South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +8.7 62
Expected Predictive Rating +7.6 76
Pace 77.2 18
Improvement +1.1 136

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B #69 C A B- A- A
Defense B- #75 C+ C+ B C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% 21 56% 228 +3.2 80
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% 359 37% 215 -5.0 360
Three Pointers 47% 63 32% 276 +1.2 138
1st FG Attempt 1.01 195 -0.6 193
Second Chance 38.7% 15 1.17 35 0.45 9
Turnovers 15.8% 111
Freethrows 0.38 8 73% 144 0.28 13
Total Offense +5.1 69

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 275 53% 56 +3.5 68
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 65 37% 144 -1.1 275
Three Pointers 40% 203 35% 234 -0.3 199
1st FG Attempt 0.98 109 +2.1 110
Second Chance 30.1% 163 0.98 103 0.29 123
Turnovers 19.3% 51
Freethrows 0.32 236 69% 42 0.22 199
Total Defense +3.6 75

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +2.1 6 -0.7 69
Shot Type Accuracy -2.6 269 -1.4 126
Possession Length 15.2 18 17.4 195
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 66 0.14 67
Improvement -0.2 #197 +1.4 #112

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33% 36% 28%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3% 4% 1%
Average Seed 11.0 10.9 11.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 72% 84% 55%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 3% 1%
First Round32% 35% 27%
Second Round7% 8% 5%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Away) - 59.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 2
Quad 24 - 47 - 6
Quad 37 - 414 - 10
Quad 48 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 328 Florida A&M W 102 - 67 97% +15  76% 1 - 0 A +21 B+ +9 C A C A- +8 A+ F A-
 Sat, Nov 8 84 George Washington L 95 - 99 58% -1  42% 1 - 1 C+ +3 C+ +3 F A+ A- C -0 D- B A+
 Wed, Nov 12 364 Coppin St. W 100 - 50 99% +28  96% 2 - 1 A+ +27 A+ +16 C A+ A- A +12 A+ D B+
 Sun, Nov 16 154 @Kennesaw St. W 108 - 89 71% +9  98% 3 - 1 A +22 A+ +21 B- A+ A C -1 B F C
 Wed, Nov 19 59 @Oklahoma St. L 95 - 103 37% -2  28% 3 - 2 C+ +4 A- +11 A+ C+ C D -5 F C A+
 Wed, Nov 26 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 66 - 78 41% -3  34% 3 - 3 C -1 D- -8 F C- A B+ +7 A B+ C
 Thu, Nov 27 160 Western Kentucky W 97 - 91 OT 80% -5  18% 4 - 3 B- +6 C +1 D B- B- B- +4 D C A+
 Fri, Nov 28 103 Colorado St. L 68 - 83 65% -8  9% 4 - 4 D -10 D- -6 F B B D+ -4 F B B+
 Thu, Dec 4 35 Utah St. W 74 - 61 40% +15  96% 5 - 4 A+ +24 C+ +2 B C+ D- A+ +22 A+ A+ A
 Wed, Dec 10 156 College of Charleston W 81 - 75 86% +2  67% 6 - 4 C+ +3 B +6 C- A C+ C- -3 B+ D+ B-
 Wed, Dec 17 17 @Alabama L 93 - 104 12% -8  2% 6 - 5 B +10 A +13 C- A+ F C- -2 B- D+ A
 Sun, Dec 21 259 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 94 - 69 94% +15  97% 7 - 5 A- +16 A- +10 B- A+ B B +5 B+ D A
 Sun, Jan 4 118 UAB L 106 - 109 2OT 80% +3  70% 7 - 6 0 - 1 C- -3 C+ +2 C+ B B D+ -4 C A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 7 144 @North Texas W 74 - 70 67% +0  47% 8 - 6 1 - 1 B +8 B+ +8 C A+ D C+ +1 D C C+
