Morgan St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -13.4 348
Results Rating -10.7 329
Consistency 0.15 187
Pace 74.9 33
Improvement +2.1 112

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 316 D- D D+ B D-
Defense F+ 353 D F D F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 272 D- 50% 345 -4.6 331
2 Pt. Jumpers 58% 21 D+ 34% 293 +2.1 77
Three Pointers 36% 288 D+ 31% 286 -4.0 316
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.2 327 D- -5.3 345
1st FG Attempt D- 0.89 347
Second Chance C- 28.2% 241 F 0.85 358 D 0.24 326
Opponents' Steals C- 9.9% 244
Other Turnovers D+ 8.0% 274
Turnovers D+ 17.9% 263
Freethrows B- 0.34 73 B- 75% 94 B 0.25 61
Total Offense D -5.7 316

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 51% 131 D+ 12.4% 267
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 96 C 4.9% 183
Three Pointers D 79% 298 C 1.0% 213
Total C- 54% 208 C- 6.2% 248


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% 4 D 63% 320 +8.2 363
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 359 C- 40% 257 -2.6 14
Three Pointers 39% 247 C+ 33% 124 -1.7 110
Shot Selection/Accuracy F +1.6 364 D+ +2.0 267
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 308
Second Chance D- 35.4% 340 F+ 1.20 360 F 0.43 361
Turnovers from Steals F 5.1% 364
Other Turnovers A- 9.1% 15
Turnovers D 14.2% 325
Freethrows F 0.42 364 B- 71% 99 F 0.30 360
Total Defense F+ -7.7 353

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 58% 345 D+ 8.4% 276
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 44% 359 D+ 2.7% 304
Three Pointers C- 85% 219 D+ 0.4% 285
Total D- 64% 335 D+ 4.6% 254

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.6 94 16.0 10
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 118 0.25 361
Consistency 0.11 96 0.09 14
Improvement +0.5 155 +1.6 104

