Canisius
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.0#353
Expected Predictive Rating-9.0#296
Pace61.9#352
Improvement-1.1#270

Offense
Total Offense-7.9#355
First Shot-8.4#361
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#153
Layup/Dunks-6.5#346
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#282
Freethrows-1.7#273
Improvement-1.8#320

Defense
Total Defense-5.0#335
First Shot-2.4#251
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#320
Layups/Dunks+0.4#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#199
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#267
Freethrows-0.6#225
Improvement+0.8#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 1.4% 5.6% 1.0%
.500 or above in Conference 4.9% 16.0% 4.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.1% 20.6% 44.8%
First Four0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Siena (Away) - 7.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 61 - 10
Quad 48 - 129 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 67 @Dayton L 48-88 2%     0 - 1 -28.5 -13.2 -19.5
  Sat, Nov 8 111 @St. Bonaventure L 70-89 4%     0 - 2 -12.2 +8.2 -22.3
  Wed, Nov 12 328 Mercyhurst W 58-55 48%     1 - 2 -9.6 -12.3 +3.2
  Mon, Nov 17 93 @High Point L 50-93 3%     1 - 3 -34.7 -19.3 -17.8
  Fri, Nov 21 341 Maryland Eastern Shore W 60-57 55%     2 - 3 -11.2 -4.8 -5.8
  Sun, Nov 23 349 Binghamton W 75-66 57%     3 - 3 -5.8 +4.9 -9.5
  Sat, Nov 29 215 Buffalo L 53-71 26%     3 - 4 -24.3 -20.2 -5.7
  Fri, Dec 5 329 @St. Peter's L 57-69 27%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -18.7 -12.9 -6.8
  Sun, Dec 7 161 @Siena L 57-73 7%    
  Sat, Dec 13 326 @Maine L 58-65 26%    
  Tue, Dec 16 110 @Rhode Island L 58-78 3%    
  Mon, Dec 22 135 @Duquesne L 63-81 5%    
  Fri, Jan 2 294 Fairfield L 67-70 41%    
  Sun, Jan 4 255 Sacred Heart L 71-76 34%    
  Fri, Jan 9 310 @Manhattan L 67-75 24%    
  Sun, Jan 11 174 @Iona L 65-80 9%    
  Wed, Jan 14 347 Niagara W 65-63 55%    
  Sat, Jan 17 307 Mount St. Mary's L 66-68 44%    
  Thu, Jan 22 255 @Sacred Heart L 68-79 17%    
  Sat, Jan 24 294 @Fairfield L 64-73 22%    
  Fri, Jan 30 159 Marist L 55-65 19%    
  Sun, Feb 1 161 Siena L 60-70 20%    
  Tue, Feb 3 347 @Niagara L 62-66 34%    
  Thu, Feb 5 154 @Quinnipiac L 63-79 7%    
  Fri, Feb 13 174 Iona L 68-77 21%    
  Sun, Feb 15 310 Manhattan L 70-72 44%    
  Fri, Feb 20 335 @Rider L 63-68 31%    
  Sun, Feb 22 307 @Mount St. Mary's L 63-71 24%    
  Fri, Feb 27 277 Merrimack L 62-66 36%    
  Sun, Mar 1 154 Quinnipiac L 66-76 18%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.9 0.1 3.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.5 1.6 0.2 5.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.6 2.6 0.5 7.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 4.4 3.8 0.9 0.0 10.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.5 5.8 1.6 0.1 0.0 15.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 3.8 7.6 6.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 21.3 12th
13th 1.4 4.7 8.4 8.7 5.7 1.9 0.2 31.1 13th
Total 1.4 4.8 9.4 12.8 15.7 15.2 13.6 10.2 7.2 4.9 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 16.7% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.3% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
11-9 1.3% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.3
10-10 2.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.6
9-11 4.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.8
8-12 7.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.1
7-13 10.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.2
6-14 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.6
5-15 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.2
4-16 15.7% 15.7
3-17 12.8% 12.8
2-18 9.4% 9.4
1-19 4.8% 4.8
0-20 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%