Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
43 San Diego St. 52.6%   11   6 - 2 1 - 0 20 - 8 14 - 6 +10.9      +4.2 71 +6.6 27 65.7 263 +15.9 24 +13.0 1
52 Nevada 31.1%   8 - 3 0 - 0 22 - 9 14 - 6 +10.0      +5.9 45 +4.2 74 62.9 327 +8.5 71 0.0 4
54 Utah St. 40.5%   9 - 1 1 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 6 +9.9      +5.4 50 +4.5 63 72.0 94 +14.0 37 +11.9 2
57 Boise St. 27.3%   7 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 9 14 - 6 +9.5      +4.5 63 +5.0 53 68.2 200 +7.9 79 0.0 4
70 New Mexico 21.3%   8 - 3 1 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +8.2      +4.8 58 +3.4 89 81.5 3 +9.9 61 +10.9 3
105 Colorado St. 3.9%   6 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 15 10 - 10 +4.3      +1.0 144 +3.3 92 68.0 211 +1.6 141 0.0 4
108 UNLV 3.3%   5 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 15 10 - 10 +4.0      +2.8 102 +1.3 132 64.0 311 +1.8 139 0.0 4
163 Wyoming 0.5%   5 - 5 0 - 1 13 - 17 7 - 13 -0.3      -1.0 198 +0.7 148 66.9 234 -1.5 189 -2.3 9
184 San Jose St. 0.4%   4 - 6 0 - 1 11 - 19 6 - 14 -1.3      +1.1 142 -2.4 249 65.0 282 -4.1 237 -4.0 10
257 Fresno St. 0.0%   4 - 7 0 - 1 9 - 22 4 - 16 -5.2      -6.3 339 +1.0 140 81.0 5 -4.5 242 -7.3 11
272 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 8 0 - 0 7 - 24 4 - 16 -5.9      -3.1 259 -2.7 258 58.8 360 -11.7 330 0.0 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 2.7 33.8 21.9 16.4 12.0 8.2 4.7 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nevada 3.0 25.6 20.9 17.6 14.5 10.6 6.5 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Utah St. 3.0 25.3 21.2 18.0 14.4 10.4 6.5 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 3.3 21.4 19.0 18.1 15.6 12.3 7.7 4.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
New Mexico 3.8 14.2 16.3 16.9 17.0 15.6 11.1 5.9 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 5.7 2.7 4.9 7.6 10.9 15.4 20.7 19.6 11.2 5.0 1.6 0.5
UNLV 5.9 2.4 4.3 6.9 10.1 14.8 20.1 20.7 12.3 5.8 2.0 0.6
Wyoming 8.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.4 9.6 17.0 26.3 21.7 12.1 5.3
San Jose St. 8.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.2 7.2 13.8 24.1 25.5 15.9 7.9
Fresno St. 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 4.0 10.7 20.3 31.8 31.3
Air Force 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.5 9.4 18.7 31.0 35.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
San Diego St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.7 9.0 12.0 15.2 16.0 14.5 10.9 6.9 2.9 0.7
Nevada 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.5 4.6 7.9 10.9 14.3 15.1 15.3 12.4 8.7 4.4 1.6 0.3
Utah St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.8 7.4 11.1 14.1 15.7 15.2 12.8 8.4 4.4 1.5 0.4
Boise St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.8 8.9 12.1 14.7 15.4 13.9 11.0 7.1 3.4 1.2 0.2
New Mexico 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.7 5.1 8.3 11.4 14.1 15.4 14.3 11.8 7.9 4.4 2.1 0.6 0.1
Colorado St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.5 4.8 7.6 10.9 13.5 14.3 13.8 11.7 8.6 5.5 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
UNLV 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.3 8.7 11.6 13.5 14.3 13.3 10.9 8.0 5.0 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 7 - 13 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.9 9.3 12.5 15.2 15.3 13.5 10.7 7.2 4.4 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 6 - 14 0.2 1.1 3.4 7.3 11.6 15.0 16.0 14.5 11.9 8.3 5.3 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 4 - 16 2.1 7.4 14.3 18.7 18.7 15.4 10.7 6.7 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Air Force 4 - 16 2.6 9.0 15.4 19.1 18.4 14.5 9.9 5.9 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 33.8% 22.9 8.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Nevada 25.6% 16.1 7.3 1.8 0.3 0.0
Utah St. 25.3% 15.9 7.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 21.4% 13.3 6.1 1.6 0.3 0.0
New Mexico 14.2% 8.3 4.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Colorado St. 2.7% 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNLV 2.4% 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fresno St.
Air Force 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 52.6% 23.9% 28.6% 11   0.3 0.6 1.0 1.9 2.4 3.4 3.9 5.0 7.6 10.7 14.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.4 37.6%
Nevada 31.1% 19.2% 11.9% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.2 3.7 6.5 12.5 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.9 14.7%
Utah St. 40.5% 19.4% 21.1% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.8 2.3 3.4 5.6 8.9 14.2 1.9 0.0 59.5 26.1%
Boise St. 27.3% 17.3% 10.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.9 3.1 5.7 11.2 2.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 72.7 12.1%
New Mexico 21.3% 12.4% 8.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.4 4.4 9.5 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.7 10.2%
Colorado St. 3.9% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 96.1 0.2%
UNLV 3.3% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 96.7 0.1%
Wyoming 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.5 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 52.6% 9.3% 47.9% 24.7% 8.3% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Nevada 31.1% 5.1% 28.6% 12.8% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Utah St. 40.5% 8.4% 36.1% 16.5% 4.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Boise St. 27.3% 4.3% 25.2% 10.6% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
New Mexico 21.3% 4.2% 19.1% 7.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Colorado St. 3.9% 0.1% 3.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 3.3% 0.1% 3.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.8 35.4 49.5 14.2 1.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.6 0.0 44.8 45.9 8.9 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 60.1% 0.7 39.9 47.4 12.0 0.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 21.3% 0.2 78.7 20.3 1.0 0.0
Elite Eight 7.7% 0.1 92.3 7.5 0.1
Final Four 2.7% 0.0 97.4 2.6 0.0
Final Game 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8 0.0
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2