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 354 348 336
Results Rating Rank 343 329 307
Conference Record 9 - 5 10 - 4 10 - 4
Conference Finish 2 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 7% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 27% 34% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four6% 7% 4%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 77.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 11 - 5
Quad 411 - 1112 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 80 @Georgetown L 70 - 87 2% -10  21% 0 - 1 D+ -7 D -6 D+ C- F C+ +0 A- D- F
 Tue, Nov 11 194 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 79 - 81 21% -6  16% 0 - 2 D+ -7 C- -0 D B- C+ D- -7 F C- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 291 @Mercyhurst L 72 - 86 20% -13  6% 0 - 3 F -18 C- -2 F A+ F F -17 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 281 N.C. A&T L 73 - 79 35% -4  9% 0 - 4 F+ -16 D- -8 D F A+ D- -8 F+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 21 244 @Old Dominion L 56 - 88 14% -18  0% 0 - 5 F -34 F -18 F F+ D F -18 F+ D- F
 Tue, Nov 25 214 Drexel L 66 - 71 24% -7  2% 0 - 6 D -11 D -4 C F A D- -7 D A- A-
 Sat, Dec 6 254 Longwood L 80 - 84 31% -1  46% 0 - 7 D- -12 D+ -3 D- D- C- F+ -9 D+ F C
 Tue, Dec 9 84 @DePaul L 49 - 92 3% -28  0% 0 - 8 F -33 F -17 F F F F -18 F F+ F+
 Sat, Dec 13 333 Niagara W 81 - 73 55% +4  89% 1 - 8 D+ -7 C+ +2 A+ A F F+ -8 C- F F
 Fri, Dec 19 73 @California L 50 - 97 2% -22  0% 1 - 9 F -36 F -19 F D- F+ F -17 F F D+
 Sun, Dec 21 122 @San Francisco L 64 - 94 5% -13  21% 1 - 10 F -24 D- -7 D+ C- F F -18 C F C-
 Tue, Dec 23 156 @Loyola Marymount L 56 - 83 7% -16  0% 1 - 11 F -24 F -16 F B+ F F+ -8 F F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 349 @Maryland Eastern Shore L 49 - 66 39% -6  17% 1 - 12 0 - 1 F -27 F -26 F F F C- -2 B- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 359 South Carolina St. W 72 - 67 71% -2  16% 2 - 12 1 - 1 D- -14 D- -8 F F A D -6 D- F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 347 NC Central L 78 - 89 60% -4  14% 2 - 13 1 - 2 F -27 D -5 D F B F -23 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 361 @Delaware St. W 80 - 79 57% +5  76% 3 - 13 2 - 2 D- -14 C- -1 D F B+ F -13 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 182 @Howard W 78 - 77 9% -3  15% 4 - 13 3 - 2 C+ +2 D+ -4 F A+ D B+ +6 A+ F C+
 Mon, Jan 26 312 @Norfolk St. W 79 - 78 24% -3  36% 5 - 13 4 - 2 D+ -5 D -5 C- F D+ C -0 A F F
 Sat, Jan 31 363 @Coppin St. W 89 - 80 58% +12  100% 6 - 13 5 - 2 D+ -6 C +2 F A D F+ -9 F C F+
 Sat, Feb 7 349 Maryland Eastern Shore W 79 - 71 62% +2  79% 7 - 13 6 - 2 D -8 C+ +2 C- D A+ F -10 B- C F
 Mon, Feb 16 347 @NC Central L 76 - 80 37% -11  7% 7 - 14 6 - 3 D- -14 F+ -8 F F D+ D -6 D- F A-
 Sat, Feb 21 361 Delaware St. W 82 - 68 77% +3  66% 8 - 14 7 - 3 D+ -7 D+ -3 D+ D D+ D -5 C- D+ F
 Wed, Feb 25 359 @South Carolina St. W 90 - 83 49% +5  83% 9 - 14 8 - 3 D+ -6 B +6 A- B+ F F -12 F D+ F
 Sat, Feb 28 182 Howard L 59 - 84 20% -10  2% 9 - 15 8 - 4 F -30 F -17 F C- A+ F -12 C- F D
 Mon, Mar 2 312 Norfolk St. W 90 - 84 45% +10  91% 10 - 15 9 - 4 D+ -6 C+ +3 A F A F+ -10 A- F F
 Thu, Mar 5 363 Coppin St. W 81 - 73 78%
Totals 11 - 15 10 - 4 -13 D -6 A D- D- F+ -8 D+ B- B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- D+ D+ D- 36% 58% 36% D- D- C- F D D+ B- B- B F+ D C- C+ D+ 48% 13% 39% F D D- F+ F D F B- F
