Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#192
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#201
Pace63.2#309
Improvement+2.2#97

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#293
First Shot-1.2#211
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#336
Layup/Dunks-3.8#315
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#72
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#88
Freethrows-2.1#298
Improvement+1.2#133

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#98
First Shot+3.3#73
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#228
Layups/Dunks+0.3#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#59
Freethrows-0.6#231
Improvement+1.1#123
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.8% 38.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.3 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 2.2% 0.0%
First Round26.2% 37.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 31 - 32 - 8
Quad 417 - 718 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 213   Vermont W 65-51 65%     1 - 0 +8.3 -2.0 +11.6
  Nov 13, 2024 35   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 42-63 6%     1 - 1 -4.7 -23.3 +19.0
  Nov 17, 2024 188   Princeton L 57-68 60%     1 - 2 -15.2 -6.8 -10.4
  Nov 20, 2024 65   @ Rutgers L 63-74 12%     1 - 3 +0.4 -3.7 +3.7
  Nov 22, 2024 72   @ Butler L 39-78 13%     1 - 4 -28.5 -25.9 -8.3
  Nov 25, 2024 237   @ Umass Lowell L 74-81 49%     1 - 5 -8.4 -5.7 -2.3
  Nov 27, 2024 184   Texas San Antonio L 74-76 49%     1 - 6 -3.3 -6.2 +3.0
  Nov 29, 2024 101   @ Troy W 72-68 20%     2 - 6 +11.1 +11.7 -0.3
  Dec 06, 2024 356   @ Canisius W 60-52 83%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -3.9 -17.4 +14.0
  Dec 08, 2024 311   @ Niagara W 80-62 67%     4 - 6 2 - 0 +11.7 +23.2 -7.0
  Dec 13, 2024 297   Boston University W 64-61 80%     5 - 6 -7.5 +1.5 -8.4
  Dec 17, 2024 84   @ Stanford L 68-74 15%     5 - 7 +3.4 +3.3 -0.1
  Dec 19, 2024 26   @ St. Mary's L 68-73 5%     5 - 8 +12.6 +16.3 -4.5
  Jan 03, 2025 325   Fairfield W 67-54 85%     6 - 8 3 - 0 +0.5 -1.9 +4.3
  Jan 10, 2025 266   @ Sacred Heart W 66-65 55%     7 - 8 4 - 0 -2.0 -9.1 +7.1
  Jan 12, 2025 235   Manhattan W 69-62 69%     8 - 8 5 - 0 +0.2 -4.3 +5.1
  Jan 16, 2025 204   @ Quinnipiac L 76-81 42%     8 - 9 5 - 1 -4.7 +4.6 -9.2
  Jan 18, 2025 254   Siena W 64-58 72%     9 - 9 6 - 1 -1.8 -5.0 +4.0
  Jan 23, 2025 287   @ St. Peter's W 48-37 61%     10 - 9 7 - 1 +6.5 -13.4 +22.0
  Jan 25, 2025 325   @ Fairfield W 75-54 70%     11 - 9 8 - 1 +14.0 +4.7 +10.9
  Jan 31, 2025 259   Mount St. Mary's L 58-66 73%     11 - 10 8 - 2 -16.1 -8.5 -8.8
  Feb 02, 2025 299   @ Rider W 66-64 63%     12 - 10 9 - 2 -3.2 -4.2 +1.2
  Feb 06, 2025 311   Niagara W 64-59 83%     13 - 10 10 - 2 -6.8 -12.9 +6.3
  Feb 08, 2025 356   Canisius W 69-51 92%     14 - 10 11 - 2 +0.6 -10.1 +11.9
  Feb 14, 2025 235   @ Manhattan L 75-79 49%     14 - 11 11 - 3 -5.3 +2.4 -7.9
  Feb 16, 2025 267   Marist L 60-61 75%     14 - 12 11 - 4 -9.6 -8.8 -0.8
  Feb 21, 2025 266   Sacred Heart L 59-60 74%     14 - 13 11 - 5 -9.5 -18.8 +9.3
  Feb 23, 2025 255   @ Iona W 77-70 OT 53%     15 - 13 12 - 5 +4.7 +5.9 -1.2
  Feb 28, 2025 299   Rider L 78-83 80%     15 - 14 12 - 6 -15.7 +4.6 -20.7
  Mar 02, 2025 204   Quinnipiac W 73-63 63%     16 - 14 13 - 6 +4.8 +1.2 +3.8
  Mar 06, 2025 267   @ Marist W 75-53 56%     17 - 14 14 - 6 +18.9 +14.1 +7.7
Projected Record 17 - 14 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 26.8% 26.8% 15.3 0.0 2.2 14.1 10.5 73.2
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.8% 26.8% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 2.2 14.1 10.5 73.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 26.8% 100.0% 15.3 0.0 8.1 52.5 39.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 19.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 24.4%
Lose Out 29.5%