Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
33 Utah St. 73.0%   11   9 - 1 1 - 0 24 - 6 15 - 5 +13.5      +7.8 37 +5.7 37 69.6 183 +15.5 29 +18.3 3
51 Boise St. 38.2%   7 - 3 0 - 1 20 - 9 13 - 7 +10.1      +3.9 84 +6.2 35 65.6 282 +12.1 47 -6.0 10
52 San Diego St. 27.6%   6 - 4 1 - 0 18 - 11 13 - 7 +9.9      +4.6 70 +5.3 43 68.3 221 +7.4 84 +2.4 6
66 New Mexico 21.6%   9 - 2 1 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 8 +8.2      +3.8 87 +4.5 62 75.6 40 +12.3 46 +9.9 5
87 Grand Canyon 7.9%   8 - 4 1 - 0 19 - 12 12 - 8 +6.6      +1.4 131 +5.1 48 69.5 186 +5.2 98 +22.9 1
89 Nevada 8.0%   9 - 3 1 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +6.2      +4.5 71 +1.8 116 64.4 312 +9.1 67 +22.3 2
91 Colorado St. 7.0%   8 - 3 0 - 1 19 - 11 11 - 9 +6.1      +8.0 34 -1.8 228 60.5 360 +7.6 82 +1.3 7
103 Wyoming 3.5%   8 - 3 0 - 1 18 - 12 10 - 10 +4.7      +2.9 102 +1.8 113 70.3 161 +3.6 120 -11.6 12
133 UNLV 1.1%   5 - 6 1 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 12 +1.7      +1.5 130 +0.3 149 76.1 38 -1.6 190 +10.5 4
184 Fresno St. 0.1%   5 - 6 0 - 1 11 - 19 6 - 14 -1.7      -1.1 198 -0.5 183 71.5 126 -3.3 220 -10.5 11
197 San Jose St. 0.1%   4 - 7 0 - 1 10 - 20 6 - 14 -2.3      +0.2 162 -2.5 255 63.8 325 -3.0 215 -4.0 9
322 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 9 0 - 1 5 - 26 2 - 18 -9.8      -7.1 342 -2.7 264 62.5 343 -10.7 325 -2.3 8




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 51 Boise St. 66 89 Nevada 81   
Sat, Dec 20 87 Grand Canyon 82 103 Wyoming 70   
Sat, Dec 20 2 Arizona 68 52 San Diego St. 45   
Sat, Dec 20 91 Colorado St. 58 33 Utah St. 100   
Sat, Dec 20 184 Fresno St. 72 133 UNLV 84   
Sat, Dec 20 66 New Mexico 88 197 San Jose St. 65   
Mon, Dec 22 87 Grand Canyon 91 354 IU Indianapolis 78   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Utah St. 2.0 55.2 19.9 10.8 6.2 3.6 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Boise St. 4.0 13.6 17.6 16.2 14.1 12.1 9.6 7.5 5.0 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
San Diego St. 3.6 19.5 20.3 16.0 12.7 10.5 8.1 6.0 4.0 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
New Mexico 4.2 12.7 16.2 15.7 14.1 12.4 10.3 8.3 5.6 3.1 1.2 0.3 0.0
Grand Canyon 4.6 8.7 13.2 14.8 14.8 13.9 12.0 9.8 6.9 3.9 1.5 0.4 0.0
Nevada 4.8 7.5 11.8 14.0 14.8 14.0 12.5 10.6 7.6 4.6 2.0 0.6 0.0
Colorado St. 5.5 4.3 8.3 11.1 12.4 13.2 14.1 13.1 10.8 7.7 3.7 1.3 0.1
Wyoming 6.7 1.6 3.6 5.8 7.8 10.3 13.1 15.8 16.8 14.3 7.5 3.1 0.4
UNLV 7.7 0.6 1.8 3.2 4.8 6.8 9.5 12.9 17.5 21.4 14.7 6.3 0.7
Fresno St. 9.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.7 5.0 9.1 16.5 28.6 29.0 6.0
San Jose St. 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.9 8.4 16.1 27.0 31.2 7.2
Air Force 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 5.3 18.8 73.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Utah St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 5.3 9.0 12.5 15.9 17.2 15.7 11.6 5.7 1.7
Boise St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.2 5.9 8.6 12.3 14.8 14.8 14.0 11.1 7.2 3.6 1.3 0.3
San Diego St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.5 7.1 10.4 13.3 14.7 14.2 12.4 9.5 5.9 2.6 0.9 0.2
New Mexico 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 3.6 6.4 9.7 12.5 15.2 14.7 13.1 10.0 6.5 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.0
Grand Canyon 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.8 8.1 11.2 14.3 15.5 14.8 11.7 8.1 4.6 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
Nevada 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 3.0 5.4 8.7 12.3 14.8 15.2 14.2 11.0 7.1 3.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.8 5.0 7.9 11.5 14.2 15.2 13.9 11.4 8.2 4.6 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
Wyoming 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.4 6.0 9.5 13.2 15.2 15.6 13.0 9.9 6.3 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
UNLV 8 - 12 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.3 6.8 11.1 13.7 15.6 14.9 12.3 9.0 5.7 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 6 - 14 0.3 1.4 4.3 8.7 13.7 17.1 16.5 14.0 10.3 6.7 3.9 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 6 - 14 0.3 1.8 5.0 9.6 14.3 16.7 16.7 13.1 9.7 6.3 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Air Force 2 - 18 13.9 24.7 25.2 17.4 10.2 5.0 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah St. 55.2% 42.2 10.3 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Boise St. 13.6% 7.7 4.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
San Diego St. 19.5% 12.1 5.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 12.7% 7.2 4.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Grand Canyon 8.7% 4.6 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nevada 7.5% 3.8 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Colorado St. 4.3% 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 1.6% 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
UNLV 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah St. 73.0% 36.0% 37.0% 11   0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 3.6 5.5 7.2 9.5 13.0 16.2 13.1 0.5 0.0 27.0 57.8%
Boise St. 38.2% 16.2% 22.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.4 6.2 11.0 13.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.8 26.3%
San Diego St. 27.6% 15.7% 11.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.2 7.0 12.5 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.4 14.1%
New Mexico 21.6% 10.2% 11.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.5 5.5 10.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 78.4 12.7%
Grand Canyon 7.9% 6.6% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 4.7 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.1 1.4%
Nevada 8.0% 5.7% 2.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 4.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 92.0 2.5%
Colorado St. 7.0% 5.2% 1.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 4.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 93.0 1.9%
Wyoming 3.5% 3.1% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.5 0.3%
UNLV 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 98.9 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah St. 73.0% 10.0% 68.4% 36.9% 11.1% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Boise St. 38.2% 9.5% 33.2% 13.7% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego St. 27.6% 6.0% 24.7% 9.7% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 21.6% 6.4% 18.0% 6.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 7.9% 0.9% 7.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 8.0% 1.6% 7.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 7.0% 1.4% 6.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 3.5% 0.2% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 1.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.9 30.7 51.8 16.2 1.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.7 0.0 41.0 48.8 9.8 0.4
2nd Round 59.9% 0.7 40.1 48.2 11.1 0.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 17.7% 0.2 82.3 17.1 0.6 0.0
Elite Eight 6.1% 0.1 93.9 6.1 0.0
Final Four 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8 0.0
Final Game 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5 0.0
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.2