Evansville
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#290
Expected Predictive Rating-9.9#318
Pace70.0#153
Improvement-0.9#246

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#299
First Shot+0.9#155
After Offensive Rebound-5.4#363
Layup/Dunks+0.2#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#175
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#99
Freethrows-1.7#278
Improvement-3.0#349

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#245
First Shot-2.2#247
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#208
Layups/Dunks-0.7#194
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#297
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#186
Freethrows-0.1#194
Improvement+2.1#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 3.9% 5.3% 2.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 52.9% 47.0% 56.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Away) - 38.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 32 - 113 - 19
Quad 45 - 58 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 80   @ North Texas L 63-80 7%     0 - 1 -7.0 +3.5 -12.0
  Nov 13, 2024 131   @ Middle Tennessee L 63-80 14%     0 - 2 -12.3 -9.7 -1.7
  Nov 16, 2024 204   Radford L 81-92 43%     0 - 3 -16.0 +12.9 -30.0
  Nov 19, 2024 38   @ Ohio St. L 30-80 3%     0 - 4 -35.3 -35.2 -1.9
  Nov 22, 2024 333   Green Bay W 98-81 73%     1 - 4 +3.8 +4.0 -2.5
  Nov 24, 2024 295   Campbell W 66-53 63%     2 - 4 +2.8 -6.4 +10.1
  Dec 03, 2024 124   @ Murray St. L 61-63 13%     2 - 5 0 - 1 +3.4 -4.1 +7.3
  Dec 07, 2024 105   Western Kentucky L 65-79 22%     2 - 6 -12.6 -5.9 -6.5
  Dec 12, 2024 183   Chattanooga L 67-75 39%     2 - 7 -12.1 -6.4 -6.1
  Dec 18, 2024 145   @ Texas Arlington L 54-80 17%     2 - 8 -22.5 -16.0 -8.1
  Dec 21, 2024 288   @ Ball St. L 70-73 39%    
  Dec 29, 2024 194   Missouri St. L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 01, 2025 168   @ Southern Illinois L 66-75 20%    
  Jan 04, 2025 150   Indiana St. L 77-81 35%    
  Jan 08, 2025 153   Illinois St. L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 67   @ Drake L 56-74 5%    
  Jan 14, 2025 98   @ Northern Iowa L 63-78 8%    
  Jan 18, 2025 133   Belmont L 76-82 31%    
  Jan 22, 2025 199   Illinois-Chicago L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 25, 2025 226   @ Valparaiso L 71-77 28%    
  Jan 29, 2025 124   Murray St. L 66-72 29%    
  Feb 02, 2025 133   @ Belmont L 73-85 15%    
  Feb 05, 2025 168   Southern Illinois L 69-72 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 79   Bradley L 66-77 16%    
  Feb 12, 2025 194   @ Missouri St. L 66-74 23%    
  Feb 16, 2025 226   Valparaiso L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 19, 2025 150   @ Indiana St. L 74-84 18%    
  Feb 22, 2025 199   @ Illinois-Chicago L 70-78 23%    
  Feb 26, 2025 67   Drake L 59-71 14%    
  Mar 02, 2025 153   @ Illinois St. L 65-75 18%    
Projected Record 7 - 23 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.6 0.8 0.1 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 4.1 5.8 3.0 0.3 0.0 14.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.7 6.6 7.8 3.9 0.5 0.0 22.0 11th
12th 1.4 5.2 9.3 11.5 8.7 3.7 0.5 0.0 40.4 12th
Total 1.4 5.2 9.8 14.3 16.1 16.1 13.0 10.0 6.2 4.0 2.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 0.0%
14-6 12.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 14.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-9 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.9
10-10 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
9-11 4.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.0
8-12 6.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.2
7-13 10.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.0
6-14 13.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.0
5-15 16.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.1
4-16 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.1
3-17 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.3
2-18 9.8% 9.8
1-19 5.2% 5.2
0-20 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%