 Sat, Jan 10 70 @Tulsa W 93 - 78 41% +8  88% 9 - 6 2 - 1 A+ +26 A+ +15 A- A+ C+ A +10 A A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 252 East Carolina W 82 - 71 93% +11  99% 10 - 6 3 - 1 C+ +3 C- -0 C- F A+ B- +3 C+ B- D
 Sun, Jan 18 96 Wichita St. L 85 - 86 OT 73% -1  52% 10 - 7 3 - 2 C +1 B- +5 C C+ B+ C- -3 D A C-
 Thu, Jan 22 118 @UAB W 82 - 69 61% +8  95% 11 - 7 4 - 2 A +19 B- +4 C A+ F A+ +14 A+ D+ B-
 Sun, Jan 25 114 Florida Atlantic W 89 - 75 79% +2  45% 12 - 7 5 - 2 B+ +14 A +13 F+ A+ B C+ +1 A+ D+ F+
 Wed, Jan 28 174 @Tulane W 97 - 83 74% +11  89% 13 - 7 6 - 2 A- +16 A+ +16 D+ A+ A C -1 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 148 @Temple L 78 - 79 68% -3  22% 13 - 8 6 - 3 C+ +3 C +1 D+ A+ F C+ +1 B F B+
 Wed, Feb 4 350 Texas San Antonio W 109 - 88 98% +6  77% 14 - 8 7 - 3 B- +5 A+ +25 A- A+ A+ F -20 F F C+
 Sun, Feb 8 70 Tulsa W 80 - 74 64% +6  97% 15 - 8 8 - 3 B +11 B- +5 C+ F A+ B +6 A+ F A
 Wed, Feb 11 96 @Wichita St. W 66 - 58 51% -2  27% 16 - 8 9 - 3 A- +16 D+ -4 C A- F A+ +20 A+ A+ A-
 Sun, Feb 15 114 @Florida Atlantic W 84 - 81 60%
 Thu, Feb 19 86 Memphis W 81 - 76 70%
 Wed, Feb 25 220 @Rice W 83 - 74 80%
 Sun, Mar 1 174 Tulane W 85 - 72 88%
 Thu, Mar 5 86 @Memphis L 78 - 79 47%
 Sun, Mar 8 168 Charlotte W 83 - 71 87%
Totals 20 - 10 13 - 5 +9 B +5 C A B- B- +4 C+ C+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C- C- D+ D+ 46% 8% 47% A C A- B+ A B- A- C+ A- B- B C+ C- C+ 36% 24% 40% B- C+ C C+ C+ B C- B C
1.16 56% 37% 32% -3 +2 1.01 39% 1.2 .45 16% .38 73% .28 1.04 53% 37% 35% -1 -1 0.98 30% 1.0 .29 19% .32 69% .26
Nov
3		 Florida A&M B+ D F A- D+ 55% 2% 43% A+ C A+ C A C A+ A A+ A- C- A+ A+ A+ 42% 17% 40% F+ A+ C F F A- F D+ F
1.27 54% 0% 41% +1 +4 1.12 49% 0.9 .46 19% .61 85% .52 0.84 59% 11% 14% -16 +1 0.71 28% 1.3 .35 26% .44 69% .30
Nov
8		 George Washington C+ C+ C- F F 46% 5% 49% A+ F B+ A+ A+ A- A+ B- A+ C C- F D- D- 53% 4% 43% D- D- B- B B A+ F C F
1.12 62% 33% 14% -13 +2 0.81 36% 1.6 .57 14% .51 73% .37 1.16 62% 100% 38% +7 +3 1.22 34% 1.0 .34 25% .64 73% .47
Nov
12		 Coppin St. A+ A+ A+ F C 30% 7% 63% B- C A+ B+ A+ A- A F B- A A+ A+ A+ A+ 50% 27% 23% D- A+ D+ D- D B+ F D F
1.46 81% 100% 29% +7 +1 1.19 56% 1.3 .69 13% .45 67% .30 0.73 36% 17% 20% -21 0 0.59 31% 1.1 .33 26% .43 73% .32
Nov
16		 Kennesaw St. A+ C- D+ B+ C 60% 6% 35% A+ B- A- A+ A+ A A+ A A+ C C+ A+ A+ A- 52% 5% 43% F B F C F C F A- F
1.36 52% 33% 39% -1 +3 1.06 39% 1.3 .50 11% .65 83% .54 1.12 55% 0% 25% -9 +3 0.89 46% 1.0 .44 18% .59 64% .38
Nov
19		 Oklahoma St. A- A- F A+ A+ 33% 4% 63% B+ A+ B+ D- C+ C A+ D A+ D F+ F F F 53% 16% 31% C+ F D+ B C A+ F+ A+ C
1.16 67% 0% 41% +8 +2 1.22 35% 0.9 .33 18% .45 67% .30 1.26 69% 56% 53% +17 +2 1.40 34% 0.9 .31 23% .41 62% .25
Nov
26		 Virginia Commonwealth D- D+ F F F 64% 11% 25% A+ F C C- C- A C+ F D+ B+ A D- B+ A 37% 25% 38% A+ A D A+ B+ C F C+ F
