Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -1.4 182
Expected Predictive Rating +0.7 151
Pace 62.4 335
Improvement +8.4 1

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #227 D+ D C+ B+ B
Defense C #142 B- F+ B- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 149 53% 299 -1.4 233
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 324 37% 191 -3.1 323
Three Pointers 47% 51 31% 301 +1.1 142
1st FG Attempt 0.95 274 -3.4 279
Second Chance 24.6% 332 1.00 206 0.25 318
Turnovers 16.4% 151
Freethrows 0.34 80 78% 14 0.26 34
Total Offense -2.3 227

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 91 52% 50 +0.3 163
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 95 42% 315 -1.6 306
Three Pointers 35% 336 32% 84 +4.3 31
1st FG Attempt 0.97 92 +3.0 83
Second Chance 40.8% 365 1.01 141 0.41 354
Turnovers 18.8% 76
Freethrows 0.35 304 71% 121 0.25 293
Total Defense +0.8 142

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.0 57 -0.1 154
Shot Type Accuracy -4.1 314 -2.6 75
Possession Length 18.4 291 18.3 319
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 169 0.13 46
Improvement +3.9 #23 +4.5 #15

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20% 21% 18%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 84% 93% 73%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round20% 21% 18%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Marist (Home) - 56.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 74 - 9
Quad 417 - 321 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 193 South Dakota St. L 66 - 75 53% -2  31% 0 - 1 D- -11 F -11 F F C C -0 B- F+ B+
 Thu, Nov 6 28 @Auburn L 57 - 95 4% -18  3% 0 - 2 F -20 F -11 F D- B+ F+ -10 B F D+
 Tue, Nov 11 214 @Tarleton St. L 62 - 76 44% -5  17% 0 - 3 D- -14 F -14 F D- F C+ +1 D D+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 275 @Boston University W 91 - 79 58% +10  95% 1 - 3 B +9 A+ +18 A+ C+ F D- -8 D F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 338 Maine W 72 - 65 89% +3  77% 2 - 3 D+ -8 C+ +3 D B+ B F+ -9 B- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 4 @Florida L 45 - 80 1% -24  0% 2 - 4 D -9 F -14 F D+ C B- +3 A+ F B+
 Fri, Nov 28 185 @Penn L 65 - 77 39% -4  29% 2 - 5 D -11 F+ -8 F D A+ C- -3 D+ F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 117 Hofstra L 58 - 78 34% -12  2% 2 - 6 F+ -17 F -14 D F B- D+ -4 C- B- A-
 Sun, Nov 30 226 La Salle W 66 - 60 58% +4  88% 3 - 6 C+ +3 D+ -3 D D+ B- B+ +6 C F+ A+
 Thu, Dec 4 354 Rider W 68 - 66 92% +1  63% 4 - 6 1 - 0 F+ -15 F+ -9 C- F C+ D -6 D F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 262 Fairfield W 74 - 63 76% +10  98% 5 - 6 2 - 0 C+ +2 C- -1 B F C+ B- +4 C B A
 Wed, Dec 10 221 @Princeton W 59 - 56 45% +2  71% 6 - 6 C+ +3 D+ -3 D- F A+ B+ +7 A+ F C
 Sun, Dec 14 224 @Vermont L 59 - 66 46% -7  0% 6 - 7 D+ -7 D -6 F C D C- -3 A- D- F+
 Mon, Dec 29 287 @Sacred Heart W 80 - 72 61% +8  99% 7 - 7 3 - 0 C+ +4 B- +5 C+ D- C+ C -1 D D- C+
