Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#233
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#144
Pace62.1#343
Improvement+1.2#107

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#249
First Shot-2.5#249
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#198
Layup/Dunks-2.2#269
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#29
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#182
Freethrows-3.6#349
Improvement-1.5#296

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#195
First Shot-1.9#235
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#97
Layups/Dunks-2.6#282
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#155
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#127
Freethrows-1.3#270
Improvement+2.7#18
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 14.9% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 93.7% 96.5% 88.6%
.500 or above in Conference 86.5% 88.5% 82.7%
Conference Champion 23.4% 26.3% 18.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 1.1%
First Four1.9% 1.7% 2.4%
First Round12.4% 14.1% 9.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Baltimore Co. (Home) - 64.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 32 - 32 - 3
Quad 418 - 720 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 231   @ Harvard L 66-79 38%     0 - 1 -13.7 -0.8 -13.7
  Nov 09, 2024 216   @ Richmond W 79-72 34%     1 - 1 +7.4 +9.5 -1.8
  Nov 15, 2024 299   Army W 91-88 OT 74%     2 - 1 -7.4 +12.5 -19.8
  Nov 19, 2024 312   Dartmouth W 75-62 77%     3 - 1 +1.6 -3.6 +4.9
  Nov 23, 2024 356   New Hampshire W 54-49 87%     4 - 1 -10.9 -17.2 +6.9
  Nov 30, 2024 244   @ Lehigh L 69-74 42%     4 - 2 -6.7 -0.5 -6.7
  Dec 06, 2024 253   Mount St. Mary's W 53-50 67%     5 - 2 1 - 0 -5.1 -18.1 +13.2
  Dec 08, 2024 293   @ Manhattan W 82-75 51%     6 - 2 2 - 0 +2.9 +7.9 -4.7
  Dec 17, 2024 307   @ Stony Brook W 68-66 55%     7 - 2 -3.1 +6.9 -9.6
  Dec 21, 2024 249   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-73 65%    
  Dec 29, 2024 314   Binghamton W 69-61 77%    
  Jan 03, 2025 258   @ Iona L 66-67 45%    
  Jan 05, 2025 245   Quinnipiac W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 12, 2025 280   Fairfield W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 16, 2025 210   @ St. Peter's L 60-64 34%    
  Jan 18, 2025 300   Rider W 68-61 73%    
  Jan 23, 2025 320   @ Niagara W 66-64 58%    
  Jan 25, 2025 350   @ Canisius W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 31, 2025 305   Siena W 67-60 74%    
  Feb 06, 2025 280   @ Fairfield L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 258   Iona W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 14, 2025 305   @ Siena W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 16, 2025 198   @ Merrimack L 61-66 32%    
  Feb 21, 2025 350   Canisius W 74-62 85%    
  Feb 23, 2025 320   Niagara W 69-61 77%    
  Feb 28, 2025 284   @ Sacred Heart W 70-69 50%    
  Mar 02, 2025 210   St. Peter's W 63-61 55%    
  Mar 06, 2025 198   Merrimack W 64-63 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 253   @ Mount St. Mary's L 67-69 45%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.4 6.0 6.2 4.0 2.1 0.7 0.1 23.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.6 6.5 4.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.2 5.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 4.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 3.1 0.6 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 2.5 1.1 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.3 0.1 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.8 6.2 9.4 11.6 13.8 13.9 12.9 10.4 7.5 4.2 2.1 0.7 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
18-2 99.7% 2.1    2.0 0.1
17-3 94.8% 4.0    3.5 0.4 0.0
16-4 82.0% 6.2    4.6 1.4 0.1
15-5 57.3% 6.0    3.1 2.3 0.5 0.0
14-6 26.4% 3.4    0.9 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-7 6.6% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.4% 23.4 15.1 6.0 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 32.4% 32.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.7% 37.9% 37.9% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
18-2 2.1% 35.1% 35.1% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3
17-3 4.2% 31.1% 31.1% 14.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.9
16-4 7.5% 26.9% 26.9% 14.6 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 5.5
15-5 10.4% 22.5% 22.5% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.5 8.1
14-6 12.9% 17.0% 17.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.0 10.7
13-7 13.9% 13.0% 13.0% 15.6 0.0 0.6 1.2 12.1
12-8 13.8% 10.2% 10.2% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 12.4
11-9 11.6% 5.9% 5.9% 15.9 0.1 0.6 10.9
10-10 9.4% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 9.0
9-11 6.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.1
8-12 3.8% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.7
7-13 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
6-14 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 4.9 5.1 86.7 0.0%