San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.3 236
Expected Predictive Rating -5.7 255
Pace 62.7 330
Improvement -2.2 275

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #189 C- C+ B- C- D-
Defense D+ #281 D+ F+ C+ C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 335 54% 266 -4.9 339
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 33 36% 224 +3.0 48
Three Pointers 39% 230 36% 101 -0.1 181
1st FG Attempt 0.98 237 -2.1 236
Second Chance 32.9% 110 1.02 177 0.34 117
Turnovers 15.7% 103
Freethrows 0.28 257 74% 114 0.21 219
Total Offense -0.9 189

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 120 64% 330 -4.0 315
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 283 39% 197 +1.2 96
Three Pointers 42% 145 34% 190 -0.5 207
1st FG Attempt 1.08 287 -3.2 288
Second Chance 34.6% 322 1.17 341 0.40 348
Turnovers 18.0% 114
Freethrows 0.28 113 75% 317 0.21 155
Total Defense -3.3 281

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.6 340 +0.6 282
Shot Type Accuracy -0.5 189 +2.6 283
Possession Length 19.4 347 17.2 169
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 283 0.20 266
Improvement -1.7 #286 -0.5 #223

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 13% 3% 15%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Home) - 18.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 20 - 110 - 17
Quad 31 - 71 - 23
Quad 46 - 17 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 110 @Utah L 75 - 84 15% -5  11% 0 - 1 C- -2 C +1 C C- C C- -3 D D- C
 Sat, Nov 8 133 @UC Santa Barbara L 74 - 85 20% -9  3% 0 - 2 D+ -6 B +7 C- A+ F F -14 F F C-
 Thu, Nov 13 10 @Michigan St. L 60 - 79 1% -14  0% 0 - 3 C+ +4 C +1 D+ B- A- C+ +1 C+ B- F+
 Fri, Nov 21 264 Southern W 80 - 66 67% +8  90% 1 - 3 B- +5 C +1 C- C+ D- B- +4 C A- B+
 Tue, Nov 25 70 Tulsa L 51 - 81 13% -13  4% 1 - 4 F -22 F -17 F C F+ F+ -9 D- F C
 Wed, Nov 26 277 Loyola Chicago W 63 - 51 59% +1  49% 2 - 4 B- +5 D+ -4 D+ D C+ A +12 C- F A+
 Sun, Nov 30 119 UC Irvine L 63 - 72 34% -5  6% 2 - 5 D -9 D -5 D+ D A- D+ -5 D+ F+ C
 Fri, Dec 5 216 San Diego W 86 - 69 57% +18  98% 3 - 5 B +11 C+ +3 A- A F B+ +7 A+ F D
 Tue, Dec 9 251 Long Beach St. W 89 - 83 OT 64% +1  43% 4 - 5 C- -2 B+ +8 A A C+ F+ -10 C- F A-
 Sat, Dec 13 74 Stanford L 82 - 86 20% -8  0% 4 - 6 C +1 A- +10 B- A+ A+ F+ -9 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 49 @New Mexico L 65 - 88 5% -10  1% 4 - 7 0 - 1 D -9 C- -1 C C- C+ D- -8 F D- C
 Tue, Dec 30 43 San Diego St. L 68 - 81 11% -4  5% 4 - 8 0 - 2 C- -4 D+ -2 F+ A D- C -1 D+ F A
 Sat, Jan 3 35 @Utah St. L 78 - 96 3% -1  51% 4 - 9 0 - 3 C -1 A+ +17 A C A+ F -19 F F D-