1.01 50% 34% 31% -5 -1 0.89 28% 0.8 .24 18% .34 75% .25 1.20 63% 40% 33% +2 +2 1.10 35% 1.2 .43 14% .42 71% .24
Nov
3		 Georgetown D F F+ A+ D+ 38% 27% 35% C D+ C D C- F A+ D+ A C+ C+ F A+ A+ 46% 9% 44% F A- C- F+ D- F F B+ F
0.93 39% 31% 41% -5 -1 0.90 30% 0.9 .27 21% .40 71% .29 1.15 56% 80% 17% -9 +2 0.89 35% 1.3 .45 9% .57 69% .39
Nov
11		 Maryland Baltimore Co. C- F F A+ D- 45% 22% 33% C- D B+ C- B- C+ D+ A- C D- F F F F 45% 5% 50% F F C- C C- A+ F A F
1.10 42% 23% 47% -4 0 0.95 34% 1.0 .34 13% .21 77% .16 1.13 75% 50% 41% +13 +3 1.34 24% 1.0 .24 25% .45 67% .30
Nov
15		 Mercyhurst C- C+ F F F 38% 43% 20% F F A+ C- A+ F A+ A+ A+ F F A+ F F 32% 28% 40% D F F F F C+ F A+ F
1.06 60% 18% 25% -11 -3 0.75 51% 1.0 .51 24% .74 84% .62 1.27 69% 29% 40% +4 -1 1.08 41% 1.7 .69 16% .49 61% .30
Nov
18		 N.C. A&T D- C+ A+ F D 41% 25% 34% C- D F F F A+ D C+ D+ D- F F C+ F 29% 29% 42% B- F+ C F F B- F D F
1.05 60% 53% 24% -1 0 1.00 14% 0.4 .05 7% .26 71% .19 1.14 69% 54% 32% +6 -2 1.11 30% 1.8 .52 20% .49 78% .38
Nov
21		 Old Dominion F D- D- F F 52% 20% 28% B F C F F+ D C+ F F+ F D C F F 28% 22% 50% C- F+ F B+ D- F F C- F
0.84 54% 30% 14% -12 +1 0.80 32% 0.6 .20 17% .36 55% .20 1.32 64% 36% 40% +6 -1 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 11% .45 74% .34
Nov
25		 Drexel D B+ B F C+ 40% 38% 23% F+ C F F F A B+ C B+ D- F A+ C+ D+ 45% 12% 43% F D F A+ A- A- F F F
1.01 63% 44% 18% -1 -2 0.96 21% 0.6 .12 11% .36 76% .28 1.09 68% 20% 33% +2 +2 1.10 41% 0.4 .18 23% .52 81% .42
Dec
6		 Longwood D+ D- A+ F D- 44% 19% 37% C D- F+ D+ D- C- C+ A+ A+ F+ C+ A+ F D+ 46% 18% 36% F+ D+ C F F C F A F
1.07 54% 70% 25% -1 +1 1.02 21% 0.9 .18 19% .36 91% .33 1.12 56% 14% 43% -1 +1 1.03 33% 1.6 .53 20% .74 66% .49
Dec
9		 DePaul F F F F F 26% 38% 36% F F A+ F F F A+ A A+ F F A+ F F 38% 17% 45% D+ F B F F+ F+ F F F
0.72 27% 25% 20% -21 -3 0.55 45% 0.3 .13 30% .65 77% .50 1.36 88% 14% 42% +13 0 1.29 28% 1.6 .44 13% .63 78% .49
Dec
13		 Niagara C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 29% 47% F A+ A+ F+ A F A+ A A+ F+ C- F B+ C 50% 8% 42% F C- A F F F F C- F
1.21 78% 73% 44% +22 -2 1.42 56% 0.9 .50 34% .48 86% .41 1.09 58% 50% 30% -1 +2 1.04 14% 2.8 .38 13% .33 74% .24
Dec
19		 California F B- B F F 35% 29% 35% D- F F A- D- F+ B F+ C+ F D- A F F 50% 14% 36% F F A- F F D+ D- F F
0.72 59% 43% 6% -13 -1 0.73 16% 1.2 .19 20% .34 58% .20 1.40 68% 29% 50% +12 +2 1.30 22% 2.6 .57 13% .38 96% .36
Dec
21		 San Francisco D- A+ D C C+ 15% 39% 46% F D+ F A+ C- F A- D- B F F B+ A+ C 42% 23% 35% C+ C F F F C- F B- F
0.95 71% 33% 33% 0 -4 0.93 18% 1.5 .26 18% .34 68% .23 1.39 83% 30% 20% +1 0 1.05 47% 1.5 .70 15% .78 69% .54
Dec
23		 Loyola Marymount F F F F F 32% 49% 19% F F A+ D+ B+ F A- F C+ F+ D F D F 44% 9% 47% F F F C- F C+ F A F
0.80 33% 22% 22% -19 -4 0.55 43% 1.0 .41 24% .36 63% .23 1.19 65% 75% 38% +9 +2 1.24 38% 1.1 .41 19% .49 61% .30
Jan
3		 Maryland Eastern Shore F F B- F F 26% 32% 43% F F F F F F D D- D- C- D A+ A+ A- 55% 13% 32% F B- D F F+ F F B+ F
0.73 42% 40% 20% -13 -2 0.72 19% 0.6 .11 22% .31 69% .21 0.99 62% 0% 20% -10 +2 0.87 32% 1.1 .35 18% .49 67% .33
Jan
10		 South Carolina St. D- B F+ F F 48% 20% 33% D F D- F F A A F C D F D A+ D- 40% 28% 33% F+ D- F F F A+ F+ A+ B
1.08 68% 33% 20% -3 +1 0.98 31% 0.9 .28 12% .48 61% .29 1.01 71% 42% 21% 0 -1 1.00 38% 1.3 .50 27% .39 47% .18
