Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
39 Utah St. 64.7%   10   14 - 3 6 - 2 +12.8      +8.5 30 +4.3 67 68.6 192 +12.1 47 +9.8 6
46 San Diego St. 43.1%   12 - 5 7 - 1 +11.1      +3.7 88 +7.4 24 70.5 135 +11.3 51 +16.1 1
51 New Mexico 41.4%   14 - 4 6 - 2 +10.8      +3.8 87 +7.0 30 75.7 36 +12.1 48 +11.1 4
66 Boise St. 13.1%   10 - 7 3 - 5 +8.4      +3.3 96 +5.1 50 65.9 268 +8.9 65 +4.9 7
79 Grand Canyon 10.1%   12 - 6 5 - 2 +7.5      +0.9 137 +6.6 31 70.7 133 +8.2 76 +12.9 2
80 Nevada 10.0%   14 - 5 6 - 2 +7.5      +5.0 69 +2.4 105 64.1 308 +9.4 63 +11.4 3
96 Colorado St. 3.0%   11 - 7 3 - 5 +5.4      +6.9 48 -1.4 219 59.8 363 +5.2 94 +2.2 9
108 Wyoming 1.6%   10 - 8 2 - 6 +4.1      +3.3 94 +0.8 140 67.2 231 +1.8 131 -2.3 10
114 UNLV 1.8%   9 - 8 5 - 2 +3.4      +2.0 117 +1.4 124 74.2 53 +3.1 120 +10.2 5
143 Fresno St. 0.4%   8 - 10 3 - 5 +1.0      -2.5 240 +3.5 83 71.6 103 -0.3 167 +3.0 8
238 San Jose St. 0.0%   5 - 13 1 - 7 -4.3      -0.6 181 -3.8 287 62.6 338 -4.5 232 -10.8 12
340 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 16 0 - 8 -11.5      -9.1 357 -2.4 250 63.4 324 -11.7 334 -10.6 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Jan 20 114 UNLV 86 39 Utah St. 76   
Tue, Jan 20 66 Boise St. 81 108 Wyoming 65   
Tue, Jan 20 80 Nevada 87 238 San Jose St. 54   
Tue, Jan 20 340 Air Force 52 96 Colorado St. 81   
Wed, Jan 21 79 Grand Canyon 70 46 San Diego St. 69   
Wed, Jan 21 143 Fresno St. 74 51 New Mexico 83   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 23 96 Colorado St. 72 39 Utah St. 77 67%   
Sat, Jan 24 80 Nevada 71 51 New Mexico 78 73%   
Sat, Jan 24 46 San Diego St. 79 114 UNLV 74 68%   
Sat, Jan 24 143 Fresno St. 69 79 Grand Canyon 72 63%   
Sat, Jan 24 238 San Jose St. 67 108 Wyoming 78 86%   
Sat, Jan 24 340 Air Force 54 66 Boise St. 77 97%   
Tue, Jan 27 79 Grand Canyon 69 80 Nevada 72 61%   
Tue, Jan 27 51 New Mexico 81 114 UNLV 77 66%   
Tue, Jan 27 66 Boise St. 75 238 San Jose St. 65 82%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Utah St. 2.5 33.5 23.9 17.9 12.3 7.4 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.1
San Diego St. 2.1 47.8 24.1 13.6 8.0 3.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1
New Mexico 2.8 26.0 24.3 19.3 14.4 9.4 4.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Boise St. 6.1 0.5 2.2 5.2 10.2 16.0 23.1 20.4 13.6 6.2 2.5 0.1
Grand Canyon 3.6 12.3 18.1 20.6 19.3 14.9 8.2 4.2 1.8 0.6 0.1
Nevada 3.9 9.7 15.5 18.5 19.8 18.2 10.4 5.2 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 7.2 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.4 8.9 17.2 20.9 21.9 15.1 8.4 0.5
Wyoming 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 5.5 11.0 18.3 27.5 31.5 3.1 0.0
UNLV 6.1 1.6 3.3 6.1 9.4 14.3 19.7 20.2 15.4 7.4 2.5 0.1
Fresno St. 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 6.4 11.6 19.5 30.1 27.0 1.6 0.0
San Jose St. 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.5 9.1 82.2 5.2
Air Force 11.9 0.0 0.2 14.1 85.7

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Utah St. 14 - 6 23 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.7 9.6 15.9 21.0 20.9 15.9 7.9 1.9
San Diego St. 15 - 5 20 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.8 11.6 18.2 22.5 19.8 12.9 5.1 1.1
New Mexico 14 - 6 22 - 8 0.1 0.6 2.3 5.7 11.5 18.8 22.2 19.5 12.9 5.4 1.2
Boise St. 11 - 9 18 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 8.1 15.5 21.5 21.9 17.0 8.9 2.9 0.4
