% +15 -1 1.29 27% 1.0 .27 15% .25 83% .21 1.19 52% 30% 55% +8 +1 1.19 30% 1.3 .39 21% .41 74% .30
Jan
10		 DePaul B B+ B B+ A- 55% 16% 30% A+ A C+ F D D B+ A+ A+ A- B- F A C 39% 34% 27% A C+ A+ C A A+ C- C C-
1.12 63% 43% 38% +5 +2 1.16 30% 0.6 .19 22% .38 84% .32 0.93 56% 50% 27% +1 -2 1.00 21% 1.2 .25 23% .34 71% .24
Jan
13		 Seton Hall A- A- A+ F B+ 51% 11% 38% A A- A+ B+ A+ D A+ F A+ A- D- F A+ A 40% 30% 30% A- A F B- F+ A+ F A+ F+
1.07 63% 75% 21% 0 +2 1.05 43% 1.1 .47 26% .55 62% .34 0.99 65% 46% 0% -10 -1 0.79 49% 1.0 .46 22% .49 60% .30
Jan
17		 Georgetown B- F A+ F D- 31% 20% 49% B- D- A C- B A+ A+ C- A+ B+ A C+ D+ B 33% 36% 31% A+ B+ F C- F A+ A+ C- A+
1.08 43% 78% 18% -8 0 0.84 39% 0.9 .37 10% .45 71% .32 1.04 47% 38% 36% -3 -2 0.91 45% 1.1 .52 22% .19 78% .15
Jan
24		 Villanova A- D+ F A C- 35% 24% 41% C C- A+ A A+ A+ A+ A A+ A- A+ A+ B+ A+ 29% 25% 45% A A+ D+ F F B F F+ F
1.16 53% 17% 40% -3 -1 0.94 41% 1.2 .49 14% .40 77% .31 1.04 33% 23% 30% -13 -1 0.73 38% 1.4 .52 17% .41 77% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Providence B A- F A- B 39% 22% 39% C+ B A- D+ B C+ A+ F A+ B A F+ C- A+ 57% 13% 30% F+ A- A- D+ B C+ F C F
1.21 65% 27% 40% +4 0 1.10 37% 0.9 .34 14% .45 64% .29 1.12 50% 50% 36% -2 +2 1.02 29% 1.2 .35 15% .51 77% .39
Jan
31		 Creighton A+ F A+ A+ A+ 27% 22% 51% C A+ A+ A+ A+ B F+ F F A+ B F A+ A+ 34% 20% 46% C+ A+ A+ F B- B F B F
1.43 43% 55% 46% +9 -1 1.18 42% 1.8 .74 13% .14 43% .06 0.98 57% 50% 21% -7 0 0.88 20% 1.3 .27 17% .49 71% .34
Feb
3		 Xavier A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% A A+ A+ F C C- B A A- A+ B A+ D A+ 26% 36% 38% A A+ B+ A A- A+ F A F
1.34 83% 50% 45% +20 +2 1.46 43% 0.5 .21 19% .32 78% .25 0.88 55% 20% 38% -5 -3 0.86 22% 0.8 .16 19% .51 64% .32
Feb
6		 St. John's B+ C A+ A+ A+ 53% 11% 36% A A+ F+ A+ B- C- D- F F B- B- F A B- 48% 13% 39% C- C+ A F F+ C+ F B- F
1.05 52% 80% 47% +8 +2 1.23 21% 1.5 .31 22% .22 42% .09 1.18 55% 67% 28% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.8 .55 15% .53 71% .37
Feb
11		 Butler A+ F A+ A+ A+ 20% 24% 56% F+ A A A+ A+ A- D A- D+ C+ B- C- F C 52% 11% 37% D- C- A B+ A+ D+ B+ D B
1.32 40% 67% 43% +11 -2 1.20 40% 1.3 .53 13% .17 78% .13 1.16 54% 40% 41% +2 +2 1.11 28% 1.0 .28 13% .31 75% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 11.3 37.7 32.7 82.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.5 9.2 2.9 17.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 5.5 20.5 40.5 32.7 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 32.7    32.7
18-2 92.9% 37.7    27.2 10.4
17-3 55.2% 11.3    4.8 6.3 0.3
16-4 13.8% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.2
15-5 1.4% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 82.4% 82.4 64.8 17.1 0.5



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 32.7% 100.0% 59.5% 40.5% 1.6 16.0 14.3 2.2 0.1 100.0%
18-2 40.5% 100.0% 52.7% 47.3% 2.0 10.0 21.8 7.8 0.9 0.1 100.0%
17-3 20.5% 100.0% 45.3% 54.7% 2.4 2.7 9.4 6.4 2.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.5% 100.0% 42.5% 57.5% 2.9 0.3 1.8 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.7% 100.0% 39.1% 60.9% 3.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 52.8% 47.2% 2.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 19.5% 100.0% 1.4 59.8 37.9 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.5% 100.0% 1.8 34.6 53.3 11.4 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.3% 100.0% 1.9 30.4 53.9 14.5 1.2