Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
51 Utah St. 43.6%   11   6 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 14 - 6 +10.6      +5.9 57 +4.7 54 69.9 174 +13.4 42 0.0 1
52 San Diego St. 31.6%   4 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 10 14 - 6 +10.0      +5.6 60 +4.4 61 69.3 190 +6.3 96 0.0 1
59 Boise St. 28.8%   4 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 7 +9.3      +2.7 106 +6.6 27 66.3 265 +8.8 73 0.0 1
74 Colorado St. 15.1%   6 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +7.6      +8.0 30 -0.4 180 60.9 357 +6.3 95 0.0 1
94 Grand Canyon 6.5%   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 9 +5.1      -0.1 167 +5.3 45 71.9 124 +1.5 154 0.0 1
103 New Mexico 5.8%   5 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 10 +4.6      +1.2 132 +3.4 75 79.6 12 +6.2 97 0.0 1
105 Nevada 4.4%   6 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 10 - 10 +4.3      +2.4 113 +2.0 111 67.3 250 +5.9 99 0.0 1
106 Wyoming 4.6%   5 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +4.3      +1.2 131 +3.1 85 71.9 123 +3.4 130 0.0 1
131 UNLV 1.9%   3 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 11 +2.0      +2.7 105 -0.7 189 79.1 13 -3.0 210 0.0 1
179 Fresno St. 0.4%   5 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 13 -1.4      -1.6 210 +0.2 161 75.3 47 -2.0 199 0.0 1
185 San Jose St. 0.4%   3 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 19 7 - 13 -1.8      -0.7 184 -1.1 204 64.6 308 -2.6 205 0.0 1
332 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 7 0 - 0 5 - 26 2 - 18 -10.1      -6.4 338 -3.8 302 62.5 348 -10.0 307 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 2 105 Nevada 76 102 UC San Diego 70   
Tue, Dec 2 94 Grand Canyon 67 348 Stetson 45   
Wed, Dec 3 52 San Diego St. 77 90 Utah Valley 66   
Wed, Dec 3 332 Air Force 65 139 Pacific 80   
Thu, Dec 4 79 South Florida 74 51 Utah St. 61   
Fri, Dec 5 262 San Diego 69 185 San Jose St. 86   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 59 Boise St. 71 44 Butler 76 69%   
Sat, Dec 6 64 Colorado 74 74 Colorado St. 76 57%   
Sat, Dec 6 94 Grand Canyon 77 47 Oklahoma St. 83 71%   
Sat, Dec 6 103 New Mexico 79 55 Santa Clara 81 58%   
Sat, Dec 6 22 Arkansas 89 179 Fresno St. 69 95%   
Sat, Dec 6 261 Dartmouth 70 106 Wyoming 83 88%   
Sun, Dec 7 84 Stanford 87 131 UNLV 79 77%   
Sun, Dec 7 105 Nevada 77 158 Washington St. 75 56%   
Sun, Dec 7 186 Charlotte 66 51 Utah St. 76 81%   
Sun, Dec 7 332 Air Force 61 198 Navy 72 84%   
Tue, Dec 9 286 Long Beach St. 66 185 San Jose St. 74 78%   
Tue, Dec 9 276 South Dakota 74 106 Wyoming 87 89%   
Tue, Dec 9 74 Colorado St. 83 261 Dartmouth 67 93%   
Wed, Dec 10 103 New Mexico 73 43 Virginia Commonwealth 83 83%   
Wed, Dec 10 59 Boise St. 79 135 Duquesne 69 84%   
Wed, Dec 10 253 Cal St. Northridge 80 179 Fresno St. 81 53%   
Wed, Dec 10 195 Lamar 61 52 San Diego St. 76 92%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Utah St. 2.9 33.7 21.1 14.6 10.5 7.0 5.2 3.4 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.2
San Diego St. 3.1 29.8 20.9 14.9 11.1 8.1 6.1 4.2 2.5 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
Boise St. 3.6 22.7 18.7 14.8 12.1 9.4 7.8 5.6 4.1 2.8 1.5 0.5 0.0
Colorado St. 4.1 15.4 16.3 16.1 13.6 11.3 9.6 7.1 4.9 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.1
Grand Canyon 5.4 7.3 9.5 10.9 13.0 12.6 12.2 10.6 9.5 7.4 4.6 2.3 0.2
New Mexico 5.9 5.1 7.2 9.8 10.7 11.6 12.1 12.2 11.7 9.1 6.4 3.7 0.4
Nevada 5.9 4.4 7.0 9.4 11.5 12.4 12.8 12.1 11.4 9.2 6.3 3.3 0.3
Wyoming 6.1 4.1 6.8 8.8 10.6 12.2 12.2 12.6 11.9 10.0 7.0 3.4 0.4
UNLV 7.4 1.5 3.1 4.4 6.5 8.7 10.2 12.7 14.6 15.2 13.2 8.9 1.1
Fresno St. 9.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.4 3.9 5.7 7.9 11.3 16.0 21.7 23.8 4.7
San Jose St. 9.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.3 5.1 7.3 10.8 15.4 22.2 25.9 5.8
Air Force 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.5 4.8 16.3 76.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Utah St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 5.0 6.9 9.6 12.6 14.1 14.1 13.1 9.4 6.2 2.6 0.6
San Diego St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.1 5.9 8.0 10.4 12.9 14.5 13.9 12.0 8.5 4.9 2.0 0.5
