Canisius
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.8 #344
Expected Predictive Rating -8.5 #308
Pace 62.8 #332
Improvement +0.5 #154

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #353 F D D D+ D
Defense #278 D C F C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #291 0.81 #365 -8.4 #362
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #85 0.76 #170 +1.8 #87
Three Pointers 40% #200 0.97 #245 -1.4 #230
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #357 -7.9 #357
Freethrows 16.0 #257 70% #267 11.2 #269
Second Chance 25.8% #307 1.02 #202 0.26 #290
Turnovers 18.2% #291
Total Offense -8.3 #353

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #288 1.28 #323 -0.1 #180
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #280 0.83 #291 +0.5 #155
Three Pointers 48% #34 1.05 #224 -4.2 #326
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #296 -3.8 #295
Freethrows 16.2 #131 72% #153 11.7 #128
Second Chance 30.2% #160 1.05 #183 0.32 #174
Turnovers 13.6% #332
Total Defense -3.5 #278

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #297 0.3% #190
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.9% #356 7.0% #307
Possession Length 19.2 #341 17.4 #195
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #266 0.18 #221
Improvement -0.9 #230 +1.4 #98

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.6% 2.1% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 3.3% 9.4% 1.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.9% 5.3% 18.7%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Away) - 20.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 70 - 10
Quad 410 - 1010 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 73 @Dayton L 48 - 88 3% -21  0 - 1 -29 -12 F C F -22 F F F
 Sat, Nov 8 136 @St. Bonaventure L 70 - 89 7% -7  0 - 2 -14 +4 A F C- -21 C- F F
 Wed, Nov 12 306 Mercyhurst W 58 - 55 48% +3  1 - 2 -8 -10 C+ F F +2 C A- B+
 Mon, Nov 17 98 @High Point L 50 - 93 4% -25  1 - 3 -35 -19 F C+ F -18 F D- F
 Fri, Nov 21 330 Maryland Eastern Shore W 60 - 57 57% +3  2 - 3 -11 -5 C+ B- D- -5 C D C-
 Sun, Nov 23 362 Binghamton W 75 - 66 75% +3  3 - 3 -10 +4 D A+ C- -13 C F F
 Sat, Nov 29 201 Buffalo L 53 - 71 27% -8  3 - 4 -24 -21 F D+ D- -4 C C D+
 Fri, Dec 5 220 @St. Peter's L 57 - 69 15% -6  3 - 5 0 - 1 -13 -9 F B- C -5 A F D+
 Sun, Dec 7 169 @Siena L 52 - 74 10% -14  3 - 6 0 - 2 -20 -15 F D- F -7 D- A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 341 @Maine W 70 - 43 37% +16  4 - 6 +18 +5 B C F +16 A+ F A
 Tue, Dec 16 122 @Rhode Island L 45 - 62 6% -3  4 - 7 -11 -18 F F F +5 A A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 118 @Duquesne L 59 - 103 6% -22  4 - 8 -38 -14 D- D F -23 F C- F
 Fri, Jan 2 274 Fairfield W 85 - 81 40% +4  5 - 8 1 - 2 -5 +10 C A- A+ -15 D+ D- F
 Sun, Jan 4 270 Sacred Heart W 82 - 78 40% -4  6 - 8 2 - 2 -5 +4 F A- D -9 F C D
 Fri, Jan 9 327 @Manhattan W 70 - 64 33% -1  7 - 8 3 - 2 -1 -6 F F B+ +4 C A+ B-
 Sun, Jan 11 227 @Iona L 48 - 74 15% -8  7 - 9 3 - 3 -27 -17 F C A+ -14 F F A+
 Wed, Jan 14 352 Niagara L 54 - 59 65% -3  7 - 10 3 - 4 -21 -15 F F F -7 F A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 288 Mount St. Mary's L 68 - 78 44% +3  7 - 11 3 - 5 -20 -4 B- F D -16 F B+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 270 @Sacred Heart L 66 - 69 20% +2  7 - 12 3 - 6 -6 -10 D+ F D +4 D A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 274 @Fairfield L 66 - 75 21%
 Fri, Jan 30 160 Marist L 57 - 66 20%
 Sun, Feb 1 169 Siena L 62 - 70 22%
 Tue, Feb 3 352 @Niagara L 62 - 64 42%
 Thu, Feb 5 175 @Quinnipiac L 63 - 77 10%
 Fri, Feb 13 227 Iona L 67 - 72 32%
 Sun, Feb 15 327 Manhattan W 73 - 71 56%
 Fri, Feb 20 354 @Rider L 63 - 65 43%
 Sun, Feb 22 288 @Mount St. Mary's L 63 - 71 25%
 Fri, Feb 27 208 Merrimack L 61 - 67 30%
 Sun, Mar 1 175 Quinnipiac L 66 - 74 24%
Totals 10 - 20 6 - 14 -12 -8 F D D -4 D C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.2 0.1 3.3 7th
8th 0.5 2.7 2.9 0.5 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.7 6.2 1.3 0.0 12.8 9th
10th 0.6 6.2 9.6 3.1 0.1 19.7 10th
11th 0.0 1.6 9.6 13.5 4.9 0.3 29.9 11th
12th 1.0 6.5 8.9 3.0 0.3 0.0 19.7 12th
13th 2.1 3.0 1.0 0.1 6.2 13th
Total 3.2 11.2 20.1 23.5 19.9 12.8 6.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 16.7% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
10-10 2.4% 2.4
9-11 6.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.1
8-12 12.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.7
7-13 19.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.9
6-14 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 23.5
5-15 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.1
4-16 11.2% 11.2
3-17 3.2% 3.2
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.2%