Grand Canyon 13 - 7 20 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.1 5.3 11.2 17.6 21.7 19.6 13.5 6.5 1.9 0.3
Nevada 13 - 7 21 - 10 0.1 0.6 2.4 7.0 13.4 20.1 21.9 17.8 10.8 4.7 1.1 0.2
Colorado St. 9 - 11 17 - 13 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.4 8.9 16.1 21.0 21.1 15.7 8.5 3.4 0.9 0.1
Wyoming 8 - 12 16 - 14 0.0 0.2 1.7 6.3 14.5 21.7 22.7 17.5 9.8 4.2 1.3 0.2 0.0
UNLV 11 - 9 15 - 15 0.1 1.0 3.7 9.5 16.6 20.1 19.5 14.8 8.8 4.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Fresno St. 8 - 12 13 - 17 0.1 0.8 4.7 12.7 21.2 23.9 19.0 11.1 4.7 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 4 - 16 8 - 22 5.5 18.0 25.8 23.2 15.1 8.1 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Air Force 1 - 19 4 - 27 33.5 38.4 19.8 6.5 1.5 0.3 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah St. 33.5% 19.9 9.9 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
San Diego St. 47.8% 31.1 12.7 3.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
New Mexico 26.0% 13.9 8.7 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
Boise St. 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 12.3% 5.1 4.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Nevada 9.7% 4.1 3.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0
UNLV 1.6% 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0
San Jose St.
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah St. 64.7% 30.2% 34.5% 10   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 4.2 8.3 13.5 19.3 16.0 0.1 35.3 49.4%
San Diego St. 43.1% 21.4% 21.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 3.2 6.5 13.1 17.8 0.3 56.9 27.6%
New Mexico 41.4% 19.0% 22.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.4 5.9 12.6 18.7 0.3 58.6 27.7%
Boise St. 13.1% 7.5% 5.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.0 7.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.9 6.0%
Grand Canyon 10.1% 7.7% 2.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 7.4 0.8 0.0 90.0 2.5%
Nevada 10.0% 7.7% 2.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 7.3 1.0 0.0 90.0 2.4%
Colorado St. 3.0% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.0 0.2%
Wyoming 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.4 0.0%
UNLV 1.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.2 0.1%
Fresno St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.9 31.0 50.6 17.0 1.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.7 0.0 42.6 47.1 9.7 0.5 0.0
2nd Round 53.4% 0.6 46.6 44.0 9.0 0.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 13.4% 0.1 86.6 12.9 0.5 0.0
Elite Eight 4.0% 0.0 96.0 3.9 0.0
Final Four 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9 0.0
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah St. 64.7% 11.8% 59.3% 27.5% 6.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
San Diego St. 43.1% 10.6% 38.0% 14.9% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
New Mexico 41.4% 12.1% 35.3% 12.9% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Boise St. 13.1% 3.7% 11.0% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 10.1% 1.8% 9.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 10.0% 1.9% 8.8% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 3.0% 0.2% 2.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 1.6% 0.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%