 Fri, Jan 2 289 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 65 80% +4  74% 8 - 7 4 - 0 C -0 D+ -3 D D+ C- B- +3 A D+ C+
 Sun, Jan 4 323 Manhattan W 73 - 66 86% +4  80% 9 - 7 5 - 0 D+ -6 F+ -9 C F B- B- +3 B- C+ D
 Fri, Jan 9 181 @Siena W 63 - 59 38% +9  94% 10 - 7 6 - 0 B- +6 B +6 C+ D+ A C+ +1 B F B-
 Sun, Jan 11 228 @St. Peter's L 63 - 76 47% -9  0% 10 - 8 6 - 1 D- -14 D+ -2 F B- C F -13 F F A
 Sat, Jan 17 195 Quinnipiac W 83 - 71 65% +12  90% 11 - 8 7 - 1 B- +7 A- +11 A B C- C- -3 A- F+ F+
 Mon, Jan 19 163 @Marist W 68 - 55 35% +6  88% 12 - 8 8 - 1 A- +16 B- +5 B+ F C+ A +12 A+ D+ B-
 Thu, Jan 22 247 @Iona L 60 - 61 51% -1  29% 12 - 9 8 - 2 C- -3 D -6 D B F B- +3 B- C C+
 Sat, Jan 24 228 St. Peter's W 67 - 59 69% +11  97% 13 - 9 9 - 2 C +1 D+ -3 D+ D+ B B +5 A+ F A+
 Sun, Feb 1 287 Sacred Heart W 75 - 58 80% +8  93% 14 - 9 10 - 2 B- +7 C- -1 F A- A+ A- +9 B B- A+
 Thu, Feb 5 289 @Mount St. Mary's W 87 - 70 62% +10  90% 15 - 9 11 - 2 B+ +13 A- +10 A+ F C- C+ +2 C+ D- D
 Sat, Feb 7 354 @Rider W 73 - 47 82% +16  98% 16 - 9 12 - 2 A- +15 B+ +8 B A+ F A+ +13 A+ D- F+
 Thu, Feb 12 163 Marist W 64 - 62 57%
 Sun, Feb 15 195 @Quinnipiac L 69 - 71 43%
 Fri, Feb 20 181 Siena W 69 - 66 61%
 Sun, Feb 22 247 Iona W 73 - 67 73%
 Fri, Feb 27 346 @Canisius W 68 - 60 77%
 Sun, Mar 1 335 @Niagara W 67 - 60 74%
Totals 20 - 11 16 - 4 -1 C- -2 D+ D C+ C +1 B- F+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D C- D D 40% 13% 47% B D+ D- C- D C+ B- B+ B+ C B D B- B- 42% 23% 35% C B- F C+ F+ B- D C+ D+
1.05 53% 37% 31% -4 +1 0.95 25% 1.0 .25 16% .34 78% .26 1.07 52% 42% 32% -3 0 0.97 41% 1.0 .41 19% .35 71% .24
Nov
3		 South Dakota St. F F F+ F 49% 0% 51% A+ F D F F C A+ A A+ C A- B+ F B- 44% 23% 33% C+ B- F C F+ B+ F F F
0.94 38% 28% -15 +3 0.80 23% 0.7 .15 16% .46 81% .37 1.07 48% 33% 41% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.0 .39 20% .46 77% .36
Nov
6		 Auburn F D- F F F 31% 12% 57% B F D D D- B+ A+ D+ A+ F+ C- F A B- 34% 21% 45% A- B F F+ F D+ F B- F
0.84 47% 17% 25% -14 +1 0.76 23% 0.9 .20 16% .42 71% .30 1.41 63% 60% 29% +3 0 1.06 60% 1.2 .74 12% .62 73% .45
Nov
11		 Tarleton St. F D- F F F 42% 9% 49% B+ F B+ F D- F A A- A+ C+ C F A+ F+ 45% 37% 18% B+ D F A D+ B+ F B F
0.84 53% 25% 18% -15 +2 0.76 38% 0.7 .26 29% .46 79% .36 1.03 57% 58% 22% +4 -2 1.06 42% 0.8 .35 23% .44 72% .32
Nov
15		 Boston University A+ C+ F A+ A+ 33% 13% 53% C+ A+ B D+ C+ F C A+ B+ D- D- D F F+ 27% 20% 53% B+ D C F F D- D- A C-
1.41 60% 17% 67% +24 +1 1.51 35% 1.0 .35 17% .30 88% .26 1.23 67% 44% 42% +10 -1 1.20 25% 1.6 .41 16% .35 63% .22
Nov
19		 Maine C+ B- A+ F D- 40% 14% 47% B- D D- A+ B+ B A+ F+ A+ F+ D B- A+ B 47% 18% 35% F+ B- F D F A+ F F+ F
1.16 65% 50% 20% -5 +1 0.93 32% 1.5 .48 16% .60 65% .38 1.05 63% 33% 17% -8 +1 0.88 47% 1.1 .53 27% .67 70% .47
Nov
21		 Florida F D F F F 40% 16% 44% A F D+ D D+ C F+ A+ D+ B- A+ D+ D- A 40% 19% 40% A A+ F D F B+ F+ F+ F