 Tue, Jan 6 140 Fresno St. L 55 - 70 40% -11  1% 4 - 10 0 - 4 F+ -17 F -13 C- F+ B D+ -5 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 68 @Grand Canyon L 58 - 76 8% -14  0% 4 - 11 0 - 5 D+ -7 F+ -8 C D+ D+ C+ +1 D- D- B+
 Tue, Jan 13 349 Air Force W 70 - 62 85% +4  89% 5 - 11 1 - 5 D+ -8 C- -1 C- B- C+ D -6 D+ D- A
 Sat, Jan 17 124 UNLV L 62 - 76 37% -7  2% 5 - 12 1 - 6 F+ -15 C- -0 C+ C- D- F -18 F A+ F+
 Tue, Jan 20 66 @Nevada L 54 - 87 8% -16  0% 5 - 13 1 - 7 F -22 F+ -10 F D A+ F -17 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 106 @Wyoming L 62 - 66 14% -3  10% 5 - 14 1 - 8 C+ +3 D+ -4 D F+ A B+ +7 C+ A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 27 58 Boise St. L 58 - 89 16% -9  6% 5 - 15 1 - 9 F -25 F -13 F B- D+ F -14 F F C
 Sat, Jan 31 49 New Mexico L 80 - 90 13% -7  0% 5 - 16 1 - 10 C- -2 A+ +17 B+ A+ A+ F -20 F+ F F
 Sat, Feb 7 103 @Colorado St. L 57 - 65 13% -3  7% 5 - 17 1 - 11 C -0 F -13 F F+ A+ A +13 A+ D- D-
 Tue, Feb 10 124 @UNLV L 75 - 82 19% -4  6% 5 - 18 1 - 12 C- -2 C+ +3 F+ A- A+ D+ -5 C+ D- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 68 Grand Canyon L 65 - 74 19%
 Tue, Feb 17 66 Nevada L 65 - 75 18%
 Sat, Feb 21 58 @Boise St. L 63 - 80 6%
 Tue, Feb 24 349 @Air Force W 70 - 65 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 103 Colorado St. L 66 - 72 29%
 Tue, Mar 3 140 @Fresno St. L 67 - 75 21%
 Sat, Mar 7 106 Wyoming L 69 - 75 29%
Totals 7 - 23 3 - 17 -4 C -1 C- C+ B- D+ -3 D+ F+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C- B- C 32% 29% 39% D- C- C+ C C+ B- D+ B- C- D+ D- C C D+ 41% 17% 42% D+ D+ D D- F+ C+ C+ D C+
1.07 54% 36% 36% -1 -2 0.98 33% 1.0 .34 16% .28 74% .21 1.13 64% 39% 34% +3 +1 1.08 35% 1.2 .40 18% .28 75% .21
Nov
3		 Utah C B- F C C 47% 20% 33% C+ C B- F+ C- C B F D C- F+ A+ F D 45% 14% 41% D+ D F+ C- D- C C- A+ B-
1.07 62% 27% 33% -1 +1 1.02 33% 0.8 .28 16% .30 50% .15 1.20 70% 14% 43% +7 +1 1.20 36% 1.0 .36 16% .32 63% .20
Nov
8		 UC Santa Barbara B C- A+ F C 32% 32% 36% F C- A+ A+ A+ F A A A+ F D+ F F F 37% 22% 41% B- F F D- F C- D- B D
1.18 57% 64% 25% +3 -2 1.05 44% 1.5 .64 22% .43 81% .35 1.36 65% 60% 53% +19 0 1.39 42% 1.1 .46 18% .37 74% .27
Nov
13		 Michigan St. C D+ C F+ C 19% 32% 49% F+ D+ C A+ B- A- B+ D- B- C+ F D- A+ B- 38% 18% 44% D C+ C B B- F+ F+ A- D+
0.91 50% 35% 27% -7 -3 0.81 18% 1.0 .18 14% .31 67% .21 1.19 79% 44% 23% +2 0 1.06 41% 1.0 .41 14% .44 68% .30
Nov
21		 Southern C D C- A+ C+ 30% 36% 34% F C- B+ D C+ D- A+ C A+ B- D+ D+ A C 33% 24% 43% C- C C+ A+ A- B+ A- F B-
