South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +10.4 54
Results Rating +8.9 66
Consistency 0.13 81
Pace 76.8 18
Improvement +2.8 79

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 69 C- A B- A- A
Defense B 45 B- B- B+ C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 15 D+ 55% 265 +3.0 75
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 358 C- 36% 255 -5.1 361
Three Pointers 46% 84 D+ 32% 268 +1.2 144
Shot Selection/Accuracy A +2.1 5 D+ -2.9 279
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 202
Second Chance A- 38.7% 12 B 1.15 43 A 0.44 9
Opponents' Steals B- 8.3% 74
Other Turnovers C+ 7.0% 149
Turnovers B- 15.3% 97
Freethrows A- 0.37 15 B- 75% 113 A- 0.28 14
Total Offense B +5.2 69

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B- 53% 104 D+ 12.3% 261
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 247 F 10.1% 357
Three Pointers B+ 92% 17 C 1.0% 223
Total B+ 64% 35 D 6.9% 319


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 284 B 52% 45 -4.2 54
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 75 C+ 36% 111 +0.8 251
Three Pointers 41% 159 C- 35% 230 +0.8 230
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.6 71 B- -1.9 107
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 96
Second Chance C+ 29.2% 142 B 0.95 63 B- 0.28 85
Turnovers from Steals B+ 11.7% 41
Other Turnovers B- 8.0% 87
Turnovers B+ 19.7% 32
Freethrows C- 0.32 219 B+ 69% 38 C 0.22 187
Total Defense B +5.2 45

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 229 B 15.2% 45
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 215 C- 3.7% 247
Three Pointers C 84% 172 B 1.6% 57
Total C- 57% 216 B- 6.9% 82

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.3 26 17.4 195
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 68 0.13 61
Consistency 0.11 102 0.12 192
Improvement -0.4 207 +3.3 39

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Longshot
Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 64 55 47
Results Rating Rank 78 66 47
Conference Record 14 - 4 15 - 3 15 - 3
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 10
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45% 48% 40%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7% 9% 3%
Average Seed 11.0 10.9 11.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four4% 5% 2%
First Round43% 45% 39%
Second Round12% 14% 10%
Sweet Sixteen3% 3% 2%
Elite Eight0% 1% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 65.7% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 2
Quad 25 - 47 - 6
Quad 39 - 316 - 9
Quad 47 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 315 Florida A&M W 102 - 67 97% +15  76% 1 - 0 A +22 A- +10 C+ A C- A- +8 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 8 78 George Washington L 95 - 99 61% -1  42% 1 - 1 C+ +4 C+ +4 F A+ A- C+ +1 D B A+
