Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
36 San Diego St. 56.0%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 7 15 - 5 +13.0      +4.5 63 +8.5 9 65.3 271 0.0 121 0.0 1
52 Utah St. 39.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 13 - 7 +10.5      +7.6 30 +2.9 91 68.5 184 0.0 121 0.0 1
53 Boise St. 36.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 13 - 7 +10.2      +5.6 49 +4.6 53 64.9 285 0.0 121 0.0 1
74 Colorado St. 17.9%   1 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 8 +7.5      +4.9 57 +2.6 100 65.1 279 +6.0 54 0.0 1
78 Grand Canyon 15.0%   1 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 8 +6.9      +3.3 90 +3.7 75 76.3 23 +7.4 39 0.0 1
94 New Mexico 10.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 10 +5.4      +1.5 114 +3.8 71 79.7 7 0.0 121 0.0 1
96 UNLV 10.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 10 +5.1      +2.6 97 +2.5 103 64.7 290 0.0 121 0.0 1
107 Nevada 6.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 10 +4.0      +1.0 137 +3.1 86 61.6 341 0.0 121 0.0 1
156 Wyoming 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 7 - 13 -0.3      -0.8 191 +0.5 149 62.7 324 0.0 121 0.0 1
167 San Jose St. 0.9%   0 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 13 -0.7      +0.1 160 -0.9 191 66.1 244 -3.6 309 0.0 1
202 Fresno St. 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 14 -2.3      -1.2 208 -1.2 199 76.1 24 0.0 121 0.0 1
304 Air Force 0.0%   0 - 1 0 - 0 8 - 23 3 - 17 -7.7      -5.0 321 -2.6 264 62.5 332 -5.9 323 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
San Diego St. 2.6 40.1 20.8 13.5 9.2 6.1 4.5 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Utah St. 3.6 22.9 19.3 15.1 11.8 9.6 7.3 5.4 4.0 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.1
Boise St. 3.8 21.0 18.0 15.3 12.1 9.6 8.1 6.0 4.6 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.2
Colorado St. 4.6 11.4 13.3 14.2 14.3 12.7 10.4 8.5 6.3 4.6 2.6 1.4 0.4
Grand Canyon 4.9 9.5 12.4 13.3 13.5 12.6 11.4 9.5 7.5 5.2 3.1 1.5 0.5
New Mexico 5.8 5.4 8.3 9.7 11.0 11.6 11.9 12.0 10.7 8.7 6.1 3.3 1.2
UNLV 5.9 5.6 8.3 9.6 10.6 11.8 12.4 11.9 10.7 8.5 6.1 3.5 1.2
Nevada 6.3 4.3 6.3 8.3 9.9 11.2 12.5 12.3 11.5 9.8 7.3 4.8 1.8
Wyoming 8.5 0.5 1.5 2.4 3.6 5.4 7.4 10.0 12.8 15.3 17.1 15.8 8.2
San Jose St. 8.4 0.5 1.4 2.8 3.9 5.5 7.6 10.1 12.8 15.9 17.0 15.3 7.4
Fresno St. 9.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.6 3.8 5.8 7.6 10.6 14.7 18.4 20.6 13.3
Air Force 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.4 6.4 12.6 23.6 50.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
San Diego St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.5 5.3 6.9 9.3 11.6 12.8 13.3 12.4 10.5 7.0 2.7
Utah St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.4 4.8 6.0 8.2 10.2 11.2 11.8 11.4 10.7 8.5 5.6 3.0 0.9
Boise St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.7 5.3 6.8 8.5 10.0 11.6 12.0 10.9 10.0 7.6 5.2 2.4 0.7
Colorado St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.4 3.6 5.6 7.4 9.7 10.9 12.1 12.1 10.8 8.8 6.4 4.5 2.3 0.8 0.2
Grand Canyon 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 3.0 4.7 6.4 8.2 10.2 11.3 12.1 11.5 9.6 8.0 6.0 3.7 1.8 0.7 0.1
New Mexico 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.2 7.1 9.1 10.8 11.2 11.0 10.6 8.9 7.0 5.3 3.4 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
UNLV 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.8 5.3 7.1 9.4 10.5 11.1 11.3 10.6 8.6 7.2 5.2 3.2 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1
Nevada 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.3 6.4 8.3 9.9 11.2 10.9 11.2 9.7 7.9 5.8 4.3 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0
Wyoming 7 - 13 0.4 1.7 3.8 6.8 9.3 10.7 12.5 11.8 11.1 9.9 7.5 5.7 3.7 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
San Jose St. 7 - 13 0.4 1.3 3.7 6.0 8.8 11.2 12.4 12.2 11.7 9.6 7.8 5.6 4.0 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Fresno St. 6 - 14 0.9 3.2 6.5 9.4 11.5 12.3 12.2 11.8 9.7 7.5 5.6 3.8 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Air Force 3 - 17 8.2 15.4 17.5 16.8 13.8 10.6 7.1 4.6 2.9 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 40.1% 29.9 8.3 1.7 0.2 0.0
Utah St. 22.9% 15.7 5.6 1.3 0.2 0.0
Boise St. 21.0% 14.2 5.4 1.2 0.2 0.0
Colorado St. 11.4% 7.0 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
Grand Canyon 9.5% 5.7 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
New Mexico 5.4% 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
UNLV 5.6% 3.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Nevada 4.3% 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Wyoming 0.5% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
San Jose St. 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Air Force 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 56.0% 29.8% 26.2% 11   1.2 1.8 2.6 3.8 4.2 4.7 5.1 5.9 7.6 10.3 8.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 44.0 37.3%
Utah St. 39.0% 18.6% 20.4% 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.1 3.0 3.2 3.9 5.7 8.3 8.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.0 25.1%
Boise St. 36.5% 17.5% 19.0% 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.8 5.5 8.0 7.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 63.5 23.0%
Colorado St. 17.9% 9.5% 8.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.5 2.4 4.3 6.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.1 9.4%
Grand Canyon 15.0% 7.9% 7.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.7 3.7 5.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 85.0 7.7%
New Mexico 10.0% 5.4% 4.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.2 2.7 3.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.0 4.8%
UNLV 10.0% 5.2% 4.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.3 3.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 90.0 5.0%
Nevada 6.7% 4.0% 2.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.5 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.3 2.8%
Wyoming 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9 0.2%
San Jose St. 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1 0.1%
Fresno St. 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5 0.1%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 56.0% 6.4% 53.1% 32.9% 13.5% 5.9% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4%
Utah St. 39.0% 6.5% 35.9% 19.6% 7.0% 2.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Boise St. 36.5% 5.6% 33.8% 17.7% 5.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Colorado St. 17.9% 3.9% 15.9% 6.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 15.0% 3.3% 13.3% 5.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
New Mexico 10.0% 2.1% 8.8% 3.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 10.0% 2.1% 9.0% 3.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 6.7% 1.4% 6.0% 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 1.1% 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.9 31.6 46.5 18.8 3.0 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.8 0.0 38.9 45.6 13.8 1.6 0.0
2nd Round 69.6% 0.9 30.5 49.1 18.2 2.2 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 29.2% 0.3 70.8 26.6 2.5 0.1
Elite Eight 12.6% 0.1 87.4 12.1 0.5
Final Four 4.8% 0.0 95.2 4.8 0.1
Final Game 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9 0.0
Champion 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.7