Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.1 #160
Expected Predictive Rating -1.9 #203
Pace 66.2 #262
Improvement -3.7 #329

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #318 D C- C- F D-
Defense #47 B+ C+ B+ D A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #296 1.11 #232 -3.1 #288
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #65 0.81 #108 +3.0 #50
Three Pointers 39% #230 0.86 #340 -4.2 #314
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #299 -4.4 #301
Freethrows 12.0 #359 79% #16 9.5 #338
Second Chance 26.3% #294 1.14 #68 0.30 #220
Turnovers 17.5% #251
Total Offense -5.7 #318

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #221 1.17 #187 +0.5 #155
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #25 0.69 #86 -1.8 #318
Three Pointers 35% #328 0.85 #16 +6.0 #8
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #49 +4.7 #49
Freethrows 20.4 #318 71% #88 14.4 #300
Second Chance 27.8% #86 1.10 #267 0.31 #143
Turnovers 19.2% #51
Total Defense +5.6 #47

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.2% #313 -2.0% #41
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.3% #280 -7.4% #56
Possession Length 17.9 #227 17.2 #171
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #271 0.12 #33
Improvement -0.8 #227 -2.9 #329

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.9% 24.7% 19.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 99.4% 99.9% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 99.7% 96.6%
Conference Champion 17.8% 24.7% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round22.9% 24.6% 19.6%
Second Round0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Home) - 65.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 52 - 7
Quad 417 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 81 @Xavier L 62 - 66 16% +1  0 - 1 +6 -3 +10
 Sun, Nov 9 221 @Dartmouth W 75 - 56 52% +8  1 - 1 +18 -1 C D+ F +19 A+ C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 168 Harvard L 54 - 56 64% -1  1 - 2 -6 -14 F F F +8 A+ C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 333 Army W 76 - 65 89% +4  2 - 2 -3 -2 D- B- C- +0 C- A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 307 Lehigh W 78 - 55 85% +13  3 - 2 +12 +2 B- F A- +10 A+ D F
 Fri, Dec 5 288 Mount St. Mary's W 64 - 56 83% +2  4 - 2 1 - 0 -2 -13 D C+ F +10 A+ B- A+
 Sun, Dec 7 327 Manhattan W 80 - 68 89% +3  5 - 2 2 - 0 -1 -8 F D+ C +5 C+ A+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 343 @Bryant W 82 - 74 79% +6  6 - 2 -1 +8 A+ D+ F -9 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 16 113 @Georgia Tech L 76 - 87 26% -8  6 - 3 -5 +10 B- A+ C -15 F D- A
 Sun, Dec 21 242 Stony Brook W 70 - 51 76% +13  7 - 3 +12 -3 F C+ A- +15 A+ A+ B
 Mon, Dec 29 175 @Quinnipiac L 58 - 64 43% -3  7 - 4 2 - 1 -4 -11 F C F +7 A+ F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 220 @St. Peter's L 59 - 69 52% -3  7 - 5 2 - 2 -11 -11 F F C +0 A+ F C
 Sun, Jan 4 227 Iona W 83 - 38 74% +21  8 - 5 3 - 2 +38 +8 D A+ A+ +30 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 270 @Sacred Heart W 76 - 72 62% -2  9 - 5 4 - 2 +1 +7 C- A+ C -6 D- F B+
 Sun, Jan 11 354 @Rider W 71 - 49 83% +12  10 - 5 5 - 2 +12 -1 C F C- +14 A A C
 Sat, Jan 17 274 Fairfield W 82 - 67 81% +13  11 - 5 6 - 2 +6 +7 B A+ F -1 A+ F C
 Mon, Jan 19 208 Merrimack L 55 - 68 72% -6  11 - 6 6 - 3 -19 -15 F F D -5 F A+ A-
 Thu, Jan 22 169 @Siena L 50 - 69 42% -4  11 - 7 6 - 4 -17 -14 F F A- -6 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 24 175 Quinnipiac W 71 - 67 65%
 Fri, Jan 30 344 @Canisius W 66 - 57 80%
 Sun, Feb 1 352 @Niagara W 67 - 57 82%
 Thu, Feb 5 354 Rider W 71 - 55 93%
 Sat, Feb 7 274 @Fairfield W 70 - 67 61%
 Thu, Feb 12 208 @Merrimack L 62 - 63 50%
 Sun, Feb 15 169 Siena W 66 - 62 64%
 Fri, Feb 20 327 @Manhattan W 74 - 67 75%
 Sun, Feb 22 270 Sacred Heart W 75 - 66 80%
 Sun, Mar 1 220 St. Peter's W 66 - 60 73%
Totals 18 - 10 13 - 7 +0 -6 D C- C- +6 B+ C+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.3 9.5 4.9 17.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.5 11.1 6.1 0.3 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 9.3 8.4 0.7 19.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 6.3 9.5 1.6 0.0 18.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.9 7.6 2.6 0.0 14.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.4 1.5 0.1 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.4 8.7 16.7 24.0 24.5 16.2 5.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 93.9% 4.9    3.5 1.3 0.1
15-5 58.3% 9.5    3.2 4.1 1.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 13.4% 3.3    0.3 1.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.8% 17.8 7.0 6.4 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 5.2% 37.2% 37.2% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.3
15-5 16.2% 30.9% 30.9% 13.9 0.1 1.3 2.8 0.8 0.0 11.2
14-6 24.5% 25.7% 25.7% 14.4 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.7 0.1 18.2
13-7 24.0% 21.8% 21.8% 14.8 0.1 1.5 3.3 0.4 18.8
12-8 16.7% 18.5% 18.5% 15.1 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.6 13.6
11-9 8.7% 11.6% 11.6% 15.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 7.7
10-10 3.4% 9.6% 9.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.0
9-11 1.1% 5.4% 5.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.1
8-12 0.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.9% 22.9% 0.0% 14.4 77.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 12.9 0.3 25.8 54.8 18.9 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%