 Wed, Nov 12 363 Coppin St. W 100 - 50 99% +28  96% 2 - 1 A+ +29 A+ +18 C+ A+ B+ A+ +11 A+ D A-
 Sun, Nov 16 157 @Kennesaw St. W 108 - 89 76% +9  98% 3 - 1 A +22 A+ +20 C+ A+ A C -0 A- F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 64 @Oklahoma St. L 95 - 103 44% -2  28% 3 - 2 C+ +4 A- +10 A+ C+ C- D+ -5 F C+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 49 Virginia Commonwealth L 66 - 78 47% -3  34% 3 - 3 C -1 D- -7 F C- A A- +7 A B+ C
 Thu, Nov 27 130 Western Kentucky W 97 - 91 OT 79% -5  18% 4 - 3 B- +8 C +1 D+ C+ B- B+ +5 D+ C A+
 Fri, Nov 28 92 Colorado St. L 68 - 83 66% -8  9% 4 - 4 D -9 D- -7 F B B C- -3 F B+ A-
 Thu, Dec 4 41 Utah St. W 74 - 61 52% +15  96% 5 - 4 A +23 C +1 B- C+ D- A+ +22 A+ A+ A
 Wed, Dec 10 143 College of Charleston W 81 - 75 87% +2  67% 6 - 4 C+ +4 B +7 C- A B- C- -3 B+ C- B
 Wed, Dec 17 15 @Alabama L 93 - 104 15% -8  2% 6 - 5 B +11 A +13 C A+ F C -1 B- D+ A
 Sun, Dec 21 194 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 94 - 69 92% +15  97% 7 - 5 A +20 A +13 B+ A+ B B+ +6 B+ D+ A
 Sun, Jan 4 123 UAB L 106 - 109 2OT 84% +3  70% 7 - 6 0 - 1 C- -3 C+ +3 C+ B B D -5 C A+ F+
 Wed, Jan 7 134 @North Texas W 74 - 70 71% +0  47% 8 - 6 1 - 1 B +9 B +7 C- A+ D- B- +2 D C+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 65 @Tulsa W 93 - 78 44% +8  88% 9 - 6 2 - 1 A+ +27 A+ +16 A- A+ C+ A +11 A A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 233 East Carolina W 82 - 71 94% +11  99% 10 - 6 3 - 1 C+ +4 C -0 C- F A+ B- +3 B- B D
 Sun, Jan 18 91 Wichita St. L 85 - 86 OT 76% -1  52% 10 - 7 3 - 2 C+ +2 B- +5 C B- B C- -2 D A C
 Thu, Jan 22 123 @UAB W 82 - 69 67% +8  95% 11 - 7 4 - 2 A +19 B- +5 C A+ F A+ +13 A+ D- B-
 Sun, Jan 25 126 Florida Atlantic W 89 - 75 84% +2  45% 12 - 7 5 - 2 B+ +14 A +13 F+ A+ B C+ +0 A+ D- D-
 Wed, Jan 28 184 @Tulane W 97 - 83 80% +11  89% 13 - 7 6 - 2 A- +15 A+ +16 D+ A+ A C -1 F A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 166 @Temple L 78 - 79 77% -3  22% 13 - 8 6 - 3 C +1 C +1 D+ A+ F C+ +1 B+ F B+
 Wed, Feb 4 334 Texas San Antonio W 109 - 88 98% +6  77% 14 - 8 7 - 3 B- +6 A+ +25 A- A+ A+ F -19 F F B-
 Sun, Feb 8 65 Tulsa W 80 - 74 67% +6  97% 15 - 8 8 - 3 B+ +12 B +6 C+ F A+ B+ +6 A+ F A+
 Wed, Feb 11 91 @Wichita St. W 66 - 58 55% -2  27% 16 - 8 9 - 3 A- +17 D+ -3 C A F A+ +21 A+ A+ A-
 Sun, Feb 15 126 @Florida Atlantic W 83 - 81 OT 68% -0  30% 17 - 8 10 - 3 B- +8 B- +4 D+ A- B+ B- +3 C+ B- F+
 Thu, Feb 19 119 Memphis W 87 - 66 84% +11  82% 18 - 8 11 - 3 A +21 A +14 C- A- A+ B+ +6 A A+ C
 Wed, Feb 25 222 @Rice W 75 - 56 85% +12  100% 19 - 8 12 - 3 A +18 C- -2 F C B- A+ +20 D+ A+ A+
 Sun, Mar 1 184 Tulane W 90 - 62 91% +10  92% 20 - 8 13 - 3 A+ +23 B+ +9 C B A A+ +13 B+ B A+