Jan
12		 NC Central D A F B+ D+ 33% 27% 40% F+ D D F F B A+ D+ A+ F F F F F 64% 20% 16% F F A+ A+ A+ F F C- F
1.14 73% 25% 39% +5 -1 1.09 33% 0.5 .17 16% .57 70% .40 1.30 68% 67% 57% +18 +2 1.41 17% 0.8 .13 13% .55 76% .42
Jan
17		 Delaware St. C- F B+ A+ D+ 30% 26% 44% F D F+ F+ F B+ A+ B- A F B+ F A+ F 43% 26% 30% F F F F F F F C F
1.09 44% 43% 42% +2 -1 1.04 24% 1.0 .24 15% .43 74% .32 1.08 45% 75% 21% -2 0 0.98 32% 0.9 .29 15% .63 69% .43
Jan
24		 Howard D+ F D C F 48% 22% 30% C- F A- A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 51% 24% 25% C+ A+ F F F C+ F F+ F
0.96 28% 31% 33% -17 +1 0.70 40% 1.4 .58 21% .45 79% .36 0.95 32% 31% 14% -22 0 0.58 53% 1.2 .66 21% .63 80% .50
Jan
26		 Norfolk St. D B- C C+ C 34% 20% 46% D- C- F A+ F D+ B+ B+ A- C B+ F A+ A+ 62% 9% 29% F A D- F F F F+ A C-
1.04 65% 40% 35% +3 0 1.08 12% 1.5 .18 18% .42 77% .32 1.03 47% 60% 12% -15 +3 0.79 34% 1.3 .45 12% .40 59% .24
Jan
31		 Coppin St. C A- F D- F+ 34% 28% 38% F+ F C- A+ A D A+ D- A+ F+ D A F F 48% 23% 29% F+ F F A+ C F+ F A+ F
1.17 71% 29% 32% 0 -1 1.00 34% 1.6 .54 18% .61 71% .44 1.05 60% 25% 40% 0 0 1.04 37% 0.7 .27 18% .57 57% .32
Feb
7		 Maryland Eastern Shore C+ B F+ C C 41% 29% 31% D- C- D+ D- D A+ B+ A- A F C A A+ B 51% 22% 27% D- B- F A C F F F F
1.18 65% 29% 33% 0 -1 1.00 29% 1.0 .29 9% .41 80% .33 1.06 56% 27% 23% -8 +1 0.88 38% 0.7 .25 13% .36 86% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
16		 NC Central F+ F F A+ F 41% 21% 38% C- F A- F F D+ A+ C+ A D A+ D+ F D 48% 22% 30% D D- F+ F F A- F F+ F
1.04 48% 17% 43% -4 0 0.95 47% 0.5 .23 19% .39 74% .29 1.10 41% 40% 50% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.5 .52 22% .44 80% .35
Feb
21		 Delaware St. D+ C+ B- C- C- 39% 20% 41% D+ D+ B F D D+ A+ B- A+ D D+ A+ A+ C+ 55% 20% 25% F C- D C D+ F F B D-
1.12 65% 40% 33% +3 0 1.08 36% 0.8 .31 19% .45 74% .34 0.93 57% 18% 21% -10 +1 0.85 28% 0.8 .21 15% .37 65% .24
Feb
25		 South Carolina St. B F A+ A+ B+ 57% 2% 40% A- A- C- A+ B+ F A+ A+ A+ F F F A+ F 43% 29% 27% F+ F F A D+ F F B+ F
1.23 46% 100% 59% +10 +4 1.29 37% 1.4 .53 22% .60 82% .49 1.14 73% 47% 21% +4 -1 1.08 41% 0.8 .31 12% .45 62% .28
Feb
28		 Howard F F F F F 37% 20% 43% D F C D C- A+ A+ C+ A+ F B F D+ C+ 65% 8% 27% F C- F D F D F A F
0.82 35% 18% 9% -29 0 0.44 33% 1.0 .33 12% .44 71% .32 1.17 47% 50% 36% -6 +4 0.98 47% 1.2 .53 18% .49 66% .32
Mar
2		 Norfolk St. C+ D+ F A+ A 38% 13% 49% C- A F F F A C- A+ B F+ B A+ A+ A+ 63% 13% 24% F A- F D+ F F D C+ D+
1.19 57% 29% 52% +12 +1 1.27 10% 0.7 .06 12% .36 83% .30 1.11 49% 25% 20% -13 +3 0.82 41% 1.0 .43 9% .38 65% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 26.6 26.6 1st
2nd 22.4 51.0 73.4 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
Total 22.4 77.6 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 34.3% 26.6    26.6
9-5 0.0%
8-6
7-7
Total 26.6% 26.6 26.6



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 77.6% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 5.1 72.5
9-5 22.4% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.9 21.5
8-6
7-7
6-8
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 16.0 93.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.1% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 23.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 32.9%
Lose Out 7.8%