Connecticut
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.0#24
Expected Predictive Rating+14.2#38
Pace62.6#328
Improvement-0.7#219

Offense
Total Offense+11.6#6
First Shot+10.2#4
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#105
Layup/Dunks+5.8#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#26
Freethrows+1.5#90
Improvement-2.4#307

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#83
First Shot+0.7#156
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#16
Layups/Dunks+0.1#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#79
Freethrows-2.7#339
Improvement+1.7#98
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.9% 3.2% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 12.9% 19.9% 5.1%
Top 6 Seed 39.7% 51.8% 26.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.3% 98.6% 95.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.7% 98.3% 95.0%
Average Seed 6.8 6.2 7.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 12.1% 20.3% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 0.3% 1.9%
First Round96.8% 98.4% 95.0%
Second Round63.9% 69.3% 57.9%
Sweet Sixteen25.8% 30.2% 20.8%
Elite Eight10.8% 13.1% 8.3%
Final Four4.0% 5.1% 2.9%
Championship Game1.4% 1.6% 1.1%
National Champion0.4% 0.6% 0.2%

Next Game: St. John's (Home) - 52.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 24 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 47 - 6
Quad 26 - 313 - 9
Quad 34 - 117 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 288   Sacred Heart W 92-56 98%     1 - 0 +26.6 +9.6 +15.6
  Nov 09, 2024 357   New Hampshire W 92-53 99%     2 - 0 +22.7 +13.6 +9.3
  Nov 13, 2024 355   Le Moyne W 90-49 99%     3 - 0 +25.1 +18.5 +11.5
  Nov 19, 2024 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-46 99%     4 - 0 +20.7 +0.3 +19.4
  Nov 25, 2024 41   Memphis L 97-99 OT 63%     4 - 1 +9.7 +25.3 -15.5
  Nov 26, 2024 98   Colorado L 72-73 83%     4 - 2 +3.9 +12.9 -9.2
  Nov 27, 2024 80   Dayton L 67-85 77%     4 - 3 -10.7 +1.0 -13.2
  Nov 30, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 99-45 99.5%    5 - 3 +34.8 +19.2 +16.5
  Dec 04, 2024 20   Baylor W 76-72 56%     6 - 3 +17.3 +19.3 -1.3
  Dec 08, 2024 30   @ Texas W 76-65 44%     7 - 3 +27.6 +19.7 +9.2
  Dec 14, 2024 11   Gonzaga W 77-71 39%     8 - 3 +23.7 +11.5 +12.3
  Dec 18, 2024 44   Xavier W 94-89 OT 71%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +14.1 +24.0 -10.0
  Dec 21, 2024 75   @ Butler W 78-74 68%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +14.0 +10.0 +4.1
  Jan 01, 2025 112   @ DePaul W 81-68 81%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +18.7 +14.3 +5.1
  Jan 05, 2025 66   Providence W 87-84 81%     12 - 3 4 - 0 +8.6 +22.3 -13.5
  Jan 08, 2025 46   @ Villanova L 66-68 56%     12 - 4 4 - 1 +11.4 +9.8 +1.2
  Jan 11, 2025 85   @ Georgetown W 68-60 70%     13 - 4 5 - 1 +17.5 +7.5 +10.6
  Jan 18, 2025 28   Creighton L 63-68 62%     13 - 5 5 - 2 +6.9 +9.4 -3.5
  Jan 21, 2025 75   Butler W 80-78 OT 82%     14 - 5 6 - 2 +7.0 +8.4 -1.3
  Jan 25, 2025 44   @ Xavier L 72-76 53%     14 - 6 6 - 3 +10.1 +10.0 -0.1
  Jan 29, 2025 112   DePaul W 72-61 90%     15 - 6 7 - 3 +11.7 +6.3 +6.7
  Feb 01, 2025 21   @ Marquette W 77-69 37%     16 - 6 8 - 3 +26.2 +18.5 +8.2
  Feb 07, 2025 14   St. John's W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 11, 2025 28   @ Creighton L 72-74 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 147   @ Seton Hall W 74-63 85%    
  Feb 18, 2025 46   Villanova W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 23, 2025 14   @ St. John's L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 26, 2025 85   Georgetown W 75-65 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 66   @ Providence W 74-70 64%    
  Mar 05, 2025 21   Marquette W 75-73 58%    
  Mar 08, 2025 147   Seton Hall W 76-60 94%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.0 7.1 1.9 12.1 1st
2nd 0.3 4.3 12.5 3.4 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 6.2 14.5 5.9 0.1 27.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 8.7 15.7 7.5 0.3 34.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.1 0.6 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.3 11.4 22.8 26.4 21.6 10.5 1.9 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 1.9    1.5 0.4
16-4 67.5% 7.1    2.5 3.6 0.9 0.0
15-5 13.9% 3.0    0.2 1.0 1.4 0.4
14-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.1% 12.1 4.2 5.0 2.4 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.9% 100.0% 31.9% 68.1% 2.7 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.5% 100.0% 28.7% 71.3% 4.2 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.9 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 21.6% 99.8% 22.9% 76.9% 5.7 0.1 1.0 2.9 5.2 6.1 4.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.7%
14-6 26.4% 98.9% 18.1% 80.7% 6.9 0.1 0.6 2.6 5.6 8.3 6.5 2.1 0.3 0.3 98.6%
13-7 22.8% 97.1% 14.2% 82.9% 7.8 0.1 0.6 2.4 5.3 7.6 4.7 1.3 0.1 0.7 96.6%
12-8 11.4% 93.1% 10.8% 82.3% 8.6 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.4 3.5 2.0 0.3 0.8 92.2%
11-9 4.3% 88.5% 7.3% 81.2% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.5 87.6%
10-10 1.0% 65.7% 7.8% 57.8% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 62.8%
9-11 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.3% 18.2% 79.1% 6.8 0.4 1.5 4.2 6.9 11.0 15.8 19.9 19.7 11.9 5.1 1.0 0.0 2.7 96.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.8 34.4 52.5 11.5 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 2.7 2.4 40.5 40.5 14.3 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 3.1 8.8 10.5 52.6 21.1 7.0