0.69 45% 13% 18% -20 +1 0.64 17% 0.6 .10 17% .20 82% .16 1.22 37% 44% 37% -6 0 0.91 51% 1.2 .59 18% .43 78% .34
Nov
28		 Penn F+ C B F F 40% 16% 44% B- F F+ C D A+ C- A- C C- C F A+ C- 46% 29% 25% D+ D+ F+ F+ F C- F A+ C+
0.96 61% 44% 12% -12 +1 0.79 23% 0.9 .21 7% .24 73% .17 1.13 55% 64% 25% +3 -1 1.06 37% 1.2 .43 16% .40 52% .21
Nov
29		 Hofstra F F F D+ F+ 30% 11% 59% B+ D F+ F F B- F+ A+ C- D+ F A+ F C- 33% 24% 43% C C- D+ A- B- A- F F F
0.86 44% 17% 31% -9 +1 0.85 22% 0.4 .10 13% .24 86% .21 1.16 69% 8% 43% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.9 .33 21% .38 85% .32
Nov
30		 La Salle D+ D D C D 34% 17% 49% C D C- D D+ B- D B+ D+ B+ D+ A+ B- C+ 48% 21% 31% D C F B+ F+ A+ F+ F+ F
1.04 50% 33% 35% -3 0 0.96 27% 1.0 .27 16% .21 73% .15 0.95 60% 22% 31% -4 +1 0.95 50% 0.8 .41 30% .41 78% .32
Dec
4		 Rider F+ D A+ C+ C- 34% 12% 54% D+ C- F C- F C+ F D F+ D A- F B- D+ 52% 25% 23% F D F F F A+ F+ A- D+
1.08 53% 67% 37% +4 +1 1.12 15% 1.0 .15 13% .20 64% .13 1.05 43% 55% 30% -5 0 0.93 48% 1.2 .59 24% .33 63% .21
Dec
7		 Fairfield C- C B A B+ 40% 16% 44% D+ B F F F C+ A+ A A+ B- B- A F+ C- 38% 23% 38% C+ C F A+ B A F+ A D+
1.15 59% 43% 42% +7 +1 1.16 15% 0.5 .08 14% .49 81% .40 0.98 50% 27% 39% -3 0 0.96 40% 0.6 .25 20% .31 63% .20
Dec
10		 Princeton D+ C- F F+ F+ 43% 14% 43% B- D- F D F A+ A- A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ B- A+ 55% 9% 36% F A+ F C+ F C F F+ F
1.02 58% 17% 26% -8 +1 0.89 10% 1.0 .10 9% .38 90% .34 0.97 25% 0% 31% -23 +3 0.61 45% 1.0 .45 17% .44 81% .36
Dec
14		 Vermont D F A+ F F 48% 11% 41% A F C C- C D C- A B- C- F+ F A+ A- 38% 19% 43% C A- F B- D- F+ F F F
1.01 43% 60% 28% -8 +2 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 15% .32 81% .26 1.13 69% 50% 17% -5 0 0.93 34% 0.9 .31 12% .47 83% .39
Dec
29		 Sacred Heart B- D+ D A C+ 35% 6% 59% B- C+ F C+ D- C+ A+ D A+ C C F C- D- 30% 21% 49% B- D F B D- C+ D A- C-
1.21 59% 33% 41% +7 +2 1.18 22% 1.1 .25 14% .40 70% .28 1.09 57% 50% 35% +3 -1 1.06 37% 0.9 .34 20% .32 71% .23
Jan
2		 Mount St. Mary's D+ D+ C F F+ 36% 12% 52% B D F A+ D+ C- A+ B- A+ B- B F A+ A+ 54% 13% 33% F+ A F A+ D+ C+ F C F
1.08 53% 40% 27% -7 +1 0.90 19% 1.3 .26 14% .67 78% .52 0.93 52% 50% 13% -12 +2 0.83 43% 0.8 .32 23% .52 68% .35
Jan
4		 Manhattan F+ A+ A F C- 41% 8% 51% B+ C F D F B- A+ F B+ B- A F A+ B- 51% 28% 21% C- B- D A- C+ D A+ F A+
1.09 75% 50% 28% +3 +2 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 13% .34 65% .22 0.98 41% 56% 25% -6 0 0.89 31% 0.8 .26 13% .14 88% .12
Jan
9		 Siena B F F A+ C- 48% 9% 43% A+ C+ C D- D+ A C B+ C+ C+ C- C- A B- 30% 33% 37% B B F A F B- A- D B+
1.16 43% 25% 47% 0 +2 1.07 32% 0.8 .26 13% .28 77% .21 1.09 62% 43% 25% -2 -2 0.93 55% 0.8 .42 18% .20 78% .16
Jan
11		 St. Peter's D+ C- A+ F F 43% 17% 39% C+ F C B B- C C+ A- B+ F F+ C+ F F 38% 38% 24% A F F D F A F B+ F
1.02 55% 50% 11% -13 +1 0.78 35% 1.2 .41 19% .42 81% .34 1.23 64% 36% 56% +9 -2 1.16 52% 1.1 .55 23% .63 70% .44
Jan
