Connecticut
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+21.4#7
Expected Predictive Rating+27.3#4
Pace63.7#326
Improvement-0.9#241

Offense
Total Offense+9.9#16
First Shot+9.1#12
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#124
Layup/Dunks+9.0#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#246
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#103
Freethrows-0.9#242
Improvement-2.9#352

Defense
Total Defense+11.6#3
First Shot+10.8#5
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#126
Layups/Dunks+4.6#41
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.5#5
Freethrows-1.8#299
Improvement+2.0#58
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.8% 7.3% 2.8%
#1 Seed 33.9% 35.7% 18.5%
Top 2 Seed 68.4% 70.8% 48.4%
Top 4 Seed 95.8% 96.5% 89.7%
Top 6 Seed 99.6% 99.7% 98.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.2 2.1 2.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 76.1% 78.2% 59.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.3% 97.5% 95.6%
Sweet Sixteen72.8% 73.5% 67.0%
Elite Eight44.9% 45.7% 38.1%
Final Four24.2% 24.8% 19.3%
Championship Game12.3% 12.7% 8.9%
National Champion5.8% 6.0% 3.8%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 89.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 26 - 2
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 4
Quad 29 - 119 - 4
Quad 36 - 025 - 4
Quad 44 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 340 New Haven W 79-55 99.6%    1 - 0 +9.6 +6.0 +4.8
  Fri, Nov 7 304 Umass Lowell W 110-47 99%     2 - 0 +52.0 +23.7 +24.3
  Mon, Nov 10 142 Columbia W 89-62 97%     3 - 0 +25.2 +20.2 +6.4
  Sat, Nov 15 11 BYU W 86-84 57%     4 - 0 +21.6 +16.3 +5.2
  Wed, Nov 19 2 Arizona L 67-71 54%     4 - 1 +16.3 +12.0 +3.9
  Sun, Nov 23 311 Bryant W 72-49 99%     5 - 1 +11.2 +0.2 +12.7
  Fri, Nov 28 10 Illinois W 74-61 56%     6 - 1 +33.0 +12.6 +21.1
  Tue, Dec 2 17 @Kansas W 61-56 54%     7 - 1 +25.4 +8.0 +18.0
  Fri, Dec 5 302 East Texas A&M W 83-59 99%     8 - 1 +13.0 +11.8 +2.8
  Tue, Dec 9 12 Florida W 77-73 63%     9 - 1 +22.0 +16.4 +5.8
  Fri, Dec 12 41 Texas W 71-63 87%     10 - 1 +17.2 +4.8 +12.9
  Tue, Dec 16 50 Butler W 79-60 90%     11 - 1 1 - 0 +26.3 +9.4 +17.0
  Sun, Dec 21 115 @DePaul W 72-54 91%     12 - 1 2 - 0 +24.3 +6.2 +18.5
  Wed, Dec 31 97 @Xavier W 77-64 89%    
  Sun, Jan 4 105 Marquette W 81-61 97%    
  Wed, Jan 7 78 @Providence W 82-71 86%    
  Sat, Jan 10 115 DePaul W 78-57 98%    
  Tue, Jan 13 54 @Seton Hall W 69-60 80%    
  Sat, Jan 17 99 @Georgetown W 78-65 89%    
  Sat, Jan 24 32 Villanova W 71-61 83%    
  Tue, Jan 27 78 Providence W 85-68 95%    
  Sat, Jan 31 36 @Creighton W 72-67 68%    
  Tue, Feb 3 97 Xavier W 80-61 96%    
  Fri, Feb 6 19 @St. John's W 73-71 57%    
  Wed, Feb 11 50 @Butler W 76-68 77%    
  Sat, Feb 14 99 Georgetown W 81-62 96%    
  Wed, Feb 18 36 Creighton W 75-64 84%    
  Sat, Feb 21 32 @Villanova W 68-64 66%    
  Wed, Feb 25 19 St. John's W 76-68 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 54 Seton Hall W 72-57 91%    
  Sat, Mar 7 105 @Marquette W 78-64 89%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.7 9.0 17.6 21.9 17.5 7.1 76.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.8 5.9 3.1 0.5 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.1 4.7 9.0 15.3 20.8 22.4 17.5 7.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 7.1    7.1
19-1 100.0% 17.5    17.3 0.2
18-2 97.6% 21.9    20.0 1.8
17-3 84.8% 17.6    13.4 4.1 0.2
16-4 59.0% 9.0    5.0 3.4 0.6 0.0
15-5 29.9% 2.7    0.9 1.3 0.4 0.0
14-6 7.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 76.1% 76.1 63.8 10.9 1.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 7.1% 100.0% 70.5% 29.5% 1.2 5.6 1.5 0.0 100.0%
19-1 17.5% 100.0% 65.3% 34.7% 1.4 11.4 5.6 0.5 0.0 100.0%
18-2 22.4% 100.0% 57.9% 42.1% 1.7 10.0 10.2 2.1 0.1 100.0%
17-3 20.8% 100.0% 51.4% 48.6% 2.1 5.2 9.8 4.9 0.8 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.3% 100.0% 46.0% 54.0% 2.6 1.5 5.3 6.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.0% 100.0% 40.1% 59.9% 3.2 0.3 1.8 3.7 2.5 0.7 0.0 100.0%
14-6 4.7% 100.0% 37.4% 62.6% 3.8 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 2.1% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.7% 100.0% 33.5% 66.5% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.3% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.1% 96.2% 3.8% 92.3% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.0%
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 53.4% 46.6% 2.2 33.9 34.6 19.1 8.3 2.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.0% 100.0% 1.2 81.3 18.4 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1% 100.0% 1.3 74.8 24.9 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 1.3 71.2 28.8