1.15 54% 38% 47% +5 -3 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 22% .53 76% .40 0.95 61% 38% 26% -4 -1 0.93 29% 0.7 .21 20% .25 79% .20
Nov
25		 Tulsa F F D C+ F 29% 35% 35% F F B+ F+ C F+ F+ D+ F+ F+ C+ A+ F D- 48% 6% 46% D+ D- C+ F F C A+ C A+
0.83 29% 29% 35% -11 -3 0.75 33% 0.9 .30 20% .20 70% .14 1.32 57% 0% 50% +8 +3 1.23 31% 1.9 .58 15% .19 80% .15
Nov
26		 Loyola Chicago D+ D A+ F D+ 36% 29% 36% D D+ B- F D C+ B F C+ A C- B D+ D+ 34% 17% 49% B+ C- C+ F F A+ B A B+
1.08 50% 62% 25% -1 -1 0.98 33% 0.7 .24 12% .33 71% .23 0.87 58% 33% 35% 0 0 1.03 32% 1.3 .41 36% .27 60% .16
Nov
30		 UC Irvine D F F A C- 31% 31% 38% D- D+ B+ F D A- D+ B+ C- D+ C+ F A C- 55% 24% 22% F D+ D+ F+ F+ C B+ A+ A
0.95 38% 25% 40% -7 -2 0.85 40% 0.5 .21 14% .23 77% .17 1.08 54% 50% 27% -2 +1 1.00 33% 1.3 .42 17% .25 57% .14
Dec
5		 San Diego C+ A A+ A A+ 32% 34% 34% F A- A+ D- A F A+ C- A+ B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 20% 19% 61% B- A+ F D- F D D D+ D
1.18 71% 53% 40% +13 -2 1.23 58% 0.9 .54 30% .53 70% .37 0.95 55% 0% 24% -17 -1 0.67 39% 1.1 .43 15% .27 76% .21
Dec
9		 Long Beach St. B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 28% 36% D A C- A+ A C+ A C- A- F+ D C- A- C 40% 25% 35% D- C- F C F A- B- F C-
1.25 56% 64% 44% +12 -1 1.24 26% 1.9 .48 17% .46 74% .34 1.17 67% 38% 28% 0 0 1.02 50% 1.1 .53 21% .25 86% .21
Dec
13		 Stanford A- A+ C+ D+ B+ 26% 43% 30% F B- B+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ B+ F+ F A+ F F 49% 5% 46% D F F F+ F A+ F C+ F
1.19 71% 39% 31% +3 -4 1.00 33% 1.5 .48 12% .33 90% .29 1.24 72% 0% 53% +18 +3 1.43 60% 1.2 .70 29% .59 72% .43
Dec
20		 New Mexico C- F F A+ C+ 21% 31% 48% F+ C C+ D C- C+ F A- F+ D- F F C+ F 32% 10% 58% C+ F A+ F D- C C F D+
0.95 45% 25% 40% -2 -3 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 19% .18 80% .15 1.29 81% 80% 34% +12 +1 1.28 16% 2.5 .40 15% .31 83% .26
Dec
30		 San Diego St. D+ F B+ F F 32% 21% 47% C F+ B+ A A D- A+ A+ A+ C B C+ F C- 46% 30% 24% C- D+ F F F A F B- F
0.93 40% 40% 23% -13 -1 0.74 33% 1.1 .36 25% .44 92% .40 1.11 57% 36% 55% +6 -1 1.13 39% 1.4 .54 22% .46 73% .33
Jan
3		 Utah St. A+ C F A+ A+ 38% 23% 38% C+ A A- F+ C A+ A A+ A+ F D- F F F 57% 9% 35% D- F D- F F D- F F F
1.21 56% 27% 50% +6 0 1.13 38% 0.8 .31 16% .40 82% .33 1.49 69% 50% 44% +13 +3 1.33 42% 1.7 .71 12% .46 81% .37
Jan
6		 Fresno St. F A+ F D+ C 20% 26% 54% F C- F D+ F+ B F C F D+ D+ F B- D 48% 17% 35% D+ D F C- F A+ C B C+
0.87 100% 8% 30% -3 -2 0.92 18% 1.0 .18 17% .13 71% .10 1.10 64% 50% 31% +3 +1 1.11 42% 1.0 .42 25% .29 71% .21
Jan