17		 Quinnipiac A- F F A+ A 37% 9% 53% B A D+ A+ B C- A+ B- A+ C- A- C+ A A 53% 24% 22% D- A- B- F F+ F+ F D+ F
1.24 44% 25% 52% +8 +1 1.21 30% 1.4 .41 18% .49 74% .36 1.06 46% 33% 27% -10 +1 0.84 29% 1.4 .42 13% .45 73% .33
Jan
19		 Marist B- A- A+ F B+ 39% 24% 37% C+ B+ F C F C+ A+ A+ A+ A B+ B+ A+ A+ 41% 27% 32% D+ A+ F+ B D+ B- F F+ F
1.05 69% 60% 20% +2 0 1.05 13% 1.0 .13 19% .51 81% .42 0.85 50% 33% 14% -14 -1 0.73 32% 1.0 .32 20% .43 86% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
22		 Iona D F B D+ D- 48% 16% 36% B- D B+ C+ B F C- F D- B- A+ A+ F B- 24% 18% 58% B B- F+ A- C C+ D- B- D
0.99 48% 43% 31% -6 +1 0.93 41% 1.0 .41 22% .25 58% .15 1.01 27% 25% 42% -3 -1 0.96 31% 0.8 .25 18% .30 67% .20
Jan
24		 St. Peter's D+ F F A+ D- 56% 7% 37% A D+ F A D+ B A- A+ A+ B A- A- A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% C A+ F A F A+ F B F
1.06 39% 0% 47% -6 +3 0.95 25% 1.3 .32 17% .48 88% .42 0.93 44% 30% 16% -18 0 0.64 60% 0.8 .47 25% .51 71% .36
Feb
1		 Sacred Heart C- D F F F 46% 12% 42% B- F B- A A- A+ B A+ A A- A F A- B- 33% 33% 35% A B A F+ B- A+ F F F
1.18 57% 17% 24% -10 +2 0.86 36% 1.3 .46 8% .32 84% .27 0.91 46% 46% 29% -4 -2 0.90 19% 1.2 .23 25% .38 89% .33
Feb
5		 Mount St. Mary's A- A- A+ A A+ 30% 10% 60% B A+ F C- F C- A A+ A+ C+ A+ F+ F C+ 52% 15% 33% D C+ F+ C- D- D F A+ F
1.23 67% 60% 40% +10 +1 1.24 13% 1.0 .13 14% .41 84% .35 0.99 42% 43% 40% -5 +2 0.96 35% 1.1 .38 20% .51 55% .28
Feb
7		 Rider B+ A A D+ B- 59% 10% 31% B+ B A A+ A+ F A+ A A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 32% 41% 27% A- A+ C- F D- F+ F A+ F+
1.27 70% 50% 33% +8 +3 1.23 45% 1.3 .60 19% .45 76% .34 0.82 14% 39% 17% -21 -3 0.55 33% 1.1 .37 14% .47 52% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 2.5 19.8 31.3 23.7 7.3 84.5 1st
2nd 0.2 5.9 3.8 0.4 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 2.3 0.1 3.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.1 0.2 1.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.4 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.3 2.5 10.9 23.7 31.7 23.7 7.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 7.3    7.3
17-3 100.0% 23.7    23.3 0.4
16-4 98.7% 31.3    27.0 4.2 0.1
15-5 83.6% 19.8    6.6 9.5 3.3 0.3
14-6 22.4% 2.5    0.1 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.3
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 84.5% 84.5 64.3 14.6 4.4 1.0 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 7.3% 28.8% 28.8% 13.7 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 5.2
17-3 23.7% 23.7% 23.7% 14.4 0.2 2.9 2.4 0.2 18.1
16-4 31.7% 19.3% 19.3% 14.9 0.0 1.4 3.9 0.8 25.6
15-5 23.7% 18.0% 18.0% 15.1 0.0 0.5 2.7 1.1 19.4
14-6 10.9% 14.9% 14.9% 15.3 0.1 0.8 0.7 9.3
13-7 2.5% 11.3% 11.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.2
12-8 0.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 14.7 80.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 13.7 3.8 34.4 53.1 8.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2%