Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#198
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#178
Pace63.3#310
Improvement+0.8#151

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#296
First Shot-1.3#220
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#336
Layup/Dunks-3.9#315
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#87
Freethrows-2.1#304
Improvement-0.6#217

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#95
First Shot+3.4#81
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#235
Layups/Dunks+0.4#155
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#138
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#64
Freethrows-0.6#232
Improvement+1.5#111
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.8% 23.2% 20.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 96.7% 98.1% 89.4%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 40.0% 43.5% 21.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.2% 2.1% 3.0%
First Round22.0% 22.4% 19.4%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Home) - 84.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 31 - 42 - 9
Quad 417 - 519 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 240   Vermont W 65-51 70%     1 - 0 +6.9 -1.2 +9.5
  Nov 13, 2024 38   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 42-63 7%     1 - 1 -6.6 -22.9 +16.7
  Nov 17, 2024 129   Princeton L 57-68 46%     1 - 2 -11.6 -6.0 -7.6
  Nov 20, 2024 63   @ Rutgers L 63-74 11%     1 - 3 +0.4 -2.2 +2.2
  Nov 22, 2024 75   @ Butler L 39-78 14%     1 - 4 -29.0 -25.0 -9.7
  Nov 25, 2024 203   @ Umass Lowell L 74-81 42%     1 - 5 -6.6 -4.9 -1.4
  Nov 27, 2024 202   Texas San Antonio L 74-76 51%     1 - 6 -4.1 -7.5 +3.6
  Nov 29, 2024 111   @ Troy W 72-68 24%     2 - 6 +9.8 +10.2 +0.0
  Dec 06, 2024 352   @ Canisius W 60-52 80%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -2.5 -16.8 +14.7
  Dec 08, 2024 316   @ Niagara W 80-62 68%     4 - 6 2 - 0 +11.4 +23.3 -7.4
  Dec 13, 2024 294   Boston University W 64-61 78%     5 - 6 -6.8 +2.5 -8.6
  Dec 17, 2024 78   @ Stanford L 68-74 14%     5 - 7 +3.9 +1.7 +1.9
  Dec 19, 2024 31   @ St. Mary's L 68-73 5%     5 - 8 +11.6 +14.9 -4.1
  Jan 03, 2025 326   Fairfield W 67-54 85%     6 - 8 3 - 0 +0.4 -4.1 +6.4
  Jan 10, 2025 288   @ Sacred Heart W 66-65 61%     7 - 8 4 - 0 -3.5 -8.9 +5.5
  Jan 12, 2025 271   Manhattan W 69-62 75%     8 - 8 5 - 0 -1.7 -4.4 +3.3
  Jan 16, 2025 187   @ Quinnipiac L 76-81 39%     8 - 9 5 - 1 -3.8 +4.6 -8.3
  Jan 18, 2025 246   Siena W 64-58 71%     9 - 9 6 - 1 -1.6 -4.5 +3.6
  Jan 23, 2025 272   @ St. Peter's W 48-37 58%     10 - 9 7 - 1 +7.3 -13.1 +22.5
  Jan 25, 2025 326   @ Fairfield W 75-54 72%     11 - 9 8 - 1 +13.3 +2.3 +12.7
  Jan 31, 2025 260   Mount St. Mary's L 58-66 73%     11 - 10 8 - 2 -16.1 -8.5 -8.8
  Feb 02, 2025 303   @ Rider W 66-64 64%     12 - 10 9 - 2 -3.5 -3.6 +0.2
  Feb 06, 2025 316   Niagara W 69-59 84%    
  Feb 08, 2025 352   Canisius W 74-60 91%    
  Feb 14, 2025 271   @ Manhattan W 70-68 54%    
  Feb 16, 2025 211   Marist W 61-58 65%    
  Feb 21, 2025 288   Sacred Heart W 73-65 78%    
  Feb 23, 2025 256   @ Iona W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 28, 2025 303   Rider W 68-59 80%    
  Mar 02, 2025 187   Quinnipiac W 68-66 59%    
  Mar 06, 2025 211   @ Marist L 59-61 42%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 6.9 16.1 12.5 3.6 40.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 6.8 13.9 6.8 0.4 28.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 8.0 11.0 6.2 0.7 27.7 3rd
4th 0.3 1.3 0.8 0.1 2.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.4 9.7 18.8 27.0 23.6 12.9 3.6 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 3.6    3.6
17-3 96.6% 12.5    10.1 2.3 0.1
16-4 68.2% 16.1    8.8 6.1 1.2
15-5 25.6% 6.9    1.9 3.2 1.8 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 40.0% 40.0 24.5 11.9 3.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 3.6% 35.5% 35.5% 13.7 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 2.3
17-3 12.9% 29.3% 29.3% 14.7 0.1 1.3 2.1 0.2 9.1
16-4 23.6% 25.2% 25.2% 15.1 0.0 0.8 3.8 1.3 17.6
15-5 27.0% 22.5% 22.5% 15.4 0.2 3.1 2.8 20.9
14-6 18.8% 19.2% 19.2% 15.7 0.0 1.2 2.4 15.2
13-7 9.7% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8 0.4 1.2 8.2
12-8 3.4% 13.7% 13.7% 15.9 0.1 0.4 3.0
11-9 0.9% 14.8% 14.8% 16.0 0.1 0.8
10-10 0.1% 0.1
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.8% 22.8% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.6 3.0 10.7 8.5 77.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 13.7 0.8 39.7 48.4 11.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%