Evansville
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.1 #271
Expected Predictive Rating -7.7 #290
Pace 68.8 #185
Improvement -0.2 #198

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #329 D+ D F C- D-
Defense #159 C- C C C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #332 1.24 #95 -2.5 #273
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #72 0.73 #205 +1.9 #85
Three Pointers 42% #166 0.88 #331 -2.4 #271
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #261 -3.0 #261
Freethrows 16.6 #230 73% #190 12.0 #212
Second Chance 23.6% #339 1.11 #95 0.26 #292
Turnovers 19.7% #343
Total Offense -6.4 #329

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #235 1.14 #162 +1.4 #131
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #80 0.87 #328 -2.6 #341
Three Pointers 40% #222 1.06 #243 -0.3 #190
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #225 -1.5 #226
Freethrows 16.1 #124 72% #164 11.7 #120
Second Chance 30.6% #187 1.02 #155 0.31 #166
Turnovers 16.9% #155
Total Defense +0.2 #159

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #319 -1.1% #86
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.5% #228 4.0% #256
Possession Length 17.9 #235 15.5 #6
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #313 0.21 #309
Improvement -2.6 #316 +2.3 #53

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 87.8% 77.3% 93.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 34.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 70 - 9
Quad 33 - 133 - 22
Quad 43 - 26 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 5 @Purdue L 51 - 82 1% -18  0 - 1 -7 -6 F A+ C+ -5 D+ A- C-
 Wed, Nov 12 128 Middle Tennessee L 72 - 77 31% -8  0 - 2 -6 -1 B+ F D+ -5 D- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 156 Texas Arlington L 76 - 84 37% -3  0 - 3 -11 +7 C A+ C -18 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 195 Oregon St. W 73 - 69 35% +4  1 - 3 +2 +1 D+ B- F +1 A+ F B
 Sun, Nov 23 64 Akron L 59 - 97 9% -13  1 - 4 -29 -13 F B F -16 D- F B
 Mon, Nov 24 164 College of Charleston L 59 - 78 29% -12  1 - 5 -19 -15 F F D+ -5 D- C+ C+
 Wed, Dec 3 296 Ball St. W 64 - 52 67% +1  2 - 5 +1 -11 F F F +13 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 162 @Western Kentucky L 79 - 80 20% -3  2 - 6 +2 +5 B B+ F -3 F A A+
 Sat, Dec 13 84 @Notre Dame L 58 - 82 7% -11  2 - 7 -14 -6 B- D- F -9 F A B
 Tue, Dec 16 82 Belmont L 78 - 83 17% -7  2 - 8 0 - 1 -1 -1 C F B- +0 A- A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 158 Drake L 65 - 66 38% -2  2 - 9 0 - 2 -4 -4 F A F +0 C C+ A
 Mon, Dec 29 119 @Bradley L 68 - 76 14% +2  2 - 10 0 - 3 -2 -1 F C+ A+ -2 C+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 90 @Illinois St. L 47 - 73 8% -14  2 - 11 0 - 4 -17 -22 F F F +6 B- A+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 110 Northern Iowa L 48 - 62 25% -12  2 - 12 0 - 5 -13 -15 D+ F F -0 F B A+
 Wed, Jan 7 97 Murray St. L 69 - 79 21% -4  2 - 13 0 - 6 -8 -7 B+ F F -1 B+ C F
 Sat, Jan 10 188 @Indiana St. W 72 - 69 24% +0  3 - 13 1 - 6 +4 -2 A F F +6 A+ F D
 Tue, Jan 13 119 Bradley L 90 - 94 OT 29% +3  3 - 14 1 - 7 -4 +10 A+ C C+ -14 F B F
 Tue, Jan 20 151 @Illinois-Chicago L 49 - 76 18% -13  3 - 15 1 - 8 -23 -18 F F F -6 F C F
 Sun, Jan 25 146 Southern Illinois L 68 - 72 35%
 Wed, Jan 28 158 @Drake L 65 - 74 19%
 Sat, Jan 31 110 @Northern Iowa L 54 - 67 12%
 Tue, Feb 3 188 Indiana St. L 72 - 73 45%
 Fri, Feb 6 167 @Valparaiso L 63 - 71 22%
 Mon, Feb 9 90 Illinois St. L 64 - 74 19%
 Thu, Feb 12 146 @Southern Illinois L 65 - 75 18%
 Wed, Feb 18 151 Illinois-Chicago L 66 - 70 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 97 @Murray St. L 71 - 85 9%
 Wed, Feb 25 82 @Belmont L 66 - 82 6%
 Sat, Feb 28 167 Valparaiso L 66 - 68 41%
Totals 6 - 23 4 - 16 -6 -6 D+ D F +0 C- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 4.2 7.0 3.8 0.5 0.0 16.6 10th
11th 6.5 17.9 25.0 18.8 7.5 1.1 0.0 76.7 11th
Total 6.5 18.0 26.0 23.0 15.2 7.3 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11 0.2% 0.2
8-12 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
7-13 2.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.9
6-14 7.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.3
5-15 15.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.2
4-16 23.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.0
3-17 26.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 26.0
2-18 18.0% 18.0
1-19 6.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.5
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.4%