Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#267
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#191
Pace61.5#343
Improvement-3.8#320

Offense
Total Offense-6.4#332
First Shot-3.9#286
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#318
Layup/Dunks-1.3#228
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#55
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#208
Freethrows-3.7#357
Improvement-4.8#348

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#160
First Shot-0.1#183
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#121
Layups/Dunks-0.8#204
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#207
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#144
Freethrows-0.3#204
Improvement+1.0#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 16.8% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.0% 4.1% 0.0%
First Round7.0% 14.5% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 32 - 12 - 1
Quad 419 - 921 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 241   @ Harvard L 66-79 34%     0 - 1 -14.7 -1.9 -13.6
  Nov 09, 2024 226   @ Richmond W 79-72 31%     1 - 1 +6.3 +9.3 -2.7
  Nov 15, 2024 323   Army W 91-88 OT 74%     2 - 1 -9.5 +12.0 -21.5
  Nov 19, 2024 180   Dartmouth W 75-62 42%     3 - 1 +9.1 +2.4 +6.5
  Nov 23, 2024 353   New Hampshire W 54-49 84%     4 - 1 -11.4 -19.1 +8.3
  Nov 30, 2024 280   @ Lehigh L 69-74 43%     4 - 2 -9.0 +1.6 -11.0
  Dec 06, 2024 259   Mount St. Mary's W 53-50 59%     5 - 2 1 - 0 -5.1 -17.3 +12.5
  Dec 08, 2024 235   @ Manhattan W 82-75 33%     6 - 2 2 - 0 +5.7 +8.7 -2.7
  Dec 17, 2024 324   @ Stony Brook W 68-66 54%     7 - 2 -5.0 +4.3 -8.9
  Dec 21, 2024 303   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 76-73 OT 69%     8 - 2 -7.9 -9.3 +1.2
  Dec 29, 2024 308   Binghamton W 69-51 71%     9 - 2 +6.5 -3.7 +11.5
  Jan 03, 2025 255   @ Iona W 70-65 37%     10 - 2 3 - 0 +2.7 -3.5 +6.0
  Jan 05, 2025 204   Quinnipiac W 69-62 47%     11 - 2 4 - 0 +1.8 -6.4 +8.0
  Jan 12, 2025 325   Fairfield W 61-51 74%     12 - 2 5 - 0 -2.5 -6.9 +6.1
  Jan 16, 2025 287   @ St. Peter's W 56-51 45%     13 - 2 6 - 0 +0.5 -4.7 +6.1
  Jan 18, 2025 299   Rider L 57-64 68%     13 - 3 6 - 1 -17.7 -17.3 -1.0
  Jan 23, 2025 311   @ Niagara W 67-65 OT 52%     14 - 3 7 - 1 -4.3 -5.0 +0.9
  Jan 25, 2025 356   @ Canisius W 70-47 72%     15 - 3 8 - 1 +11.1 -1.1 +15.5
  Jan 31, 2025 254   Siena W 72-67 57%     16 - 3 9 - 1 -2.8 +2.4 -4.8
  Feb 06, 2025 325   @ Fairfield L 56-59 55%     16 - 4 9 - 2 -10.0 -9.9 -0.6
  Feb 08, 2025 255   Iona L 71-75 58%     16 - 5 9 - 3 -11.8 +4.2 -16.4
  Feb 14, 2025 254   @ Siena W 65-64 36%     17 - 5 10 - 3 -1.3 -2.2 +1.1
  Feb 16, 2025 192   @ Merrimack W 61-60 25%     18 - 5 11 - 3 +2.1 -2.9 +5.0
  Feb 21, 2025 356   Canisius W 89-81 86%     19 - 5 12 - 3 -9.4 +14.5 -23.0
  Feb 23, 2025 311   Niagara W 64-61 72%     20 - 5 13 - 3 -8.8 -13.7 +4.9
  Feb 28, 2025 266   @ Sacred Heart L 54-67 39%     20 - 6 13 - 4 -16.0 -19.3 +2.5
  Mar 02, 2025 287   St. Peter's L 52-57 66%     20 - 7 13 - 5 -15.0 -12.1 -3.8
  Mar 06, 2025 192   Merrimack L 53-75 44%     20 - 8 13 - 6 -26.4 -11.4 -17.9
  Mar 08, 2025 259   @ Mount St. Mary's L 52-62 38%     20 - 9 13 - 7 -12.6 -13.1 -0.9
  Mar 13, 2025 259   Mount St. Mary's L 64-65 48%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 8.2% 8.2% 15.8 0.0 1.9 6.2 91.9
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 1.9 6.2 91.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.2% 100.0% 15.8 0.5 23.4 76.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 29.3%
Lose Out 51.6%