San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.3 #238
Expected Predictive Rating -4.5 #232
Pace 62.6 #338
Improvement -2.6 #300

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #181 C C+ C C F
Defense #287 D- F B B C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #318 1.14 #193 -3.5 #297
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #35 0.74 #190 +3.2 #46
Three Pointers 38% #256 1.09 #79 -0.3 #189
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #197 -0.6 #196
Freethrows 17.2 #192 74% #161 12.7 #178
Second Chance 34.5% #70 0.99 #250 0.34 #121
Turnovers 16.4% #171
Total Offense -0.6 #181

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #201 1.31 #331 -2.6 #269
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #243 0.78 #209 +0.7 #140
Three Pointers 44% #104 1.09 #274 -2.9 #298
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #324 -4.8 #323
Freethrows 14.6 #53 75% #278 10.9 #79
Second Chance 34.2% #315 1.25 #354 0.43 #355
Turnovers 18.8% #57
Total Defense -3.8 #287

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #334 0.5% #216
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.9% #147 8.9% #329
Possession Length 19.5 #346 17.5 #218
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #234 0.20 #279
Improvement -0.6 #211 -2.1 #297

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.1% 4.2% 15.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wyoming (Away) - 14.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 111 - 15
Quad 31 - 72 - 22
Quad 46 - 18 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 104 @Utah L 75 - 84 14% -5  0 - 1 -1 +3 C C- C- -5 D D- C+
 Sat, Nov 8 144 @UC Santa Barbara L 74 - 85 22% -9  0 - 2 -7 +8 C- A+ F -17 F F C-
 Thu, Nov 13 11 @Michigan St. L 60 - 79 1% -14  0 - 3 +4 +6 C- B- A+ -3 C+ C- F
 Fri, Nov 21 246 Southern W 80 - 66 63% +8  1 - 3 +6 +6 C B- F +0 C A A-
 Tue, Nov 25 70 Tulsa L 51 - 81 13% -13  1 - 4 -22 -14 F C F -12 F F C
 Wed, Nov 26 268 Loyola Chicago W 63 - 51 57% +1  2 - 4 +6 -1 D+ D- C +10 D- F A+
 Sun, Nov 30 123 UC Irvine L 63 - 72 36% -5  2 - 5 -10 -3 D+ F A- -7 D D- C
 Fri, Dec 5 209 San Diego W 86 - 69 57% +18  3 - 5 +11 +6 A+ A+ F +4 A+ F D
 Tue, Dec 9 250 Long Beach St. W 89 - 83 OT 64% +1  4 - 5 -2 +11 A+ A+ C -13 C F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 77 Stanford L 82 - 86 20% -8  4 - 6 +1 +13 C+ A+ A+ -12 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 51 @New Mexico L 65 - 88 6% -10  4 - 7 0 - 1 -9 +2 C C- C+ -12 F D- C
 Tue, Dec 30 46 San Diego St. L 68 - 81 13% -4  4 - 8 0 - 2 -5 -2 F A+ F -3 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 39 @Utah St. L 78 - 96 4% -1  4 - 9 0 - 3 -2 +18 A+ C A+ -22 F F D-
 Tue, Jan 6 143 Fresno St. L 55 - 70 41% -11  4 - 10 0 - 4 -17 -10 C- F B -8 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 79 @Grand Canyon L 58 - 76 9% -14  4 - 11 0 - 5 -8 -7 C D+ F -1 F F A
 Tue, Jan 13 340 Air Force W 70 - 62 83% +4  5 - 11 1 - 5 -6 +3 C B- C+ -9 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 114 UNLV L 62 - 76 32% -7  5 - 12 1 - 6 -14 +4 B+ D- F -21 F A+ F
 Tue, Jan 20 80 @Nevada L 54 - 87 9% -16  5 - 13 1 - 7 -23 -7 F D- A+ -20 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 108 @Wyoming L 67 - 78 14%
 Tue, Jan 27 66 Boise St. L 65 - 75 19%
 Sat, Jan 31 51 New Mexico L 68 - 80 13%
 Sat, Feb 7 96 @Colorado St. L 64 - 77 12%
 Tue, Feb 10 114 @UNLV L 69 - 80 16%
 Sat, Feb 14 79 Grand Canyon L 66 - 75 21%
 Tue, Feb 17 80 Nevada L 66 - 75 21%
 Sat, Feb 21 66 @Boise St. L 62 - 78 7%
 Tue, Feb 24 340 @Air Force W 68 - 64 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 96 Colorado St. L 67 - 74 26%
 Tue, Mar 3 143 @Fresno St. L 67 - 75 23%
 Sat, Mar 7 108 Wyoming L 70 - 75 30%
Totals 8 - 22 4 - 16 -4 -1 C C+ C -4 D- F B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.6 1.4 0.1 9.1 10th
11th 2.5 15.7 25.5 22.4 12.1 3.4 0.3 0.0 81.8 11th
12th 2.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 5.3 12th
Total 5.2 17.9 25.9 23.3 15.2 7.9 3.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11 0.3% 0.3
8-12 1.0% 1.0
7-13 3.3% 3.3
6-14 7.9% 7.9
5-15 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.2
4-16 23.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 23.3
3-17 25.9% 25.9
2-18 17.9% 17.9
1-19 5.2% 5.2
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.8%