10		 Grand Canyon F+ C F C+ C+ 29% 31% 40% D C D+ D+ D+ D+ A- F B- C+ F A B D- 35% 8% 56% D D- C F D- B+ C+ F D+
0.83 54% 29% 33% -4 -2 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 20% .39 64% .25 1.09 82% 25% 30% +4 +1 1.13 33% 1.2 .41 20% .32 83% .27
Jan
13		 Air Force C- C D+ B C- 36% 26% 38% D+ C- C- A B- C+ A+ B A+ D F+ A+ D+ D+ 36% 17% 48% B- D+ F B- D- A D+ F F
1.14 60% 36% 38% +2 -1 1.05 29% 1.3 .36 15% .46 75% .34 1.01 67% 14% 35% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 26% .33 80% .27
Jan
17		 UNLV C- C- F A+ B- 38% 35% 26% F C+ A+ F C- D- A A+ A+ F D F F F 36% 19% 45% C+ F A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ F B
1.10 54% 25% 56% +2 -2 1.03 43% 0.7 .30 21% .47 86% .41 1.35 65% 56% 52% +18 0 1.38 22% 0.4 .09 12% .24 92% .22
Jan
20		 Nevada F+ F D+ F F 28% 28% 44% F+ F C F D A+ C- C- C- F D+ B F F 40% 24% 36% D+ F C- F F F C D C-
0.88 43% 36% 18% -15 -2 0.68 28% 0.9 .25 11% .31 71% .22 1.41 60% 33% 50% +8 0 1.18 35% 1.5 .52 8% .37 81% .30
Jan
24		 Wyoming D+ F D A- C- 27% 23% 50% F D F D+ F+ A F C- F B+ D- F A+ B 59% 8% 33% F C+ C- A+ A+ C+ F F F
0.98 36% 33% 38% -4 -1 0.92 15% 0.8 .13 13% .29 69% .20 1.04 65% 67% 15% -3 +3 1.03 37% 0.2 .07 17% .52 89% .46
Jan
27		 Boise St. F D- F C F+ 24% 33% 43% F+ F C A B- D+ B F C- F F F A+ F+ 74% 2% 24% F F F F F C F+ B+ D+
0.87 50% 25% 33% -7 -3 0.84 22% 1.3 .27 18% .33 56% .18 1.33 71% 100% 27% +8 +5 1.28 45% 1.4 .64 15% .44 72% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 New Mexico A+ C- A+ C+ A 17% 26% 57% D- B+ B A+ A+ A+ D+ C D+ F F A+ F F 50% 13% 37% D+ F+ B- F F F F F F
1.25 56% 57% 33% +4 -2 1.06 32% 1.4 .44 8% .26 73% .19 1.41 70% 17% 47% +10 +2 1.26 28% 1.6 .44 9% .42 88% .36
Feb
7		 Colorado St. F F D+ F F 33% 35% 32% D- F F A+ F+ A+ F A+ D A B- A+ A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% D- A+ C F D- D- D C+ D+
0.87 42% 35% 17% -15 -2 0.68 8% 2.7 .21 6% .18 91% .16 0.99 58% 20% 17% -15 +1 0.75 32% 1.3 .43 15% .36 75% .27
Feb
10		 UNLV C+ F D+ A D 26% 37% 37% F F+ D+ A+ A- A+ D- A C- D+ B F C C+ 41% 20% 39% C C+ D+ D- D- D- C+ C- C
1.11 29% 35% 40% -5 -3 0.85 27% 1.6 .44 10% .33 80% .26 1.21 52% 60% 35% +3 0 1.08 36% 1.0 .36 13% .36 71% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.2 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 6.4 30.1 32.3 19.1 6.8 0.7 95.5 11th
12th 2.5 0.4 0.0 2.9 12th
Total 8.9 30.5 32.3 19.1 7.4 1.6 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 1.6% 1.6
5-15 7.4% 7.4
4-16 19.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.1
3-17 32.3% 32.3
2-18 30.5% 30.5
1-19 8.9% 8.9
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 8.1%