Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.0 #208
Expected Predictive Rating +0.1 #162
Pace 62.3 #341
Improvement +5.1 #12

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #249 D F C+ B+ B
Defense #175 C+ F B- C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #193 1.04 #311 -2.6 #276
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #323 0.76 #172 -3.1 #322
Three Pointers 49% #35 0.91 #301 +1.6 #127
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #284 -4.0 #291
Freethrows 19.4 #88 77% #46 15.0 #46
Second Chance 24.3% #330 0.94 #305 0.23 #339
Turnovers 15.8% #139
Total Offense -2.8 #249

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #70 1.07 #75 -0.5 #196
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #109 0.82 #279 -1.4 #288
Three Pointers 35% #330 0.98 #125 +3.8 #46
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #123 +1.9 #125
Freethrows 18.9 #267 71% #121 13.5 #238
Second Chance 41.0% #364 1.01 #132 0.41 #347
Turnovers 17.9% #87
Total Defense -0.2 #175

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #64 0.2% #179
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.1% #325 -3.9% #106
Possession Length 18.4 #278 18.4 #323
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #159 0.12 #31
Improvement +2.9 #41 +2.2 #60

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.4% 13.8% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.0
.500 or above 94.5% 97.7% 88.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 99.2%
Conference Champion 36.0% 47.0% 16.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round12.3% 13.7% 9.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Home) - 63.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 34 - 84 - 10
Quad 415 - 419 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 170 South Dakota St. L 66 - 75 42% -2  0 - 1 -10 -8 F F C+ -2 B- F A
 Thu, Nov 6 27 @Auburn L 57 - 95 4% -18  0 - 2 -20 -7 F F B+ -14 B F D
 Tue, Nov 11 189 @Tarleton St. L 62 - 76 34% -5  0 - 3 -13 -13 F F F +1 D+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 285 @Boston University W 91 - 79 54% +10  1 - 3 +8 +21 A+ C+ F -12 F F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 341 Maine W 72 - 65 86% +3  2 - 3 -8 +7 D A B- -14 C F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 10 @Florida L 45 - 80 2% -24  2 - 4 -12 -13 F D D+ -1 A+ F B+
 Fri, Nov 28 182 @Penn L 65 - 77 33% -4  2 - 5 -10 -6 F F A+ -5 C- F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 126 Hofstra L 58 - 78 31% -12  2 - 6 -18 -13 D- F C+ -6 C- B- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 197 La Salle W 66 - 60 48% +4  3 - 6 +3 -1 D- D B +5 C D- A+
 Thu, Dec 4 354 Rider W 68 - 66 88% +1  4 - 6 1 - 0 -14 -3 C F C -10 D- F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 274 Fairfield W 74 - 63 73% +10  5 - 6 2 - 0 +2 +1 C+ F C+ +1 D+ A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 214 @Princeton W 59 - 56 40% +2  6 - 6 +3 -1 F F A+ +4 A+ F C
 Sun, Dec 14 204 @Vermont L 59 - 66 38% -7  6 - 7 -7 -3 F C F -5 A+ F F
 Mon, Dec 29 270 @Sacred Heart W 80 - 72 50% +8  7 - 7 3 - 0 +5 +8 C+ F C -3 D+ D- C
 Fri, Jan 2 288 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 65 76% +6  8 - 7 4 - 0 -0 +0 D- D+ C- -0 A+ D A-
 Sun, Jan 4 327 Manhattan W 73 - 66 83% +4  9 - 7 5 - 0 -6 -6 C- F B+ -0 B- C D
 Fri, Jan 9 169 @Siena W 63 - 59 31% +9  10 - 7 6 - 0 +6 +10 B- D+ A+ -3 B- F B-
 Sun, Jan 11 220 @St. Peter's L 63 - 76 40% -9  10 - 8 6 - 1 -14 +1 F B- C -16 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 175 Quinnipiac W 83 - 71 55% +12  11 - 8 7 - 1 +8 +13 A+ B C- -5 A+ F D-
 Mon, Jan 19 160 @Marist W 68 - 55 28% +6  12 - 8 8 - 1 +16 +8 A- F C +9 A+ C- B
 Thu, Jan 22 227 @Iona L 60 - 61 42% -1  12 - 9 8 - 2 -2 -2 D B F +0 A- C C
 Sat, Jan 24 220 St. Peter's W 67 - 63 64%
 Sun, Feb 1 270 Sacred Heart W 76 - 70 71%
 Thu, Feb 5 288 @Mount St. Mary's W 68 - 67 55%
 Sat, Feb 7 354 @Rider W 69 - 62 74%
 Thu, Feb 12 160 Marist W 63 - 62 50%
 Sun, Feb 15 175 @Quinnipiac L 68 - 73 33%
 Fri, Feb 20 169 Siena W 67 - 66 54%
 Sun, Feb 22 227 Iona W 72 - 68 64%
 Fri, Feb 27 344 @Canisius W 67 - 61 70%
 Sun, Mar 1 352 @Niagara W 67 - 60 73%
Totals 18 - 13 14 - 6 -3 -3 D F C+ +0 C+ F B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.6 13.0 12.2 5.8 1.2 36.0 1st
2nd 0.0 2.4 10.8 7.4 1.0 0.1 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 7.3 7.4 0.8 0.0 16.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 4.0 6.6 1.1 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.5 1.7 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.2 0.1 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.8 10.8 18.3 22.9 21.2 13.2 5.9 1.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
17-3 99.1% 5.8    5.6 0.3
16-4 92.1% 12.2    8.9 3.1 0.2
15-5 61.4% 13.0    4.4 6.1 2.2 0.3 0.0
14-6 15.6% 3.6    0.3 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 36.0% 36.0 20.4 10.6 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.2% 28.0% 28.0% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9
17-3 5.9% 20.9% 20.9% 14.1 0.2 0.7 0.4 4.7
16-4 13.2% 18.3% 18.3% 14.6 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.1 10.8
15-5 21.2% 15.2% 15.2% 14.8 0.0 0.8 2.1 0.3 18.0
14-6 22.9% 11.8% 11.8% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.5 20.2
13-7 18.3% 9.4% 9.4% 15.2 0.1 1.0 0.5 16.6
12-8 10.8% 5.6% 5.6% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 10.2
11-9 4.8% 3.6% 3.6% 15.6 0.1 0.1 4.6
10-10 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
9-11 0.3% 0.3
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.4% 12.4% 0.0% 14.8 87.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.2 15.2 50.0 30.3 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%