Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
41 Utah St. 86.4%   10   23 - 6 14 - 5 +13.0      +8.5 36 +4.4 62 68.5 177 +13.4 41 +12.6 1
48 San Diego St. 39.0%   18 - 10 13 - 6 +11.4      +3.4 91 +8.0 22 70.9 111 +10.1 58 +11.3 3
50 New Mexico 52.4%   11   21 - 7 13 - 5 +11.1      +5.2 70 +6.0 40 73.8 48 +11.8 48 +11.4 2
60 Boise St. 18.4%   18 - 10 11 - 8 +9.4      +5.9 59 +3.6 79 64.9 275 +10.0 59 +8.4 5
62 Grand Canyon 12.2%   19 - 11 12 - 7 +9.2      +1.2 136 +8.0 21 69.4 149 +7.8 77 +9.5 4
81 Nevada 5.6%   19 - 11 11 - 8 +7.3      +4.2 83 +3.1 87 64.4 289 +8.2 71 +8.3 6
92 Colorado St. 2.4%   18 - 10 10 - 8 +6.1      +6.6 53 -0.4 189 59.9 361 +7.3 85 +6.5 8
101 Wyoming 0.8%   16 - 13 8 - 11 +4.7      +3.3 94 +1.4 134 66.5 238 +4.5 106 +3.8 9
102 UNLV 1.3%   15 - 14 11 - 8 +4.3      +4.5 77 -0.2 174 73.7 50 +4.5 105 +7.6 7
129 Fresno St. 0.3%   12 - 17 7 - 12 +2.0      -0.9 187 +2.9 93 70.6 120 -0.2 159 +1.4 10
224 San Jose St. 0.0%   7 - 22 3 - 16 -3.7      +0.9 141 -4.6 310 63.7 308 -4.3 239 -6.0 11
344 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 27 0 - 19 -12.8      -8.4 347 -4.5 306 65.7 258 -12.8 342 -15.4 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 28 50 New Mexico 81 48 San Diego St. 76   
Sat, Feb 28 81 Nevada 83 102 UNLV 85   
Sat, Feb 28 62 Grand Canyon 69 41 Utah St. 74   
Sat, Feb 28 92 Colorado St. 85 224 San Jose St. 73   
Sat, Feb 28 60 Boise St. 69 129 Fresno St. 53   
Sat, Feb 28 344 Air Force 62 101 Wyoming 66   
Tue, Mar 3 102 UNLV 92 41 Utah St. 65   
Tue, Mar 3 60 Boise St. 86 48 San Diego St. 77   
Tue, Mar 3 129 Fresno St. 82 224 San Jose St. 68   
Tue, Mar 3 81 Nevada 73 101 Wyoming 83   
Tue, Mar 3 344 Air Force 60 62 Grand Canyon 86   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Mar 4 92 Colorado St. 71 50 New Mexico 79 78%   
Fri, Mar 6 48 San Diego St. 83 102 UNLV 73 83%   
Sat, Mar 7 50 New Mexico 76 41 Utah St. 81 68%   
Sat, Mar 7 60 Boise St. 73 92 Colorado St. 72 51%   
Sat, Mar 7 129 Fresno St. 65 62 Grand Canyon 76 83%   
Sat, Mar 7 224 San Jose St. 71 101 Wyoming 77 70%   
Sat, Mar 7 344 Air Force 58 81 Nevada 81 97%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Utah St. 1.3 74.4 25.6
New Mexico 1.8 32.4 54.4 13.2
San Diego St. 2.1 5.6 79.9 14.5
Grand Canyon 3.7 2.3 23.4 74.3
Nevada 4.9 16.1 82.9 0.9 0.1
Boise St. 5.6 8.5 42.7 30.9 15.8 2.0
UNLV 6.3 2.6 15.0 31.4 50.9
Colorado St. 6.8 1.7 10.3 30.9 15.7 41.5
Wyoming 9.0 100.0
Fresno St. 10.0 4.9 95.1
San Jose St. 11.0 100.0
Air Force 12.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Utah St. 15 - 5 24 - 6 32.4 67.6
New Mexico 14 - 6 22 - 8 16.0 58.5 25.6
San Diego St. 14 - 6 19 - 10 17.2 82.8
Grand Canyon 13 - 7 20 - 11 16.3 83.7
Nevada 12 - 8 20 - 11 1.5 98.5
Boise St. 12 - 8 19 - 10 49.2 50.8
UNLV 11 - 9 15 - 15 82.8 17.2
Colorado St. 11 - 9 19 - 11 39.6 48.9 11.5
Wyoming 9 - 11 17 - 13 30.1 69.9
Fresno St. 7 - 13 12 - 18 83.7 16.3
San Jose St. 3 - 17 7 - 23 69.9 30.1
Air Force 0 - 20 3 - 28 98.5 1.5

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah St. 74.4% 67.6 1.2 5.6
New Mexico 32.4% 25.6 1.2 5.6
San Diego St. 5.6% 5.6
Grand Canyon
Nevada
Boise St.
UNLV
Colorado St.
Wyoming
Fresno St.
San Jose St.
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah St. 86.4% 29.8% 56.6% 10   0.1 2.0 6.2 15.6 24.1 28.1 10.3 0.0 13.6 80.7%
San Diego St. 39.0% 21.4% 17.6% 0.0 0.4 1.7 8.7 26.9 1.3 61.0 22.4%
New Mexico 52.4% 20.2% 32.3% 11   0.1 0.4 1.8 4.7 15.2 29.3 0.9 47.6 40.4%
Boise St. 18.4% 7.4% 11.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.8 13.0 0.8 81.6 11.9%
Grand Canyon 12.2% 11.0% 1.2% 0.1 1.2 9.6 1.3 87.8 1.3%
Nevada 5.6% 5.4% 0.2% 0.2 4.1 1.3 0.0 94.4 0.2%
Colorado St. 2.4% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1 1.5 0.8 97.6 0.1%
Wyoming 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 99.2 0.0%
UNLV 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 98.7 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.2 15.7 53.1 27.7 3.3 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.9 28.5 56.3 14.3 0.8 0.0
2nd Round 54.8% 0.7 45.3 43.9 10.2 0.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 11.4% 0.1 88.6 11.0 0.4
Elite Eight 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.1 0.0
Final Four 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah St. 86.4% 11.3% 80.9% 35.3% 6.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
San Diego St. 39.0% 15.1% 31.3% 10.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 52.4% 22.6% 40.6% 13.2% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Boise St. 18.4% 9.6% 12.7% 3.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 12.2% 1.1% 11.5% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 5.6% 0.2% 5.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 2.4% 0.1% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%