Connecticut
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.0#11
Expected Predictive Rating+14.1#35
Pace62.8#330
Improvement+1.0#120

Offense
Total Offense+13.3#2
First Shot+12.3#1
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#134
Layup/Dunks+8.5#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#35
Freethrows+2.5#52
Improvement+1.0#97

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#83
First Shot+1.7#117
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#52
Layups/Dunks+2.2#94
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#170
Freethrows-1.8#299
Improvement-0.1#188
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.4% 1.7% 0.6%
#1 Seed 9.9% 11.9% 4.4%
Top 2 Seed 24.9% 29.2% 13.5%
Top 4 Seed 56.2% 62.1% 40.5%
Top 6 Seed 79.5% 84.1% 67.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.2% 99.0% 95.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.4% 98.5% 94.5%
Average Seed 4.3 4.0 5.2
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.3% 99.2% 95.9%
Conference Champion 45.6% 51.3% 30.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.4% 1.4%
First Round97.9% 98.8% 95.3%
Second Round82.0% 85.0% 74.1%
Sweet Sixteen49.6% 52.9% 40.9%
Elite Eight25.5% 27.7% 19.7%
Final Four12.6% 13.9% 9.2%
Championship Game5.8% 6.5% 4.0%
National Champion2.7% 3.0% 1.8%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 72.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 34 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 6
Quad 27 - 315 - 8
Quad 34 - 019 - 9
Quad 45 - 025 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 292   Sacred Heart W 92-56 98%     1 - 0 +26.2 +10.6 +14.3
  Nov 09, 2024 356   New Hampshire W 92-53 99%     2 - 0 +23.0 +14.9 +8.3
  Nov 13, 2024 332   Le Moyne W 90-49 99%     3 - 0 +27.8 +22.1 +10.7
  Nov 19, 2024 353   Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-46 99%     4 - 0 +19.4 -0.4 +18.8
  Nov 25, 2024 37   Memphis L 97-99 OT 68%     4 - 1 +10.2 +23.2 -12.9
  Nov 26, 2024 75   Colorado L 72-73 81%     4 - 2 +6.5 +13.9 -7.6
  Nov 27, 2024 41   Dayton L 67-85 72%     4 - 3 -7.1 +2.6 -11.2
  Nov 30, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 99-45 99.5%    5 - 3 +36.8 +19.1 +18.6
  Dec 04, 2024 13   Baylor W 76-72 65%     6 - 3 +17.0 +18.5 -0.8
  Dec 08, 2024 32   @ Texas W 76-65 56%     7 - 3 +26.5 +19.9 +7.8
  Dec 14, 2024 4   Gonzaga W 77-71 38%     8 - 3 +26.2 +13.3 +13.0
  Dec 18, 2024 47   Xavier W 94-89 OT 82%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +12.4 +22.5 -10.2
  Dec 21, 2024 73   @ Butler W 77-71 73%    
  Jan 01, 2025 100   @ DePaul W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 05, 2025 77   Providence W 76-63 88%    
  Jan 08, 2025 46   @ Villanova W 74-71 62%    
  Jan 11, 2025 71   @ Georgetown W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 18, 2025 50   Creighton W 79-69 81%    
  Jan 21, 2025 73   Butler W 80-68 87%    
  Jan 25, 2025 47   @ Xavier W 78-74 63%    
  Jan 29, 2025 100   DePaul W 81-66 91%    
  Feb 01, 2025 17   @ Marquette L 75-76 45%    
  Feb 07, 2025 12   St. John's W 77-73 63%    
  Feb 11, 2025 50   @ Creighton W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 116   @ Seton Hall W 70-59 85%    
  Feb 18, 2025 46   Villanova W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 23, 2025 12   @ St. John's L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 26, 2025 71   Georgetown W 79-67 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 77   @ Providence W 73-66 73%    
  Mar 04, 2025 17   Marquette W 78-73 67%    
  Mar 08, 2025 116   Seton Hall W 73-56 94%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.5 11.2 11.8 8.7 4.1 1.0 45.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.2 7.6 8.2 4.8 1.5 0.2 25.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.4 4.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.3 4.2 7.0 10.7 14.3 16.3 16.2 13.3 8.9 4.1 1.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
19-1 100.0% 4.1    4.1 0.0
18-2 97.9% 8.7    8.1 0.6
17-3 88.9% 11.8    9.6 2.2 0.1
16-4 69.0% 11.2    7.3 3.5 0.4 0.0
15-5 39.8% 6.5    2.9 2.8 0.7 0.0 0.0
14-6 14.3% 2.1    0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 45.6% 45.6 33.5 10.1 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.0% 100.0% 56.0% 44.0% 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 4.1% 100.0% 51.4% 48.6% 1.5 2.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 8.9% 100.0% 45.9% 54.1% 1.8 3.3 3.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 13.3% 100.0% 40.4% 59.6% 2.4 2.4 5.1 4.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.2% 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 3.2 0.8 3.3 5.5 4.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 16.3% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 4.2 0.1 1.0 3.6 5.2 4.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.3% 99.9% 25.4% 74.5% 5.3 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 4.1 3.7 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 10.7% 99.5% 20.8% 78.7% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 3.0 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
12-8 7.0% 98.8% 16.6% 82.2% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.1 98.6%
11-9 4.2% 94.5% 11.9% 82.6% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 93.8%
10-10 2.3% 84.8% 11.3% 73.5% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 82.9%
9-11 1.0% 50.8% 4.3% 46.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 48.6%
8-12 0.5% 19.8% 5.2% 14.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 15.5%
7-13 0.2% 7.6% 5.4% 2.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.2% 30.6% 67.6% 4.3 9.9 15.0 16.0 15.2 12.7 10.5 8.0 5.5 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.0 1.8 97.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.2 82.3 17.0 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 70.9 27.2 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 61.4 38.6