 Thu, Mar 5 119 @Memphis W 80 - 76 66%
 Sun, Mar 8 169 Charlotte W 84 - 70 91%
Totals 22 - 8 15 - 3 +10 B +5 B D+ A B +5 D+ B- A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B D+ C- D+ D+ 46% 16% 46% A C- A- B A B- A- B- A- B B C+ C- B- 35% 24% 41% B- B- C+ B B- B+ C- B+ C
1.16 55% 36% 32% -3 +2 1.00 39% 1.1 .44 15% .37 75% .28 1.01 52% 36% 35% -2 -1 0.97 29% 1.0 .28 20% .32 69% .26
Nov
3		 Florida A&M A- D F A D+ 55% 2% 43% A+ C+ A+ C- A C- A+ A A+ A- C- A+ A+ A+ 42% 17% 40% F+ A+ C F F A F D+ F
1.27 54% 0% 41% +1 +4 1.12 49% 0.9 .46 19% .61 85% .52 0.84 59% 11% 14% -16 +1 0.71 28% 1.3 .35 26% .44 69% .30
Nov
8		 George Washington C+ C+ C- F F 46% 5% 49% A F A- A+ A+ A- A+ C+ A+ C+ C F D- D 53% 4% 43% D- D B- B B A+ F C F
1.12 62% 33% 14% -13 +2 0.81 36% 1.6 .57 14% .51 73% .37 1.16 62% 100% 38% +7 +3 1.22 34% 1.0 .34 25% .64 73% .47
Nov
12		 Coppin St. A+ A+ A+ F C+ 30% 7% 63% C+ C+ A+ B A+ B+ A F B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 27% 23% D- A+ D+ D D A- F D- F
1.46 81% 100% 29% +7 +1 1.19 56% 1.3 .69 13% .45 67% .30 0.73 36% 17% 20% -21 0 0.59 31% 1.1 .33 26% .43 73% .32
Nov
16		 Kennesaw St. A+ D+ D B+ C- 60% 6% 35% A+ C+ A A+ A+ A A+ A- A+ C C+ A+ A+ A 52% 5% 43% F A- F C F C+ F B+ F
1.36 52% 33% 39% -2 +3 1.06 39% 1.3 .50 11% .65 83% .54 1.12 55% 0% 25% -9 +3 0.89 46% 1.0 .44 18% .59 64% .38
Nov
19		 Oklahoma St. A- A F A+ A+ 33% 4% 63% B+ A+ A- F C+ C- A+ D- A+ D+ F+ F F F 53% 16% 31% C+ F D+ B C+ A+ D- A+ C+
1.16 67% 0% 41% +8 +2 1.22 35% 0.9 .33 18% .45 67% .30 1.26 69% 56% 53% +17 +2 1.40 34% 0.9 .31 23% .41 62% .25
Nov
26		 Virginia Commonwealth D- D+ F F F 64% 11% 25% A+ F C D+ C- A B- F D+ A- A D B+ A 37% 25% 38% A+ A D A+ B+ C F B- F
0.91 50% 0% 14% -17 +3 0.75 30% 0.9 .27 12% .32 60% .19 1.08 47% 46% 30% -4 -1 0.92 38% 0.8 .31 15% .52 72% .37
Nov
27		 Western Kentucky C F F B D- 47% 13% 40% A D+ B C- C+ B- F+ A D+ B+ C+ C- D+ D- 31% 29% 40% A+ D+ A F C A+ F+ A D+
1.06 47% 22% 37% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .29 16% .34 77% .26 1.00 53% 39% 36% 0 -2 0.98 23% 1.3 .30 21% .39 68% .26
Nov
28		 Colorado St. D- F F F F 40% 12% 47% A- F B- B- B B D- B- D C- B- D F F 41% 15% 43% D+ F A+ F B+ A- A+ A+ A+
0.99 48% 0% 26% -15 +1 0.75 30% 1.2 .37 13% .23 71% .17 1.21 58% 43% 70% +24 +1 1.52 14% 2.0 .29 22% .22 58% .13
Dec
4		 Utah St. C D- A+ C+ C+ 48% 7% 45% A+ B- C- B C+ D- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ B- A- A+ 37% 24% 39% A+ A+ A A+ A+ A B+ B+ B+
1.05 48% 67% 35% -2 +2 1.02 29% 1.1 .32 24% .60 75% .45 0.86 42% 33% 30% -9 0 0.82 28% 0.8 .21 20% .26 67% .18
Dec
10		 College of Charleston B C+ A+ F D 44% 8% 48% A+ C- A+ C A B- A+ C- A+ C- A+ A+ C- A 42% 12% 46% F B+ F A C- B F D- F
