Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#105
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#141
Pace68.0#211
Improvement+1.5#81

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#144
First Shot+1.9#117
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#244
Layup/Dunks+2.2#108
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#148
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#169
Freethrows-1.0#242
Improvement+2.5#32

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#92
First Shot+0.7#150
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#23
Layups/Dunks+1.4#118
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#273
Freethrows-0.1#197
Improvement-1.0#258
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 6.3% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.7 11.3 11.9
.500 or above 61.5% 80.0% 56.8%
.500 or above in Conference 59.1% 78.4% 54.2%
Conference Champion 2.7% 7.2% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.3% 1.4%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round3.9% 6.2% 3.2%
Second Round0.9% 1.7% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Away) - 20.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 6
Quad 23 - 64 - 12
Quad 34 - 38 - 15
Quad 49 - 117 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 277   North Dakota W 82-56 89%     1 - 0 +16.6 -3.1 +18.2
  Nov 08, 2024 315   Tennessee St. W 87-79 OT 92%     2 - 0 -3.7 -3.6 -1.2
  Nov 12, 2024 319   Denver W 74-65 93%     3 - 0 -2.8 -4.3 +1.6
  Nov 16, 2024 27   Mississippi L 69-84 20%     3 - 1 -1.7 +9.3 -12.8
  Nov 22, 2024 170   UC Riverside L 75-77 OT 78%     3 - 2 -5.7 -7.0 +1.5
  Nov 28, 2024 84   Washington L 67-73 41%     3 - 3 +0.8 -0.8 +1.5
  Nov 29, 2024 88   TCU W 76-72 OT 42%     4 - 3 +10.5 +0.7 +9.3
  Dec 04, 2024 181   Loyola Marymount W 83-54 79%     5 - 3 +24.9 +11.9 +13.5
  Dec 07, 2024 75   @ Colorado L 55-72 28%     5 - 4 -6.5 -12.4 +6.1
  Dec 14, 2024 58   Virginia Commonwealth L 68-76 31%     5 - 5 +1.4 +6.4 -5.4
  Dec 17, 2024 203   Radford W 78-68 81%     6 - 5 +5.0 +10.7 -4.4
  Dec 21, 2024 52   @ Nevada L 64-73 20%    
  Dec 28, 2024 70   New Mexico L 77-78 47%    
  Dec 31, 2024 184   @ San Jose St. W 72-69 60%    
  Jan 07, 2025 257   Fresno St. W 79-66 88%    
  Jan 11, 2025 108   UNLV W 70-67 62%    
  Jan 14, 2025 43   @ San Diego St. L 63-73 19%    
  Jan 18, 2025 163   @ Wyoming W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 22, 2025 57   Boise St. L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 25, 2025 257   @ Fresno St. W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 28, 2025 272   Air Force W 72-59 89%    
  Feb 05, 2025 70   @ New Mexico L 74-81 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 43   San Diego St. L 66-70 38%    
  Feb 11, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 15, 2025 163   Wyoming W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 18, 2025 52   Nevada L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 22, 2025 108   @ UNLV L 67-70 41%    
  Feb 25, 2025 272   @ Air Force W 69-62 74%    
  Mar 01, 2025 54   Utah St. L 71-74 41%    
  Mar 04, 2025 184   San Jose St. W 75-66 78%    
  Mar 07, 2025 57   @ Boise St. L 66-74 23%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.1 2.6 0.6 0.0 7.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.5 3.6 0.8 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.9 6.2 4.8 1.0 0.0 15.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.0 7.6 5.2 1.2 0.0 20.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.8 6.7 3.5 0.6 0.0 19.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.8 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.5 4.8 7.6 10.9 13.5 14.3 13.8 11.7 8.6 5.5 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 87.0% 0.5    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 58.7% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.1
15-5 27.3% 0.9    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 51.8% 32.9% 18.8% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 28.1%
17-3 0.5% 29.1% 19.2% 10.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 12.3%
16-4 1.4% 21.2% 17.9% 3.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.1 4.0%
15-5 3.2% 15.5% 15.1% 0.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 2.7 0.5%
14-6 5.5% 9.7% 9.7% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 5.0
13-7 8.6% 7.6% 7.5% 0.0% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 7.9 0.1%
12-8 11.7% 4.9% 4.9% 11.8 0.1 0.4 0.0 11.1
11-9 13.8% 3.2% 3.2% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 13.4
10-10 14.3% 1.9% 1.9% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 14.0
9-11 13.5% 1.4% 1.4% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.3
8-12 10.9% 1.0% 1.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.8
7-13 7.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 7.6
6-14 4.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.8
5-15 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-16 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.9% 3.7% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 96.1 0.2%