Grand Canyon
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#87
Expected Predictive Rating+5.2#98
Pace69.5#186
Improvement+2.7#41

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#131
First Shot+1.6#126
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#189
Layup/Dunks+2.7#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#182
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#305
Freethrows+3.0#27
Improvement+0.9#110

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#48
First Shot+6.0#32
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#256
Layups/Dunks+4.2#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#63
Freethrows+0.9#123
Improvement+1.8#60
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 9.4% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.4% 1.9% 0.6%
Average Seed 11.0 11.0 11.3
.500 or above 91.7% 95.9% 84.6%
.500 or above in Conference 83.1% 89.7% 72.0%
Conference Champion 8.7% 11.5% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.9% 1.2% 0.4%
First Round7.4% 8.7% 5.1%
Second Round1.8% 2.2% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Home) - 63.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 6
Quad 24 - 45 - 10
Quad 35 - 210 - 12
Quad 410 - 120 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 199 Purdue Fort Wayne W 90-71 87%     1 - 0 +13.6 +6.9 +5.4
  Fri, Nov 7 163 Youngstown St. L 81-90 83%     1 - 1 -12.4 +5.5 -17.6
  Mon, Nov 10 328 Northern Illinois W 88-59 95%     2 - 1 +16.1 +5.5 +9.8
  Sat, Nov 15 37 @Saint Louis L 64-78 18%     2 - 2 +2.1 -5.2 +8.3
  Fri, Nov 21 273 Northwestern St. W 85-72 92%     3 - 2 +4.0 +7.2 -3.0
  Tue, Nov 25 111 Utah W 68-58 62%     4 - 2 +13.6 -2.6 +16.6
  Wed, Nov 26 18 Iowa L 46-59 18%     4 - 3 +3.5 -11.6 +13.0
  Tue, Dec 2 349 Stetson W 67-45 97%     5 - 3 +6.6 -9.5 +17.4
  Sat, Dec 6 55 Oklahoma St. L 78-84 40%     5 - 4 +3.2 +7.7 -4.5
  Sat, Dec 13 230 Coastal Carolina W 82-61 90%     6 - 4 +13.8 +11.6 +2.9
  Sat, Dec 20 103 @Wyoming W 82-70 46%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +19.7 +8.7 +10.5
  Mon, Dec 22 354 IU Indianapolis W 91-78 97%     8 - 4 -3.7 +2.2 -6.8
  Sat, Jan 3 91 Colorado St. W 73-70 63%    
  Wed, Jan 7 51 @Boise St. L 66-73 27%    
  Sat, Jan 10 197 San Jose St. W 76-64 87%    
  Tue, Jan 13 66 @New Mexico L 72-77 33%    
  Sat, Jan 17 33 Utah St. L 71-75 36%    
  Wed, Jan 21 52 San Diego St. L 71-72 49%    
  Sat, Jan 24 184 @Fresno St. W 75-70 69%    
  Tue, Jan 27 89 @Nevada L 69-72 40%    
  Fri, Jan 30 51 Boise St. L 69-70 48%    
  Tue, Feb 3 322 Air Force W 76-57 96%    
  Sat, Feb 7 133 @UNLV W 77-75 57%    
  Wed, Feb 11 66 New Mexico W 75-74 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 197 @San Jose St. W 73-67 71%    
  Tue, Feb 17 52 @San Diego St. L 68-74 28%    
  Sat, Feb 21 103 Wyoming W 76-71 67%    
  Wed, Feb 25 133 UNLV W 80-72 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 33 @Utah St. L 68-78 19%    
  Tue, Mar 3 322 @Air Force W 73-60 89%    
  Sat, Mar 7 184 Fresno St. W 78-67 85%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.3 2.8 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 8.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 4.9 4.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 6.3 4.9 1.3 0.1 14.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 6.5 5.4 1.0 0.1 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.8 5.4 1.2 0.0 13.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.5 5.2 1.2 0.1 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.3 4.3 1.4 0.1 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.1 1.0 0.1 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.8 8.1 11.2 14.3 15.5 14.8 11.7 8.1 4.6 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 97.5% 0.7    0.6 0.1
17-3 86.1% 1.8    1.4 0.4 0.0
16-4 61.0% 2.8    1.6 1.1 0.1
15-5 28.8% 2.3    0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1
14-6 7.2% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.7% 8.7 4.6 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 78.0% 28.8% 49.2% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.0%
18-2 0.7% 54.0% 21.3% 32.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 41.5%
17-3 2.1% 36.2% 20.9% 15.3% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.3 19.4%
16-4 4.6% 24.6% 17.7% 7.0% 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.0 3.5 8.5%
15-5 8.1% 15.2% 12.6% 2.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 6.8 3.0%
14-6 11.7% 12.0% 11.4% 0.6% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 10.3 0.7%
13-7 14.8% 7.9% 7.8% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.0 13.6 0.1%
12-8 15.5% 5.5% 5.5% 11.6 0.4 0.5 0.0 14.6
11-9 14.3% 2.8% 2.8% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 13.9
10-10 11.2% 2.4% 2.4% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 11.0
9-11 8.1% 1.3% 1.3% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.0
8-12 4.8% 0.4% 0.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8
7-13 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 2.4
6-14 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 7.9% 6.6% 1.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 4.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.1 1.4%