Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#53
Expected Predictive Rating+10.3#57
Pace65.6#248
Improvement+8.9#3

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#45
First Shot+6.9#33
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#222
Layup/Dunks+5.6#23
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#123
Freethrows-0.5#209
Improvement+8.1#1

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#70
First Shot+1.7#116
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#15
Layups/Dunks+0.5#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#48
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#239
Freethrows+0.5#151
Improvement+0.8#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.1% 41.4% 14.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.9% 20.2% 14.2%
Average Seed 10.7 10.7 11.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.8% 12.7% 13.2%
First Round26.3% 34.6% 7.0%
Second Round8.5% 11.2% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 2.5% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 5
Quad 27 - 28 - 8
Quad 35 - 213 - 10
Quad 410 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 264   North Dakota W 82-56 95%     1 - 0 +17.6 -3.4 +19.5
  Nov 08, 2024 260   Tennessee St. W 87-79 OT 95%     2 - 0 -0.2 -1.8 +0.4
  Nov 12, 2024 302   Denver W 74-65 97%     3 - 0 -1.9 -1.7 -0.1
  Nov 16, 2024 29   Mississippi L 69-84 37%     3 - 1 -0.7 +10.7 -13.2
  Nov 22, 2024 142   UC Riverside L 75-77 OT 88%     3 - 2 -3.7 -7.2 +3.6
  Nov 28, 2024 104   Washington L 67-73 74%     3 - 3 -2.1 -3.6 +1.5
  Nov 29, 2024 77   TCU W 76-72 OT 63%     4 - 3 +11.4 +1.1 +9.9
  Dec 04, 2024 157   Loyola Marymount W 83-54 89%     5 - 3 +26.5 +12.4 +14.6
  Dec 07, 2024 85   @ Colorado L 55-72 55%     5 - 4 -7.6 -11.7 +4.3
  Dec 14, 2024 35   Virginia Commonwealth L 68-76 39%     5 - 5 +5.6 +6.0 -0.9
  Dec 17, 2024 169   Radford W 78-68 90%     6 - 5 +6.7 +10.6 -2.7
  Dec 21, 2024 83   @ Nevada W 66-64 55%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +11.4 +4.2 +7.5
  Dec 28, 2024 41   New Mexico L 68-76 54%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +1.8 +3.5 -1.8
  Dec 31, 2024 156   @ San Jose St. W 72-50 77%     8 - 6 2 - 1 +25.0 -1.4 +26.1
  Jan 07, 2025 258   Fresno St. W 91-64 95%     9 - 6 3 - 1 +19.0 +13.0 +5.2
  Jan 11, 2025 92   UNLV W 84-62 78%     10 - 6 4 - 1 +24.8 +21.7 +5.0
  Jan 14, 2025 54   @ San Diego St. L 60-75 40%     10 - 7 4 - 2 -1.5 -0.5 -1.6
  Jan 18, 2025 176   @ Wyoming W 79-63 80%     11 - 7 5 - 2 +17.9 +15.9 +3.4
  Jan 22, 2025 52   Boise St. W 75-72 60%     12 - 7 6 - 2 +11.1 +14.2 -2.7
  Jan 25, 2025 258   @ Fresno St. W 69-64 89%     13 - 7 7 - 2 +2.5 +5.4 -2.3
  Jan 28, 2025 300   Air Force W 79-58 97%     14 - 7 8 - 2 +10.3 +7.8 +4.1
  Feb 05, 2025 41   @ New Mexico L 65-87 33%     14 - 8 8 - 3 -6.6 +5.8 -13.9
  Feb 08, 2025 54   San Diego St. W 68-63 61%     15 - 8 9 - 3 +13.0 +13.4 +0.4
  Feb 11, 2025 55   @ Utah St. L 85-93 40%     15 - 9 9 - 4 +5.4 +16.8 -11.6
  Feb 15, 2025 176   Wyoming W 88-53 90%     16 - 9 10 - 4 +31.3 +24.5 +10.8
  Feb 18, 2025 83   Nevada W 79-71 74%     17 - 9 11 - 4 +11.9 +13.5 -1.0
  Feb 22, 2025 92   @ UNLV W 61-53 59%     18 - 9 12 - 4 +16.3 +0.3 +16.8
  Feb 25, 2025 300   @ Air Force W 77-55 92%     19 - 9 13 - 4 +16.8 +6.2 +11.6
  Mar 01, 2025 55   Utah St. W 93-66 61%     20 - 9 14 - 4 +34.9 +29.7 +8.1
  Mar 04, 2025 156   San Jose St. W 83-56 89%     21 - 9 15 - 4 +24.5 +11.1 +14.4
  Mar 07, 2025 52   @ Boise St. W 83-73 39%     22 - 9 16 - 4 +23.6 +24.3 +0.3
Projected Record 22 - 9 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0%
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 33.1% 18.5% 14.6% 10.7 0.2 1.7 7.8 20.8 2.7 66.9 17.9%
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 33.1% 18.5% 14.6% 10.7 0.2 1.7 7.8 20.8 2.7 66.9 17.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 18.5% 100.0% 10.5 0.9 8.7 35.7 51.8 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 20.8% 29.6% 10.9 0.2 4.2 22.6 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 30.5% 13.7% 11.2 0.4 10.3 3.0
Lose Out 30.3% 14.2% 11.1 0.7 11.1 2.4