0.91 50% 0% 14% -17 +3 0.75 30% 0.9 .27 12% .32 60% .19 1.08 47% 46% 30% -4 -1 0.92 38% 0.8 .31 15% .52 72% .37
Nov
27		 Western Kentucky C F+ F B- F+ 47% 13% 40% A D B C+ B- B- D A C- B- C D+ D+ F+ 31% 29% 40% A D A+ F C A+ F B+ D-
1.06 47% 22% 37% -5 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .29 16% .34 77% .26 1.00 53% 39% 36% 0 -2 0.98 23% 1.3 .30 21% .39 68% .26
Nov
28		 Colorado St. D- F F F F 40% 12% 47% A- F B- B- B B D B D+ D+ B- D- F F 41% 15% 43% D+ F A+ F B B+ A A+ A+
0.99 48% 0% 26% -14 +1 0.75 30% 1.2 .37 13% .23 71% .17 1.21 58% 43% 70% +24 +1 1.52 14% 2.0 .29 22% .22 58% .13
Dec
4		 Utah St. C+ D- A+ B- C+ 48% 7% 45% A+ B C- B C+ D- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ B B+ A+ 37% 24% 39% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A B+ B+ B+
1.05 48% 67% 35% -2 +2 1.02 29% 1.1 .32 24% .60 75% .45 0.86 42% 33% 30% -9 0 0.82 28% 0.8 .21 20% .26 67% .18
Dec
10		 College of Charleston B C+ A+ F D 44% 8% 48% A+ C- A+ C- A C+ A+ C A+ C- A+ A+ C- A 42% 12% 46% F B+ F A- D+ B- F D- F
1.18 61% 50% 24% -5 +2 0.96 46% 1.0 .43 13% .38 70% .27 1.09 45% 17% 33% -8 +1 0.88 40% 0.9 .35 19% .45 80% .36
Dec
17		 Alabama A F A+ D+ D+ 38% 15% 47% A- C- A+ A A+ F A+ A+ A+ C- A+ F F C 29% 22% 49% A+ B- F A+ D+ A F F+ F
1.18 38% 50% 31% -8 +1 0.87 50% 1.2 .58 19% .53 79% .42 1.32 38% 67% 41% +5 -1 1.11 49% 0.9 .44 18% .54 83% .45
Dec
21		 Maryland Baltimore Co. A- C- F A C 54% 4% 42% A+ B- B A+ A+ B B+ B B+ B B D A+ B 35% 35% 30% A B+ D+ D- D A C C- C-
1.29 58% 0% 42% +4 +3 1.16 34% 1.5 .51 11% .28 72% .20 0.94 53% 42% 25% -4 -2 0.89 24% 1.1 .26 21% .28 75% .21
Jan
4		 UAB C+ C- C- C+ C 39% 9% 52% A- C+ B B- B B A+ F A+ D+ C- A+ F C 51% 28% 20% C C A+ A+ A+ D- F C- F
1.10 58% 33% 34% 0 +2 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 14% .43 64% .28 1.13 61% 14% 40% -4 0 0.95 21% 0.8 .16 8% .48 72% .35
Jan
7		 North Texas B+ C+ F F+ C- 50% 11% 39% A C B+ A+ A+ D A+ B A+ C+ D+ B- D- F+ 46% 26% 28% B+ D C+ C- C C+ D+ A+ A
1.08 58% 25% 27% -6 +2 0.95 39% 1.5 .58 25% .70 75% .53 1.02 61% 31% 36% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 19% .36 45% .16
Jan
10		 Tulsa A+ B- F B+ A- 29% 2% 70% A- A- A A- A+ C+ B- D- C+ A B+ F A+ A 37% 12% 51% B A A+ A+ A+ B F C F
1.27 63% 0% 38% +5 +2 1.16 36% 1.3 .46 15% .31 68% .21 1.06 50% 80% 27% -3 +1 0.98 18% 0.8 .15 18% .65 79% .51
Jan
14		 East Carolina C- F+ F B+ D 40% 11% 49% A- C- D F F A+ A+ B A+ B- C B+ B- C 35% 30% 35% B+ C+ A+ F B- D D- A+ C
1.11 48% 17% 39% -2 +1 1.00 26% 0.5 .14 9% .39 77% .30 0.96 55% 29% 30% -6 -1 0.88 23% 1.2 .28 15% .40 60% .24
Jan
18		 Wichita St. B- F F A+ D+ 42% 16% 42% A C B+ D+ C+ B+ B+ A A- C- A+ A+ F D 41% 20% 39% C D C- A+ A C- D A- C
1.11 42% 22% 42% -4 +1 0.95 34% 0.9 .30 14% .33 77% .26 1.12 42% 25% 52% +1 0 1.05 41% 0.7 .30 14% .35 61% .21
Jan
22		 UAB B- F A+ A- D+ 39% 4% 57% A C A+ A A+ F A F B A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 37% 29% 35% B+ A+ F B D+ B- F+ F F
1.08 38% 50% 39% -3 +2 1.00 38% 1.1 .43 21% .35 62% .22 0.91 39% 28% 18% -18 -1 0.63 40% 1.0 .38 13% .38 84% .32
