Evansville
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.9#230
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#221
Pace66.9#222
Improvement+5.5#11

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#304
First Shot-0.5#191
After Offensive Rebound-4.4#358
Layup/Dunks+0.2#177
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#184
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#145
Freethrows-1.4#272
Improvement+1.5#100

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#145
First Shot+0.6#161
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#140
Layups/Dunks-0.3#177
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#244
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#163
Freethrows+0.7#129
Improvement+4.0#21
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 0.4% 0.7% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 27.4% 40.6% 13.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Home) - 51.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 35 - 86 - 16
Quad 45 - 511 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 70   @ North Texas L 63-80 10%     0 - 1 -6.7 +3.8 -12.0
  Nov 13, 2024 120   @ Middle Tennessee L 63-80 20%     0 - 2 -12.2 -9.6 -1.8
  Nov 16, 2024 204   Radford L 81-92 53%     0 - 3 -15.6 +12.1 -28.9
  Nov 19, 2024 25   @ Ohio St. L 30-80 4%     0 - 4 -32.9 -33.2 -1.5
  Nov 22, 2024 347   Green Bay W 98-81 84%     1 - 4 +2.5 +3.3 -3.1
  Nov 24, 2024 178   Campbell W 66-53 47%     2 - 4 +9.7 -2.3 +12.8
  Dec 03, 2024 171   @ Murray St. L 61-63 28%     2 - 5 0 - 1 +0.2 -6.2 +6.3
  Dec 07, 2024 115   Western Kentucky L 65-79 34%     2 - 6 -13.6 -6.0 -7.4
  Dec 12, 2024 138   Chattanooga L 67-75 39%     2 - 7 -9.1 -5.2 -4.3
  Dec 18, 2024 200   @ Texas Arlington L 54-80 33%     2 - 8 -25.3 -17.2 -9.7
  Dec 21, 2024 255   @ Ball St. L 43-80 46%     2 - 9 -40.0 -29.5 -13.8
  Dec 29, 2024 223   Missouri St. W 57-40 58%     3 - 9 1 - 1 +11.1 -10.5 +23.9
  Jan 01, 2025 183   @ Southern Illinois W 68-53 30%     4 - 9 2 - 1 +16.3 -0.9 +17.9
  Jan 04, 2025 210   Indiana St. L 62-66 54%     4 - 10 2 - 2 -9.1 -13.7 +4.6
  Jan 08, 2025 135   Illinois St. W 69-51 39%     5 - 10 3 - 2 +17.0 +1.7 +17.8
  Jan 11, 2025 73   @ Drake L 40-63 10%     5 - 11 3 - 3 -12.9 -18.7 +0.4
  Jan 14, 2025 108   @ Northern Iowa L 56-73 16%     5 - 12 3 - 4 -10.5 -15.9 +5.8
  Jan 18, 2025 140   Belmont L 82-85 39%     5 - 13 3 - 5 -4.2 +5.9 -10.2
  Jan 22, 2025 123   Illinois-Chicago L 67-78 36%     5 - 14 3 - 6 -11.4 -3.7 -8.3
  Jan 25, 2025 226   @ Valparaiso W 78-68 39%     6 - 14 4 - 6 +9.0 -0.4 +8.9
  Jan 29, 2025 171   Murray St. W 78-74 45%     7 - 14 5 - 6 +1.3 +12.6 -10.9
  Feb 02, 2025 140   @ Belmont W 80-75 23%     8 - 14 6 - 6 +8.8 +10.5 -1.4
  Feb 05, 2025 183   Southern Illinois L 69-70 51%    
  Feb 08, 2025 94   Bradley L 64-71 27%    
  Feb 12, 2025 223   @ Missouri St. L 63-66 37%    
  Feb 16, 2025 226   Valparaiso W 72-70 60%    
  Feb 19, 2025 210   @ Indiana St. L 73-77 34%    
  Feb 22, 2025 123   @ Illinois-Chicago L 67-76 19%    
  Feb 26, 2025 73   Drake L 57-66 21%    
  Mar 02, 2025 135   @ Illinois St. L 65-73 22%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.0 0.1 3.6 4th
5th 0.3 3.7 3.5 0.4 7.9 5th
6th 0.1 5.2 9.0 1.5 15.8 6th
7th 2.9 12.0 3.7 0.2 18.8 7th
8th 0.7 11.2 7.7 0.5 20.1 8th
9th 0.1 6.2 10.2 1.0 17.5 9th
10th 2.0 7.7 2.1 0.0 11.8 10th
11th 1.9 1.2 0.0 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 4.1 15.8 26.6 26.2 17.4 7.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 25.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.4
12-8 2.1% 2.9% 2.9% 15.2 0.1 0.0 2.0
11-9 7.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 7.4
10-10 17.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 17.3
9-11 26.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 26.1
8-12 26.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 26.5
7-13 15.8% 15.8
6-14 4.1% 4.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.1%