1.18 61% 50% 24% -5 +2 0.96 46% 1.0 .43 13% .38 70% .27 1.09 45% 17% 33% -8 +1 0.88 40% 0.9 .35 19% .45 80% .36
Dec
17		 Alabama A F A+ D+ D+ 38% 15% 47% A C A+ A- A+ F A+ A+ A+ C A+ F F C+ 29% 22% 49% A+ B- F A+ D+ A F D- F
1.18 38% 50% 31% -8 +1 0.87 50% 1.2 .58 19% .53 79% .42 1.32 38% 67% 41% +5 -1 1.11 49% 0.9 .44 18% .54 83% .45
Dec
21		 Maryland Baltimore Co. A C F A B- 54% 4% 42% A+ B+ B+ A+ A+ B B C+ B B+ B D+ A+ B+ 35% 35% 30% A B+ C- D- D+ A C C C
1.29 58% 0% 42% +3 +3 1.16 34% 1.5 .51 11% .28 72% .20 0.94 53% 42% 25% -5 -2 0.89 24% 1.1 .26 21% .28 75% .21
Jan
4		 UAB C+ C- D+ C+ C 39% 9% 52% A- C+ B B- B B A+ F A+ D C- A+ F C+ 51% 28% 20% C C A+ A+ A+ F+ F C- F
1.10 58% 33% 34% 0 +2 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 14% .43 64% .28 1.13 61% 14% 40% -4 0 0.95 21% 0.8 .16 8% .48 72% .35
Jan
7		 North Texas B C F F D 50% 11% 39% A+ C- A- A+ A+ D- A+ B A+ B- D+ B- D- F+ 46% 26% 28% B+ D B- C C+ B D+ A+ A
1.08 58% 25% 27% -6 +2 0.95 39% 1.5 .58 25% .70 75% .53 1.02 61% 31% 36% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 19% .36 45% .16
Jan
10		 Tulsa A+ B- F B+ B+ 29% 2% 70% A- A- A B+ A+ C+ B D B- A B+ F A+ A 37% 12% 51% B A A+ A+ A+ B+ F C F
1.27 63% 0% 38% +5 +2 1.16 36% 1.3 .46 15% .31 68% .21 1.06 50% 80% 27% -3 +1 0.98 18% 0.8 .15 18% .65 79% .51
Jan
14		 East Carolina C F F A- D 40% 11% 49% A- C- D F F A+ A+ B- A+ B- C A B- C+ 35% 30% 35% B- B- A+ F B D D- A+ C
1.11 48% 17% 39% -3 +1 1.00 26% 0.5 .14 9% .39 77% .30 0.96 55% 29% 30% -6 -1 0.88 23% 1.2 .28 15% .40 60% .24
Jan
18		 Wichita St. B- F F A+ D+ 42% 16% 42% A C B+ D B- B B+ A A C- A+ A+ F D 41% 20% 39% C- D C- A+ A C D+ A C+
1.11 42% 22% 42% -5 +1 0.95 34% 0.9 .30 14% .33 77% .26 1.12 42% 25% 52% +1 0 1.05 41% 0.7 .30 14% .35 61% .21
Jan
22		 UAB B- F A+ A- D+ 39% 4% 57% A C A+ A A+ F A+ F B+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ 37% 29% 35% B+ A+ F C+ D- B- F+ F F
1.08 38% 50% 39% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.1 .43 21% .35 62% .22 0.91 39% 28% 18% -18 -1 0.63 40% 1.0 .38 13% .38 84% .32
Jan
25		 Florida Atlantic A C F F F 55% 8% 37% A F+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ C- A+ C+ C B- A+ A 22% 43% 35% A+ A+ D+ D- D- D- C- D+ D+
1.26 56% 25% 17% -12 +3 0.84 51% 1.4 .71 14% .51 71% .36 1.06 58% 39% 21% -6 -4 0.81 35% 1.2 .42 14% .31 74% .23
Jan
28		 Tulane A+ B- D F D 44% 12% 44% B+ D+ A A+ A+ A A+ C A+ C F C- F F 29% 14% 57% C F C+ A+ A+ C- C A+ B
1.28 61% 33% 26% -5 +2 0.96 44% 1.6 .69 13% .53 71% .38 1.10 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 21% 0.1 .03 15% .37 67% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Temple C C A F D- 45% 10% 45% A- D+ C A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ F+ A- A B 28% 25% 47% B+ B+ F+ F F B+ A F B