Boise St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.4 5.2 7.3 9.7 11.6 12.9 13.7 11.8 9.5 6.4 3.6 1.5 0.3
Colorado St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.7 6.5 9.3 11.9 13.2 14.1 13.0 10.3 7.0 4.2 1.9 0.7 0.1
Grand Canyon 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.6 7.8 10.4 13.2 13.2 13.0 11.2 8.5 5.6 3.3 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
New Mexico 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.7 7.3 9.9 12.2 12.7 13.1 11.3 9.6 6.7 4.4 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Nevada 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 4.4 7.2 10.1 12.2 13.9 13.1 11.9 9.6 6.6 3.9 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Wyoming 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 5.2 7.8 10.1 12.3 13.7 13.0 11.8 8.9 6.3 3.5 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
UNLV 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.5 6.3 9.1 12.6 13.5 13.8 12.5 9.9 7.1 4.7 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 7 - 13 0.1 0.9 2.8 5.9 10.0 13.0 14.8 13.8 12.6 9.8 7.0 4.3 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 7 - 13 0.2 1.2 3.3 7.3 10.6 13.2 14.8 14.1 12.1 9.0 6.3 4.0 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Air Force 2 - 18 13.5 23.9 24.4 17.2 11.1 5.7 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah St. 33.7% 23.7 7.9 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
San Diego St. 29.8% 19.9 7.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Boise St. 22.7% 14.9 5.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 15.4% 9.3 4.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Grand Canyon 7.3% 4.0 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1
New Mexico 5.1% 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nevada 4.4% 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 4.1% 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1
UNLV 1.5% 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah St. 43.6% 25.1% 18.5% 11   0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.0 2.8 3.4 5.5 10.1 15.6 1.4 0.1 0.0 56.4 24.7%
San Diego St. 31.6% 22.0% 9.6% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 2.0 3.4 6.7 14.0 2.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.4 12.3%
Boise St. 28.8% 19.0% 9.8% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.9 3.5 5.9 12.1 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 71.2 12.1%
Colorado St. 15.1% 11.8% 3.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.2 8.1 2.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 84.9 3.8%
Grand Canyon 6.5% 6.1% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 2.9 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 93.5 0.4%
New Mexico 5.8% 5.0% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.8 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.2 0.9%
Nevada 4.4% 4.0% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.0 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 95.6 0.4%
Wyoming 4.6% 4.3% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.9 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 95.4 0.3%
UNLV 1.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 98.1 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.6 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah St. 43.6% 8.0% 39.7% 17.8% 4.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
San Diego St. 31.6% 4.7% 29.3% 12.4% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Boise St. 28.8% 4.5% 26.5% 10.8% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Colorado St. 15.1% 2.1% 14.0% 4.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 6.5% 0.3% 6.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 5.8% 0.6% 5.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 4.4% 0.3% 4.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 4.6% 0.3% 4.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 1.9% 0.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 61.3 34.5 4.2 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.3 0.0 69.7 28.0 2.3 0.0
2nd Round 45.3% 0.5 54.7 40.2 4.9 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 12.2% 0.1 87.8 11.9 0.3
Elite Eight 4.0% 0.0 96.0 3.9 0.0
Final Four 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1