Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -15.8 #360
Expected Predictive Rating -16.0 #352
Pace 72.6 #81
Improvement -2.4 #293

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #342 F F D- A- F
Defense #360 F F D+ F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #311 1.06 #296 -4.7 #329
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #24 0.74 #203 +3.5 #38
Three Pointers 36% #285 0.87 #339 -5.3 #329
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #344 -6.4 #345
Freethrows 20.0 #57 77% #52 15.3 #32
Second Chance 29.4% #224 0.78 #364 0.23 #342
Turnovers 18.7% #316
Total Offense -7.3 #342

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #15 1.35 #357 -8.9 #364
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #359 0.87 #329 +2.1 #38
Three Pointers 41% #194 1.07 #254 -1.0 #222
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #357 -7.8 #357
Freethrows 26.3 #365 71% #120 18.8 #365
Second Chance 33.3% #291 1.32 #364 0.44 #357
Turnovers 14.9% #273
Total Defense -8.5 #360

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.3% #342 3.0% #363
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.6% #329 12.0% #351
Possession Length 18.1 #252 16.1 #28
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #231 0.25 #357
Improvement -1.8 #287 -0.6 #228

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.9% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 30.1% 59.7% 26.4%
Conference Champion 1.5% 6.9% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 11.3% 3.5% 12.3%
First Four2.5% 3.9% 2.3%
First Round0.7% 1.0% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Away) - 11.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 20 - 6
Quad 47 - 157 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 93 @Georgetown L 70 - 87 2% -10  0 - 1 -8 -4 D+ D+ F -3 B D F
 Tue, Nov 11 275 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 79 - 81 27% -6  0 - 2 -11 -2 F C C -9 F C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 306 @Mercyhurst L 72 - 86 16% -13  0 - 3 -19 +2 F A+ F -21 F F C
 Tue, Nov 18 304 N.C. A&T L 73 - 79 33% -4  0 - 4 -17 -5 D F A+ -12 F F B-
 Fri, Nov 21 240 @Old Dominion L 56 - 88 10% -18  0 - 5 -33 -14 F F D -21 F F F
 Tue, Nov 25 203 Drexel L 66 - 71 17% -7  0 - 6 -11 -2 C- F A+ -9 D A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 262 Longwood L 80 - 84 25% -1  0 - 7 -13 -3 D- F D -10 D F C+
 Tue, Dec 9 99 @DePaul L 49 - 92 2% -24  0 - 8 -35 -16 F F F -20 F F D
 Sat, Dec 13 352 Niagara W 81 - 73 50% +4  1 - 8 -8 +5 A+ A F -12 F F F
 Fri, Dec 19 75 @California L 50 - 97 2% -22  1 - 9 -36 -17 F D- F -20 F F C-
 Sun, Dec 21 101 @San Francisco L 64 - 94 3% -13  1 - 10 -22 -3 C C F -20 C- F D+
 Tue, Dec 23 155 @Loyola Marymount L 56 - 83 5% -16  1 - 11 -24 -12 F A- F -12 F F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 330 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 49 - 66 22% -6  1 - 12 0 - 1 -25 -23 F F F -3 B F F
 Sat, Jan 10 359 South Carolina St. W 72 - 67 60% -2  2 - 12 1 - 1 -13 -5 F F A -8 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 346 NC Central L 78 - 89 47% -4  2 - 13 1 - 2 -26 -1 D+ F C -25 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 355 @Delaware St. W 80 - 79 32% +5  3 - 13 2 - 2 -10 +3 C- F A -13 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 265 @Howard L 68 - 81 11%
 Mon, Jan 26 291 @Norfolk St. L 68 - 79 15%
 Sat, Jan 31 364 @Coppin St. W 77 - 76 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 330 Maryland Eastern Shore L 69 - 71 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 359 @South Carolina St. L 76 - 79 37%
 Mon, Feb 16 346 @NC Central L 72 - 79 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 355 Delaware St. W 72 - 71 55%
 Sat, Feb 28 265 Howard L 71 - 78 26%
 Mon, Mar 2 291 Norfolk St. L 71 - 76 31%
 Thu, Mar 5 364 Coppin St. W 80 - 73 74%
Totals 7 - 19 6 - 8 -16 -7 F F D- -8 F F D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 4.7 1.1 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.1 3.4 8.3 3.0 0.1 14.9 4th
5th 0.5 6.8 13.7 5.9 0.3 27.3 5th
6th 0.5 7.5 13.9 5.6 0.3 27.9 6th
7th 0.1 3.3 7.1 2.4 0.1 13.1 7th
8th 1.2 2.7 0.8 0.0 4.7 8th
Total 1.3 6.5 15.9 23.3 22.9 16.4 9.2 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
11-3 87.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
10-4 63.3% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-5 18.1% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.0% 0.0
11-3 0.2% 25.0% 25.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
10-4 1.1% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 0.1 0.9
9-5 3.3% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.2 3.1
8-6 9.2% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.5 8.7
7-7 16.4% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.4 15.9
6-8 22.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.5 22.4
5-9 23.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 22.8
4-10 15.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 15.7
3-11 6.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.5
2-12 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 16.0 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%