1.09 58% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 30% 1.6 .48 25% .58 87% .51 1.11 67% 31% 28% -4 -1 0.92 35% 1.5 .54 17% .29 82% .24
Feb
4		 Texas San Antonio A+ B+ A+ C B+ 52% 5% 43% A+ A- A A+ A+ A+ A D+ B+ F B+ F F F 38% 22% 40% C+ F C F F B- D- B+ D+
1.54 68% 67% 35% +7 +3 1.22 47% 1.5 .71 7% .35 70% .24 1.24 47% 55% 55% +12 0 1.26 30% 1.4 .43 18% .31 67% .21
Feb
8		 Tulsa B B A+ F C- 43% 6% 51% A C+ B F F A+ A+ B+ A+ B+ A+ A C A+ 22% 14% 63% A+ A+ F D- F A+ C A+ A-
1.17 64% 67% 27% -1 +2 1.04 31% 0.5 .15 10% .49 77% .37 1.08 36% 29% 35% -5 0 0.92 40% 1.4 .55 20% .33 61% .20
Feb
11		 Wichita St. D+ D+ A F D+ 48% 18% 34% A C A+ C+ A F A+ F A+ A+ B B A+ A+ 27% 29% 44% A A+ A- A+ A+ A- C C+ C+
0.95 52% 50% 27% -4 +1 0.95 39% 1.0 .39 26% .54 61% .33 0.84 50% 33% 22% -12 -2 0.75 33% 0.5 .18 19% .32 67% .21
Feb
15		 Florida Atlantic B- F F A+ F+ 64% 2% 34% A+ D+ B- A A- B+ D F F+ B- D B+ C C 33% 28% 39% A C+ A+ F B- F+ A+ C+ A
1.08 38% 0% 43% -9 +4 0.93 30% 1.2 .37 13% .26 65% .17 1.06 65% 35% 33% +1 -1 1.02 24% 1.3 .32 13% .20 69% .14
Feb
19		 Memphis A F B+ B- D+ 40% 14% 46% B+ C- A+ D+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ D+ C A+ 31% 29% 40% B+ A C A+ A+ C D- D+ D-
1.24 40% 43% 35% -6 +1 0.92 50% 0.8 .41 14% .58 86% .50 0.94 25% 40% 33% -10 -2 0.79 36% 0.7 .26 19% .35 75% .26
Feb
25		 Rice C- F F D+ F 33% 24% 44% B- F B- D C B- C- A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ F D+ 22% 24% 54% C- D+ A A+ A+ A+ F+ C- D-
1.08 50% 23% 33% -7 -1 0.87 35% 0.9 .33 14% .32 89% .29 0.81 33% 30% 45% +2 -2 1.02 26% 0.4 .12 33% .37 71% .26
Mar
1		 Tulane B+ B- D F+ D+ 51% 5% 44% A+ C B B- B A A A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ B+ B+ 18% 18% 64% A- B+ B- B+ B A+ F A+ D-
1.24 61% 33% 29% -2 +3 1.04 38% 1.1 .40 12% .39 84% .33 0.85 63% 25% 29% -7 -1 0.86 20% 1.0 .20 25% .49 67% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 3.4 36.6 60.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 3.4 36.6 60.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 60.0    60.0
14-4 100.0% 36.6    36.6
13-5 100.0% 3.4    0.2 1.3 1.9
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 96.9 1.3 1.9



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 60.0% 48.8% 43.4% 5.4% 10.9 0.1 0.5 4.3 22.6 1.9 30.7 9.6%
14-4 36.6% 40.5% 38.2% 2.3% 11.2 0.0 0.5 11.4 2.9 0.0 21.8 3.7%
13-5 3.4% 31.8% 31.2% 0.6% 11.3 0.8 0.3 2.3 0.9%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 45.2% 41.0% 4.1% 11.0 54.8 7.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 26.0% 100.0% 10.9 0.3 1.7 15.8 75.6 6.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 14.1% 11.5% 11.0 0.0 0.6 9.9 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.6% 8.8% 11.0 0.5 8.0 0.4
Lose Out 0.6%