Jan
25		 Florida Atlantic A C F F F 55% 8% 37% A F+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ C- A+ C+ C B A+ A 22% 43% 35% A+ A+ C- D D+ F+ C D+ C-
1.26 56% 25% 17% -12 +3 0.84 51% 1.4 .71 14% .51 71% .36 1.06 58% 39% 21% -6 -4 0.81 35% 1.2 .42 14% .31 74% .23
Jan
28		 Tulane A+ B- D F D- 44% 12% 44% A- D+ A A+ A+ A A+ C+ A+ C F+ C F F 29% 14% 57% C F C+ A+ A+ C C+ A+ B+
1.28 61% 33% 26% -4 +2 0.96 44% 1.6 .69 13% .53 71% .38 1.10 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 21% 0.1 .03 15% .37 67% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Temple C C A F D 45% 10% 45% A- D+ C A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ F+ A- A- B 28% 25% 47% A- B F+ F F B+ A D- B+
1.09 58% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 30% 1.6 .48 25% .58 87% .51 1.11 67% 31% 28% -3 -1 0.92 35% 1.5 .54 17% .29 82% .24
Feb
4		 Texas San Antonio A+ A- A+ C B+ 52% 5% 43% A A- A A+ A+ A+ A D+ B+ F B F F F 38% 22% 40% C F C F F C+ D- B D+
1.54 68% 67% 35% +7 +3 1.22 47% 1.5 .71 7% .35 70% .24 1.24 47% 55% 55% +12 0 1.26 30% 1.4 .43 18% .31 67% .21
Feb
8		 Tulsa B- B A+ F C 43% 6% 51% A C+ B F F A+ A+ B A+ B A+ A C A 22% 14% 63% A+ A+ F D F A C A+ A
1.17 64% 67% 27% -1 +2 1.04 31% 0.5 .15 10% .49 77% .37 1.08 36% 29% 35% -5 0 0.92 40% 1.4 .55 20% .33 61% .20
Feb
11		 Wichita St. D+ D+ A+ F C- 48% 18% 34% A C A C+ A- F A+ F A+ A+ B B A+ A+ 27% 29% 44% A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A- C- C+ C
0.95 52% 50% 27% -4 +1 0.95 39% 1.0 .39 26% .54 61% .33 0.84 50% 33% 22% -12 -2 0.75 33% 0.5 .18 19% .32 67% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.9 23.4 32.1 13.9 72.4 1st
2nd 0.4 8.6 8.0 17.0 2nd
3rd 1.7 5.0 0.2 6.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 0.3 2.4 4th
5th 0.3 0.6 0.8 5th
6th 0.3 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.8 4.7 16.8 31.7 32.1 13.9 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 13.9    13.9
14-4 100.0% 32.1    24.7 7.4
13-5 73.9% 23.4    6.9 12.0 4.3 0.2
12-6 17.0% 2.9    0.1 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 72.4% 72.4 45.6 20.2 5.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 13.9% 46.3% 38.9% 7.5% 10.6 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.2 0.1 7.5 12.2%
14-4 32.1% 36.9% 35.0% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 0.7 10.0 1.2 20.3 3.1%
13-5 31.7% 30.1% 29.2% 0.9% 11.2 0.2 7.3 2.0 22.1 1.3%
12-6 16.8% 24.9% 24.5% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 2.9 1.3 12.6 0.6%
11-7 4.7% 16.1% 16.1% 11.4 0.4 0.3 3.9
10-8 0.8% 18.7% 18.7% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.6
9-9 0.1% 0.0 0.1
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 33.0% 30.9% 2.1% 11.0 67.1 3.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.4% 100.0% 10.5 1.7 8.7 29.0 59.8 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.6% 12.7% 10.8 0.4 1.9 10.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9% 9.5% 10.9 1.4 8.2