South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#189
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#211
Pace70.0#121
Improvement+0.5#174

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#241
First Shot-0.3#176
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#311
Layup/Dunks+0.3#169
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#229
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#224
Freethrows+1.7#83
Improvement-2.4#295

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#141
First Shot+1.1#137
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#198
Layups/Dunks-1.0#212
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#42
Freethrows-1.4#279
Improvement+3.0#47
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 1.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 1.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.6% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 9
Quad 33 - 83 - 17
Quad 49 - 212 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 3   Florida L 83-98 2%     0 - 1 +8.5 +12.6 -2.8
  Nov 08, 2024 148   @ College of Charleston L 71-86 31%     0 - 2 -11.4 -9.0 -0.3
  Nov 12, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-69 96%     1 - 2 -5.2 +0.6 -5.9
  Nov 15, 2024 348   West Georgia W 74-55 90%     2 - 2 +3.5 -0.6 +5.5
  Nov 21, 2024 273   Portland W 74-68 68%     3 - 2 -0.3 -5.5 +5.1
  Nov 22, 2024 118   Middle Tennessee L 88-95 33%     3 - 3 -4.0 +16.1 -20.1
  Nov 24, 2024 229   Wright St. W 73-72 58%     4 - 3 -2.7 -4.2 +1.5
  Dec 03, 2024 350   Stetson W 74-72 90%     5 - 3 -13.8 -9.2 -4.7
  Dec 07, 2024 109   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-74 22%     5 - 4 +4.5 +3.2 +1.3
  Dec 14, 2024 55   @ Utah St. L 67-88 9%     5 - 5 -7.6 -4.7 -2.6
  Dec 18, 2024 289   Bethune-Cookman L 69-77 79%     5 - 6 -18.2 -4.1 -14.4
  Dec 21, 2024 335   Texas A&M - Commerce W 88-62 88%     6 - 6 +11.9 +8.1 +3.2
  Dec 31, 2024 163   East Carolina W 75-69 55%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +3.1 -2.8 +5.6
  Jan 06, 2025 126   @ Wichita St. W 91-72 27%     8 - 6 2 - 0 +23.8 +20.3 +3.2
  Jan 11, 2025 141   @ Tulane L 70-73 30%     8 - 7 2 - 1 +0.8 +7.2 -6.7
  Jan 15, 2025 108   UAB L 83-92 40%     8 - 8 2 - 2 -8.0 +8.5 -16.8
  Jan 18, 2025 250   Tulsa W 63-56 72%     9 - 8 3 - 2 -0.6 -11.0 +10.6
  Jan 22, 2025 243   @ Charlotte L 61-69 51%     9 - 9 3 - 3 -9.8 -11.5 +1.3
  Jan 25, 2025 163   @ East Carolina L 55-64 34%     9 - 10 3 - 4 -6.4 -11.0 +3.6
  Jan 28, 2025 191   Rice W 69-64 61%     10 - 10 4 - 4 +0.6 -6.1 +6.8
  Feb 02, 2025 107   @ Florida Atlantic L 72-94 22%     10 - 11 4 - 5 -15.4 -1.5 -13.4
  Feb 06, 2025 155   Temple W 100-91 2OT 54%     11 - 11 5 - 5 +6.5 +5.3 -0.4
  Feb 09, 2025 126   Wichita St. L 70-75 47%     11 - 12 5 - 6 -5.7 -1.9 -3.8
  Feb 13, 2025 50   Memphis L 65-80 18%     11 - 13 5 - 7 -6.7 -8.9 +3.7
  Feb 16, 2025 108   @ UAB L 78-85 22%     11 - 14 5 - 8 -0.5 +2.9 -3.3
  Feb 19, 2025 184   @ Texas San Antonio W 78-73 39%     12 - 14 6 - 8 +6.4 -1.1 +7.1
  Feb 23, 2025 79   North Texas L 57-64 28%     12 - 15 6 - 9 -2.5 -5.4 +2.2
  Feb 26, 2025 155   @ Temple L 71-73 33%     12 - 16 6 - 10 +1.0 +5.8 -5.0
  Mar 02, 2025 107   Florida Atlantic L 63-69 40%     12 - 17 6 - 11 -4.9 -11.4 +6.5
  Mar 07, 2025 50   @ Memphis L 68-84 8%     12 - 18 6 - 12 -2.2 +2.6 -4.6
  Mar 13, 2025 126   Wichita St. L 70-74 36%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 100.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.4 99.6
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.4%
Lose Out 63.9%